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Background Briefing:

Sabah: Sultan of Sulu StrikesClaim

Carlyle A. Thayer

March 5, 2013

[client name deleted]

1. The claim by the Sultan of Sulu to Sabah seems to be a historical one dating backsome 300 years. Why is the group interested in taking the land now? Are many of

the Sultans supporters political refugees from the Marcos period?

ANSWER: There are two possible explanations. The first relates to a decree made on

November 1, 2012 by the self-proclaimed Sultan of Sulu, Jamalul Kiram III,

mandating that his followers resettle in Sabah. This led to the landings on the east

coast of Sabah during the period 9th

-12th February and the occupation of Lahad Datu

village.

The second explanation, which is less likely because no mention has been made of it

by the Sultans supporters, is that the so-called Royal Army of Sulu was marking the

forty-fourth anniversary of the Jabidah massacre in March 1968. This massacre is

often cited as the spark for the Muslim rebellion against Marcos. This is also referred

to as the Corregidor Affair. The Marcos regime secretly began training Muslims to

invade Sabah to recover lost territory. When the Muslim recruits expressed

discontent at their conditions and lack of pay, they were executed and disposed of at

sea to prevent word of their existence from leaking to the press.

During the Marcos era several tens of thousands of Muslims fled to Sabah.

Subsequently Malaysia deported many back to the Philippines, especially after the

1997 Asian financial crisis. Malaysia government sources report that 446,000

Filipinos have been deported from Sabah since 1990.

Sources vary on the size of the Filipino community in Malaysia with estimates of up

to 570,000 including 447,000 undocumented workers without valid work permits or

residence cards.

It is too early to establish whether the members of the Royal Sulu Army who were

killed or who still remain in Sabah were former political refugees. Given the ages of

those reported killed it is more likely they were from the Sultans clan and were

motivated by loyalty to him. It also appears that there are some hundreds of the

Sultans loyalists among the several hundred thousand Filipino living in Sabah

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2. Can these 'sultan descendants' be considered Islamist terrorists? Are they seeking

an Islamic way of life that has been denied them in the Philippines? Are they likely to

take over other parts of Malaysia?

ANSWER: No, the Sultans descendants are not Islamist terrorists. They are Muslims.

They seek the return of ancestral land. Initial Muslim opposition to the Marcosregime came under the umbrella of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF).

These were Muslim aristocrats who were quite willing to negotiate with the

Philippine government. It was their willingness to do so that caused more militants

to break away and from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Abu Sayaaf

Group. The Philippine government has never classified the MNLF as a terrorist group.

Malaysia gave MNLF supporters sanctuary and over time this group became

integrated into Sabah society.

The current supporters of the Sultan of Sulu who lodged themselves in Sabah in

February are mainly interested in having their ownership over Sabah confirmed.

They point to the payment of lease or compensation money by the Malaysiangovernment as proof that their ownership is recognised. They have no territorial

designs elsewhere in Malaysia. Their lifestyle reflects the courtly life of the Sulta ns

court and mainstream Islam.

3. Relations between Manila and Kuala Lumpur have been healthy to date -- with

Malaysia paving the way for peace between the Philippines and MILF last year. How

could this Sabah standoff derail that?

ANSWER: The killing of supporters of the Sultan by Malaysian security forces could

spark some elements of the MILF or other Islamist extremists to seek revenge. The

MILF, however, is unlikely to support such action especially as the Aquinogovernment has called for a peaceful settlement of the current situation. The MILF

represents a different socio-economic class than supporters of the Sultan and their

interests are overwhelmingly if not exclusively focused on gaining autonomy in the

southern Philippines.

4. Could this standoff affect Prime Minister Najib's re-electon this year, given that

Sabah has already been home to the citizenship-for-votes scandal? Does Anwar

Ibrahim, the leader of the opposition coalition, stand a chance of gaining votes if

Najib handles this situation badly?

ANSWER: The very large number of Filipinos 65,000 by one count - who have been

given Malaysian passports as political refugees are content with the status quo.

They are not a support base for the Sultan. As long as Malaysian security forces

exercise some discrimination between the various communities and maintain local

security Najib should not suffer any electoral backlash. Najib must show leadership

and firm resolve to protect Malaysian sovereignty to retain support on peninsula

Malaysia. He must be seen to punish those who killed Malaysian police.

Najib has come under attack by the Opposition for the heavy-handed approach

employed by the security forces.

Rumours that opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim is secretly cooperating with the

opposition in Sabah may cut in Najibs favour.

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5. With reports that Malaysia just bombed the Islamic hold-out in Sabah, how will

this impact on Malaysia-Philippines relations? Malaysia already closed their embassy

in Manila (albeit temporarily). This recent development cannot be good for the

bilateral relationship.

ANSWER: Malaysias escalation of violence against the Sultans supporters throughair strikes could spark anger against any collateral killing of innocent civilians. On

March 2, for example, after Malaysian security forces killed a local Muslim religious

leader and members of his family, enraged local Filipino Muslim residents overran

the local police station and took four hostages.

The Aquino government has made repeated representations to Malaysia to exercise

restraint. Aquino has spoken to Najib, Foreign Secretary Del Rosario flew to Kuala

Lumpur to meet with his counterpart Anifah Aman, and Filipino diplomats have been

sent to Sabah to provide consular and other assistance. Malaysias use of excessive

force will cause a strain in bilateral relations. President Aquino is under intense

domestic pressure to stand up for the interests of overseas Filipino workers and notto abandon the Philippines claim to Sabah. Aquino is more likely to give priority to

the former than the latter. President Aquino has dispatched the BRP Tagbanua to

provide medical support and to transport supporters of the Sultan back to the

Philippines. President Aquino has also called on the Sultans supporters to return

home and surrender unconditionally to authorities.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Sabah: Sultan of Sulu Strikes Claim, Thayer

Consultancy Background Brief, March 5, 2013.

Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs are archived at Scribd.com