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2011. Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved.

The concepts and ideas submitted to you herein are the intellectual property ofSynovate Ltd. They are stric tly of confidential nature and are submitted to you underthe understanding that they are to be considered by you in the strictest of confidenceand that no use shall be made of the said concepts and ideas, includingcommunication to any third party without Synovates express prior consent and/orpayment of related professional services fees in full.

SPEC (Social, Political,

Economic and Cultural)

BarometerJuly 2011 Findings

Date: 20th July 2011


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Scope of the Study

The objectives of the study were as follows;

To establish the most pressing problem facing Kenyans nowcompared to 3 months ago.

To identify Kenyans views on the factors hindering theimplementation of The New Constitution.

To assess the Presidential candidate and Political Party of choice.

To understand what qualities Kenyans are looking for a Presidentialcandidate.


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Methodology


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Poll MethodologyPoll Methodology

Dates of pollingDates of polling June 30thJune 30th July 8th,July 8th, 20112011

Sample SizeSample Size 2000 respondents2000 respondents

Sampling methodologySampling methodology Random, MultiRandom, Multi--stage stratified using PPSstage stratified using PPS

UniverseUniverse Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in UrbanKenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urbanand Rural areasand Rural areas

Data collectionData collection

methodologymethodology

Sampling errorSampling error +/+/--2.2 with a 95% confidence level2.2 with a 95% confidence level

Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the

household level


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Most serious

problems facing

Kenya today


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Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

In your opinion, what is the most serious problem

facing Kenya today? (by Total)

+33%


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Prices of key commodities

Commodity April 2011 July 2011

Maize flour (1 kg) Ksh 40 45 Kshs 67 80

Dry Maize (90 Kg bag) Ksh 2,000 2,600 Ksh 4,000 4,800

Sugar (1 kg) Ksh 94 98 Ksh 100 130

1 Litre Cooking Oil Ksh 100 130 Ksh 210 245

Fuel (1 litre petrol) Ksh 104 Ksh 115.39

Fuel (1 litre diesel) Ksh 94.53 Ksh 106.12

Kerosene (1 litre) Ksh 84.53 Ksh 86. 16

Milk Ksh 28 Ksh 28 32

Bread (500mg) Ksh 32 - 34 Ksh 38 40

1 $ Ksh 83.55 Ksh 89.50

Source: Local shops / retail supermarkets collected by Synovate


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Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

Within the past 6 months, do you think the level of

corruption in Kenya has increased, decreased or stayed

the same. ..

(by total)


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86% 81% 51% 53% 56% 53%

Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

% indicating these institutions are

very committed/somewhat committed

How committed are the following institutions and/or

personalities in fighting corruption?

(By total)


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How committed are the following institutions and/or

personalities in fighting corruption?

(By total)

86% 81% 51% 53% 56% 53%


26%

22%

12%

43%

11%9%

41%43%

42%

35%37%

33%

28%31%

38%

13%

45%

42%

5% 5%7%

8%6%

14%

1% 1% 1% 1%

Prime Minister President Vice President KAAC(Kenya AntiCorruption

Commission)

Parliament The AttorneyGeneral

Very committed Somewhat commited Not at all committed Don't know No response


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Challenges facing the

Implementation of the

New Constitution


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Only a few Bills have been signed into Law with

about a month to the 26th August 2011

deadline.

Crucial bills yet to be passed:

Political Parties Bill

Elections Bill

Devolved Government Bill

Citizenship Bill

Ethics and Anti-Corruption BillBudget and Finance Bill

National Police Service Commission Bill

Independent Policing and Oversight Authority Bill


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What is the main difficulty you foresee in implementing the

New Constitution? by Total


Top 5 perceived difficulties

6%

6%

17%

20%

34%

Contentious issues

Lack of Citizens' awareness

Lack of cohesion

Corruption

Political interests / Lack of political will


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How would you rate the overall or general performance of the

coalition government over the last 3 months?

