STAFF GUIDE to the OPERATIONAL PLANNING PROCESSfundforfallenallies.org/sites/fundforfallenallies.org/files/library... · STAFF GUIDE to the OPERATIONAL PLANNING PROCESS ... allocated

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SUPREME HEADQUARTERS ALLIED POWERS EUROPE

BELGIUM

1710.14/SHOEE/02 8 December 2002

STAFF GUIDE to the

OPERATIONAL PLANNING PROCESS

OPERATIONS PLANNING COURSE 2002-1 (OPC 02-1)

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CAVEATS This document is a ‘deliverable’ produced in fulfilment of SHAPE Consultancy Support Services Contract, Blanket Purchase Agreement 4001959-1, dated 14 Nov 02. It is one of a series designed to set the training environment for Allied operational planning staff officers participating in the Operations Planning Course 2002-1 (OPC 02-1) which is a part of the High Level Exercises conducted by the Special Exercise Section (SHOEE), Operations Division, SHAPE, Casteau, Belgium. The geographical location for this training event is in the Constellatia synthetic theatre of operations.

The Alliance referred to throughout these documents is a generic international military alliance in a ‘parallel world’. This Alliance is comprised of several generic European and North American nations. It has a political body called the Council and a strategic level military headquarters referred to as the Alliance Strategic Command (ASC). The ASC Commander is referred to as COMASC (for Commander ASC). The Alliance forces are organised, trained and equipped similar to NATO forces. All Alliance and other nations, their political/military organisations and/or their forces portrayed in this document were developed from open sources in support of specific preconditions required to achieve the established training objectives. Although some information in this document may resemble actual NATO policies, processes, arrangements or procedures it should not be considered as such and does not imply how NATO would respond to current or possible future events. The information in this document is not to be construed as an official position of any NATO headquarters/agency or any member nation of the North Atlantic Alliance.

This document contains forces and infrastructure data from the International

Solutions Group, Limited, (ISG) Constellatia Synthetic Theatre Database (CSTDb). The CSTDb was created by ISG to provide the capability to quickly produce high quality scenario and planning documentation in support of NATO and National Headquarters’ staff training programmes.

Request for copies of this document and/or other related OPC training materials may

be forwarded to Special Exercise Section (SHOEE), Operations Division, SHAPE, Casteau, Belgium B7010. Any comments or suggestions for improvement of this document should be forwarded to the OPC Project Manager at the same address. Queries with respect to products generated by the CSTDb may be forwarded directly to International Solutions Group, Limited, 1000 Hope Mills Road, Fayetteville, NC 28304, United States of America.

This document is NATO UNCLASSIFIED.

Scenario documentation prepared by International Solutions Group, Limited

Consultants to SHAPE, NC3A and NATO

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PREFACE General. The Bi-SC Operational Planning Course (OPC) teaches the NATO Operational Planning Process (OPP) as described in the Bi-SC Guidelines for Operational Planning (GOP)1. The course emphasizes the application of the principles of operational planning in a process designed to optimise logical and analytical steps in decision making. While the OPP is applicable at all levels for both Advance and Crisis Response Planning and any kind of operation, the OPC focuses on Crisis Response Planning at the operational level for a joint out-of-area peace enforcement operation. Students are assigned to syndicates where they function as staff planners in a Joint Operational Planning Group (JOPG). Given the limited time available, the OPC places greater emphasis on understanding the process rather than on producing refined planning products. Therefore, considerable time is devoted to the Orientation and Concept Development Stages of the OPP and only minimal time is allocated to the Plan Development and Plan Review Stages. Course Aim. To further educate, train, and exercise appropriate OF-5 / OF-4 Staff officers, NATO-wide, in planning joint operations at the operational level. Course Objectives. The aim will be achieved by three core objectives:

Core Objective A. Develop a common understanding of the principles of operational art and design. Core Objective B. Develop a detailed understanding of the staff officer’s role in the NATO Operational Planning Process (OPP). Core Objective C. Apply the principles of operational art to operations planning and decision in a Crisis Response scenario under warfighting conditions.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Preface iii Introduction 1-1 Preparation 2-1

Annexes A PE 1 - Initiation A-1 B PE 2 – Orientation B-1 C PE 3a - Concept Development (Staff Analysis and COA Development) C-1 D PE 3b - Concept Development (COA Comparison, Selection, CONOP) D-1 E PE 4 - Branch Planning E-1

1 Bi-SC Guidelines for Operational Planning (GOP), 9 Jan 2001.

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INTRODUCTION 1. Purpose. This Staff Guide is intended to provide guidance to OPC Facilitators, Deputy Facilitators and Component Command Liaison Officers for the conduct of operational planning activities in syndicate Joint Operational Planning Groups (JOPG) during the Operations Planning Course. 2. Scope. This guide lays out the activities to be accomplished by syndicate JOPGs during specified practical exercise (PE) periods. It outlines recommended steps to accomplish desired outcomes for each stage in the OPP. It has been updated to reflect revisions to the Bi-SC GOP and techniques in use in Allied Joint HQs. 3. Utilisation. This guide is intended for use by the OPC Staff and should not be distributed to students. Each OPC Facilitator will be issued hard copy and electronic versions of as many enclosures as practicable -- in either PowerPoint , Word, Excel, or other electronic format. The file name will be taken from the Enclosure ‘name’. For example a PowerPoint drawing for Enclosure ‘F-1' would have the file name of f-1.ppt. 4. Syndicate JOPG Activities. The majority of learning occurs in the syndicate JOPG during practical work in the conduct of planning steps associated with the different stages of the OPP. Practical exercises focus on the following: PE 1 - Initiation (Day 1) Task 1-1 Receive or Recognise Task(s) Task 1-2 Form the Operations Planning Group PE 2 - Orientation (Day 2 - 3) Task 2-1 Conduct Mission Analysis Task 2-2 Deliver Mission Analysis Briefing Task 2-3 Develop Commander’s Planning Guidance PE 3 - Concept Development (Day 4 - 7) Task 3-1 Conduct Staff Analysis Task 3-2 Develop Courses Of Action (COAs) Task 3-3 Analyse Courses of Action Task 3-4 Deliver a Decision Brief Task 3-5 Develop a Concept of Operations and SOR PE 4 - Branch Plan Development (Day 8-10) Task 4-1 Identify Planning Requirement Task 4-2 Conduct Mission Analysis Task 4-3 Conduct Staff Analysis Task 4-4 Develop COAs Task 4-5 Analyse Courses of Action Task 4-6 Deliver a Decision Brief 5. Course Components. The OPC is composed of six elements as described below:

a. Academics. Academic instruction is presented in OPC plenary sessions to provide basic NATO doctrine and procedures related to operations planning that students need to carry out operational planning tasks in syndicates.

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b. A Planning Situation. A generic peace enforcement scenario provides the geo-political situation and the operational environment for student planning activities. Documentation includes an overview of the crisis, strategic political and military planning guidance, a strategic military assessment, as well as country studies and other reference documents. c. Syndicate Joint Operational Planning Groups (JOPG). Students carry out practical work in syndicates as members of a Joint Operations Planning Group (JOPG) under the direction of a syndicate Facilitator, who acts as the Chief of the JOPG. Facilitators experienced operational planners provided by Allied Joint HQ to support the OPC. They provide subject matter expertise in the NATO Operational Planning Process (OPP) and coach syndicates toward desired outcomes for each stage of the OPP. d. Allied Joint Force and Component Commanders. Syndicate JOPGs carry out their planning tasks in support of the Allied Joint Force Commander and Chief of Staff and coordinate joint issues with liaison officers from Component Commands. The Commander of the Allied Joint Force (COMAJF) is played by a retired NATO CINC. The AJF Chief of Staff is played by the Course Director. Liaison officers are played by service experts from various Allied component-level HQs. e. Senior Mentor. A retired senior NATO officer (former CINCENT) provides guidance and advice to the participants in the course, both in his role as COMAJF and as an advisor to the course staff. f. Operations and Movements Analysis. Experienced Operational Analysts (OAs) from the Operations Functional Services Division (ORFSD) of NC3A and various Allied HQs as well as Strategic Movements experts provide analytic support to the syndicates during concept development, especially war gaming. They use a variety of manual and automated analysis tools, including ADAMS (Allied Deployment and Mobility System) to model strategic deployments and war game syndicate courses of action to assist in developing the concept of operations.

