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Sulfate Discussion WRAP Meeting – Tucson, AZ January 10/11, 2006. Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc. Overview. How much of baseline regional haze in WRAP states is due to sulfate? What are the historical trends in sulfate concentrations? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Sulfate DiscussionSulfate Discussion
WRAP Meeting – Tucson, AZWRAP Meeting – Tucson, AZJanuary 10/11, 2006January 10/11, 2006
Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.
OverviewOverview
How much of baseline regional haze in How much of baseline regional haze in WRAP states is due to sulfate?WRAP states is due to sulfate?
What are the historical trends in sulfate What are the historical trends in sulfate concentrations?concentrations?
What are the contributions of natural and What are the contributions of natural and manmade emissions to sulfate?manmade emissions to sulfate?
How are emissions expected to change by How are emissions expected to change by 2018?2018?
How is visibility expected to change?How is visibility expected to change? How does this compare with the glidepath?How does this compare with the glidepath? Selected case studiesSelected case studies
Class I and Other IMPROVE
Monitoring Locations
N on-C lass I A rea
Class I A rea
AG TI1
BAD L1
BAN D 1
BLIS1
BO AP1
BR C A1
BR ID 1
BR LA1
C ABI1
C AN Y1C API1
C H IR 1
C LPE1
C O G O 1 C O R I1
C R LA1C R M O 1
D EVA1D O M E1
FLAT1
FO PE1G AM O 1
G IC L1
G LAC 1
G R BA1
G R C A2
G R SA1
G U M O 1
H EC A1
H ILL1
H O O V1
IKBA1
JAR B1
JO SH 1
KAIS1
KALM 1
LABE1
LAVO 1
LO ST1M ELA1
M EVE1
M O H O 1
M O N T1
M O R A1
M O ZI1
N O AB1
N O C A1
N O C H 1
O LYM 1
O R PI1
PASA1
PEFO 1
PIN N 1
PO R E1
Q U VA1
R AFA1
R ED W 1
R O M O 1
SAC R 1
SAG A1SAG O 1
SAG U 1
SAPE1
SAW E1
SAW T1
SEQ U 1
SIAN 1
SN PA1 SPO K1
STAR 1 SU LA1
SYC A1
TH BA1
TH R O 1TH SI1
TO N T1
TR IN 1
U LBE1
W EM I1
W H IT1
W H PA1
W H PE1
W H R I1
W IC A1
YELL2
YO SE1
ZIO N 1
D EN A1
TR C R 1TU XE1
H ALE1
H AVO 1
SIM E1
IMPROVE Monitoring IMPROVE Monitoring LocationsLocations
Baseline Extinction: 20% Baseline Extinction: 20% Worst DaysWorst Days
Baseline Extinction: 20% Best Baseline Extinction: 20% Best DaysDays
Baseline Sulfate: 20% Worst Baseline Sulfate: 20% Worst DaysDays
Historical Trends in 20% Worst Historical Trends in 20% Worst Days: Total and Sulfate Days: Total and Sulfate
ExtinctionExtinction 16 year trends (1989 – 2004) required 16 year trends (1989 – 2004) required
12 complete years of data12 complete years of data 8 year trends (1997 – 2004) required 6 8 year trends (1997 – 2004) required 6
complete years of datacomplete years of data Theil slopes (MmTheil slopes (Mm-1-1/yr) calculated for all /yr) calculated for all
sites with sufficient datasites with sufficient data P-values of 0.2 required to identify P-values of 0.2 required to identify
trend as significanttrend as significant Changes in monitoring or analytical Changes in monitoring or analytical
protocol over the years may affect protocol over the years may affect trendstrends
16-yr 16-yr TrendsTrends
8-yr Trends8-yr Trends
Historical Trends, 20% Worst Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Mount Rainier NPDays Mount Rainier NP
16-yr decrease in Bext
8-yr decrease in SO4
Historical Trends, 20% Worst Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Chiricahua NMDays Chiricahua NM
8-yr decrease in SO4
8-yr increase in Bext
Historical Trends, 20% Worst Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Redwood NPDays Redwood NP
16-yr decrease in Bext
16-yr decrease in SO4
Historical Trends, 20% Worst Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Rocky Mountain NPDays Rocky Mountain NP
8-yr increase in Bext
16-yr decrease in SO4
Anthropogenic and Natural Anthropogenic and Natural SO2 Emissions by State SO2 Emissions by State
(Plan02)(Plan02)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Ariz
ona
(110
K)
Cal
iforn
ia(6
9K)
Col
orad
o(1
12K
)
Idah
o(3
4K)
Mon
tana
(47K
)
Nev
ada
(67K
)
New
Mex
ico
(84K
)
N. D
akot
a(1
63K
)
Ore
gon
(46K
)
S. D
akot
a(1
2K)
Uta
h(5
2K)
Was
hing
ton
(72K
)
Wyo
min
g(1
52K
)
ton
s/ye
ar
Anthropogenic
Point
Area
Off-Road Mobile
On-Road Mobile
Offshore
Oil & Gas
Fire
Natural
Fire
