Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies

to Assess Socio-economic Impacts of Natural Disasters

19-21 October 2005, Bangkok.

Sri Lanka. D.M.RupasingheSenior Economist

Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

1. The country and the economy.

Land area of 65,610 sq. km. Population of 19.5 million in 2004. The population density is about 310 persons

per square kilometer by end of 2004.

Key social indicators

Literacy rate : 93 per cent Life expectancy: 73 years net primary enrolment :97 per cent Infant mortality: 11.2 per 1,000 live births-

2003Maternal mortality 0.1 per 1,000 live births

HDI ranks 96th place among 177 countries

Per capita income: US dollars 1,031 in 2004. Average economic growth: around 5 per cent

since 1977.

Economic Growth

First half of 2005: 5.1 per centExpected growth in 2005: 5.3 per cent. First quarter 2005: 4.4 per centSecond quarter 2005 6 per cent

2003(a) 2004(b) 2003(a) 2004(b)

Agriculture 176,450 175182 19.0 17.9 Agriculture 137,150 135,297 14.7 13.8

Forestry 16,887 17,107 1.8 1.7

Fishing 22,412 22,779 2.4 2.3

Industry Sector 246,417 259,256 26.5 26.5

Minning & Quarrying 15,699 16,946 1.7 1.7

Manufacturing 151,951 159,696 16.3 16.3

Construction 64,115 68,332 6.9 7.0

Electricity, gas and water 14,651 14,282 1.6 1.5

Services Sector 507,191 545,487 54.5 55.7

Transport, storage and communication 125,538 142,679 13.5 14.6

Wholesale and Retail Trade and Hotels and Restaurants 206,507 218,924 22.2 22.3

Financial services, Real Estate and Business Services 108,578 114,717 11.7 11.7

Public Administration, Other Government Services and Defence and other Community, Social and Personal Services 66,568 69,166 7.2 7.1

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 930,057 979,925 100.0 100.0

Net Factor Income from Abroad -9,468 -11,300

Gross National Product (GNP) 920,588 968,625

Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka

Value (Rs. Mn.) Share of GDP (%)

Table 1: Gross National Product at Constant (1996) Prices

2. Introduction.

Type of Disaster Occurence

Floods Annually Droughts Annually Landslides Common with intense rainfall Cyclones 2003 May causing severe floodsTsunamis For the first time in Sri Lanka

on 26 December 2004 Earthquakes Only tremors of very small magnitudeVolcanoes Prehistoric Tornados Never

Table 2 Hydro-Meteorological Disasters (Type of disaster and Occurence )

Year No. of Damaged No. of Affected Expendiiture

Deaths Houses Families for Disasters

1993 36 42,468 237,737 43,726,604

1994 18 52,927 357,333 40,156,807

1995 1 11,707 91,921 55,288,253

1996 13 9,343 216,208 452,002,869

1997 19 3,608 466,153 318,089,287

1998 5 7,937 38,002 106,665,779

1999 9 3,803 167,416 145,994,839

2000 15 86,845 257,682 65,398,998

2001 6 11,445 458,008 506,214,166

2002 2 5,112 20,201 28,389,474

2003 254 37,227 140,310 1,740,153,392

2004 31723 62,400 257,625

Source: Dept. of Social Services

Table 3

Natural Disasters in Sri Lanka - 1993 to 2004

The tsunami on 26 December 2004.

The death toll was over 38,000 persons, second highest after Indonesia.

21,441 people injured Over 5000 are reported missing Nearly one million have been displaced.

In terms of total value of damage

The third most affected country (US dollars 1,454 million).

In term of GDP

Second highest damage (7.6 per cent).

Required financial assistance

The total cost of required relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction is estimated to be around US dollars 2 billion for a period of 3-5 years.

Programme/Project Required

Investment (US$ mn)

Road Development 353

Rail Transport 313

Telecommunication 18

Water Supply and Sanitation 205

Electricity 115

Ports 22

Education 170

Health 100

Housing and Urban Development 400

Fisheries 200

Livelihood and Micro Financing 157

Tourism 58

Environment 30

Culture and Religion 13

Table 4

Investment Needs for the Post-Tsunami Reconstruction Strategy

3. Developments related to assessment of socio-economic impacts of disaster.

26 December 2004 tsunami caused widespread concern about

a) assessment of damage and loss

b) methodology for assessment

Sri Lanka did not process the complete methodology

Centralised disaster assessment system

Different institutions At different level Mainly for relief and rehabilitation purposes

carried out the assessment.

Central Bank of Sri Lanka

Socio-economic impacts assessment

The Primary Objectives

a) To asses economic impacts

b) To quantify the losses,

c) To quantify the rehabilitation and reconstruction cost,

d) To provides details to donor agencies.

Detailed Analyses.

Cover four core areas of the economy Real sector,

agriculture, industry trade infrastructure,

External sector, Fiscal sector

Monetary sector.

Special Attention

Gross Domestic Product, (GDP) Investment, Balance of Payments, Public Finance, Prices Unemployment.

Not considered

1. Indirect losses impossible to quantify

Environmental effects, Impacts on women and children, Impacts on well being and quality of life Certain opportunity cost;

2. Indirect losses possible to quantify

a) High operational cost due to destruction of physical infrastructure and inventories

b) Diminished production or services due to total or partial paralysis of activities

c) Additional cost on alternative means of production.

d) Cost of budgetary reassignmente) Income reduction due to non-availability

of public utilitiesf) Additional cost on dealing with the new

situationg) Loss of production due to linkage

effects.

4. Policies and Strategies to cope with Disasters

1. Institutional set up

2. Rules and Regulations

3. Other Measures.

Several committees to draft an Act and a National Plan since 1992.

National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) was established in 1996

National Disaster Management Bill and National Plan for disaster management prepared by NDMC was passed by the Parliament in March 2005,

The Disaster Management Act

provides to set up;

a) National Disaster Management Council

b) National Disaster Management Centre

c) Technical Advisory Committees and

d) Preparation of disaster management plans, the declaration of a state of disaster, the award of compensation and for other matters committed to the disaster.

National Disaster Management Council (NDMC)

The President The Prime Minister The Ministers in charge of

Social Welfare, Defence, Finance, Health, Land and Agriculture, Forest and Environment, Housing, Water Resources, Science and Technology, Highways and Fisheries are the other members.

Chief Ministers of the Provincial Councils Five members of Parliament appointed by

the Speaker in consultation with party leaders.

National Disaster Management

Centre (NDMC) functions Preparation and implementation of national

disaster management plan. Monitor the implementation of sub-disaster

management plans.Preparation of a national emergency

operation plan. Planning and implement preparedness,

mitigation, prevention, response and recovery activities on disaster management.

Establishment of data bank for accumulation and dissemination of information.

Enhancement of international co-operation.

Centre for National Operation (CNO)

To co-ordinate the rescue and relief operations in a cohesive and an efficient manner.

To ensure that relief measures were directed to the affected people by identifying their needs and matching them with the available resources.

TAFREN, (Task Force for

Rebuilding the Nation)

To co-ordinate and assist government agencies and institutions in their efforts to reconstruct and rehabilitate tsunami affected regions.

TAFREN will be legally empowered by Parliament Act for a period of 3 to 5 years during which period it focuses on ensuring accelerated economic growth within the affected region through the successful completion of the rebuilding process.

2. Rules 100-meter buffer zone rule around the

coastal areas.

3. Others Insurance policies to cover hydro meteorological

disasters.

5. Priority Areas of Regional Co-operations in Disaster Risk Management

Early warning systemEffective disaster management and

control system Priority areas of disaster reductionCapacity improvement in weather

forecasting