The Agricultural Situation in 1932-33. by International Institute of AgricultureReview by: V. P. TimoshenkoJournal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 30, No. 191 (Sep., 1935), pp. 644-646Published by: American Statistical AssociationStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2278124 .

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644 AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION

itself in the continental literature by its clear elaboration of the probability basis of mathematical statistics. Considerable interest, therefore, is attached to his attempt to write a popular book on statistics and its applications, but his new publication does not live up to the promise of its predecessor.

In a volume addressed to the laymen, care should be taken not to use the theory of probability without sufficient explanation, and the emphasis should be on the logical side of statistical methods. Of course, this task is a very difficult one, but Tchuprow has shown how it can be done. Professor Dar- mois sometimes uses quite complicated formulae, without explaining their logical significance step by step. The analysis of many examples from different fields is very stimulating, but the unprepared reader will have to overcome some difficulties. The examples are from economics, biometry, psychology, physics, agriculture, and even astronomy. The statistician pr ob- ably will not find much that is new to him, except in occasional remarks like those in chapter X on R. A. Fisher's study of the correlation between rain- fall and the yield of wheat per acre. The economic questions discussed include population (chapter III), indices of business activity (chapter IV), and business forecasting (chapter XI). These parts are perhaps too frag- mentary. Particularly it is to be regretted that the author did not incorpo- rate the results of his remarkable paper on time series: "Analyse et com- paraison des series statistiques qui se developpent dans le temps," Metron, vol. VIII, 1929.

EUGEN ALTSCHUL

University of Minnesota

The Agricultural Situation in 1932-33, by International Institute of Agricul- ture. Economic Commentary on the International Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics for 1932-33. Rome. 1934. viii, 580 pp. 25 liras.

This is the fourth volume of the series of Economic Commentaries published by the International Institute of Agriculture. No essential modification has been made in the plan followed in the preceding volumes, but the introductory chapter of the present publication, in which is discussed tend- encies in world agriculture (written by Dr. G. Pavlovsky, under whose direc- tion the greater part of the book was prepared), is larger than usual and presents more general interests. In this chapter the author emphasizes the structural changes in the world's economic organization, particularly the rapid growth of the idea of planned economy in agriculture, which has to supersede to a certain degree the very essentials of competitive economy.

In connection with the growth of planned economy and the increased in- tervention of governments, the fourth chapter, giving information on gov- ernment measures of farm relief, also acquires greater importance in the volume. It occupies more than one-fourth of the whole and supplies valuable information on numerous measures taken during 1932-33 for the relief of agriculture by various governments throughout the world. Chapter V, dis-

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REVIEWS 645

cussing action taken by voluntary organizations in the interest of producers, is of lesser importance. The great increase of state inteivention in agricul- ture and of economic planning, in which the initiative is taken by govern- ment, doubtless has in some countries reduced the importance of the voluntary organizations of farmers. For instance, the promotion of marketing schemes unider the Agricultural MIarketing Acts of 1931 and 1933 in Great Britain had the effect of limiting the field of voluntary cooperation. The last chap- ter (VI), supplying information on economic conditions of agriculture in various countries, is useful for reference. It may be summarized by saying that in almost all countries agriculture continued to be in a state of depres- sion in 1932-33 but that there were signs of improvement, which was pro- duced by the intervention of governments rather than by way of natural recovery.

The growth of planned economy and inereased governmental interventions in agriculture occupy, in such a manner, a central position in the present volume. The author of the introductory chapter says that the world has turned to planning as a solution of its economic and social problems. But, at the same time, he emphasizes that the advent of planned economy tends to create problems and difficulties of its own and that transition from com- petitive to planned economy is not accomplished smoothly and painlessly. Furthermore, he says, "unless and until some of the problems created by the transition to planned economy find a satisfactory solution . . . the standards of life will generally be lowered as compared with those attained under the competitive system."

The author emphasizes the particularistic and nationalistic tendencies characteristic of planned economies and states that under a system of national planning, international economic relations are necessarily restricted, which will inevitably result in a general lowering of the standards of life. In his opinion "the consolidation of the new order will depend on its success in finding a solution to the problem of international economic cooperation." The future of planned economy, he believes, will depend on its capacity to devise and to put into effect a workable scheme of international economic cooperation between planned national economic units. The author thinks that modern commercial policy tends gradually to forge necessary new links between the now largely isolated national units by the development of con- tractual cooperation between countries economically complementary to each other. But will not such bilateral agreements between complementary coun- tries (those purely agricultural on one side and purely industrial on the other) hamper still more the trade between other, less one-sided, intermediate countries, particularly if the interpretation of the most-favored-nation prin- ciple becomes more and more restrictive? The difficulties that the United States experiences at the present time in the conclusion of bilateral trade agreements may illustrate the situation. Being neither purely agricultural nor purely industrial but agricultural-industrial at the same time, the United States has difficulty in finding complementary countries with which to con- clude the bilateral agreements.

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646 AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION

The detailed presentation of governmental measures on farm relief, and particularly the generalization and interpretation of these measures in the introductory chapter, is the most interesting part of the book and may be recommended to the attention of all who are interested in the present eco- nomic tendencies in world agriculture.

V. P. TIMOSHENKO U. S. Department of Agriculture

Security Speculation, Its Economic Effects, by John T. Filynn. New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company. 1934. 332 pp. $3.00.

In this volume, which appeared shortly after the passage of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the author attempts "to make at least a beginning in the business of scrutinizing the part played by speculation in our economic life." Actually his, attempt is not as pretentious as this statement would in- dicate, for Mr. Flynn restricts his efforts to an appraisal of speculation in securities, which he defines as "an operation in which one buys or sells securi- ties, with the design to make a profit out of the changes in the market price of such securities." That speculation, as the general function of risk assump- tion, is an inevitable and useful aspect of the development and operation of capitalistic enterprise, the author freely admits. But he makes a useful and needed distinction between the important, but secondary, part played by speculation in the development of new industries, such as the railroads and the automobile industry, and the kind of speculation involved in pure security trading on the organized stock exchanges.

The latter type of speculation he subjects to critical examination with the view of discovering and describing the mechanism and devices by which it is conducted, evaluating its effects upon the economic system in the light of the contentions of its proponents and demonstrating the type and extent of regulation needed to correct the evils which he believes to exist.

The stock exchanges, Mr. Flynn finds, are the means of permitting and fomenting an enormous volume of security speculation, which, though par- ticipated in by "three or four thousand insiders and some half a million outsiders," performs none of the useful functions usually ascribed to it and has widespread harmful repercussions throughout the entire economic system.

The orthodox contention that the organized security markets, by facilitating speculation, ,provide continuous prices and a ready market for securities, without which the flow of savings into investment would not take place and the financing of new enterprises would be impossible, Mr. Flynn regards with an agnostic eye. The capital for new enterprises and new industries such as steel, automobiles, and the railroads, he points out, was obtained in the first instance by the sale of bonds (in which the stock exchanges are a negligible factor) or by private financing without benefit of the stock market. Speculators in the organized security markets, he admits, do provide a continuous market for the existing stocks of established corporations. A

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