Some developments at ECMWF during 2005

3 October 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana 1

Some developments at ECMWFduring 2005

Mariano Hortal

ECMWF


Overview

• New PBL scheme

• Wavelet Jb in 4D-Var

• TL799L91 in preoperational mode

• TL2047


Is there any skill in cloud forecasts?

( )1

( )

RMSE forecastSKILL

RMSE persistence


ECMWF PBL parameterization (- 2004)(similar at NCAR, NCEP, Arpege, DWD,…)

moist mass-flux convection

dry K diffusion PBL


PBL cloud unification – an MK approachMartin Köhler, ECMWF

key ingredients:

• moist conserved variables

• combined Mass-flux/K-diffusion solver

• cloud variability

• transition between stratocumulus and shallow convection


A statistical mass flux framework for organized updrafts

PDF of {w, qt ,ql }

Mass flux

Top % of updrafts that are explicitly modelled

K diffusion

{w, qt ,ql }


improved marine stratocumulus (MK PBL-old)

T511 time=10d

n=140

old: CY28R4 new MK PBL


Peruvian stratocumulus: model column vs EPIC observations


European Stratus in December 2004


Wavelet Jb

• Wavelet Jb defines the analysis’ “change-of-variable” and the background cost function as:

– Index j denotes “scale” (wavenumber band).

– The functions Ψj are localized spatially, and in wavenumber.

– The Vj are block-diagonal, with vertical covariance matrix blocks, and one block per gridpoint.

• Convolution with Ψj limits the influence of Vj to a band of wavenumbers and to nearby gridpoints.

• The result is a covariance model that allows both spatial and spectral variation of covariances.

T

1 1

1and

2

K K

b j j j b j jj j

J

x x Ψ V χ χ χ


Wavelet Jb – 2D Example

• As an example, we illustrate a 2D covariance model on the sphere: approximately-Gaussian structure functions with spatially-varying length scale (300km – 1300km).

• The rows of the covariance matrix can be shown by plotting Bx, with x a set of delta functions.

• For the wavelet Jb covariance model, we have:

2j j j

j

Bx Ψ Ψ x


Wavelet Jb – 2D Example

• The prescribed length scales are:

1299998.1299996.

300000. 300007.

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E

ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa specific humidity

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000


Wavelet Jb:

Ψ̂ j

0 .0 00 03 4

0 .0 00 03 4

0 .0 00 03 5

0 .0 00 03 5

0 .0 00 03 5

0 .0 00 03 5

0 .0 00 03 5

0 .0 00 03 5

0 .0 00 03 5

0 .0 00 03 5

80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


-0.3 10- 5

-0.2 10- 5

-0.2 10 - 5

-0.2 10 - 5

-0.1 10- 5

-0.8 10- 6

-0.4 10- 6

0.4 10- 6

0.4 10- 6

80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


-0 .0 0 0 1

-0 .0 0 0 1

-0 .0 0 0 0 8

-0 .0 0 0 0 8

-0 .0 00 06

-0 .0 00 06

-0 .0 00 04

-0 .0 00 04

-0 .0 00 02

-0 .0 00 02

0 .0 00 02 0 .0 00 02 0 .0 00 02 0 .0 00 02

0.0

0004

0.0

0004

0.0

0004

0.0

0004

80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80

°S

80

°S

60

°S

60

°S

40

°S

40

°S

20

°S

20

°S

0°0°

20

°N

20

°N

40

°N

40

°N

60

°N

60

°N

80

°N

80

°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80

°S

80

°S

60

°S

60

°S

40

°S

40

°S

20

°S

20

°S

0°0°

20

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20

°N

40

°N

40

°N

60

°N

60

°N

80

°N

80

°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80

°S

80

°S

60

°S

60

°S

40

°S

40

°S

20

°S

20

°S

0°0°

20

°N

20

°N

40

°N

40

°N

60

°N

60

°N

80

°N

80

°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E

80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E

Where x is a set of delta functions

j x

2j j j

j

Bx Ψ Ψ x


Wavelet Jb

Scale with σj2

at each gridpoint, and for each scale.

0 .0 250 .0 25

0 .0 5

0 .0 5

0 .0 75 0 .0 75

0 .0 75

0 .0 750 .0 75

0 .1

0 .1

0 .1 25

0 .1 250 .1 5

0 .1 5 0 .1 750 .1 75

0 .1 750 .2

80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E

ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 1 September 2004 12UTC 850hPa vorticity