6. OPC Staff Meetings. OPC Staff should be prepared for periodic feed back sessions with the Course Director and Senior Mentor. These are typically held each afternoon. 7. OPC as a Planning Laboratory. In addition to being a course for training and educating NATO staff officers, the OPC (MIDEX), since its inception, has served as a laboratory within which to study various aspects of operational planning as well as techniques for implementation. The OPC provides a unique opportunity to study the GOP and identify areas for further development. The GOP has evolved significantly as a result of the OPC. Similarly, the use of Operations Analysts and computer assisted war gaming, as well as ADAMS, in support of operational planning have increased awareness of the value of these capabilities. The development of TOPFAS has relied considerably on the OPC/MIDEX for studying and modelling planning activities. Therefore, we encourage the introduction and exchange of techniques and procedures that enhance the process with the aim to contribute the development of NATO’s operational planning system. 8. Comments. Users are encouraged to provide suggestions or recommendations for improvement of this guide, either during conduct of the OPC or after, to the OPC consultants responsible for its development.

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PREPARATION

1. General. Facilitators should come with a sound knowledge of the OPP as outlined in the GOP and clear ideas of how to organise and direct the activities of a joint operations planning group. A basic knowledge of joint operations and the operational level of war is expected. Leadership will be essential. Imagination is always a plus. The students will provide more than enough service-specific tactical and operational level experience and can be counted on to come up with innovative courses of action. Remember, the focus is on learning a sound and logical analytic process. There are no school solutions. 2. Duties of the Chief and Deputy Chief of the JOPG (Facilitator and Assistant Facilitator). The JOPG Chief and his Deputy need to work as a team from the outset. There is simply too much to do alone. They should agree their respective duties in advance and adjust them as they go. Some suggested duties follow: a. Chief of the JOPG (Facilitator).

Organise and direct the activities of the JOPG. Implement the OPP. Ensure the proper application of principles. Establish the work plan. Co-ordinate with COMAJF regarding expectations, briefings, and issues. Ensure syndicate deliverables

b. Deputy Chief of the JOPG (Assistant Facilitator). Become an enabler. Take charge of room arrangements. Help keep discussions on track and to the point. Help track critical planning data such as assumptions, implied tasks, capability requirements. Help collate input to briefings. Monitor/control Request for Information (RFI). Co-ordinate with Component liaisons. Be prepared to adjudicate the war game. Co-ordinate the development of joint force flow and SOR. Assist in keeping to the work plan.

3. Organising the JOPG. The aim is to build a joint team. There will be as many as 20 students in each syndicate with many different backgrounds. This provides lots of opportunity for learning about joint operations. It also means that plenary discussions in the JOPG at 20 have limitations.

Prior to Day-1 the Facilitator and Deputy should develop a seating plan and sub-group organisations that will mix service and functional backgrounds. Organising sub-groups with a mix of functional expertise allows more discussion and helps team building. Once sub-groups have completed a

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task, a short syndicate level discussion can be effective in sharing different views and solutions and achieving a syndicate position. The number and composition of sub-group organisations may vary according to the planning task.

4. Develop a Work Plan. The OPC covers three stages of the OPP during the two weeks of the demanding course. OPGs will be under considerable time pressure carry out planning steps and tasks and produce required planning products. The course schedule provides time for each step and this Guide suggests how to organise and allocate time to different tasks. Facilitators should begin each OPP stage and major step by establishing the work plan for the syndicate and posting it in the syndicate room. 5. References. The Bi-SC GOP is the primary reference. Each student will have a copy. AJP-1, Allied Joint Doctrine, will also be available in hard copy. In addition we will be able to have access to a large electronic reference library of NATO, Allied and Bi-SC publications through the Special Exercise Section Web Site which can be accessed via the NATO Secret WAN. We should not hesitate to produce required NATO references as part of the education process. Classified documents will require appropriate controls and safeguarding. 6. Information Systems. Typically, each syndicate will have at least 3 stand-alone lap-top computers, at least one desk-top computer connected to an OPC LAN, and a computer projector. Computers will have MS Office 97, or later. The LAN will have directories for each syndicate as well as shared directories providing reference documents, formats, and copies of all presentations. In addition, there will be one ADAMS computer allocated for each syndicate. 7. Critical Planning Data. During the Orientation Stage, each JOPG will determine a number of key items of planning information which should be kept in view to guide subsequent planning and updated as necessary. In particular, the operational design (with centres of gravity and decisive points), assumptions, assigned and implied tasks, force capability requirements and information requirements should be visibly posted and maintained throughout the planning process. 8. Briefings. Briefings to senior commanders are an inherent part of the OPP and likewise are a feature in the OPC. It is important to give all students an opportunity to brief. Time is tight, but you will find that most information required for briefings will have been developed during the various steps in the process. You will find standard briefing formats on the LAN. They provide a suggested format but are not rigid. Have a look at the formats ahead of each stage and use them to capture required information as and when it is developed. This will limit the amount of time spent in preparing briefings. The goal should be for every member of the JOPG to have had a role in presenting a JOPG briefing to COMAJF. Briefing requirements include:

Mission Analysis COA Update Brief COA Decision Branch Plan

9. Available Tools. Each syndicate room will be provided with a number of tools typically associated with operational planning. These include:

a. Mapping. Maps are provided at two scales - 1:1,000,000 ONC and 1:500,000 TPC. These maps are mounted on metal boards and have magnetic unit markers. Maps will be posted with the current disposition of forces. b. Sketch maps. Outline maps of Kama Sea/Zoran SEA have been printed on “butcher” paper for use in developing COAs.

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c. Synchronisation matrices. Pre-printed matrices are available as aids to COA development, war gaming and concept refinement. They can also be used for timelines. d. White Boards and Butcher boards. There will be number of these available for briefings, developing C2 arrangements and tracking critical planning data. e. Other. If it exists and/or you can describe a planning tool you need, tell us. We will explore the possibility of obtaining additional tools.

10. Special Subject Briefings. In addition to the academic briefings that will be presented in plenary, the OPC has a number of briefings on special subjects available from its consultants related to operational planning. Facilitators can request any of these briefings at during the course to address subjects of relevance to the JOPG’s work. Special Subject briefings are available on the following subjects:

Commander’s Essential Information Requirements (CEIR2) Complementary Tools for Operations Planning Military Response Options (MRO) NATO Precautionary system Rules of Engagement (ROE) Decision Cycles Joint targeting HQ Information Management Information Operations Intelligence Mission Essential Tasks Lists (METL) Operational Fires Rear Area Operations

2 Commander’s Essential Information Requirements (CEIR). The CEIR directly support the commander’s decision making process and identify particular elements of information he requires about activities, events, conditions and force dispositions to make timely and effective decisions. They typically relate to conditions at decisive points.

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NATO UNCLASSIFIED Annex A

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PE 1 - INITIATION (1430-1730 Monday)

Tasks. Task 1-1 Receive or Recognise Task(s) Task 1-2 Form the Operations Planning Group Conditions.

COMASC has developed a Strategic Military Assessment (SMA) and provided advice to the Alliance Council Political Military Estimate (PME). The ALLIANCE Council has issued an initiating directive based on Commander Alliance Strategic Command (COMASC) strategic military advice. COMAJF has provided a Liaison Officer to COMASC HQ and has provided input to COMASC’s mission analysis and planning guidance. COMASC has issued planning guidance, including his mission statement, intent and planning tasks for his subordinate commanders. Syndicate members have joined the Allied Joint Force (AJF) nucleus staff as members of the Joint Operations Planning Group (JOPG). Liaison officers from designated component commands have arrived to assist the JOPG in joint planning as well as to facilitate concurrent component planning. A summary of the crisis events and regional data are available along with copies of the Bi-Strategic Command (Bi-SC) GOP.

Time Allocated. 3 hours Expected Outcomes.

Each student understands his/her role and is prepared to function as a member of the AJF Joint Operations Planning Group (JOPG) activated to plan for a possible operation in Constellatia. Each student understands OPP Stage I, the purpose and content of the SMA, as well as the minimum expected content of an initiating directive and the Commander’s Planning Guidance to initiate subordinate planning. Each member of the JOPG is familiar with the current planning situation, including the political situation, the geography of Constellatia, the military aspects of the different factions in the crisis, the planning tasks and parallels between the Alliance and NATO. Specific JOPG members have established liaison with respective component command representatives. Syndicates have identified additional information requirements, established RFI procedures and have initiated RFIs.