% who highly approve + somewhat approve


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Which political party do you feel closest to if any? by Total


33%

23%

9%

3% 3%2% 2%

1% 1%

23%


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Which political party do you feel closest to if any? -Time

Series

43%41%

48%

38%

41%

33%

7% 8% 7%

2%

7%9%

21%22% 21%

18%

21%23%

1% 2%4%

2% 3% 3%4% 5%

3%

4%

13%

9%

22%

21%17%

36%

14%

23%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Mar 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jul 2011

ODM ODM Kenya PNU Narc Kenya Other None


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IfODM which group withinODM, do you support? by Total

Base: n=650 (Those saying ODM)

RailaGroup, 80%

RutoGroup, 18%

Not sure, 1%

Noresponse, 1%


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Constitutional Requirements on the Presidency

Article 137(1d) : The nomination processA person is qualified for nomination as a Presidential Candidate if

he or she is endorsed by not fewer than 2,000 voters from each ofa majority of the Counties ( in at least 24 Counties before beingendorsed by the electoral commission)

Article 138(4) : Declaration of winner

A candidate shall be declared President if the candidate receivesa) More than half(over 50%) of all votes cast in the election andb) At least 25% of the votes cast in each of more than half of the

Counties (47 Counties i.e. 24 Counties)


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Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were

held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a

candidate? by Total


32%

21%

11% 11%

5%3%

2%1% 1%

6

%

7%

RailaOdinga

UhuruKenyatta

KalonzoMusyoka

WilliamRuto

MarthaKarua

EugeneWamalwa

PeterKenneth

MusaliaMudavadi

KennethMarende

Noresponse

Don't know


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36%

36%

48%

42%38%

32%

12%12% 12% 12%

13%11%

8% 8%

14% 14%

18%

21%

7%

11%10%

4%

8%

11%

6%5%

6%5%

6%5%

4%

1% 1%2%

3% 3%

11%14%

4%

16%

8%

13%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Mar 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jul 2011

Raila Odinga Kalonzo Musyoka Uhuru Kenyatta

Willam Ruto Martha Karua Eugene Wamalwa

Others None


Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were

held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a

candidate? by Total


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Leadership Attribute Context

One who has good leadership skillsVisionary, responsible, principled, hardworking, courageous,impartial, authoritative, mature and builds unity amongKenyans [article 131 (1e); Symbol of unity ]

A person of integrity Not corrupt, transparent and trustworthy

An individual who is a reformist

Will bring about change in Kenya, is ready for change, willinitiate reforms, e.g. implementing the new constitutiondiverse opinions, has progressive ideas, will streamline thepolitical landscape

One who is mindful of Kenyans welfare

Helpful to people , cares about the peopleswelfare, addresses the issues pertaining the high cost ofliving, understands peoples problems, can defendscitizens, concerned with youth welfare and represent theirinterests

One who is development consciousHas good development ideas, good development record,meaning that he/she action oriented

Someone who is young Young, newer generation of politicians

Why would you vote for your preferred presidential

candidate? (top 5)


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Why would you vote for your preferred presidential

candidate?

Base: n=1,900 (those who name a candidate they would vote for )


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The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample

size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error

attributed to sampling and other random effects of this polls sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95%

confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target population

opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 30th June - 8th July, 2011

To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to

size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately

higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 56 administrative and geographical

districts in Kenya

The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because theyallow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for

quality control.

POLLMETHODOLOGY


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These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as

respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews.

The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random

starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4

households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was

then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known

as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. Incases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3

callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field

interviewer substituted that household for another.

The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended

questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided,including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked.

Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum

of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers calls, while the field

managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing

Poll Methodology (Cont..)


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For further enquiries contact

Maggie IreriManaging DirectorSynovate Kenya

Tel:44

50190 -6

[email protected]

or

Victor Rateng

Project Manager, Opinion PollsSynovate KenyaTel: 4450190 - 6

[email protected]

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