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TerrorismSouth Asian Scenario
TerrorismSouth Asian Scenario
South Asia: An Introduction The region is located at the
strategically important area in world.
SA comprises of the sub-Himalayan countries and is surrounded (clockwise, from west to east) by Western Asia, Central Asia, Eastern Asia, and Southeastern Asia.
It is home to over 1.50 billion people .
It is the home of two new nuclear weapon states
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It has a history of protracted dispute, conflict and regional wars. It has close proximity to another nuclear power (China).
It has one of the fastest growing power and economy (India).
South Asia is one of the poorest and most misgoverned regions of the world after sub-Saharan Africa.
Enormous Diversity within South Asia .
1. Demography, Economy, Governance, Human Development,
2. Social Development and Poverty Incidence
Geostrategic Importance of South Asia
South Asia is a most complex, volatile and politically explosive region, the most enigmatic and baffling in the world
Lies between the sea routes of the Indian Ocean (Persian Gulf and the Asia-Pacific) and the land routes of Central Asia connecting Europe to the East
Large reservoir of natural and human resources
Prime destination for finance capital, a lucrative market for trade and a source of cheap raw material.
Sits at the confluence of the richest sources of oil, gas. The transit point for most of the resources and
manufactures that crisscross the world. Was the base for infamous “Great Game” in the 19th
century. United States Base at Diego Garcia, just south of
Maldives.
Geostrategic Importance of South Asia
Indo-US strategic partnership
Concept of “Chindia” Emergence of India as
Regional Power with global pretensions
Nuclearization of South Asia
Potentiality of Nuclear/Conventional Conflicts
South Asia in the frontline of the energy resource regions (Central Asia, Persian Gulf).
Demographic pattern-currently comprising one fourth of the world’s population.
Two Nuclear club members are in South Asia. Geographical contiguity with would be super
power, China “Indian Ocean Rim”
Terrorism and South Asia Global terrorism center of
gravity shifts to South Asia. South Asia now epicenter of
terrorism. “The arc of instability”. Islamist militancy in
Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh.
Maoist insurgency in India and Nepal.
The “Red Corridor”. FATA. Hindu radicalism. LTTE in Sri Lanka.
Mumbai attack November 2008
Common Factors Terrorism is caused by poverty and exploitation Terrorist enemies are at once civil and military, state
and non-state, territorial and non-territorial’ (Beck, The Cosmopolitan Vision (Polity) 2006: 152)
Regional tensions and non-resolution of core disputes Hegemonic policies Threatening sovereignty of smaller countries Growth of nuclear arsenal and induction of new
weapons.
Terrorists identified themselves with ‘the cellular world of global terror rather than the isolating world of national minorities’
Terrorists morphed ‘from one kind of minority – weak, disempowered, disenfranchised and angry – to another kind of minority – cellular, globalized, transnational, armed, and dangerous’ Appadurai, A (2006: 113) Fear of Small Numbers: An Essay on the Geography of Anger (Duke University Press)
Geography of Terror Incidents
Areas of Concern The Diaspora Connection Self-Radicalization Tactical Devolution Pakistan Afghanistan South Asia Emergingas the Global Epicenter of Terrorism
Female radicalization
Migrant worker connection
Confused/Dual identity
Trends in terrorism Terrorism and insurgency Internationalism Suicide terrorism Speed of learning Media developments Economic targeting Mass casualty attacks and
weapons of mass destruction
Strategic Trends Al – Qaeda in a strategic Cul de Sac yet posing a
credible threat to global security. An incomplete ideological battle compounding
the problem. Lack of effective trans-national cooperation
creating an advantageous situation for the terrorist organizations.
The deepening problem in the global south: need to address core issues.
Preferred asymmetric tool.
Changes in Tactics Bomb Blasts Increasingly
Being Replaced by Operations involving Small Arms e.g. Mumbai CST Attack 26/11/2009
New Innovations in Training and Organization
Rotating leadership Organizational identity
change
Terrorist Tactics, based on 25,303 Terrorist Tactics, based on 25,303 terrorist events, 1968-2004terrorist events, 1968-2004
% of all events % of all casualties
Bombs 53.4 70.1
Guns 19.9 23.0
Arson 9.8 2.7
Remote control bombs 1.9 4.7
Knives & other blades 1.3 2.1
Chemical 0.2 0.59
Biological 0.08 0.02
Other 13.3 8.1
Total 100.0 100.0
Source: Risks of Mortality and Morbidity from Worldwide Terrorism: 1968-2004. Risk Analysis Vol. 26, No.1, 2006.