Total WRAP Region SO2 and Total WRAP Region SO2 and NOx Emissions (2002, 2018, NOx Emissions (2002, 2018,
and difference)and difference)Total WRAP Region SO2 Emissions
(2002, 2018, and difference)
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Ton
s/Y
ear
Nonroad(no CA, CMV)
57,773 2,920 -54,853
Onroad 30,688 5,988 -24,700
Area 103,577 124,136 20,559
Stationary 824,260 832,702 8,442
2002 2018 2018-2002
Total WRAP Region NOx Emissions (2002, 2018, and difference)
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
Ton
s/Y
ear
Nonroad(no CA, CMV)
639,921 423,400 -216,521
Onroad 1,607,593 523,067 -1,084,526
Area 404,749 617,116 212,368
Stationary 1,058,743 1,107,710 48,967
2002 2018 2018-2002
All SOAll SO22 Emissions Emissions
Gridded Model Results for Gridded Model Results for Annual Average Sulfate MassAnnual Average Sulfate Mass Annual average modeled mass (not Annual average modeled mass (not
20% worst days)20% worst days) 2002 and 20182002 and 2018 Difference (2018 – 2002)Difference (2018 – 2002) Ratio (2018/2002)Ratio (2018/2002)
Modeled 2002 Modeled 2002 SO4SO4
Modeled 2018 Modeled 2018 SO4SO4
Baseline and Projected 2018 Baseline and Projected 2018 Extinction: 20% Worst DaysExtinction: 20% Worst Days
2000 – 2004 Baseline Extinction
Projected 2018 Extinction
Baseline and Projected 2018 Baseline and Projected 2018 Sulfate Extinction: 20% Worst Sulfate Extinction: 20% Worst
DaysDays
2000 – 2004 Baseline Sulfate Extinction
Projected 2018 Sulfate Extinction
Baseline dv and Projected Baseline dv and Projected 2018 dv Reduction: 20% Worst 2018 dv Reduction: 20% Worst
DaysDays
2000 – 2004 Baseline Deciviews
Projected 2018 Deciview Reduction
Variation in Baseline Visibility(Standard Deviation/Mean)
20% W orst Days
0% - 4%
4% - 8%
8% - 12%
> 12%
N /A
Variation in Baseline Deciview Variation in Baseline Deciview ValuesValues
Percent of 2018 Target Reduction Percent of 2018 Target Reduction AchievedAchieved
Mount Rainier, WAMount Rainier, WA
2002 SO2 Emissions: Mount 2002 SO2 Emissions: Mount RainierRainier
2018 SO2 Reductions: Mount 2018 SO2 Reductions: Mount RainierRainier
Model Comparison: Mount Model Comparison: Mount Rainier, WARainier, WA
MORA1 Worst 20%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
obs02 plan02a
bEX
T (
1/M
m) bCM
bSOILbECbOCbNO3bSO4
Mount Rainier, WA 2002 IMPROVE Data
2002 Model Results
2018 Model Changes: Mount 2018 Model Changes: Mount Rainier, WARainier, WA
Bext Response (base18a - plan02a) at MORA1 on Worst 20% Days
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
14 17 110 119 131 176 188 194 203 206 224 227 233 236 242 257 269 281 287 290 296 302 326 Avg
Julian Day
Del
ta B
ext
(1/M
m) bCM
bSOIL
bEC
bOC
bNO3
bSO4
Trends: Mount Rainier, WATrends: Mount Rainier, WA
Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide PathMount Rainier NP - 20% Worst Days
17.62 16.97
15.3513.73
12.11
10.49
8.877.90
16.68
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064
Year
Ha
zin
ess
In
de
x (D
eci
vie
ws)
Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1 Prediction
Baseline Variability (dv)
Baseline Variability by Species
Glide Path: Mount Rainier, WAGlide Path: Mount Rainier, WA
Hells Canyon, OR/IDHells Canyon, OR/ID
2002 SO2 Emissions: Hells 2002 SO2 Emissions: Hells CanyonCanyon
2018 SO2 Reductions: Hells 2018 SO2 Reductions: Hells CanyonCanyon
Model Comparison: Hells Model Comparison: Hells Canyon, ORCanyon, OR
HECA1 Worst 20%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
obs02 plan02a
bEX
T (
1/M
m) bCM
bSOILbECbOCbNO3bSO4
Hells Canyon, OR/ID 2002 IMPROVE Data
2002 Model Results
2018 Model Changes: Hells 2018 Model Changes: Hells Canyon, ORCanyon, OR
Bext Response (base18a - plan02a) at HECA1 on Worst 20% Days
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2 5 11 17 20 32 35 38 44 47 65 137 200 239 281 305 311 320 332 335 344 Avg
Julian Day
Del
ta B
ext
(1/M
m) bCM
bSOIL
bEC
bOC
bNO3
bSO4
Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide PathHells Canyon Wilderness - 20% Worst Days
17.5416.86
15.15
13.45
11.75
10.04
8.347.32
16.85
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064
Year
Ha
zin
ess
In
de
x (D
eci
vie
ws)
Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1 Prediction
Baseline Variability (dv)
Baseline Variability by Species
Glide Path: Hells Canyon, Glide Path: Hells Canyon, OR/IDOR/ID