TECHNO economic ANALYSIS - ??Flex leg muscles for walking, or ... •Interfacing with sophisticated sensors in standard ways ... pneumatic, hydraulic, light, coolants Systems

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  • Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2006

    SCF Associates Ltd

    All rights reserved No reproduction without permissionsimon.forge@whsmithnet.co.uk

    Competitiveness in Emerging Competitiveness in Emerging Robot Technologies Robot Technologies

    (CEROBOT)(CEROBOT)The opportunities in safety and The opportunities in safety and

    robots for SMEsrobots for SMEs

    Simon ForgeColin Blackman

    TECHNO economic ANALYSIS

    mailto:simon.forge@whsmithnet.co.uk

  • Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 2

    SenseEg, Detect presence of organs, using vision system with pattern recognition, or

    Detect obstacle, or threat with lidar, or

    Detect bone tissue, not soft tissue with sonar, or

    And

    Detect/ confirm position of limbs or end effectors, using stepper motor feedback

    ThinkWarn and/or act immediately

    Eg, Supply energy to actuators and tools for arm, or

    Flex leg muscles for walking, or

    Give haptic feedback to control arm for surgeon for remote surgery

    Eg, Execute PC-controller programme for this trigger input, with stored programme, or

    Process inputs in a decision and planning module ( eg with simple AI such as a neural network) or

    Obey instructions previously given verbally by a human, interpreted and stored in run-time memory

    Act

    Basic robot functions - sense, think and act

  • Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 3

    HighHighLowNanorobotics

    MedMedLowSwarms and co-operating robot teams

    LowLow/MedMandatoryPower suppliesMedMedMedGripping/placingMed/HighMedLowBio-mimetic movement MediumMediumMediumMobility & motionMedMedMed/highPositioning systemsMed/HighMedHighVision comprehension systems HighMed/highLowCognitive and learning systemsMediumMed/highHigh /mandatorySystem integrationHighHighHighHuman interactionHighHighHighSensor fusion

    Complexity (as barrier to entry)

    Added value

    Likelihood of use in applications

    Key robotics technologies

    Future development directions of robots lie with 12 key technology areas

  • Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 4

    Future technological developmentFurther market expansion requires developments in certain key areas:

    Biggest challenge - software- must be robust and open (eco-system), self-healing autonomic, standard across robots and tasks, flexible for new problems and sensors not yet imagined, with SDKs - note mainstream software industry entering

    Power supplies better power/weight/volume for energy density is for longer autonomy, critical for wider use of mobile robots

    Interfacing with sophisticated sensors in standard ways connecting up a vision system is not straightforward today - lack of international open standards

    Industry standards for the more sophisticated sensors and process tools will evolve over the next decade, needed to accelerate systems integration and reduce the cost as special adaptors in software and hardware may be avoided, making the integration task easier and cheaper, and so open up the whole robotics field.

    Cognitive processing for safety (eg Asimovs three laws enacted) and far more capability needs more intelligent capacity + cognitive processing eg for job learning by demo, human interfacing, scene recognition, etc.

    Education in robotics if the EU is to compete globally it needs better degree and vocational level education in systems integration in robotics, as much as the robots themselves. Current initiatives are national, eg in Italy - EU level also needed.

  • Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 5

    Likely timescale for innovation for certain advances

    LaboratoryLaboratoryLaboratoryIroning robot combining unstructured shape recognition, textile understanding, sensitive tactile manipulation, precision

    Developed for limited production for service robots but high cost

    Pilot projects and some special market segments for limited roles

    Laboratory collision free movements

    Humanoids with full biomimetic functions & cognitive capability for useful interaction, domestic or industrial

    Complex teaching robots in full mass production

    Simple, limited education robots in limited production

    Toys and model kits in mass production, simple forms

    Expressive robotics teaching and entertainment Robots

    Pilot scale application in social situations

    Laboratory and pilotsLaboratory and pilotsHigher emotional intelligence for human interaction humanoids with empathy, facial expressions, etc