Changes in Tactics Small groups and sleeper cells increasingly
gaining prominence. The lone wolf making a comeback? Decentralised organisational structure –
The case of JMB New innovations in training: The use of
Char areas for training An evolving crime – Terror nexus
The Emerging Threat Scenarios The looming threat to critical infrastructure:
Rawalpindi water supply The threat from internet radicalisation Fighting the flow of money: The challenge from
terrorist financing JMB financing – bona fide investments The question of nuclear security Terrorist or insurgent – where to draw the line?? Possibility of WMD terrorism
The Emerging Threat Scenarios
The deepening threat of radicalisation across societies.
The increasing threat from extremist groups in the context of South Asia e.g. Hizbut Tahrir.
The problem of integration in an increasingly globalising world.
The rise of the radical elements across different societies: The mainstream becoming smaller??
Who are the Terrorists?
Al-Qaeda
Militant, international Islamic organization focused on removing all western influence from Muslim countries and fighting a global “Jihad”
Who are the Terrorists?
Taliban Violent fundamentalist group from
Afghanistan; focused on implementing Sharia law in Afghanistan and Pakistan
Who are the Terrorists?
Separatist Movements
Punjab (Sikh), Kashmir, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland; all have tried to gain autonomy at one point.
Why does this matter to us? Terrorism threatens the stability of
the region; big consequences if these countries fall.
India and Pakistan are both nuclear nations; weapons could fall into terrorist hands.
Many of these organizations are international (e.g. Al-Qaeda)
Operation Enduring Freedom – US led military action in Afghanistan
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International Front for Jihad against the Jews and Crusaders
The ruling to kill the Americans and The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies civilians and military is an their allies civilians and military is an individual duty for every Muslim who individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it.possible to do it. ”” Fatwa issued by Osama bin Laden Fatwa issued by Osama bin Laden & Ayman al-Zawahiri & Ayman al-Zawahiri
• Mass communication and propaganda Western responses to radicalisation Governance in target countries Western dominance (both real and
perceived) State-to-state tensions
Global Futures Forum. Radical Worlds of 2020. Imagining the Futures of Radicalisation. The Hague, 12-14 December 2007
Key Drivers of Radicalisation, according to Key Drivers of Radicalisation, according to Global Futures ForumGlobal Futures Forum
Religion (and its relationship to politics) Government responsiveness (civil society) Immigration and demographics “Us- vs. -Them” identity politics New ideologies Resources (scarcities, conflicts over ~) Violence (associated with extremism)
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Radicalization: A strategic challenge
Terrorism is a tactic, it does not operate in a vacuum.
The continuum starts with radicalization Myriad reasons not one single factor A growing problem across the South Asian region. The Afghan jihad The role of the media in countering radicalization
The importance of the theologian. Fighting ideology with ideology. Countering the religious arguments. Understanding the importance and the
centrality of the religious debate. The incorporation of the religious clerics
into the sphere of counter terrorism in various countries.
Countering Radicalisation
The situation of Afghanistan ( Background) After the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, as a result of
military operations by the US-led multinational forces. Al Qaeda and leaders of Taliban fled to the border regions and into Pakistan.
In Afghanistan, security operations by ISAF established by a UN Security Council resolution have been successful to a certain extent and the international community has been supporting nation-building.
peace dividends have not reached every corner of the country and some people support the insurgents for economic and other causes.
With increased power of the Taliban forces, the security situation has deteriorated in recent years without considerable improvement of people’s living standards.
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Challenges in Afghanistan Crushing OBL and al-Qaeda, and hard-core
Taliban seems imperative for US security; stabilizing Afghanistan, growing its own security forces and building out its government capacity are critical to those goals.
Revised COIN strategy is good in theory, Piraeus is real leader, US combat forces are superb, but how much will it take, can Afghanistan unite, and will US public stay the course?
