8/8/2019 Tate Reeves Polling Memo

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MEMORANDOM TO REEVES CAMPAIGN LEADERSHIP

FROM: WES ANDERSON

DATE: 3/1/10

RE: ANALYSIS OF STATEWIDE SURVEY FINDINGS

The following Mississippi statewide survey was conducted by OnMessage Inc. Telephone interviews were conducted February 2223, 2010. This survey consisted of 500 likely Republican primary election

voters statewide. The survey was stratified by county to reflect historic turnout trends. The margin of

error for this survey is +/ 4.4%.

The findings are very encouraging and strongly suggest a match up between Reeves and State Senator

Billy Hewes would greatly favor Reeves.

First, lets review the images of the two potential candidates.

State Treasurer Tate Reeves is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by only 3% of the

primary electorate. As a statewide office holder, Reeves is well known in all of the key markets

in the state. His strongest support is found in Jackson, the largest media market in the state where 57% have a favorable opinion of Reeves. Statewide, 66% of voters approve of the job

that Reeves is doing while only 7% disapprove. State Senator Billy Hewes is barely known in the state with only 16% having a favorable opinion

while 3% hold an unfavorable opinion. Across all media markets, Hewes is unknown with the

only exception being his home market of Biloxi where he is viewed favorably by 43% and

unfavorably by 2%. Of course, like any statewide candidate, Hewes' weak name ID could be

remedied but it would require significant resources just to reach parity with Reeves.

Tate Reeves experience and performance as State Treasurer leaves GOP primary voters inclined to give

him even more responsibility. In fact, in a hypothetical race for Lt. Governor, Reeves begins as the

frontrunner in every conceivable potential race. For instance:

In a hypothetical two way race with Hewes, Reeves starts with a majority of the vote and a huge 50% to 12% lead.

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Reeves leads by at least 33 points in every major media market except BiloxiGulfport (a market in which Reeves trails by only 5 points). For example, in the critical Jackson media market, Reeves leads Hewes 67% to 7%. This is driven by a lead of 70%9%, 64%7%, and 76%5% in Hinds, Rankin, and Madison Counties, respectiv

ely.

ds among every age group by huge margins, as well as leading among both men and

rs 65% of those voters strongly suggests

public and private sectors is a perfect match for oter expectations heading into next year.

CONCLUSION

Reeves overwhelming support in the Jackson market, which makes up 36% of the total GOPprimary vote, gives him a base of support that would be very difficult for any other candidate to overcome.

When we look at the area demographics, we find that it does not matter whether you live in arural area or suburban/urban setting, voters still flock to Reeves with margins of anywhere

from +20 to +53. By ideology, Reeves also has large leads among voters who describe themselves as somewhat

or very conservative. Self identified conservatives make up 81% of the GOP primary electorate.

Reeves leawomen.

Looking at those with a favorable opinion of both candidates, 56% say that they would vote for Reeves, and with those that have an opinion of both, 65% say that they would vote for Reeves.

Historically, the ballot measure among those voters who have an opinion of both candidates is

a strong leading indicator. The fact that Reeves garnehardness to his support that would not easily erode.

When asked if they would rather vote for a candidate with business experience or a candidate with political experience, the voters choose business experience 50% to 34%, with another 8%saying both. Reeves experience in both thev

on

potential matchups, Reeves begins the 2011 election cycle in an extremely formidable position.

es

ion

e Treasurer Tate Reeves is well positioned to be the Republican nominee for Lt. Governor in 2011.

State Treasurer Tate Reeves has very strong job approval rating throughout all regions of the state and asignificant base of support in the largest media market (Jackson). With $1,200,000 in cash on handthe 2009 campaign finance reports and a strong starting position in all

In a hypothetical matchup with Senator Hewes, Reeves holds a more than a significant advantage. He isa known commodity and voters like what they see. In a primary race for Lt. Governor, Senator Hew

has a significant

disadvantage

to

overcome.

He

will

have

to

spend

significant

resources

to

become

relevant to the voters, and that is just to get to an equal starting position with Reeves. Every indicatfrom these numbers points to the fact that Stat