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MIG BANK 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel
Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected]
SPECIAL FOCUSUSD/NOK Scope for a further extension higher from
the current region.
By Bijoy Kar, CFAwww.migbank.com
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SPECIAL FOCUS7 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
USD/NOK Medium-term structure warns of an extension higher.
USD/NOK based at 5.2174 at the beginning of May after a minor
break
below the support of a falling channel. This was followed by a
substantial
recovery which broke above the resistance of the same channel
confirming
the break down to 5.2174 as a false break lower.
A period of consolidation then followed in a tight 5.3144-5.6318
band
which resulted in a deep retrace of the initial recovery.
September then
saw a substantial swing higher amid US Dollar safe haven buying
and the
associated weakness in oil saw a sustained break over the 200
day moving
average.
After peaking at 5.9738 a period of consolidation/retrace
appears to be
developing. Assuming global growth continues to moderate and the
price
of oil remains weak, we see scope for an eventual continuation
of US Dollar
strength to target 6.2370 and then 6.7281. Thus, while above
5.6318 and
the 200 day moving average (currently at 5.5616), scope is seen
for the
creation of a higher low for an initial re-test of 5.9738.
The ideal location for long positioning lies near the key low at
5.6926,
where a higher low would be favoured to form. The clear risks to
this
strategy are a stabilisation in the Eurozone credit crisis,
which would likelylead to a weakening of the US Dollar and an
associated strengthening of
oil prices. In the mean time long positioning is favoured with
stops
suggested under 5.5447 and scope for an eventual return to
6.2370/6.7281.
EUR/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected],
Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/NOK
USD/NOK daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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SPECIAL FOCUS7 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate
levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been
hit the stop will be
moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the
second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in
more profit. All
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SPECIAL FOCUS7 October, 2011
www.migbank.comBjioy KarTechnical
[email protected]
14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00
MIG [email protected]
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