Deliverables. Syndicate/JOPG organization. RFIs as required.


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Suggested Steps Time 1.

Introduce and explain role of the Facilitator/Chief of JOPG; introduce members of the syndicate (military background, current position, prior experience in operations planning and the NATO OPP, etc).

0:15

2. Review and discuss the typical composition of a JOPG. This should include: • A brief review of the functional organisation of a typical CJTF HQ based on

the CJTF concept and AJP-01, staff functions (CJ-1 to CJ-9, PIO, SJA, Provost Marshall etc)

• Essential functions that should be integrated in a JOPG including intelligence, manoeuvre, fires, logistics and C2.

• The need to request HQ augmentation for both planning and execution.

0:10

3. Develop provisional OPG assignments: • Operational Fires • Air Defence • Logistics • Movements • C2 and CIS (Including C2W/Info Opns)

0:15

4. • Establish JOPG procedures for ini tiating and control requests for information (RFI) and the use of maps, automation, etc.

0:15

5. Establish a work plan. 0:10 6. Review background documents

• Read: The Zoran Sea Crisis, COMASC’s Strategic Military Assessment, Council’s Initiating Directive and COMASC’s Strategic Planning Guidance

• Skim: Country Books, UNSCRs, etc, Note: JOPG Worksheets are provided for individual note-taking.

1:15

7. Discuss the planning situation to include: • The availability of minimum essential information. • The adequacy of information and guidance provided in the Initiating

Directives and in Strategic Planning Guidance.

• Additional information required and potential sources of information.

0:15

8. Establish liaison/coordination with higher, component, and supporting HQ sometime during this period.

0:10

9. Develop RFIs as required. 0:15 Senior Mentor. Establish any specific information and briefing requirements.


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Component Commands. Introduce role and functions of component representative to JOPG. Establish liaison and coordination with designated members of JOPG. Respond to RFIs. Key Points.

SCs will provide military advice to the Alliance Council, including a Strategic Military Assessment (SMA) through the Military Committee during the Political Military Estimate. The initiating directive is a formal means used at the political-military level to initiate operations planning at the strategic level. Council Initiating Directive should include political objectives and end state, political assumptions, planning limitations (constraints and restraints), military tasks, etc. Strategic Planning Guidance should include strategic military objectives and end state, strategic assumptions and the SC’s initial intent and planning tasks for subordinates. AJF will operate at the operational level, subordinate to COMASC, and will be responsible for theatre-level planning. Focus on the operational level! The AJF is conducting “Crisis Response Planning” (rather than “Advance Planning”) which results in the development of an OPLAN with assigned forces. CJTF HQ doctrine envisions an Allied HQ activating a Crisis Establishment (CJ-1 to CJ-9) for a contingency operation around a nucleus staff with augmentation coming from other NATO and national HQs. Syndicate members are augmentees to the nucleus staff for the AJF JOPG -- Syndicate leader is AJ5, Chief of Plans. RFIs should be aimed at information required to plan at the AJF level; RFIs must be coordinated and responses disseminated.

Back-up Material Enclosure OPP Stage I – Initiation A-1 Definitions of the levels of war A-2 Levels of command A-3 CJTF notional organization (overall & staff) A-4 Outline Initiating Directive A-5 Request for Information (RFI) Format A-6


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A-1 OPP Stage I – Initiation

A-2 Definitions of the levels of war


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A-3 Levels of command

A-4 CJTF notional organization (overall & staff)


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A-5 Outline Initiating Directive

A-6 Request for Information (RFI) Format

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PE 2 - ORIENTATION (1030 Tuesday - 1730 Wednesday)

Tasks. Task 2-1 Conduct Mission Analysis Task 2-2 Deliver Mission Analysis Briefing Task 2-3 Develop Commander’s Planning Guidance Conditions.

The JOPG has received the COMASC’s Strategic Military Assessment, the Alliance Council’s Initiating Directive, COMASC’s Strategic Planning Guidance and current Intelligence Summary (INTSUM). The J2/J3 (DISTAFF) have provided a current situation update. Country Studies for countries of the Region are available. Supply of JOPG Orientation Worksheets.

Time Allocated. 2 Days (14 hrs) Expected Outcomes. At the end of this period, students have demonstrated the ability to:

Develop an estimate of the situation based on an analysis of the strategic background, country information, area of operations and current situation to determine the nature of the problem and key political, civil, military, political and economic factors bearing on the situation. Conduct a mission analysis of the desired military end-sates and strategic objectives as well as assigned and implied tasks to determine mission essential tasks to be accomplished and the results to be achieved. Effectively identify key operational factors of time, space and force as well as other factors that are critical to the design of the operation. Develop an operational design identifying the operational centre(s) of gravity, decisive points, lines of operations, etc., to guide planning. Establish operational objectives, end- state and criteria for success. Develop a mission statement including a clear statement of the principle tasks and purpose of the COMAJF. Conduct an initial force structure analysis resulting in an initial estimate of force capability requirements. Develop the commander's planning guidance including an initial intent, pre-conditions for success and major operational phases. Prepare and present a Mission Analysis Brief

Deliverables. An Operational Design. A Mission Analysis Brief.


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COMAJF’s Planning Guidance (Draft). Suggested Steps Time 1. Review the OPP Stage II - Orientation. 0:10 2. Provide a general work plan. Suggestions:

Encourage JOPG to use the Orientation Worksheet. Designate a recorder (Deputy Chief JOPG) to capture key information during Syndicate discussions that will be required for the Mission Analysis Brief. Build the Mission Analysis Briefing (roughly) during the Orientation stage, polish at the end. Capture “Operational Design” information and post it in the Syndicate room to guide planning. Make a point to update “Assumptions”, “Implied Tasks” and “Critical factors” throughout the Orientation Stage. Start identifying decision points and the Commander’s Essential Information Requirements to support those decisions.

0:10

3. Review the Background and Current Situation. Suggest sub-groups focussing on Perseus, Auriga, Vulpecula, Batari Liberation Army and Aquila. Reconvene JOPG to hear a summary of each sub-group’s findings. The focus should be two-fold -- first to understand the current situation in the context of various strategic factors and second to reach an assessment of future actions by opposing forces given their objectives, capabilities, military character, and operational patterns. Review the background to the situation (political, social, economic and military) Review the current situation Identify key factors likely to impact operations and deductions for planning.

1:00

4. Review Opposing Force Situation. Examine the Intelligence Estimate of future actions by opposing forces and given their objectives, capabilities, military character and operational patterns. Discuss

current disposition capabilities for further military action likely intentions range of likely future actions

1:00

5. Review higher direction and guidance. Suggest conducting this review at JOPG level. Capture key elements and post visibly in the Syndicate Room. Review Alliance political objectives and desired end-state Review superior's mission and intent Review strategic military objective(s), end-state and criteria for success Review constraints & restraints from superiors Review and analyse 'assumptions' from superior Review superior’s direction and guidance

1:00


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Suggested Steps Time Review ROE guidance

6. Assess own tasks. Suggest assessment and discussion in sub-groups. Sub-groups should produce a list of assigned and implied tasks identified from reading the Strategic Planning Guidance. The list of implied tasks will be expanded further during the identification of key factors and ops design. Reconvene JOPG to hear a summary of each sub-group’s findings. Review and assess assigned tasks from superior Begin identifying implied tasks deduced from analysis

1:00

7. Identify key operational factors. (Suggest three sub-groups each focussing on one of the major factors. Sub-groups should identify the factor as well as the implication for planning in terms of additional implied tasks, the need to make prudent assumptions, or other planning requirements. The analysis of key factors should lead to a series of deductions from which conclusions may be drawn with respect to operational requirements. Deductions should be concise, relevant and expressed as building blocks of information. They should lead logically to a set of conclusions. It may be necessary to revise some deductions as later aspects of the analysis may affect some deductions developed earlier in the process. Conclusions must be relevant and useful in determining specific operational conditions that must be established with respect to forces, time and space. Assumptions. The analysis of key factors may reveal significant gaps in essential information. In such cases it may be necessary to make assumptions in order to allow planning to proceed. Assumptions are used in place of unknown facts and must be plausible, necessary and realistic. They cover issues over which the Commander normally has no control, but without which planning cannot proceed. Assumptions should not be made which dismiss challenging aspects of the situation or mission or presume our own success. Once an assumption is adopted, it must be identified early in the planning document and the assumption’s relevance must be continuously reviewed. Because assumptions are treated as facts, they may lead to related deductions. Assumptions will apply throughout the development of the plan until verified as fact or discarded.