Pakistan’s commitment and capacity to rebuilding Afghanistan and defeating the Taliban are huge question marks, as are Iran’s in a lesser way
Afghanistan: anti-government forces: Taliban
Pakistan origin during anti-Soviet war US and Pakistani intelligence role in creation Pakistani military interest in maintaining Afghan unrest Ethnically- and class-inflected Sunni Islamism Pashtun ethnic dominance Regional variations Not a single united body, or equivalent to pre-invasion
government Mullah Omar, leader (at least in south) Overlaps with Taliban in Pakistan but not identical
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Afghanistan: anti-government forces: Militia leaders/“warlords”
Regional/clan/tribal-based patron-client relationships Fusion of “feudal”/pre-modern relations and “modern” social
and political relationships Haqqani Network
Jalauddin Haqqani Claimed responsibility for Kabul bombing this week
Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddun Gulbuddin Hekmatyar
Former PM Deeply opposed to foreign intervention
“Warlords” on both sides Shifting loyalties and finances central to current presidential elections
Afghanistan: anti-government forces: Al Qaeda Saudi- Egyptian-originated Sunni Salafi international
militia group November 2001 invasion immediately destroyed training
camps, displaced AQ activists to Pakistan, reduced AQ capacity, increased tensions with hosts
key leaders Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri still at large, presumably in Pakistan
Core AQ international combat reach doubtful; limited Afghanistan combat role
Effective “franchising” of AQ through loose international networks continues Differentiation and development of loosely related networks Mega-terrorism threat continues
Taliban distancing themselves
Terrorist Incidents in Afghanistan in 2005 and 2006 according to US National Counter Terrorism Centre
2005 2006
Incidents of terrorism in Afghanistan
491 749
Source: US National Counter Terrorism Centre as quoted in US Department of State. Country Reports on Terrorism and Patterns of Global Terrorism.
Current challenges
To reverse the momentum on the ground in Afghanistan.
The safe haven that the Taliban and al-Qaeda and other jihadists have built in Pakistan has to be closed down
Afghanistan: The new regional political play ground (e.g. entry of India)
Drug-terror nexus: drug trafficking source of terrorist funding(e.g. opium trafficking in Afghanistan)
Warlords Taliban by back Private militias
Pakistan- The Core Issue Pakistan is under
international pressure linked to the influx of Afghan refugee
Pakistan under complex challenge because of geographic location
FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Area)
Decentralization of Taliban Growing radicalization
Politics of terror Regional politics and Indo –Pak rivalry Foreign fighters and Taliban International linkages of terrorist groups Invisible foreign hands? Complex identity toned between Islamic and
ethnic identity Complex relationship with the US and the west
Ground Realities of Pakistan
Renewed strategic partnership with US and frontline role in the global war against terrorism elevate dangers to sensitive materials
The geo-political environment and maintenance of strategic stability present other challenges
“No one else’s bomb is called Hindu, Jewish, Christian, capitalist, or communist, yet somehow our bomb becomes “Islamic”, as if that makes it illegitimate. The idea is illogical and essentially racist. This is an example of how Muslims continually feel unjustly singled out and alienated”
President Pervez Musharraf’’s Memoir, “In the Line of Fire”
Pakistan’s response A bold and courageous operation
in FATA by Pakistan Army. Close cooperation with ISAF
(International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan)
A stated policy of Counter terrorism
CBM efforts with India specially after Mumbai incident.
Fighting the Afghan local refugee extremists
Terrorism and Pakistan
Islamabad Marriott Bombing: September 20, 2008
Marriott Hotel Bombing
PERPETRATORS: No group claimed of
responsibility for the attack, although most link the attack to al-Qaeda or Pakistani Taliban.
Pakistani Taliban denied involvement in the bombing.
No indication that Marriott received any warning of attack.
In addition, senior al-Qaeda leader Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, who claimed the June Danish Embassy bombing in Islamabad, threatened additional attacks against western interests in Pakistan in a video timed to the recent anniversary of the September 11 attacks.
Lahore Incident
Apprehension about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear assets and threat of terrorism
Terrorists’ acquisition of nuclear weapons or sabotage thereof, dirty bombs, RDDs, and radiation hazards caused by sabotage/attack on a nuclear facility or a transport vehicle.
Strategy needed in Pakistan
Revitalizing existing multilateral mechanism, regimes and treaties for their contribution to prevent terrorist activities.