-0 .0 05-0 .0 03 75-0 .0 02 5

-0 .0 01 25

-0 .0 01 25

0 .0 01 250 .0 01 25

80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


-0 .2 4-0 .1 6

-0 .1 6

-0 .0 8

-0 .0 8

-0 .0 8

0.0

8

0.0

8

0.0

8

0.0

8

0.1

6

0.1

6

80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


-0 .0 8-0 .0 8-0 .0 8 -0 .0 8

80

°S

80

°S

60

°S

60

°S

40

°S

40

°S

20

°S

20

°S

0°0°

20

°N

20

°N

40

°N

40

°N

60

°N

60

°N

80

°N

80

°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80

°S

80

°S

60

°S

60

°S

40

°S

40

°S

20

°S

20

°S

0°0°

20

°N

20

°N

40

°N

40

°N

60

°N

60

°N

80

°N

80

°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80

°S

80

°S

60

°S

60

°S

40

°S

40

°S

20

°S

20

°S

0°0°

20

°N

20

°N

40

°N

40

°N

60

°N

60

°N

80

°N

80

°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E

80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


Wavelet Jb

Convolve again with

0 .0 1 5

0 .0 3

0 .0 4 5

0 .0 6

0 .0 7 5

0 .0 9

0 .1 0 5

0 .1 2

0 .1 3 5

0 .1 5

0 .1 6 5 80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


-0 .0 02 4

-0 .0 02

-0 .0 01 6

-0 .0 01 6

-0 .0 01 6

-0 .0 01 2

-0 .0 01 2

-0 .0 00 8

-0 .0 00 8

-0 .0 00 4

-0 .0 00 4

0 .0 00 4

0 .0 00 4

0 .0 0 0 8

0 .0 00 8

0 .0 008

80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


-0 .2-0 .1 5-0 .1-0 .0 5

-0.0

5

-0.0

5

-0.0

5-0 .0 5

0.0

5

0.0

5

0.0

5

0.0

5

0.0

5

0.0

5

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

5

0.1

50.1

5

0.1

5

80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


-0.0

8

-0 .0 8 -0 .0 8

-0.0

8

-0.0

8

80

°S

80

°S

60

°S

60

°S

40

°S

40

°S

20

°S

20

°S

0°0°

20

°N

20

°N

40

°N

40

°N

60

°N

60

°N

80

°N

80

°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80

°S

80

°S

60

°S

60

°S

40

°S

40

°S

20

°S

20

°S

0°0°

20

°N

20

°N

40

°N

40

°N

60

°N

60

°N

80

°N

80

°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80

°S

80

°S

60

°S

60

°S

40

°S

40

°S

20

°S

20

°S

0°0°

20

°N

20

°N

40

°N

40

°N

60

°N

60

°N

80

°N

80

°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E


80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E

80°S

80°S

60°S

60°S

40°S

40°S

20°S

20°S

0°0°

20°N

20°N

40°N

40°N

60°N

60°N

80°N

80°N

160°W 120°W 80°W 40°W 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E

ˆ ( )j n


Wavelet Jb

• Add together to give:

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E


-0.0812

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

2j j j

j

Bx Ψ V Ψ x


Wavelet Jb

• Example: Horizontal and vertical Vorticity Correlations.

North America Equatorial Pacific


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Forecast Day1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5M/S DATE1=20040710/... DATE2=20040710/...

AREA=TROPICS TIME=12 MEAN OVER 55 CASES

ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST

850 hPa VECTOR WIND

FORECAST VERIFICATION

Wavelet Jb

OPER (28r2)

MAGICS 6.9.1 leda - dai Wed Sep 28 11:13:20 2005 Verify SCOCOM

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Forecast Day3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12M/S DATE1=20040710/... DATE2=20040710/...



200 hPa VECTOR WIND


Wavelet Jb

OPER (28r2)


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5M/S DATE1=20040710/... DATE2=20040710/...



850 hPa VECTOR WIND


Wavelet Jb

OPER (28r2)


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13M/S DATE1=20040710/... DATE2=20040710/...



200 hPa VECTOR WIND


Wavelet Jb

OPER (28r2)


Against analysis Against analysis

Against observations Against observations


L91 0.01

0.02

0.03

0.050.07

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.7

1

2

3

5

7

10

20

30

50

70

100

200

300

500

700

1000

Pre

ssur

e (h

Pa)

60 levels 91 levels

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

12

14

16

18

20

25

30

35

40455055606570

91

Leve

l num

ber


Higher horizontal and vertical resolution

Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for northern hemisphere

T511 L60

T799 L91

Day

Mean over 148 cases from 1 August 2004

User Meeting: June 2005



Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for Europe

T511 L60

T799 L91

Day

Mean over 148 cases from 1 August 2004

User Meeting: June 2005



Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for southern hemisphere

T511 L60

T799 L91

Day

Mean over 197 00UTC cases from 1 January 2005


Statistical significancet test, 500hPa root-mean-square error

Day 3 Day 5 Day 7

N Hem 0.2% - -

S Hem 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Europe 5% 5% -

Green denotes T799L91 better


RMS tropical temperature errors against radiosondes

T511 L60

T799 L91

Mean over 197 00UTC cases from 1 January 2005

500hPa 300hPa

100hPa 50hPa

DayDay


Fit to TEMP observations

used TTEMP-T N.Hemisexp:0028 , ref:oper 2005080100-2005083112(12)

nobsexp

61584 79947 109924 114094 81440 63595 53647 58174 55511 69593 48957 42841 38446 34198 32598 7364

exp - ref

+957 +413 +18

+136 +98

+114 +231 +398 +370 +391 +187 +125 +80 +54 +17 +9

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

STD.DEV

1000 850 700 500 400 300 250 200 150 100 70 50 30 20 10 5

Pre

ssur

e (h

Pa)

