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South Africa
Political Economy
Maj Tara Hasbrouck
Dawie RoodtWhile hospitalized he released a 3-step plan:
Encouraged compatriots to “forget about government projects like the Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP) and the National Development Plan (NDP).”
Mandate that all state employees reapply for their positions
Establish a world-class skills-development program to keep pace with the growing economy
Less about creating jobs and more about removing barriers
CrisisPop is 53M; GDP is xxx USD
For 2015 projected growth at 2%; first quarter results on 1.3% GDP v. 4.1% in 4th qtr
Debt: $114B, deficit is xxx% GDP
Unemployment up to 34,9% or 8,4 million without jobs10M youth2/3 not educatedMajority blacks - 36% unemployed
Attracted 10B in FDI in 2013/14Has organizations Sasol, Bidvest, Nando, Shoprite, and Standard Bank
Johannesburg Stock Exchange – top 20
In 2014, international tourists numbered from largest to least as follows: German, Chinese, French, Australian, Indian, and ????
Tourism – hampered by new visa regulationsEmploys 1.5M South Africans and contributes to 9% country’s GDPCH tourists decreased by 38% first quarter
Exports
Agriculture – wool, maize, sugar, fruit, etcless than 3% GDP
50% from mining, 1/2M jobs31% GDPWorld leader in xxx and xxx, & some gold, diamonds,
and coal
Tremendous difficulty in tourism and mining sectors due to government regulation
ANC won 62% of vote in country’s 5th national elections; Jacob Zuma in power since ’09
Tripartite alliance between the ANC, the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South Africa Trade Unions (COSATU)
Labour Relations Act (LRA) gave unions disproportionate power relative to employers
Load shedding
Power comes via the state – ESKOMNecessity to have load-curtailment agreementsTalk of Dept and Trade Industry purchasing
industrial-sized generators for manufacturing enterprises
Nuclear power –5%
2015 Indo-African trade projected at US $100BSA is one of India’s largest investors at $112MBilateral trade jump from $5,3 B in 2001 to $63
B in 2011
In SA, Indian textile workers earn R600/month while Chinese manufacturing workers earn R4000/month.
Trying to be a Developmental State - Country’s strong planning capacity not matched with policy implementation
Low long-term growth ratesCorruptionInadequate human capital basePersistent social inequalitiesHigh structural unemployment needs