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Brian Novak

Danny Ohrn

Michael Cleaver

Emily Ramage

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• Strength

• Power

• Frequency

• Duration

Al Gore says WHAT??????

Annual Maximum Wind Velocity and Temperature Deviation (1900-2006)

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Devia

tio

n f

rom

1900 T

em

pera

ture

Level

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Maxim

m W

ind

Velo

cit

y (

Kn

ots

)

Temp. Deviation

Wind Velocity

However, the actual hurricane data tells a different story…

Hurricane Intensity as a Function of Maximum Wind Velocity

Annual Maximum Wind Velocity

y = -0.0154x + 104.36

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1850 1900 1950 2000

Year

Vel

oci

ty (

Kn

ots

)

Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 203.394

Chance Probability 0.0055

Maximum Wind Velocity by Decade

y = -0.0092x + 92.554

01020

30405060

708090

1850 1900 1950 2000

Year

Win

d V

elo

cit

y (

Kn

ots

)

Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 3.4198 Critical Value for p=0.01 32.00Chance Probability 0.9997

Annual Maximum Wind Velocity (1851-1899)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900Year

Win

d V

elo

city

(K

no

ts)

Annual Maximum Wind Velocity (1900-1949)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950

Year

Win

d V

elo

city

(K

no

ts)

Annual Maximum Wind Velocity ()

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1950 1970 1990Year

Win

d V

elo

city

(K

no

ts)

Slopes of Expected Value Regressions

1851-1899 -0.0722 Knots/Year

1900-1949 0.707 Knots/Year

1950-2006 -0.219 Knots/Year

Minimum Central Pressure and Temperature Deviation from 1900

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91

Year after 1900

Tem

p.

Dev

iati

on

880

900

920

940

960

980

1000

1020

Cen

tral

Pre

ssu

re (

Mil

lib

ars)

Temp. Deviation

Central Pressure

Hurricane Intensity as a Function of Minimum Central Pressure

Annual Average Minimum Central Pressure

y = 0.1363x + 708.27

920

930

940

950

960

970

980

990

1000

1010

1850 1900 1950 2000

Year

Ce

ntr

al P

res

su

re (

Mill

iba

rs)



Average Minimum Central Pressure by Decade

y = 0.1331x + 714.89

950

955

960

965

970

975

980

985

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Year

Ce

ntr

al P

res

su

re (

Mill

iba

rs)


Critical Value for p=0.01 32.00


Annual Average Minimum Central Pressure (1852-1899)

920

930

940

950

960

970

980

990

1000

1010

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900

Year

Ce

ntr

al

Pre

ss

ure

(M

illi

ba

rs)

Annual Average Minimum Central Pressure(1900-1949)

920930940950960970980990

10001010

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950

Year

Cen

tral

Pre

ssur

e (M

illib

ars)


945

950

955

960

965

970

975

980

985

990

995

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Ce

ntr

al P

res

sure

(M

illib

ars

)


1851-1899 0.1754 Millibars/Year




920

930

940

950

960

970

980

990

1000

1010

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900

Year

Ce

ntr

al

Pre

ss

ure

(M

illi

ba

rs)

Annual Average Minimum Central Pressure(1900-1949)

920930940950960970980990

10001010

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950

Year

Cen

tral

Pre

ssur

e (M

illib

ars)


945

950

955

960

965

970

975

980

985

990

995

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Ce

ntr

al P

res

sure

(M

illib

ars

)





Landfall: A MeasureMeasure of a Storm’s Power

Hurricane FormationHurricane Formation

• The Three Requirements for Hurricane The Three Requirements for Hurricane FormationFormation

• Over Land, Hurricanes DieOver Land, Hurricanes Die

Our DataOur Data

• The Percentage of Measurable Storms that Reached Land

• The Number of Days on Land Per Land-bound Storm

Percentage of Measureable Storms That Reach Land

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Time (years)

Perc

enta

ge t

hat

Rea

ch L

and

(x10

0)

Average Number of Days on Land Per Land-bound Storm per Year

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Time (years)

Tim

e o

n L

an

d (

days)

Average Number of Days on Land Per Land-bound Storm per Year

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Time (years)

Tim

e o

n L

an

d (

days)

•Standard Deviation was 0.20 daysStandard Deviation was 0.20 days•A ChiA Chi22 Test Determined X Test Determined X22 = 0.24 with 14 degrees of freedom = 0.24 with 14 degrees of freedomCritical Value = 10.83, The null hypothesis cannot be rejected!Critical Value = 10.83, The null hypothesis cannot be rejected!