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

BIAS

1000 850 700 500 400 300 250 200 150 100 70 50 30 20 10 5

background departure o-b(ref)background departure o-banalysis departure o-a(ref)

analysis departure o-a


Forecasts of KatrinaD+108h

T511 L60 T799 L91


105

1

959

980

980

990

990

990

1000

1000

10001000

1000

100030°N 30°N

90°W

90°W 20050826 00UTC t+72h VT: 20050829 00UTCT511

Hurricane Katrina - MSLP and 3h accum. precipitation

0.5

1

2

5

10

20

40

70

125

200

300

500

1000

T511

Hurricane Katrina at T511 and T799

198

1

921970

980

980

990

990

990

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

30°N 30°N

90°W

90°W 20050826 00UTC t+72h VT: 20050829 00UTCT799

Hurricane Katrina - MSLP and 3h accum. precipitation

0.5

1

2

5

10

20

40

70

125

200

300

500

1000

T799

Observed low of 902hPa

921

959


IFS Model Run-times on IBM p690+Resolution

& time-step

CPUs Wall time for 1-day forecast

(minutes)

Gflops on IBM p690+

% of Peak*

T511 L60

900 sec

128 7 81 8.4

T799 L91

720 sec

256 16 177 9.1

T1279 L60

450 sec

512 23 354 9.1

T2047 L60

300 sec

768 68 537 9.2

* Peak is 7.6 Gflops per PE for IBM p690+


Profile for T2047on IBM p690+ (768 CPUs)

Legendre Transforms~17% of total cost of model

Physics ~36% of total cost


Comparison of profilesat different resolutions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

no

rmal

ized

% c

ost

T511

T799

T1279

T2047


40km

25km

10km

Spectra of total KE

log10k

k-3

k-5/3

Power spectra of total kinetic energy at T511, T799 & T2047


Case-study of an event of heavy rainfall (orographically induced) with severe flooding in the South of France in

September 2002(Observed rainfall in excess of 500mm/24h):

Comparison of precipitation forecast (24-48h range) at

T511, T799, T1279 and T2047


43°N 43°N

44°N44°N

45°N 45°N

3°E

3°E 4°E

4°E 5°E

5°E

ECMWF Analysis VT:Monday 1 January 1996 00UTC Surface: geopotential(orography)

500

2500

4500

6500

8500

10500

12500

14500

16500

18500

20500

21310

10.0m/s

43°N 43°N

44°N44°N

45°N 45°N

3°E

3°E 4°E

4°E 5°E

5°E

Saturday 7 September 2002 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+36 VT: Monday 9 September 2002 00UTC Surface: 10 mtr u/10 mtr v

10m-Wind for the South of France on 9 September 2002 at 0UTC

10m-wind from T204736h-forecast


Total precipitation accumulated over 24-48h FC-range

30

30

30

30

30

43°N 43°N

44°N44°N

45°N 45°N

3°E

3°E 4°E

4°E 5°E

5°E

Saturday 7 September 2002 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+48 VT: Monday 9 September 2002 12UTC Surface: **large scale precip

30

60

78.52 30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

90

90

43°N 43°N

44°N44°N

45°N 45°N

3°E

3°E 4°E

4°E 5°E

5°E


30

60

90

120

150

150.0

30

30

3030

30

30

30

30

90

90

90

150

150

43°N 43°N

44°N44°N

45°N 45°N

3°E

3°E 4°E

4°E 5°E

5°E


30

60

90

120

150

180

197 30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

90

90

90

150

150

43°N 43°N

44°N44°N

45°N 45°N

3°E

3°E 4°E

4°E 5°E

5°E


30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

322.0

T511

T1279

T799

T2047

max ~78mm

max ~150mm

max ~197mm

max ~321mm


Rainfall Verification over South of Francefor T2047 24-48h forecast


2000/07/18-2005/02/15 100% extreme rain percentile (1674)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Lead-time (days)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0C

orr

ela

tion

Ski

ll

Z500PT2PPT

Precipitation skill as a function of model resolution

T2047

T1279

T799

T511 (ops)

ACC Z500ACC PT2Station location TP

2000/07/18 – 2005/02/15

Extreme observed rainfall 2002/09/08

H

H

H

L

L

L

0

0

0

0

0

0

10

10

10

ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 14 September 2005 00UTC Surface:

Resolution Europe France

T2047 0.56 0.61

T1279 0.52 0.60

T799 0.45 0.55

T511 (op) 0.38 0.41

90% confidence intervals indicated


Thank you very muchfor your attention

Documents

Some developments at ECMWF during 2005