The Afghanistan-Pakistan complex
Now a two-country war: Afghanistan, spilling over into Pakistan
The principal source of the global crisis of Terrorism. 2009 was a year of escalating violence and widening
disorder across the Af-Pak region. The ‘surge’ of US troops in Afghanistan in 2010 and
the uncertain tactical gains in Marjah notwithstanding, there is little reason to believe that the troubling fundamentals of the region are going to experience any significant change.
Afghanistan and Pakistan both ethnically mixed Structure/border legacies of colonial formation as nation-states key Pashtun ethnic group cross-border relations: hence
“Pashtunistan” Largest single group in Afghanistan; southern and eastern
concentrations Dominant in western border provinces of Pakistan
Emerging US perception of a cross-border war against Pashtunistan: hence “Af-Pak War”
What next in the post withdrawal period of US forces. Resurgent Taliban. It’s the time in Taliban framework.
Overview: Terrorism in India Nation building process marked by
religious fundamentalism, ethnic tensions and economic disparities.
Continuing militancy /insurgency in Kashmir and North –Eastern States.
Rising Maoist/ Naxal influence across central India and linkages with Nepal.
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Trends in terrorism in India
Homegrown terrorists
mixed with foreign connections Lots of the groups rally around
Kashmir issue The looming threat from Maoist
terrorism The rise of Hindu
fundamentalism. The regional nexus of terrorism
Major conflicts and terrorist groups operating in India State: Jammu & Kashmir
Lashkar-e-Taiba (Army of the Pure)Jaish-e-Mohammed (Army of the Prophet)Hizb-ul-Mujahiddeen (Party of Holy Warriors)Harkat-ul-Mujahiddeen (Movement of Holy Warriors)Al Badr (The Full Moon)Harkat-ul-Jehad Islami (Movement of the Islamic Jehad)
North East India State: Assam ULFA: United Liberation Front of Asam
NDFB: National Democratic Front of BorolandUPDF: United Peoples Democratic FrontBLT: Bodo Liberation Tigers
State: Nagaland NSCN-IM: National Socialist Council of Nagalim- Isak-
MuivahNSCM-K: National Socialist Council of Nagalim- Khaplang
State: Manipur UNLF: United National Liberation Front PLA: People’s Liberation Army PREPAK: People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak
NSCN-IM: National Socialist Council of Nagalim- Isak- Muivah
State: Tripura NLFT: National Liberation Front of
ATTF: All Tripura Tiger Force State: Meghalaya HNLC: Hynniewtrep National liberation
Council ANVC: Achik National Volunteer Council
Left Wing Extremism State: Bihar People’s War Group [Communist Party of India, Marxist-
Lennist (People’s War)] Maoist Communist CentreRanvir Sena (Anti-Left Wing caste army of landlords)
State: Jharkhand People’s War Group [Communist Party of India, Marxist-
Lennist (People’s War)]Maoist Communist Centre
State: Orissa People’s War Group [Communist Party of India, Marxist-
Lennist (People’s War)] State: Chattisgarh People’s War Group [Communist Party of India, Marxist-
Lennist (People’s War)]Maoist Communist Centre
Andhra Pradesh People’s War Group (PWG)
Communist Party of India – Marxist Lennist (Janasakhti) [Janasakhti: People’s Power]
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States Civilian SF Naxal Total
Andhra Pradesh 6 0 7 13
Bihar 30 6 7 43
Chhattisgarh 58 135 69 262
Jharkhand 41 12 20 73
Karnataka 0 0 1 1
Maharashtra 6 2 2 10
Orissa 29 18 13 60
Uttar Pradesh 0 0 0 0
West Bengal 243 33 40 316
Total* 413 206 159 778
Fatalities in Left-wing Extremism - 2010
Statewise Fatalities 2010
Current situation Naxalites do not belong to any religion or community. They
are mainly Dalits, Adivasis or other marginalized sections of society totally indoctrinated by the teachings of Mao and Marx.
Links with Nepalese Maoists, ULFA, and LTTE for training and modern weapons.
Maoist incidents account for over 60% of the violence: killings, kidnappings, extortion, abduction, IED blasts and destruction of property.
Growth of Naxalite movement due the exploitation and oppression of Dalits, Adivasis and other landless people by feudal agrarian system with strong interface of caste and class.
New forms of Terrorism in India Cyber-terrorism.