Average Number of Days on Land Per Land-bound Storm per 10 Years

y = 0.0029x - 4.1732

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Time (years)

Tim

e o

n L

an

d (

days)

Landfall ConclusionsLandfall Conclusions

• There is no linear correlation between time and percentage of storms that reach land

• The average number of days on land per land-bound storm

Frequency of Damage

• Insurance Industry takes notice -Al Gore• Swiss re sigma report• More People in Hazard areas -IWTC report

Frequency of Hurricanes

Chi squared value .125254642

Storms reaching Hurricane Strength

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8

1850 1900 1950 2000

decade

Sto

rms

as H

urr

ican

es

Major Hurricanes

Absolute #’s increasing

Chi squared Value .738022

Major Hurricanes per Year

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1850 1900 1950 2000

Year

Ca

teg

ory

4&

5 s

torm

s

Temperature since 1900

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1850 1900 1950 2000

Year

Dev

iati

on

Number of Major Hurricanes since '44

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year (5 year average)

Nu

mb

er

Category 4&5’s have doubled in the Last Year1 -Al Gore

Chi Squared Value 3.449001

Frequency

• Increase in destructiveness not correlated

• Frequency of major hurricanes is increasing

• Shows some correlation to temperature

• Al’s short term scare

Duration Categories:

1) Season Duration

2) Storm• All Storms• In Hurricane Status• Longest Yearly Storm

10 Year Average Season Duration 1851-2006

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Time (starting year of each 10 year period)

Nu

mb

er

of

Days o

f S

easo

n

Chi-squared: 35.94

Critical value, 16 df, p = 0.001: 39.25

Average Storm Duration vs. Temperature Deviation 1900-2006

10 Year Average Temperature Variation from 1900 Average vs. 10 Yr Avg. Storm Duration

y = 0.0187x + 28.365

y = 0.0072x - 0.2984

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Time (year)

10 Y

r A

vg.

Tem

per

atu

re D

evia

tio

n f

rom

19

00 A

vera

ge

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

10 Y

ear

Ave

rag

e S

torm

Du

rati

on

(#

of

ob

serv

atio

ns)

10 yr avg deviation from 1900 avg

10 yr avg storm duration (# of observation at 6 hour intervals)

Linear (10 yr avg storm duration (# of observation at 6 hour intervals))

Linear (10 yr avg deviation from 1900 avg)

Average Temp Deviation from 1900 Average vs. Average Duration of Storms

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Time (year)

Tem

peart

ure

Devia

tio

n f

rom

1900 A

vera

ge

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

Avera

ge D

ura

tio

n o

f S

torm

s (

# o

f o

bserv

ati

on

s)

Tempt Deviation from 1900 Avg. Avg. Duration of Storms (# of obs.)

Chi squared: 191

Critical Value, 11 df, p = 0.001: 31.26

Average Storm Duration as Hurricane vs. Temperature Variation 1900-2006

10 Yr Avg Temp Deviation from 1900 Avg vs. 10 Yr Avg Hurricane Length

y = -0.0137x + 15.88

y = 0.0072x - 0.2984

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

10 Y

r A

vg T

emp

Dev

iati

on

fro

m 1

900

Avg

0

5

10

15

20

25

10 Y

r A

vg L

eng

th o

f H

urr

ican

es (

# o

f o

bse

rvat

ion

s)

10 yr avg deviation from 1900 avg temp 10 yr avg hurricane length

Linear (10 yr avg hurricane length) Linear (10 yr avg deviation from 1900 avg temp)

Deviation from 1900 Avg. Temp vs. Avg. Length of Storm in Hurricane Status

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Tem

p D

evia

tio

n f

rom

190

0 A

vg

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Avg

Len

gth

of

Sto

rm i

n H

urr

ican

e S

tatu

s (#

of

ob

serv

atio

ns)

deviation from 1900 avg temp total # obs of storm in hurricane status

Longest Yearly Storm vs. Temperature Deviation 1900-2006

Temp Deviation from 1900 Average vs. Longest Storm of Year

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Tem

p D

evia

tio

n f

rom

190

0 A

vg

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Lo

ng

est

Sto

rm o

f Y

ear

(# o

f o

bse

rvat

ion

s)

deviation from 1900 avg temp longest storm of year (# obs)

10 Yr Avg Temp Deviation from 1900 Avg vs. 10 Yr Avg of Longest Yearly Storm

y = -0.0293x + 53.895

y = 0.0072x - 0.2984

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

10 Y

r A

vg T

emp

Dev

iati

on

fro

m 1

900

Avg

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

10 Y

r A

vg o

f L

on

ges

t Y

earl

y S

torm

(#

of

ob

serv

atio

ns)

10 yr avg temp deviation from 1900 avg 10 yr longest yearly storm avg

Linear (10 yr longest yearly storm avg) Linear (10 yr avg temp deviation from 1900 avg)

Duration Conclusions

• Season duration shows a positive correlation over time.

• Data does not support a relationship between storm duration and global temperature increase since 1900.

CONCLUSIONS

• Data does not consistently support a pattern of increased frequency and strength of hurricanes over time.

• Linear relationships remain linear despite increasing temperature trends.

• Discrepancies in measurement techniques?• Intricate dynamics of hurricane formation?• Single variable data modeling techniques?

References

Raw hurricane data from Greg Bothun’s link on Blackboard.uoregon.edu

Atlantic Tropical Storm Tracking by Year

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/

1Lovgren , Stefan. "Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" Movie: Fact or Hype?.” National Geographic News. May 25, 2006. National Geographic. 24 Apr 2007 <http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/060524-global-warming.html>.

IWTC Statement "Global Warming and Hurricanes." Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Dec. 7, 2007. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 24 Apr 2007 <http://www.gfdl.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html>.

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