    Developed for limited production for service robots but high cost

    Limited use in pilot projects

    LaboratoryHuman interaction in adaptive manner, speech, gestures etc for collaboration and co-working

    Developed for production in high end machines

    Pilot scale projectsLaboratory, links to CYC and prior knowledge bases

    Higher cognitive ability common sense ie human real world logic, eg to understand and obey the 3 laws of robotics with respect to humans

    Reliable vocabulary for multiple familiar speakers with complex sentences using human style language learning for responses, in high noise environments lip reading

    Reliable 300 word vocab., for known speakers, simple sentences, semi-random response, some background noise

    Very simple phrases and 100 word vocab., known speakers, specific situations (strongly typed, low background noise)

    Natural language processing for human interaction - interface for instruction, replaces programming, with usefully low error rate (< 0.2%)

    20 years10 years5 yearsTime scale

    Innovation

  • Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 6

    How future robots will fit in : application scenarios and roles for robots vs sectors

    XXXXSpace

    XXXXSecurity

    XXXXDomestic service

    XXXXXXProfessional service

    XXXIndustrial

    Edutainment robots

    Robots for exploration & inspection

    Robots for surveillance & intervention

    Logistics robots

    Robotic co-workers

    Robotic workers

    Roles

    Sectors

    Food processingHazardous environments/spaceSecurity/defenceAgricultureMedical and care services for all agesProfessional service and edutainmentDomestic service ToysTransportFuture industrial manufacturing

    Future applications for robots will expand use and take-up

    Source : EUROP, Strategic Research Agenda, 2009

    Futuregrowthsectors

  • Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 7

    Estimated worldwide yearly shipments of industrial robots (000s)

    1991 2000 2008

    140

    100

    40

    0

    Source: World Robotics 2009

    State of the global robotics market (2005)

    The market for robotics

  • Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 8

    Industrial robots are used most by the auto industry with Asia as the largest market

    Units

    Estimated yearly supply of industrial robots by regions 2005 -2007

    Industrial robots by industry sector and application

    Source: IEEE Spectrum, 2009, http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/industrial-robots/the-rise-of-the-machines

    Source: World Robotics 2008

    Asia

    Europe

    Americas

    200720062005

    0 50,000 80,000

    AUTO

  • Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 9

    A realistic current market assessment:Slow growth overall in sales revenues is the most likely forecastThe number of industrial robots in the future depends on how the auto industry recovers and its future production might be less dependent on robots than in the pastSales of relatively low cost domestic and personal service robots (vacuum cleaners, mowers, toys, entertainment) likely to recover as recession ends - small market, overall Professional and service robots segment may be high potential as an undeveloped market. Currently dominated by military applications - may remain so. Despite lack of take-up last 5 years, opportunities in health/medical and field robots -perhaps strong chance for growth

    In summary: a dispassionate view of the industry today

    Source: IEEE Spectrum, http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/industrial-robots/the-rise-of-the-machines

    Top 10 countries by robot density, 2008

  • Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 10

    The robot is less than half the applications system cost in an industrial system application

    Source : Mauro Onori, KTH, Sweden , 2003, Automatic Assembly Systems/ B. Carlisle, Adept Technologies, USA, flexible assembly robotics example

    Robot

    Programming

    40% Cost

    30

    20

    10

    0

    Feeders Grippers&

    Tooling

  • Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 11

    R&D Manufacture Marketing AfterIPR sales

    Basic robot manufactureIntegration into target application environment

    After sales

    Testand

    correct

    Generic Robotics Value Chain

    For each extra system

    Control, communications and coordination systems including activity simulation systems

    Sensor systemsActuator system/ End effectors

    Tool systems

    Safety systems

    Auxiliary systems for systems integration

    Power/utility systems- electric, pneumatic, hydraulic, light, coolants

    SystemsIntegration

    Bought-in components manufacture

    Control, communications and coordination systems