2009

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01Water and climate change – recent concerns

Sten Bergström

The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

2009

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01Three main concerns:

Water availablity

See level rise

Climate and energy

2009

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01Changed water availability according to 12 climate models

Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutikof, Eds., 2008: Climate Change and Water. TechnicalPaper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp.0

2009

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01Water resources today

Future change

Annualrunoffchange(mm)

Hadley/A2

Annualrunoffchange(mm)

Echam/A2

Annualrunoffchange(mm)

Hadley/B2

Annualrunoffchange(mm)

Echam/B2

2009

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01

IPCC (2007) statement on sea level rise until 2100

The sea level will rise 18 - 59 cm until 2100

+ some 20 cm for local effects in the North Sea

”Dynamical processes related to ice flow not includedin current models but suggested by recent observationscould increase the vulnerability of the ice sheets towarming, increasing future sea level rise. Understandingof these processes is limited and there is no consensuson their magnitude.”

May lead to additional 20 cm

Ny klimatvetenskap 2006-2009

Source: Genomgång av forskning sedan IPCC AR4/WGI 2007Markku Rummukainen Erland Källén

Modelled and observed extension of the Arctic sea ice

xx2007 2008

2009

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01West Antarctic warming

Steig et al. 2008

2009

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01http://www.deltacommissie.com/en/advies

”It is the Delta Committee’s conclusion that a regional sea level rise of 0.65 to 1.3 meters should be expected for 2100, and from 2 to 4 meters in 2200. This includes the effect of land subsidence. These valuesrepresent plausible upper limits based on the latest scientific insights. ”

2009

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01

The Dutch Delta Committee, 2008http://www.deltacommissie.com/en/advies

Source: U.N. Population Division

Megacities 1950Tokyo

Shanghai

Moscow

London

Paris

Rhine-Ruhr

New York

Buenos Aires

Population Trends

Seoul

Moscow

London

Paris

Rhine-Ruhr

New York

Buenos Aires

Tokyo

Los Angeles

Mexico City

Guatemala City

Toronto

Chicago

Lima

Bogotá

Santiago

Sao Paulo

Rio de Janeiro

Belo Horizonte

Luanda

Abidjan Lagos

Istanbul

Cairo

Baghdad

Jeddah

Tehran Bandung

Jakarta

Osaka

Ho Chi Minh City

BangkokYangon

Kabul

Surat

Lahore

Delhi

Mumbai

Kolkata

Dhaka

Karachi Beijing

Tianjin

Shanghai

Megacities 2015

Source:U.N. Population Division

Population worldwide in cities

1950 30%

2007 50%

2030 60%

Population Trends

2009

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01Even Stockholm has small margins…

2009

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01The catchment of Lake Mälaren

Stockholm

2009

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01

A flood in Stockholm in 1924

2009

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01Stockholm today

Foto: Sten Bergström, SMHI

2009

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01Uplift of land in Scandinavia

2009

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01Sea levels in Stockholm since 1889

Skeppsholmen 1889-2008

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Vat

tens

tånd

i lo

kalt

höjd

syst

em [c

m]

linjär regression 1889-2008linjär regression 1990-2008årsmedelvärden

2009

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01Porjus idag Hydropower-

a part of the solution?

2009

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01Nordic hydropower in % of total electricityproduction

Norway 100% 123 TWh

Sweden 45% 66 TWh

Finland 12% 8 TWh

(approximate figures)

Nordic-Baltic projects on the impact of climate change on renewable energy

To order http://www.norden.org/pub/sk/showpub.asp?pubnr=2007:003

• Hydropower production is expected to increase in the Nordic area (But this is not the case for the rest of Europe!)

• The annual rythm in river flow will be morefavourable for production

• Impact on dam safety is not self-evident and has to be analysed carefully

• The development of the future European energymarket will have strong impact on the Nordic hydropower industry

Conclusions from the CE-project

2009

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01

Wind power is on the move – it requireshydropower for regulation!

2009

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01

Regional Regional modellingmodelling

LocalLocal--regionalregionalstudiesstudies

Global modellingGlobal modelling

Downscaling and uncertainty

2009

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01

New regional climate scenarios from ENSEMBLES

1961-205025kmHadCM3Q0HadCM3Q0A1BHC

1961-205025kmHIRHAMARPEGEA1BDMI

1961-205025kmCLMHadCM3A1BETHZ

1961-205025kmPROMESHadCM3A1BUCLM

1961-205025kmHIRHAMBCMA1BMETNO1961-209925kmC4I-RCA3HadCM3A1BC4I

1961-205025kmC4I-RCA3ECHAM5 (3)A2C4I

1961-210025kmREMOECHAM5 (3)A1BMPI

1961-205025kmCRCMCGCM3A1BOURANOS

1961-210025kmRACMOECHAM5 (3)A1BKNMI

1961-205025kmAladinARPEGEA1BCNRM

1961-210050kmRCA3ECHAM5 (3)A1BSMHI

1961-210050kmRCA3ECHAM5 (1)A1BSMHITimeperiodResolutionRegional modelForcing GCMScenarioInstitute

2009

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01Seasonal cycle of monthly mean changes in precipitation under the A1B emission scenario by the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) in southern Sweden. (Global climate models)

Source: Lind och Kjellström. Report RMK 113, SMHI, 2009

2009

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01One last question:

How can we develop a strategy for risk assessment and climate adaptation that, in a reasonable way, accountsfor all the inherent uncertainties in the climate projections?

2009

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01

the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability, 2007