DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN LANCASTER COUNTY, NEBRASKA 1970-2010

The Changing Face of Lincoln

Jon Swanson | GIST 1140 | September 22, 2015

Image Courtesy of Lincoln Journal-Star

Table of Contents• Introduction• Purpose and Desired End• Sources of Data• Difficulties of Research • Methods• Analysis• 1970• 1980• 1990• 2000• 2010

• Conclusion

Introduction• The City of Lincoln is the Seat of Lancaster County and

the Capitol of the State of Nebraska. Over the last forty-five years it has undergone a process that has transformed it from a largely homogenous city to one that is home to people of many races, backgrounds and homelands. This presentation will map these changes from 1970 through 2010 by using Tract level data from those decennial Censuses to calculate Diversity Indexes for Lancaster County. Particular attention will be given to Census Tract 9, in north-central Lincoln. The purpose of this study is to document the process of change and to locate it spatially.

Purpose for Project and Desired Ends

• The purpose of this study is to document the process of change and to locate it spatially. It is also to measure the rate of change. In short, it is to provide a baseline of data that can be used for further studies.• Information desired is the compositions and percentages of populations in each Tract and the Diversity Index (DI) for each. The percentage of change in the DI is also wanted. Spatially, the location and distribution of Low to High diversity Tracts is also helpful in future analysis.

Data Sources

• The data for this presentation was obtained from the Census Bureau, the National Historical Geographic System of the Minnesota Population Center, the MapUSA project of Brown University and ESRI Online.

Difficulties• The difficulties in a study of this sort revolve around the changing

methods of the Census Bureau in its enumeration and shifting Tract boundaries. For example, Track 36.01, which corresponds to the Nebraska State Penitentiary, shows zero population in 1980 although it is populated and among the most diverse in the other four Censuses. Despite extensive research, the author was unable to determine the reason for this. Another obstacle is the changing way the Census counts population. In 1970 the Census had three racial categories: White, “Negro” and Other. In 1980 they added the categories, Other-“Spanish” and Other-“Non-Spanish”. Later Censuses have other changes and it is something that the reader should keep in mind while studying the data. Tract boundaries change over time, as well, because as population increases and shifts, the need to have relatively balanced Tracts forces changes and increases the challenge of analysis.

Methods• The method of analysis chosen was to calculate each

group’s percentage of total population in each Tract. From that data, the DI was calculated for each Tract and Normalized by percentage of total population. In general, that analysis shows less diversity in the rural areas of Lancaster County and increasing diversity as one moves towards the city center. While all of the County becomes more divers over time, the pattern holds, with the Tracts in the center being the most diverse. In addition, nearly all Tracts show a decline in the percentage of White population.

Analysis• While several Tracts showed interesting results, in

analyzing these changes over time it is helpful to focus on one that is representative of broader trends. The chosen area is Tract 9. It is located in north central Lincoln, roughly bordered on the south by O Street, on the east by N. 48th Street, in the north by Huntington Street and on the west by N. 33rd Street. It was chosen because its total population has remained fairly stable while changing more demographically and little spatially from 1970 to 2010.

Lancaster County, 1970

In 1970, Lancaster County showed most Census Tracts to have low diversity. The exception being the city center, Tract 7.

Tract 9 1970

In 1970, Tract 9 had a population of 3,505, of whom 98.9% were White, 0.54% were Black and 0.51% were Other. Its DI was 0.020945, or Medium Low by classification.

Lancaster County, 1980

In 1980, we see growing diversity, especially in the northwest ern sector of Lincoln.

Tract 9,1980In 1980, its population was 3,334 with 94.7% White, 1.58% Black, 0.2% Native American, 2.5% Asian, 0% Hispanic and 0.89% Other. The DI was 0.100683, an increase of 380.7%, bringing it into the Medium class. While the percentage of Black population tripled, the major change here seems to be the increase in residents of Asian ancestry, although it is impossible to say because they were not counted separately in 1970.