1:00

Space factors. (Use the maps to roughly define key operating areas! Characteristics (geography, topography, oceanography, infrastructure, weather) Geo-strategic location Strategic distance (LOCs) and reach Operational distances in the JOA Military use (forward positions, base/lines of operations, LOCS) Major effects on military operations

Time factors (Build an initial timeline)


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Suggested Steps Time Relative time/distance factors Relative ability to control operational tempo (ability to gain the initiative) Comparison of strategic and operational reaction times Earliest employment time (Set D-day) Time required for deployment (Set G-day) Time available for planning and preparation Seasons and calendar events

Force factors Make a rough comparison of Perseus, Auriga, Vulpecula, Batari Liberation Army Force type, size and structure Overall capability for offensive/defensive operations WMD Modernisation Operational readiness Mobility and deployability Sustainability Reserves and reinforcements Command and Control Morale

8. Identify Critical Factors, Relative Strengths and Weaknesses. Based on the key factors identified above, task the sub-groups to identify those factors that may prove “critical” to the operation. Critical strengths (key own and opposing capabilities leading to success) Critical weaknesses (own and opposing vulnerabilities that risk failure) Critical points in time (points in time where own or opposing forces must act to ensure success or preclude failure) Critical points in space (geographical points where own or opposing forces must act to ensure success or preclude failure)

1:00

9. Develop an Operational Design. An operational design should be developed for own and opposing operations. This requires clear definition and understanding of the various elements that comprise an operational design and a conceptual model to use in establishing the relationship between these elements. (NATO definitions and generic models are provided in Annex B.) The design should draw from the analysis above. The Facilitator should guide the development of the Ops Design. Begin with an explanation of the definitions of the elements and a model of an operational design (0:15). Step through the determination of CoG and DPs for Vulpecula, BLA, Auriga / Perseus, (1:00) and own operational design in plenary (1:00).

2:00


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Suggested Steps Time Review the Strategic Military Objectives and Desired End-state, as well as

criteria for success.

Analyse available sources of moral or physical strength and power Determine primary opposing sources of strength and power for:

Achievement of own strategic objectives Preventing achievement of opposing strategic objectives

Review Opposing Strategic Centres of Gravity and Decisive Points. Are they within the JOA? Are they accessible and vulnerable to AJF given likely capabilities and limitations? If so, consider developing operational design against strategic COG.

Determine operational centre(s) of gravity. For each opponent, determine the primary source of strength for accomplishing his operational objectives. When a single characteristic, capability or locality stands out as being critical -- it may be a centre of gravity. When a number of are determined to be critical -- trace them to a single source that may be the centre of gravity. Use the following tests to help determine a valid centre of gravity: If it is sustained and protected does it provide the means to accomplish own objectives and prevent the accomplishment of opposing objectives? If it is destroyed, defeated or otherwise neutralised does it preclude accomplishment of own objectives and allow the accomplishment of opposing objectives? Is it of a nature that it can be protected and attacked, directly or indirectly?

Determine decisive points. Consider that each CoG represents a source strength that depends on certain capabilities and conditions at different points in time and space. Some will represent areas of relative strength while others will represent areas of weakness and may expose critical vulnerabilities. Determine which critical vulnerabilities will ultimately decide the success or failure in achieving the objectives of the operation. Represent these “points” on a timeline and on the map. Any points that are critical to own and opposing COGs must be “decisive points”. Determine others that critical to protecting own or neutralising opponent’s COG. State the conditions that must be set for success.

10. Determine operational objectives and sequence of major operations (Phasing). Arrange decisive points sequentially. Group under given phases or new phases Establish operational objectives aimed at setting required conditions at DPs. COAs describe different ways of accomplishing operational objectives in terms of who, where, when and how critical joint tasks might be

0:30


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Suggested Steps Time accomplished.

11. Update Planning Assumptions, Pre-conditions for Success and Implied tasks. Determine any additional planning assumptions, pre-conditions for success and implied tasks identified during the development of the operational design. Update these before developing the mission statement.

0:30

12. Develop mission statement. Suggest having each sub-group develop a mission statement and then compare. The mission statement identifies the command (who), the major military tasks (what), the area of operations (where), the timing of the operation (when), and the purpose of the operation (why).

0:30

13. Conduct initial force structure analysis. Consider forming service/ functional sub-groups (land, air, maritime/amphib, SOF and logistics) to look at the assign/implied tasks as well as the critical joint tasks for each phase and come up with their initial estimate of force requirements. The JOPG should agree the initial force structure Review forces available for planning Conduct a preliminary “troops-to-tasks analysis” to identify capabilities and echelon Establish an initial force structure - major subordinate commands

1:00

14. Develop the commander's planning guidance. Most of the information required to complete the draft guidance will have already been developed. Items that remain to be developed are highlighted below in bold. Suggest priority be given to developing the initial intent in “bullets”. Sub-groups could develop ideas and present to JOPG. Initial intent Purpose (From Operational Objectives) Method (From Operational Design) End State Pre-conditions for success Major operational phases Direction to planning staff Direction to subordinate commanders (Orient subordinate commanders to their likely role in achieving any particular assigned/implied tasks and critical joint tasks.) Coordination (Consideration should be given to organising an early Commanders’ Reconnaissance to the JOA to confirm staff estimates and to gain as much first hand appreciation of conditions at decisive points in the JOA.) Critical timings Planning milestones Commander’s Essential Information Requirements (CEIR) The operational design should help to identify foreseeable points in the operation where the commander may have to make operational decisions. In order to make these

1:00


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Suggested Steps Time decisions the commander will require specific essential information. This required information could be termed “Commander’s Essential Information Requirements (CEIR). Command and control Preliminary C2 arrangements Preliminary theatre organisation (Theatre of operation, areas of responsibility) Additional guidance

15. Complete preparations for the “Mission Analysis Brief” and conduct a brief rehearsal. (This step and the previous step could be combined.) Most of the information required to complete the Mission Analysis Brief will have already been developed. Divide up the brief. The Deputy Chief JOPG should help collate. Allow time to walk through the key points of the brief.

1:00

16. Present the “Mission Analysis Brief”. Designate a recorder to capture the Commander’s Guidance, ver batim.

1:00

COMAJF/Senior Mentor. Amplify COMASC guidance as required Identify specific areas for attention during “mission analysis”

Endorse or redirect staff analysis of opposing objectives, capabilities and assessment of likely actions.

Endorse or re-focus staff development of the operational design. Accept or reject proposed planning assumptions and pre-conditions for success. Review and refine proposed COMAJF’s initial intent and guidance. Provide further guidance on:

C2 arrangements Theatre organisation Information Operations CEIR

Provide guidance on COA development, including Range of own and opposing COAs to be developed Any COAs not to be developed Any specific COA for JOPG analysis

Confirm requirement for an informal COA update briefing by the JOPG. Component Commands.

Provide Component perspective on “Key and Critical Factors”, “Assumptions” and the Operational Design -- in particular the conditions to be set at decisive points and joint critical tasks.

Review initial force estimate against mission analysis (assign/implied tasks).


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Provide assessment of Component capabilities, including readiness and availability. Respond to RFIs. Key Points.

