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Michael Drury's Presentation at Banque de France
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0 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Some Thoughts About Commodities
Michael Drury March 26, 2012
Paris, France
McVEAN Trading & Investments, LLC
CHINESE RR FREIGHT VS ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
3 MONTH AVERAGE %CHANGE FROM A YEAR AGO
1 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12
RAIL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
PER CAPITA GDP
2010 DOLLARS
2 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
2010
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
$15,000
$18,000
$21,000
$24,000
Jan-69 Jan-73 Jan-77 Jan-81 Jan-85 Jan-89 Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09
SOUTH KOREA TAIWAN CHINA
GROWTH IN PER-CAPITA GDP INCOME
5 YEAR ANNUAL % CHANGE IN 2010 DOLLARS
3 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
2010
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Jan-74 Jan-78 Jan-82 Jan-86 Jan-90 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10
SOUTH KOREA TAIWAN
MOTOR VEHICLE PRODUCTION IN CHINA
MILLIONS OF UNITS
4 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
0
5
10
15
20
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
PER CAPITA GDP
2010 DOLLARS
5 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
BENCHMARKED TO SIMILAR STARTING POINTS FOR MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
(1973 FOR S. KOREA AND 2007 FOR CHINA)
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
Jan-69 Jan-73 Jan-77 Jan-81 Jan-85 Jan-89 Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09
SOUTH KOREA CHINASource: ERS International
Macroeconomic Data Set
PER CAPITA SOYBEAN MEAL CONSUMPTION
5 YEAR ENDING MOVING AVERAGE
6 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
PO
UN
DS
SOUTH KOREA JAPAN CHINA Forecast:
11/12; 12/13 Source: USDA
7 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
8 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
U.S. Corn Planted Acres
9 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1,0
00
AC
RE
S
U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol
10 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
MIL
LIO
N B
US
HE
LS
ACTUAL CONSUMPTION MANDATED LEVEL
11 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
62
68
73
79
84
90
96
101
107
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.61
98
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
Gra
in F
ed
to
Be
ef
Ca
ttle
+,R
esid
ua
l U
S, (m
mt)
Th
e M
od
el (m
mt)
The Model 5YREMA vs. Grain Fed to Beef Cattle + Residual 5YREMA
The Model 5YREMA
The Model (Est.)
Grain Fed to Beef Cattle + Residual (mmt) 5YEMA
Grain Fed to Beef Cattle + Residual (mmt) Est.
THE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS "Chart of the Century“
CORN IN US DOLLARS
DAILY
12 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
1/4 3/5 5/4 7/3 9/1 10/31 12/30 2/28 4/29 6/28 8/27 10/26 12/25 2/23
Mar-12
COPPER IN US DOLLARS
DAILY
13 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12
Mar-12
CRUDE OIL VS GASOLINE
WEEKLY; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
14 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
70
120
170
220
270
320
370
420
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1/4/1999 1/4/2000 1/4/2001 1/4/2002 1/4/2003 1/4/2004 1/4/2005 1/4/2006 1/4/2007 1/4/2008 1/4/2009 1/4/2010 1/4/2011 1/4/2012
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE NATIONAL AVERAGE ALL GRADES