RDDs (Radiological dispersal devices).
Threats to India’s nuclear installations.
Threats to India’s maritime assets (offshore oil platforms, attractive commercial targets).
Bio-terrorism.
Nuclear terrorism??
Source: South Asian Terrorism Portal
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The Mumbai AttackThe Mumbai Attack On November 26th-29th On November 26th-29th
2008, Mumbai, India’s 2008, Mumbai, India’s greatest commercial capital, greatest commercial capital, came under siege by ten came under siege by ten terrorists.terrorists.
Ten coordinated attacks, Ten coordinated attacks, each conducted in populous each conducted in populous areas of Mumbai, killed at areas of Mumbai, killed at least 173 people and left least 173 people and left 308 injured. 308 injured.
The symbol of Lashkar-e-Taiba
Presently, the terrorists are suspected to have Presently, the terrorists are suspected to have originated from Pakistanoriginated from Pakistan Terrorist organization: Lashkar-e-TaibaTerrorist organization: Lashkar-e-Taiba Currently being denied by Pakistani officialsCurrently being denied by Pakistani officials
Terrorists’ motives seem to be partly related to Terrorists’ motives seem to be partly related to KashmirKashmir Lashkar-e-Taiba operates several training Lashkar-e-Taiba operates several training
camps in Kashmir, and regularly carries out camps in Kashmir, and regularly carries out offensives against Indian forces in Jammu offensives against Indian forces in Jammu and Kashmir.and Kashmir.
Possible Future Scenarios Maoist will expand Possibility of Maoist
groups to link up with the other terrorist groups
The unrest of Kashmir might aggregate
The homegrown terrorism will expand (e.g. Deccan Mujahideen)
The possibilities are that the Situation would be roughly the same as today.
Maoist threat may assume gigantic proportions and pose a grave threat to the security of Indian Union.
Maoists might be marginalized and discredited.
Steps required for India Strengthening of intelligence machinery at the Centre
and in States
Need for greater focus on activities of terrorist outfits, naxals, criminal & communal elements
Enhanced physical security and better access control systems through latest technology at vital installations, and public places such as airports, trains, railway stations, crowded markets and important religious places.
Sri Lanka after the Liberation Tigers of Tamil (LTTE)
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), has been comprehensively defeated.
An end of a relentless 33-year long conflict, and 26 years of full scale civil war.
On May 20, 2009, the Sri Lanka Army officially declared the end of Eelam War .
The top leadership of the LTTE, including its chief Vellupillai Prabhakaran, intelligence chief Pottu Amman and Sea Tigers chief, Soosai, were dead
Defeated remnants of the armed cadres surrendered or sought obscurity among the thousands of the Tamil displaced in refugee camps
The Diaspora leadership squabbled over succession, eventually to publicly renounce the option of violence
Significant focus of LTTE
LTTE had biggest money machineControlled a territory which became
a state within a stateLTTE taught suicidal bombingHad three dimensional capacityLTTE and WMD?
Gender dimension of
terrorism Child soldier in terrorism Media and terrorism
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Post war challenges
Economic destruction which is to be reconstructed
Emotional trauma Ruined hopes and shattered dreams. Rehabilitate the Tamils. More than 2,50,000 internally displace
persons, who are to be fed and attended to
Apprehension about future Little possibility of a immediate resurgence of
terrorist violence in the foreseeable future but beyond short term cannot be ruled out.
The enduring tragedy of Sri Lanka is that the opportunities of a hard won peace are quickly being frittered away in a blind, polarizing and fractious politics.
They won the war but missing the peace Solution has to be political not military.
LTTE’s financial empire exists which have not been dismantled
Tamil Diaspora Incomplete political reconciliation Issues of human rights violation
Glimpses of Bangladesh
Muslim Majority South
Asian State
Originally People with Moderate Mindset & Homogenous Population
Nature of Terrorist threats in Bangladesh
Religious militancy (Islamic extremism).
Violent radicalization Leftist movement. Terrorism in the form of
political violence. Ethnic insurgency (in the
CHT). Maoist threats.
Existing militant/ terrorist groups in Bangladesh 29 listed Islamic organizations for
suspected involvement in militancy. Government so far banned four
militant organizations: JMB, Huji-B, Jagrata Muslim Janata
Bangladesh (JMJB) Shahadat-e al Hikma.