Assumptions should be made only with respect to issues beyond our control and only when necessary to allow planning to proceed. They should not assume away enemy capabilities or implied tasks. Task analysis begins with assigned tasks and continues throughout the mission analysis with the identification of implied tasks necessary to accomplish the objective(s) and achieve the end-state. A thorough appreciation of key time, space and force factors is essential to developing an overall operational design. Consider this to be the operational level “Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield” or IPB. It should include a logistics IPB, CIMIC, IPB, etc. Critical factors will include critical strengths and critical weaknesses. Critical strengths may help to identify the centre of gravity. Critical weaknesses may identify possible vulnerabilities. Decisive points may include both critical strengths and critical weaknesses. A Commanders’ Recon in the JOA must be planned to verify and update the estimate. Timing will be important. Objectives and End-States. The Alliance Council established the Alliance’s overall political objectives and the desired political end-state in Constellatia. From this COMASC has proposed strategic military objectives and a military end-state for the JOA, which the Council has approved. These objectives establish the purpose of COMAJF’s operations (they are the object of his actions). In developing his own operational design for accomplishing these objectives, COMAJF will determine centres of gravity and determines lines of operations through decisive points to achieve operational objectives leading to the defeat or neutralization the enemy’s operational/strategic centres of gravity and the achieve the strategic military objectives. A preliminary troops-to-tasks analysis should be conducted by estimating the gross force/capabilities required to accomplish assigned and implied tasks, including critical joint tasks identified during the development of the operational design. Compare this preliminary estimate against the forces available for planning. This may highlight any imbalance between ends (objectives) and means (forces). On the basis of estimated force requirements establish an initial task organization including major subordinate commands. The staff should be prepared to assist the commander in developing his vision for the operation and expressing it in an initial statement of his intent including the operational purpose of the operation, the method(s) by which he will achieve his purpose and his desired end-state. He may also want to identify certain pre-conditions for success to guide the staff and his subordinates. The JOPG should help the commander identify foreseeable decision points in the operation and the essential information he will need to make decisions. These should become the commander’s essential information requirements (CEIR).3

3 Note: These are known in some national services as CCIR - Commander’s Critical Information

Requirements - but is often confused with the AD 65-5 term CCIRM - Collection Coordination Intelligence Requirements Management. Therefore, to minimise confusion during the OPC, the term CEIR will be used to describe the elements of information the Commander requires about activities, events, conditions and force dispositions to make timely and effective decisions.


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Back-up Material Enclosure

OPP Stage II - Orientation Steps B-1 Analysis of Situation B-2 Factors and Deductions B-3 Definitions of Operational Design Terms (1 of 2) B-4 Definitions of Operational Design Terms (2 of 2) B-5 An operational design model B-6 Association of Forces and Time B-7 Mission Analysis Brief - Outline Format B-8 Commander’s Planning Guidance Format B-9 Definition of Intent B-10 CJTF Command Arrangements B-11


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B-1 OPP Stage II - Orientation Steps

B-2 Analysis of Situation


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B-3 Factors and Deductions

B-4 Definitions of Operational Design Terms (1 of 2)


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B-5 Definitions of Operational Design Terms (2 of 2)

B-6 An operational design model


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B-7 Association of Forces and Time

B-8 Mission Analysis Brief - Outline Format


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B-9 Commander’s Planning Guidance Format

B-10 Definition of Intent


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B-11 CJTF Command Arrangements


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NATO UNCLASSIFIED Annex C

C - 1

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PE 3A - CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT (Part 1) (0900 Thursday - 1200 Friday)

Task. Task 3-1 Conduct Staff Analysis Task 3-2 Develop Courses Of Action (COAs) Conditions.

COMAJF has approved the mission statement and operational design and has provided his initial intent and planning guidance. Component Commands have conducted their mission analysis and have forwarded their initial force estimates based on their preliminary troops-to-tasks analysis. The J2 (DISTAFF) has provided a current situation update and Intelligence Estimate including opposing courses of action. Operations and movements analysts are available to support JOPG. COMASC’s staff is prepared to react to RFIs. COMAJF has asked for a COA update briefing on Friday morning.

Time Allocated. 2 days (16 hrs) Expected Outcomes. Students will be able to: Deduce effects of time, space and force factors on operations at the operational level.

Analyse opposing capabilities and likely objectives and identify most likely and most dangerous COAs open to opposing forces. Develop friendly COAs from the basic operational design that describe a sequence of key tasks to be carried out by joint forces to set conditions at decisive points in phases leading to the accomplishment of the achievement of operational objectives and the desired military end-state. Test COAs for validity. Provide an update briefing to the commander to obtain further guidance as required.

Deliverables. An informal “COA Update Brief”

A minimum of two valid AJF COAs complete with concept, component tasks by phase, operational graphics, C2 arrangements and task organisation based on troops to task analysis A draft joint force flow in a joint SOR format for transportation feasibility analysis (NLT 1500 Friday)

Suggested Steps. Time 1. Review the OPP Stage III - Concept Development: (four steps) (During the

OPC, the planning steps for this Stage will be accomplished in two separate 0:15


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Suggested Steps. Time practical exercises over the course of four days.) Staff Analysis (Thursday) Develop COAs (Development) (Thursday -Friday) Develop COAs (Analysis) (Monday next) Deliver COA Decision Brief (Tuesday next) Develop Concept of Operations (Tuesday next) Coordinate the integration of OR and movements analysts into JOPG work.

2. Review Commander’s Planning Guidance. Review the ver batim comments and guidance provided by COMAJF. Ideally, these should have been incorporated in the draft Commander’s Guidance for his approval.

0:15

3. Review and Update Opposing Force Situation and COAs Note: Facilitators will have a prepared Intelligence Estimate and Opposing COA brief that can be issued and presented to the JOPG at this time. Suggestion. Begin in plenary with a review (0:30) of the OPFOR COA Brief. Briefly brainstorm most likely and most dangerous opposing force COA (1:00).

Review OPFOR capabilities Relative strengths and weaknesses OPFOR operational objectives OPFOR operational centres of gravity and decisive points Assess enemy COAs in terms of probability and danger to own forces/mission

1:30

3. Staff Estimates - This is a continuation of the analysis begun during Orientation. During concept development the staff begin to estimate requirements for different military functional areas or operating systems, including capabilities and operations to accomplish mission essential tasks and to accomplish operational objectives Staff Estimates should cover:

Intelligence Operations (Land, air, maritime, amphibious, special ops, PSYOPS, IO, etc) Targeting Logistics and Movements C3/CIS CIMIC

2:30

Staff estimates should lead to conclusions that will form the basis for COA development:

capability requirements support requirements threats to be countered risks to be covered


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Suggested Steps. Time opportunities for exploitations coordination requirements

Consider a three-step process: Identify significant factors that might effect military operations. Make deductions as to how these factors might impact enemy or own COAs. Conclude relevant planning requirements

Suggestion: Split JOPG into sub-groups, based on expertise and assigned roles, for independent analysis of functional areas. Sub-groups present conclusions to JOPG. Conclusions should provide a good basis for the development of tentative COAs and identify:

Common Requirements - when certain tasks can only be accomplished one way using similar capabilities. These will be common to any COA. Options and Alternatives. When there will be more than one way to accomplish a task or fulfil a capability requirement various options should be identified that could be combined to form a COA. When options are mutually exclusive, due to time, space or force limitations, they may form the basis for alternative COAs. Groupings by Area or Function. Typically capability requirements can be grouped according to pivotal operations in a specific geographical or functional area. Grouping capability requirements accordingly helps define task organised force packages, which may be common, optional or alternatives for COA development.

Deputy Chief JOPG ensures that specific planning requirements are captured. Refer to Annex E of the GOP.

5. Develop Tentative COAs Suggestion. Begin in plenary with a review (0:30) of:

Steps in developing tentative COAs and validation criteria Commander’s Preliminary Intent and COA guidance Importance of using operational design to guide COA development to ensure that they set required conditions at decisive points

Brain-storm different options and alternatives for the accomplishment of AJF tasks. (The technique of brain-storming should allow a wide range of ideas to be surfaced, without judgement, rapidly stimulating more ideas until no new ideas are forthcoming. This provides a good means for enumerating possible COAs and mentally prepared syndicates to start their own more deliberate COA development. It may also highlight a number of “groupings” of similar COAs that the Chief JOPG may assign to different syndicates.)

What are the mission essential tasks to be accomplished? How to focus AJF strengths against OPFOR vulnerabilities and reduce own risks and vulnerabilities? Who (type force) is capable of accomplishing the tasks?

2:00


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Suggested Steps. Time Where, when and in which sequence must/can tasks be accomplished?

Summarise results of brainstorming Identify points that will be common to all COAs Identify major variations in who, what, where, when and how Establish critical operational timings

Designate syndicates to develop as many specific variations as practicable and explain specific formats to be used. Emphasize that each COA should represent a main idea for how the AJF will neutralise/defeating the Opposing COA and accomplishing own objectives.

Note: The level of detailed required for tentative COAs must be sufficient to assess its suitability, acceptability and feasibility. Therefore attention should be given to ensuring that component tasks are defined in terms of when (Phase and D+/G+), where (decisive point or operating area) and with the major capabilities required. Otherwise COAs are reduced to wishful thinking.