Lancaster County, 1990

By 1990, diversity in Lincoln had spread to much of the northern and western parts of the city as well as the center. The rural outer parts of the county remained less diverse.

Tract 9, 1990In 1990, the trend continued. The Tract had a population of 3,264 with 91.3% being White, 2.75% Black, 0.42% Native American, 4.19% Asian and Pacific Islander, 1.25% Other and 2.75% Hispanic. The Tract became classified as Medium High with a Diversity Index of 0.280609, increasing by 178.71%. The largest change here is the dramatic increase in the Hispanic population of the Tract, although the increase in the percentage of Asian residents continued.

Lancaster County, 2000

By the year 2000 the demographic pattern of the county seemed set. Growing diversity in the central, and north-western Tracts of Lincoln with low diversity in the outer county and the south-eastern Tracts of the city.

Tract 9, 2000In the 2000 Census, Tract 9 had a population of 3,946. 84.3% of the population was White, Blacks constituted 3.8% of residents, Native Americans 0.06%, Asians and Pacific Islanders were 5.5%, 5.2% claimed Hispanic heritage, 2.7% were Other and in a new category established by the Census, 3% said they were Multi-Racial. The DI for 2000 had a Medium High classification of 0.354322, an increase of 26.27%. During this decade, the proportion of Hispanic residents continued to climb, along with the number of Black inhabitants while Asian representation leveled off. The increase in the DI was less dramatic, probably because having started out so low, changes in population affected it less.

Lancaster County, 2010

In 2010 the pattern established over the past forty years continued for the most part. However, growth in diversity was beginning to be seen in southern Lincoln.

Tract 9, 2010Finally, in 2010 this area of north-central Lincoln had a population of 3,749 with 78.7% of them being White, 3.46% Black, 0.64% Native American, 7.68% Asian, 6.93% Hispanic, 0.21% Other, 2.34% Multi-Racial, and 0% for the newly established category of Pacific Islander. It stayed in the Medium High class with a DI of 0.454159, which was a 28.18% increase since 2000. The trend of Asian and Hispanic growth continued. Overall, from 1970 to 2010, the Diversity Index rose by 2,064.54% and the percentage of the White population dropped by 20.45% in Census Tract 9.

Conclusion•This area of Lincoln may have shown more dramatic change than other parts of the city, but it is indicative of a trend. Lancaster County is becoming more diverse and less segregated. The reasons for this are beyond the scope of this paper, but it is clear that this process will continue and require citizens, neighbors and decision makers to accept, if not embrace it.

Sources• ArcGIS Online. Map Service. City_Limits. Kurt_Elder. (2015, September 12). Retrieved September 12, 2015, from

https://www.arcgis.com/home/• Geography and Data. (2015, September 5).United States Census Bureau. Retrieved September 5, 2015, from

http://www.census.gov/geo/maps-data/index.html• MapUSA: Data Download. Brown University. (2015, September 7). Retrieved September 7, 2015, from

http://www.s4.brown.edu/mapusa/Default.aspx• Minnesota Population Center. National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 2.0. Minneapolis, MN: University of

Minnesota 2011. Retrieved September 1, 2015, from http://www.nhgis.org• Title Slide Image URL• http://journalstar.com/news/local/city-of-lincoln-seal/image_6d2ba4cb-33b0-5714-ab3a-95ee7534e1a8.html• 1970 map photo URL• http://www.southerneddesk.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Segregation_Associated-Press.jpg• 1980 map photo URL• http://static01.nyt.com/images/2010/06/14/us/HALEY-2/HALEY-2-popup.jpg• 1990 map photo URL• http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2014/05/11/sunday-review/11KIRPsub1/11KIRPsub1-videoSixteenByNine600.jpg• 2000 map photo URL• http://archives.hud.gov/offices/cpd/communitydevelopment/cdbg30/wa/lakewood/line.jpg• 2010 map photo URL• http://theredwire.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/1school-700x561.jpg