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THE BATTLEGROUND POLL A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters

THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

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Page 1: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

THE BATTLEGROUND POLL

A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters

Page 2: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you

feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

28%

21% 21%26% 26% 27%

30%27% 28%

34% 35%

8% 9% 11% 10% 8% 7% 6%

14%9% 7% 8%

64%70% 69%

65% 66% 66%63%

58%64%

59% 57%

3/20/2014 8/28/2014 12/11/2014 5/7/2015 4/20/2016 9/1/2016 10/13/2016 12/1/2016 8/17/2017 3/8/2018 4/4/2019

Right direction Unsure Wrong track

Q1

Q1

Page 3: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N=1,000 Registered “likely“ voters/ ±3.1% M.O.E.

32%31% 31%

29%

32%

39%

34%

24%26%

27%

30%

27%28%

34%35%

67%69%

65%66%66%

63%

58%

64%

59%57%

26%

21%21%

28%37%37%

28%

38%

32%33%

28%

38%

36%

34%40% 41%40% 39%

70%

64%

73%

59%

54%

59%

64%63%62%

72% 75%

59%

59%

61%

57%56%

57%55%

52%54%55%

56%

51%

62%

54%

67%

60%

6/1/04

8/1/04

10/1/04

3/1/05

10/1/05

2/1/06

9/1/06

7/1/09

12/1/09

4/8/10

8/1/10

9/21/10

10/21/10

5/12/11

9/1/11

11/11/11

2/12/12

5/1/12

8/12/12

9/20/12

9/27/12

10/18/12

11/5/12

12/6/12

10/31/13

1/16/14

3/14/14

8/28/14

12/11/14

5/7/15

4/20/16

9/1/16

10/13/16

12/1/16

8/17/17

3/8/18

4/4/19

Right Direction Wrong Track Unsure

Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction, or do

you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

Q1

Q1

Page 4: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Thinking now about the elections for Congress that will be held in November 2020…

If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be

voting for…the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate, in your district?

Republican

37%

Undecided

21%

Democrat

42%

Q2

Page 5: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Now I would like to read you the names of several individuals who have been mentioned in the news

recently. For each one, please tell me whether you have heard of that person and if so, whether you have a

favorable or an unfavorable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just say so.

41%

37%

23%

42%

43%

55%

53%

46%

48%

46%

4%

7%

17%

10%

11%

3%

14%

Donald Trump

Nancy Pelosi

Mitch McConnell

The Republican Party

The Democratic Party

Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Never heard of

Q3-7

Page 6: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

How would you rate the job Donald Trump has been doing as President?

Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?

43%

4%

54%

42%

4%

55%

43%

5%

52%

Approve Unsure Disapprove

8/17/2017 3/8/2018 4/4/2019

Q3

Q8

31%

strongly

44%

strongly

Page 7: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

I am going to read you a list of issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or

disapprove of the job that Donald Trump has been doing on this issue.

The economy

50%

51%

58%

6%

4%

5%

44%

45%

38%

8/17/2017

3/8/2018

4/4/2019

Approve Unsure Disapprove

Q4

Q9

Page 8: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

I am going to read you a list of issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or

disapprove of the job that Donald Trump has been doing on this issue.

Foreign affairs

41%

38%

41%

6%

5%

5%

53%

56%

54%

8/17/2017

3/8/2018

4/4/2019

Approve Unsure Disapprove

Q5

Q10

Page 9: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

I am going to read you a list of issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or

disapprove of the job that Donald Trump has been doing on this issue.

Taxes

47%

45%

5%

7%

48%

48%

3/8/2018

4/4/2019

Approve Unsure Disapprove

Q7-9

Q11

Page 10: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

I am going to read you a list of issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or

disapprove of the job that Donald Trump has been doing on this issue.

Jobs

52%

57%

7%

9%

41%

34%

3/8/2018

4/4/2019

Approve Unsure Disapprove

Q7-9

Q12

Page 11: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

I am going to read you a list of issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or

disapprove of the job that Donald Trump has been doing on this issue.

Immigration

42%

41%

2%

3%

56%

56%

3/8/2018

4/4/2019

Approve Unsure Disapprove

Q10-13

Q14

Page 12: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

I am going to read you a list of issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or

disapprove of the job that Donald Trump has been doing on this issue.

Health care

38%

34%

6%

9%

56%

58%

3/8/2018

4/4/2019

Approve Unsure Disapprove

Q10-13

Q15

Page 13: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Which of the following views about Donald Trump comes closest to your own?

49%

20%

27%

Donald Trump’s style and comments are

frequently insulting, and he has the wrong

approach on many issues

Donald Trump’s style and language bother me,

but he is raising important issues

Donald Trump tells it like it is and he has the

right approach on the issues I care most about

Q1

Q16

Page 14: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Would you say that you have a favorable or unfavorable impression about

Congress as a whole?

17%

5%

78%

25%

9%

67%

Favorable Unsure Unfavorable

3/8/2018 4/4/2019

Q14

Q17

Page 15: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job that your Member of Congress is doing?

42%

13%

46%50%

13%

37%

54%

15%

31%

Approve Unsure Disapprove

8/17/2017 3/8/2018 4/4/2019

Q15

Q18

Page 16: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Do you think your Member of Congress has been too supportive of President Donald Trump

or not supportive enough of President Trump, or just about right?

20%

33%31%

16%

20%

26%

41%

14%

18%

24%

42%

16%

Too supportive Not supportive enough Just about right Unsure

8/17/2017 3/8/2018 4/4/2019

Q16

Q19

Page 17: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Do you think Donald Trump has performed his job as President well enough to deserve re-

election, or do you think it's time to give a new person a chance?

38%

5%

57%

Deserves re-election Unsure/depends on opponent New person a chance

Q20

Page 18: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Now, I would like to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, who you

think would do a better job of handling this issue -- President Donald Trump or the Democrats in Congress. Split Sample Version A

50%

52%

47%

32%

40%

40%

44%

59%

5%

3%

5%

4%

6%

5%

3%

5%

Jobs

The economy

Taxes

Education

Donald Trump Dems in Congress None Unsure

Q21A-24A

Page 19: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Now, I would like to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, who you

think would do a better job of handling this issue -- President Donald Trump or the Democrats in Congress. Split Sample Version A

35%

42%

48%

37%

55%

51%

43%

43%

4%

4%

6%

8%

6%

4%

3%

12%

Health care

Immigration

National security

Dealing with special

interests

Donald Trump Dems in Congress None Unsure

Q25A-28A

Page 20: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Now, I would like to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, who you

think would do a better job of handling this issue -- the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress. Split Sample Version B

46%

49%

41%

30%

38%

37%

43%

54%

8%

8%

8%

9%

8%

6%

8%

7%

Jobs

The economy

Taxes

Education

GOP in Congress Dems in Congress None Unsure

Q21B-24B

Page 21: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Now, I would like to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, who you

think would do a better job of handling this issue -- the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress. Split Sample Version B

30%

40%

48%

28%

54%

48%

38%

42%

10%

7%

5%

16%

7%

6%

9%

14%

Health care

Immigration

National security

Dealing with special

interests

GOP in Congress Dems in Congress None Unsure

Q25B-28B

Page 22: THE BATTLEGROUND POLLpolitics.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-slides.pdf · the battleground poll A national survey of 1,000 Registered “likely” Voters March 31-April

March 31-April 4, 2019 / N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

How worried are you that the United States will suffer another economic downturn which will

negatively affect your family?

24%

35%

25%

15%

Very worried

Somewhat worried

Not too worried

Not at all worried

Q1

Q29