Prepare rough operational graphics (sketch) Identify the main purpose (objective) for each operational phase Identify the main task(s) for each component for each operational phase and the main effort Allocate planning force/required force capabilities to key tasks Determine command arrangements Prepare rough operational timeline

2:00

Test COAs for validity. Consider having each sub-group present its COA and the others to make the validity check using the COA Validity Worksheet (Enclosure C-9). Coordinate COA validation with Components by having Component Liaisons visit the JOPG during validation. Suitability. COA will accomplish mission as well as the objective and end state given opposing COAs Feasibility. COA is achievable given time, space and force factors in theatre Acceptable COA is within established political, legal/moral and risk parameters Exclusivity. COA has significant differences in forces and/or their employment in time and space Completeness. COA addresses the accomplishment of key tasks by forces in time and space Conclude by eliminating COAs that are not viable and eliminate or combine COAs that are not exclusive.

1:30

8. Prepare COA update briefing (course of action statements, timeline, task organisation and graphics). Overall Intent Refinement of COMAJF intent providing the main idea for the use of forces in time and space to achieve operational objective Phases of the Operation, including the main purpose (objective) and the employment of forces to accomplish joint critical tasks

0:30


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Suggested Steps. Time Force/capabilities required to implement COA Logistic support concept support base(s), LOCS in theatre, RSOM, and sustainment Command Arrangements

9. Conduct COA update briefing. COMAJF is busy. He gave his guidance and wants to check with the JOPG to see how they are progressing and whether they need further guidance. This is not a COA decision brief, so keep it brief – not to exceed 10 minutes. Give him the main idea for each COA, the key aspects that are unique, and raise any C2 and sustainment issues he needs to be aware of at this time. Allow COMAJF 15 min for summary guidance. Request COMAJF guidance Other COAs (opposing and own) to be considered COAs to be eliminated Priorities for war gaming own and opposing COAs Request COMAJF’s criteria for COA comparison Confirm date, time and location for COA decision brief

1:00

COA Refinement. Once COAs are determined viable, designate sub-groups to refine further develop at least 2, preferably 3, viable COAs by adding the level of detail required for further analysis and war gaming. Therefore, further detail regarding the deployment and employment of specific joint capabilities and timings will be required. An important activity at this point is a detailed “troops-to-tasks” analysis for each identified task associated with the COA being refined. Refined COA will include the following: An Outline CONOPS should simply describe:

The main purpose of each operational phase leading to the accomplishment of the essential tasks and purpose of the mission. When, where and in what sequence operations will be carried out to set required conditions at decisive points. The main tasks for each component as well the major force capabilities required for each operational phase. Graphic Depiction of the Concept - may be one or more map sketches or overlays using standard NATO military symbology to illustrate the concept of operations. Task Organisation – should show the anticipated command and force structure two levels down as well as any significant changes by phase. Operational Timeline depicting the sequencing of key tasks by subordinates for each phase of the operation, including other key events and opposing actions.

Note: A draft joint force flow in a joint SOR format for transportation feasibility analysis is required NLT 1530 Friday.

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Senior Mentor. Provide additional guidance, focus and “course corrections” as required Specify other COAs (opposing and own) to be considered or eliminated Specify which enemy COAs to use in war-game Give priorities for war gaming own and opposing COAs Provide criteria for COA comparison Confirm date, time and location for COA decision brief Component Commands. Complete own mission analysis based on JOPG Mission Analysis Briefs

Develop component initial force estimates based on their preliminary troops-to-tasks analysis Develop component operational estimates based on tentative COAs

Be prepared to discuss component contributions to COAs: Capabilities required to accomplish joint critical tasks at decisive points Joint/service operational concepts which could be employed Strengths, vulnerabilities and risks Command arrangements Support and sustainment requirements Respond to RFIs Back-up Material Enclosure

OPP Stage III - Concept Development C-1 Own COA C-2 Defeat Criteria C-3 Test for Viability C-4 COA Viability Test Worksheet C-5 Troops to Task Analysis C-6 Statement of Force Requirements Worksheet C-7 SOR Definitions C-8


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C-1 OPP Stage III - Concept Development

C-2 Own COA


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C-3 Defeat Criteria

C-4 Test for Viability


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C-5 COA Viability Test Worksheet

C-6 Troops to Task Analysis


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C-7 Statement of Force Requirements Worksheet

C-8 SOR Definitions

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Annex D

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PE 3B - CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT (CONT’D) (0830 - 1730 Tuesday)

Tasks. Task 3-3 Analyse Courses of Action Task 3-4 Deliver course of action decision brief Task 3-5 Develop a Concept of Operations Conditions.

Component planners have provided input to COAs regarding operational concepts that could be employed, required capabilities, vulnerabilities, risks and sustainment requirements. COMAJF has reviewed tentative COAs and provided further COA guidance, including priorities for war gaming own and opposing COAs as well as COMAJF’s criteria for COA comparison. The JOPG has valid AJF COAs to be war-gamed against most likely and most dangerous enemy COAs. The JOPG have been provided a current situation update as required. Operational research and movements analysts are available to support war-gaming

Time Allocated. 2 days (18+/- hrs) Expected Outcomes. Students understand the OPP Stage III - Concept Development process.

JOPG organises and conducts effective “war game” of friendly and opposing COAs to determine the relative effectiveness of each friendly COA in achieving operational objectives with acceptable risk. JOPG functional experts ensure COAs are supportable from a functional perspective. JOPG develops and employs suitable tools for comparing COAs against each other or against key criteria/factors. Risk assessment identified areas of risk and possible ways to mitigate risk. JOPG presents a COA Decision Brief which allows the COMAJF to select a viable COA.

Deliverables. A COA Decision Brief to COMAJF A joint Statement of Requirements (SOR) Suggested Steps. Time

1. Review the OPP Stage III - Concept Development. (Four steps) (This is the 0:15


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Suggested Steps. Time 2nd practical exercises for this Stage and will be accomplished over the course of 2+ days.)

Develop COAs (Analysis) (Monday/Tuesday AM) Deliver COA Decision Brief (Tuesday PM)

2. Prepare for the War Game. Suggest preparing for the war game at JOPG level. War-gaming “cells” and administrators will need time to complete their preparation following the Chief’s instructions. Suggest the room set up focus attention on the ONC map allow easy viewing of the synchronisation matrix and other records of the war game.

1:45

• Review the purpose and what is to be accomplished during the war game o Evaluate efficiencies and effectiveness in the use of force, as well

as likely costs and benefits o Assess likely outcomes against opposing COAs o Synchronise component actions o Identify decision points and CEIR (NAI/TAI) o Identify significant risks and opportunities o Requirements for branch planning o Identify additional force/capability requirements o Determine the required force flow based on when forces are

required to be operationally ready for employment o Enhance COA by correcting deficiencies o Identify advantages and disadvantages

• Consider alternative war game methods and select the most appropriate given the time and resources available

o Option 1. War Game Phases. Play out key land, air and maritime tasks by phase against objectives for each phase.

o Option 2. War Game Decisive Points. Play out critical joint tasks at decisive points.

o Option 3. War Game Segments of Battle Space. Play out critical joint actions to dominate components of battle space.

• Organise JOPG for the war game o Chief Umpire for adjudication o "Red Cell" joint force and component commanders, strategic

decision maker o "AJF Cell" joint force and component commanders o Functional area honest brokers (for both own and opposing

capabilities and effects) Intelligence capabilities and effects Logistic capabilities and effects C2W capabilities and effects


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Suggested Steps. Time Civil military capabilities and effects

o Recorders for: Synchronisation, decision points CEIR, NAI/TAI Force capability requirements and forces and flow (CINC Required Dates - CRD) Significant risks and opportunities requiring possible branch planning C2 requirements Other issues.