Focus only on outlawed JMB and Huji-B.
List includes Bangladesh chapter of international organization Hizbut-Tahrir Bangladesh.
The other listed militant/terrorist outfits are
Hizb-ut Towhid Biswa Islami Front
Allahr Dal, Islami Samaj Juma'atul al Sadat
Al Harat al Islamia Shahadat-e-Nobuat
Jama'atul Faliya Jama'at-e Yahia al Turat
Towhidi Janata Joyshe Mostafa Bangladesh
Al Jihad Bangladesh Woarat Islamic Front
Dawat-e Islam Tanjim
The other listed militant/ terrorist outfits are
Jamaat-as-Sadat Joysh-e Mohammad
al Khidmat Hijbul Mahadi
Harkat-e-Islam al Jihad
Kalemar Dawat
Hijbullah Islami Samaj
Islami Dawati Kafela
Muslim Millat Shahria Council
World Islamic Front for Jihad
al Islam Martyrs Brigade
Hizb e Abu Omar Jadid al-Qaeda Bangladesh
Transnational LinkagesTransnational Linkages
HUJI’s suspected international connections.
Case of Fazlur Rahman. Hizbut Tahrir. Revival of JMB International Terrorists
search for a sanctuary.
The Growing International Linkages
The Nexus between Terrorism and Transnational Crime Terrorists engage in organized crime activity to
support themselves financially Organized crime groups and terrorists often operate on
network structures and these structures sometimes intersect, terrorists can hide themselves among transnational criminal organizations
Both organized crime group and terrorists operate in areas with little governmental controls, weak enforcement of laws and open borders
Both organized criminals and terrorists corrupt local officials to achieve their objectives
Organized crime groups and terrorists often use similar means to communicate–exploiting modern technology
Organized crime and terrorists launder their money, often using the same methods and often the same operators to move their funds
Terrorist group (al-Qaeda )to Reconfigure ItselfLate-1990s:
Monolithic StructureNow:
“Movement of Movements”
• Centrally controlled organization
• Strategic assaults executed by inner core of jihadist activists
• Nebulous, segmented, and polycentric organization
• Tactically oriented strikes done by affiliated cells (individuals) and when opportunity arises
Based on Changes, We Postulate Foural-Qaeda Trends for the Future
Now: “Movement of Movements”
• Nebulous, segmented, and polycentric organization
• Tactically oriented strikes done by affiliated cells (individuals) and when opportunity arises
1. Continuing interest in hard targets but increased focus on soft, civilian-centric venues
2. Ongoing emphasis on economic attacks
3. Continued reliance on suicide strikes
4. Desire to use CBRN weapons but little abilityto execute large-scale conventional attacks
Future Trends
Timeline of Post 9/11 Major Attacks
Oct 2001: Kashmir, India assembly attacked by militants. Dec 2001: militants attacked Indian Parliament in New Delhi May 2002 – Karachi, Pakistan; 14 dead, 20+ injured Jun 2002: attack against the US Consulate in Karachi, Pakistan. Aug 2003: simultaneous bomb blasts in Mumbai, India. Dec 2003: two assassination attempts on President Musharraf in
Pakistan Aug. 2005 – Bangladesh, 400 bombs in 30 min.; 2 dead, 138
injured.
Jul 2006 – Mumbai trains; 209 dead, 700+ injured
Feb. 2007 – Delhi Express; 68 dead, 50 injured Oct. 2007 – Karachi, Pakistan; 136 dead, 387
injured Dec. 2007 – Rawalpindi, Pakistan; 24 dead, 46
injured Sep. 2008 – Islamabad, Pakistan; 54 dead, 266
injured Dec. 2008 – Mumbai, India; 173 dead, 327
injured
Challenges in the next five years Decentralization of Threat New Threat Configuration Dominance of Al Qaeda Globalization of Threat Changing Profile Rise of Asian Terrorism
Rise of Homegrown TerrorismThreat MigrationThreat EscalationThreat Diversification
The geography and demography of terrorism will change. The Middle Eastern and Asian groups will dominate the international
landscape of terrorism. With the developments in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and
Indonesia, the specter of Asian terrorism will rise. Al Qaeda working together with TTP will provide training for both
Muslims and Muslim groups on the Afghan Pakistan border. Global Jihad groups will co-opt local and tribal groups creating safe
havens and sanctuaries from Tribal Pakistan. While Middle Eastern threat groups will continue to pose a threat, there
will be a comparable threat stemming from Asian groups. The area of FATA will be critically watched.