• Establish rules: o Make joint and component level decisions o Employ forces two levels down o Set game “turns” (1x turn = action - reaction - counter-action) (1st

move to whoever has the initiative) o Measure effectiveness two levels down o Record results o Avoid unnecessary assumptions; record when necessary

• Establish means for measuring effectiveness o Static comparison of relative combat power o Combat power effects o Attrition of combat power o Rates of movement

3. Conduct the war game • Set the strategic and operational conditions effecting the JOA

o Political conditions o Threat conditions o Environment, including weather and light o Civilian populace

• Conduct game turns o Action - reaction - counter-action o Assess o Record results

10:00

4. Examine and compare war game results. (Suggest having war game role players input to the examination based on their role in the war game Consider: • Efficiencies and effectiveness in the use of force

1:00


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Suggested Steps. Time • Likely costs and benefits • Likely outcomes against (most likely and most dangerous) opposing

COAs) • Significant risks and opportunities • Requirements for additional force/capability requirements • Advantages and disadvantages

5. Compare each own COA against each opposing COA. There will only be time to war game one own COA in any detail. However, each JOPG will also receive the results from the OA automated war game. Based on these experiences and insights gained form the detailed war game, it should be possible to identify advantages and disadvantages each own COA has when compared with the opposing COA. • Prepare the Advantage/Disadvantage comparison matrix • Make the comparison

1:00

6. Compare Own COAs. This is a comparison of own COAs against each other to according to the Cdr’s criteria as well as likely costs, benefits and risks • Establish selection Criteria • Establish a scoring system and any weighting • Prepare the matrix • Make the comparison • Identify critical issues

1:00

7. Prepare the Decision Brief. Confirm in advance briefing requirements. Limit the review of Mission Analysis only to the Mission, Assumptions and Operational Design. Focus on describing the COAs, presenting the results of staff analysis and war gaming, and the recommendations.

2:00

8. Deliver Decision Brief 0:45 9. Receive the Cdr's Guidance.

• Any modification of staff analysis, COA evaluation and/or COAs • Decision on the final COA to be developed into the CONOP • Branches/sequels to be developed • Additional CEIR • Forwarding concept and issues to COMASC. • Time and location for back briefs by subordinates and rehearsals

0:15

10. Develop Concept of Operations (CONOP) and SOR (TBD) TBD Senior Mentor. Receive decision brief, select COA and issue any additional guidance.


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Component Commands. Assist JOPGs in war-gaming component actions Be prepared to discuss component contributions to COAs Respond to RFIs. Back-up Material Enclosure

OPP Stage III - Concept Development Steps D-1 Purpose of the Game D-2 War game Methods D-3 Synchronisation Matrix D-4 Compare Own and Opposing COAs D-5 Relative Comparison Matrix D-6 Simple Numerical Comparison Matrix D-7 Weighted Numerical Comparison Matrix D-8 Risk and Pay-off Comparison Matrix D-9 Force Generation Sequence D-10 Force Identification and Deployment Documents D-11


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D-1 OPP Stage III - Concept Development Steps

D-2 Purpose of the Game


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D-3 War game Methods

D-4 Synchronisation Matrix


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D-5 Compare Own and Opposing COAs

D-6 Relative Comparison Matrix


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D-7 Simple Numerical Comparison Matrix

D-8 Weighted Numerical Comparison Matrix


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D-9 Risk and Pay-off Comparison Matrix

D-10 Force Generation Sequence


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D-11 Force Identification and Deployment Documents


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NATO UNCLASSIFIED Annex E

E- 1

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ANNEX E PE 4 - BRANCH PLAN DEVELOPMENT

(0800 Wednesday - 0930 Friday) Tasks.

Task 4-1 Identify the Task Task 4-2 Review the Mission Analysis Task 4-3 Update the Staff Analysis Task 4-4 Develop Branch COAs Task 4-5 Analyse Branch Courses of Action Task 4-6 Deliver a Decision Brief

Conditions. The JOPG has identified those situations may occur with the chosen COA.

Situations have been identified during COA war gaming that could preclude establishing essential conditions at a decisive point that puts the operation at risk.

Situations could also arise as a consequence of a planning assumption that is subsequently proven to be erroneous but still has to be accommodated within the scope of current planning.

COMAJF has selected a course of action for the CONOP and provided direction to the JOPG to develop a branch plan to deal with the potential situation.

A synchronisation matrix for the COA is available and shows the operational conditions that relate to the branch planning situation.

Output from the Orientation Stage (Mission Analysis Briefing and COMAJF Planning Guidance) are available for review.

COMAJF will review any adjustments to operational design and provide his initial intent and planning guidance during an informal COA update briefing.

Time Allocated. 16 hours Expected Outcomes. At the end of this period, students: Understand the purpose of and requirement for “branch planning” during the Concept

Development Stage of the OPP and how branch planning situations are identified. Are capable of evaluating requirements for branch planning against their previous

mission analysis to ensure that branch planning situation remains within the scope of the current operational design and is not in fact a totally new operation.

Effectively identify key operational factors of time, space and force factors pertaining to the branch planning situation that impact decisive points and lines of operations in the operational design.

Can describe the sequencing of actions comprising the potential opposing forces COA for the branch.


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Can describe a valid friendly COA, based on the revised operational design, that describe the sequence of key tasks by joint forces to set conditions at decisive points in phases that will lead to the achievement of operational objectives.

Provide an update briefing to the Commander to obtain further guidance as required. Understand and can identify decision points for a branch plan and the essential

information the commander will require to make a prudent decision. Are able to organise and conduct a manual war game. Can conduct and effective COA comparison as a basis for making a recommendation. Deliverables. Adjustments to initial Mission Analysis Brief (operational design) Opposing Force COAs for branch A minimum of two valid AJF COAs for the branch An informal “COA Update Brief” A formal COA decision brief Suggested Steps. Time 1. Review the branch planning requirements and the JOPG work plan. Suggest a

brief review of the basics of branch planning. This includes identifying foreseeable events in a selected COA that could pose the risk of own failure at a decisive point or assumptions that could prove false and developing plans for a sequence of subsequent alternative actions that will still achieve the objective within the approved operational design. Get organised and establish liaison/coordination with OA Team as well as higher, components, and supporting HQs Review the key tasks for developing a branch plan:

0:15

Task 4-1 Review/Identify the Branch Planning Task (0:30) Task 4-2 Review the Mission Analysis (1:30) Task 4-3 Update the Staff Analysis (1:30) Task 4-4 Develop Branch COAs (4:00) Task 4-5 Analyse Branch Courses of Action (6:00) Task 4-6 Present Branch COAs Decision Brief (2:00) 2. Review/Identify the Branch Planning Task. 0:15 Review the COA selected by COMAJF. Review specific branch planning guidance provided by COMAJF. Review information identified by the JOPG during the war game relating to

the branch. 3. Review the Mission Analysis. Suggest sub-groups quickly review relevant portions

of the approved Mission Analysis and COMAJF’s original planning guidance (1:00) and conclude in plenary (0:30). The aim should be to check requirements for the branch plan against their previous mission analysis to ensure that branch planning situation remains within the scope of the current operational design and is not in

1:30


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Suggested Steps. Time fact a totally new operation. Keep it brief - only look for significant changes. You will have additional time to update the “Staff Analysis.” Key points to address are:

Opposing forces situation. Compare the opposing force situation identified during the COA war game against the current disposition capabilities and assessment of intentions to confirm that it is within the range of plausible future action resulting in the planning situation.

Higher direction and guidance. Are there any conflicts with COMASC’s Planning Guidance?

Own task analysis. Identify any implications or adjustments to assigned and implied tasks.

The Operational Design. Review the approved operational design to identify implications and need for adjustments. These will have to be discussed with COMAJF. Determine if the approved operational design remain valid by checking:

Operational objective(s). Has the purpose of the operation changed - “what” the operational commander is to accomplish in order to achieve the strategic objectives.

Own end-state and criteria for success. Any changes to the military conditions that will exist in the JOA when each Operational Objective has been accomplished.

Operational centre(s) of gravity. For each opponent, review which source of strength that will allow him to achieve his operational objectives. Any changes?

Decisive points. Review those critical points in time and space where specific capabilities, localities and conditions will decide the success of the operation or the sustainment of the CoG. Changes?

Identify decisive points at risk in the branch. Identify those decisive points in the branch that expose the CoG or pose the risk of failure in achieving the objectives of the operation.

Identify adjustments to the approved line of operations. Determine alternatives within the approved line of operation that will adjust the directional orientation of the force through decisive points to achieve the objectives of the operation. This will require identifying possible alternatives for own line of operation that will by pass decisive points at risk. Consider whether the new line of operation requires a change in “direct” or “indirect” approach.

Adjust the sequence of major operations (Phasing). Review and adjust groupings of decisive points sequentially, under given phases or new phases. Review and adjust definition of conditions that must be set at each decisive point.

Identify changes in Joint Critical Tasks required to set conditions at decisive points. Review and adjust description of joint action required to set conditions become critical joint tasks that will be common to all subsequent courses of action. How these critical joint tasks might be accomplished using different component capabilities will vary from one COA to another.

Assess force structure implications. Identify any significant changes in force requirements.


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Suggested Steps. Time requirements.

4. Update the Staff Analysis. Suggest splitting JOPG into 4 sub-groups – 3 sub-groups will do update analysis of Time, Space and Force factors and a 4th “red Cell” will update the Opposing COA (1:15). Sub-groups present deductions to JOPG using standard “Factor-Deduction Matrix” at Enclosure C-4. (0:45). Capture conclusions that may prove decisive in the branch. Make sure that everyone understands the three-step process:

1:30

First, identify significant factors that might effect military operations. Second, make deductions as to how these factors might impact enemy or

own COAs. Third, conclude relevant planning requirements.

Conclusions should add to the mission analysis and help prepare for concept development. The following are examples of relevant deductions:

critical capabilities to be neutralised critical vulnerabilities to be exploited opportunities for exploitations threats to be countered risks to be covered additional tasks additional capability requirements limitations on military operations in the JOA requirements for coordination. Theatre Space Factors. Area, distances and key points to be controlled Constraints on staging, moving and concentrating forces Space for manoeuvre to gain a positional advantage on land, at sea

and from the sea Implications of the loss of space on forces and time Implications of the depth of operations on forces and time Force Factors. (Consider Alliance and all major actors in theatre) Relative combat power advantages and disadvantages, overall in key

areas - comparison of opposing forces strengths and weaknesses The ability to exploit relative exploit combat power advantages and

disadvantages The relative mobility of forces to gain a positional advantage by

manoeuvre over time The relative ability to of forces to concentrate at decisive points over

time The relative increase or decrease in available forces and combat

power over time


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Suggested Steps. Time The relative ability to of forces to sustain combat power over time Time Factors. The time required to deploy and concentrate forces versus the time

available Implications of delaying or advancing hostilities and decisive combat

with respect to forces and space The relative ability of forces to dictate the tempo of operations over

time The implications of extending or shortening the duration of the

operation(s) Decisive movements in time due to forces and space available 5. Develop Branch COAs. Suggest beginning in plenary with a review of the OPFOR

situation, operational design and the COA that leads to the branch situation. Allow some time to ensure understanding.

4:00

Review Opposing Forces COA(s) leading to Branch situation (0:30) Operational objectives Sequence of tasks by joint forces Advantages and disadvantages Assess probability and danger to own forces/mission Identify the indications and warnings, in terms of time, space and

forces, that would reveal OPFOR intentions to adopt this COA. (0:15)

Brainstorm the possibilities for the branch COA. Brainstorming should allow a wide range of ideas to be surfaced, without judgement, rapidly stimulating more ideas until no new ideas are forthcoming. This provides a good means for enumerating possible branch COAs and mentally prepared syndicates to start their own more deliberate COA development. It may also highlight a number of “groupings” of similar COAs that the Chief JOPG may assign to different syndicates.

(0:15)

Develop tentative branch COAs. Give syndicates guidance as to any variations they are to develop and specific formats to be used. Emphasize that each COA should represent a main idea for how the AJF will neutralise/defeating the Opposing COA and accomplishing own objectives.

(2:00)

Note: The level of detail required in a COA must be sufficient to determine its feasibility and to allow it to be war-gamed. Therefore attention should be given to ensuring that component tasks are defined in terms of when (Phase and D+/G+), where (decisive point or operating area) and with the major capabilities required. Otherwise COAs are reduced to wishful thinking.

Decide when, where and in what sequence tasks will be accomplished in theatre and group by "phase"

Identify decisive points (time and space) in the sequence of actions Prepare rough operational graphics (sketch) Identify the main purpose (objective) for each operational phase Identify the main task(s) for each component for each operational

phase


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Suggested Steps. Time phase

Allocate planning force/required force capabilities to key tasks Determine command arrangements Prepare rough operational timeline Brief and Test COAs for validity. Consider having each sub-group present its

COA and the others to make the validity check using the COA Validity Worksheet (Enclosure C-9). Coordinate COA validation with Components by having Component Liaisons visit the JOPG during validation. Suitability - COA will accomplish mission as well as the objective and end-state given opposing COAs.

(1:00)

Feasibility - COA is achievable given time, space and force factors in theatre

Acceptable - COA is within established political, legal/moral and risk parameters

Exclusivity - COA has significant differences in forces and/or their employment in time and space

Completeness - COA addresses the accomplishment of key tasks by forces in time and space

Update COMAJF on Review of Mission Analysis and Tentative COAs. COMAJF gave his guidance and wants to check with the JOPG to see how they are progressing and whether they need further guidance. Keep it brief. Inform him of any issues identified from the review of the mission analysis. Give him the main idea for each COA, the key aspects of phasing that are unique, and raise any C2 and sustainment issues he needs to be aware of at this time. Allow COMAJF a few minutes for summary guidance.

(0:30)

Request COMAJF guidance on other COAs to be considered or eliminated; priorities for war gaming and criteria for COA comparison. Confirm date, time and location for COA decision brief

6. Analyse Branch Courses of Action. Suggest the Deputy Chief prepares for the war game to the extent possible during COA development. Have all the organisation done the before hand. The room set up should focus attention on the ONC map allow easy viewing of the synchronisation matrix and other records of the war game.

6:00

Review the purpose, organisation and rules for the war game (3:00) "Red Cell" joint force and component commanders, strategic decision

maker "AJF Cell" joint force and component commanders Functional area honest brokers (for both own and opposing capabilities

and effects) Intelligence capabilities and effects Logistic capabilities and effects C2W capabilities and effects Civil-military capabilities and effects


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Suggested Steps. Time Recorders for: Synchronisation, decision points Force capability requirements and forces and flow (CINC

Required Dates - CRD) Significant risks and opportunities requiring possible branch

planning C2 arrangements Other issues Chief Umpire for adjudication Establish rules: Make joint and component level decisions Employ forces two levels down Set game “turns” (1x turn = action - reaction - counteraction) (1st

move to whoever has the initiative) Measure effectiveness two levels down Record results Avoid unnecessary assumptions; record when necessary Conduct the war game (4:00) Set the strategic and operational conditions effecting the JOA Conduct game turns (Action - reaction - counter-action) Assess Record results Conduct Comparison of Own and Opposing COAs (0:45) Examine and compare war game results Prepare the matrix Identify relative advantages and disadvantages Compare Own COAs (0:45) Establish selection Criteria Establish a scoring system and any weighting Prepare the matrix Make the comparison Identify critical issues 7. Present Branch COAs Decision Brief 2:00 Prepare the Decision Brief. (1:00) Deliver Decision Brief. Receive the Cdr's Guidance. (1:00) Any modification of staff analysis, branch COA evaluation and/or

COAs for branch


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Suggested Steps. Time Decision on the final COA to be developed as a branch to the CONOP Additional commander’s essential information requirements (CEIRs) to

support a decision to implement the branch plan Time and location for back briefs by subordinates and rehearsals Senior Mentor. Establish any specific information and briefing requirements. Provide additional guidance, focus, and “course corrections” as required Specify other COAs (opposing and own) to be considered or eliminated Priorities for war gaming own and opposing COAs Commander's criteria for COA comparison Confirm date, time and location for COA decision brief Component Commands. Establish liaison and coordination with designated members of JOPG. Respond to RFIs. Be prepared to discuss component contributions to COAs: Capabilities required to accomplish joint critical tasks at decisive

points Joint/service operational concepts which could be employed Strengths, vulnerabilities, and risks Command arrangements Support and sustainment requirements Key Points. Branches are contingency options, built into the basic plan, to adjust

ongoing operations as required to ensure the overall operational design remains valid.

Branch plans are developed during the Concept Development Stage of the OPP based on situations recognised during COA war gaming and to account for assumptions that may prove to be inaccurate.

Branch planning addresses eventualities arising from foreseeable enemy actions or other changes in the area of operations.

Branch plans provide appreciation of Time, Force and Space relationships and describes sequence of actions to reduce risk and exploit opportunities.

The JOPG should help the commander identify decision points in the operation for implementation of the branch plan. They should identify the essential information he will need to make the decisions. These should be included in the CEIRs.


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Back-up Material Enclosure

Branch Plan Definition E-1 Branch Plan Operational Design Model E-2


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E-1 Branch Plan Definition

E-2 Branch Plan Operational Design Model