The Way Ahead
Need to address radicalization and extremism at a national and international level.
The need to fashion an adequate strategy to fight the ideological battle.
Understanding what makes a terrorist group tick – the importance of research.
Counter terrorism is not a the task of the governments alone.
Need to engage the youth. The role of the theologians. Media playing a more proactive role. Importance of building social resilience against
terrorism. A carefully calibrated multi pronged counter terrorism
strategy. High time for regional engagement.
Counter Terrorism in South Asia
SAARC has adopted several conventions. SAARC Regional Convention
on Suppression of Terrorism (signed by all member states and came into force in 1988)
Additional Protocol to the SAARC Regional Convention on Suppression of Terrorism(2002)
Bilateral CT agreements. National CT measures and
regulations.
What specific measures can SAARC take Sharing intelligence/
information Enact a consolidated strategy
to counter the financing of terrorism to ensure transparency in the transaction of money
Build an effective regional terrorism cell
Clear understanding of one country’s conflict situation and not to interfere in the conflict directly or indirectly.
What specific measures can SAARC take
Regional law enforcement coordination.
Regional capacity building training.
Political Climate. Counter new/ emerging
threats. Enact regional money
laundering act
What specific measures can South Asia take
Regional Counter Terrorism framework.
Coordination among regional law enforcement agencies.
Regional capacity building training.
Political Climate. Counter new/ emerging
threats. Enacting regional money
laundering act. National and regional Strategic
Communication Plan. Joint exercises.
Understanding and acknowledging the need and acuteness of the problem
Taking lessons from the various experiences. Studying the existing criminal rehab models and
adopting best practices. Understanding the terrorist motivations: what makes
a terrorist? Adoption of best practice models of rehab and
community engagement
Lessons for This Region
The Ideological Battle and the Centrality of the Religious Debate
Arresting a Terrorist is Only Half the Job, Reforming the Individual is the More Crucial One
No One Size Fits All Approach Operating within Resource Constraints The Importance of a Merger Between Law
Enforcement and the Community Countering Radicalisation – Looking at the Bigger
Picture
The religious clerics as an important component – The important role to be played by Islamic Foundation
Countering radicalisation needs to be a critical component of the National Counter Terrorism Strategy
Opportunity for cooperation among states in terms of Counter Radicalisation and terrorist rehabilitation
Addressing the root and not just the tactic Problem of terrorism often linked to
governance deficit Identity and integration will be significant Think globally act locally Primary response is political and primarily
non-kinetic
Law Enforcement Response & Policy
There are a number of ways a democracy can respond to terrorism, ranging from making concessions to military intervention.
Concessions are only likely when there is moral substance to the terrorist cause, or when such concessions are reasonable.
Military intervention may be used when the terrorist threat is too big for civilian authorities to handle.
The principle of international law obliges countries to either extradite terrorists to the country where their crimes were committed or to punish them themselves.
Resilience and longevity of the international jihadist networks Unipolar exclusionist and interventionist world order Weak transitional states Non-state actors in global politics Globalisation of organized crime Middle East oil dependence Migration and ethnic heterogenisation of Western societies Growing information interconnectedness Proliferation of deadly technologies Out-of-area spill-over from ongoing armed conflicts
Factors Facilitating Future Terrorism, Factors Facilitating Future Terrorism, according to Brynar Lia (2005)according to Brynar Lia (2005)
Future Trends and Contingencies
Interminable insurgency in Afghanistan and Pashtun tribal areas in Pakistan (quagmire?)
Nuclear terrorism threat – shouldn’t discount Engage local partners to limit Islamist radicals,
extremism and terrorism (AFPAK) Nuclear terrorism rising probability (contingency
plans)
Militant Islam continues to spread and gain power
Advanced communication technologies are changing the way terrorists work and live
What to do Strengthen institutional capacity for crisis
management and consequence management.
For regional stability India and Pakistan should evolve a strategic restraint regime covering both nuclear and conventional forces.
Question and Answer
Question and Answer
Thank YouThank You
