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The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University of Technology

The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

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Page 1: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects

Soirée Technique, Dec 8th

Session 4: Renewable Energy SourcesPresented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University of Technology

Page 2: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

Prospects:

long term price stability

Perspectives: policy makers and lawyers

major component of energy security

.. they are different.

..they are many. investors

electricity grid and market operators

This talk is about:substantial helpfuleffect on climate

re-think way we run power system

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Page 3: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

substantial helpfuleffect on climate

European level:About 25-30% of efforts

Global: the “stabilization triangle”

Image credit: cmi.princeton.edu

200 Gt, in next 50 years:Each wedge: GT/year

Install 2TW of wind; provide about 5 PWh

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Page 4: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

We’re coupling our energy system to climate patterns, and to weather patterns.

Image credit: The Atmosphere, 8th edition, Lutgens and Tarbuck, 8th edition, 2001

Regional-but renewable

Variable,but predictable.

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Page 5: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

Will climate change affect wind power projects?

Michelangeli and Loukos, 2007

Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007

Rough reasoning anticipatesfuture reduction in yield…

..detailed models confirm.

Effect varies over globe; depends on local features; hard to predict.

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Page 6: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

Will wind power projects causeclimate changes?

wind energy conversionrequires momentum transfer.

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Page 7: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

Brand 2009

minimum safe distance (2-10% deficit): order of tens of kilometers

the recovery distance (1% Deficit): hundreds of kilometers.

Christiansen and Hasager 2005

Wake effect: becoming of legal interest

Will wind power projects causeclimate changes?

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Brand 2009

Page 8: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

Change global mean temperature?

Wind power affects crops, local weather?

Detectable but negligible compared toanthropogenic forcing.

Keith, 2004

First indication: helpful or neutral; but research just starting

Takel, 2011

Will wind power projects causeclimate changes?

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Page 9: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

Physical Potential

Is there even that much wind power?8

Hoogwijk 2004

Page 10: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

Technical: 96 PWh/year, Economic: 53 PWh/year at 0.13 €/kWh

21 PWhr/year at 0.052 €/kWh

versus 15 PWh/year global electricity consumptionof global electricity consumption

Is there even that much wind power?9

Hoogwijk 2004

Page 11: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

3 PWh/yearEuropean electricity consumption in 2008:

Is there even that much wind power?

Many regions have resource exceeding consumption, costs differ.

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Hoogwijk 2004

Page 12: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

As of 2004, about 0.05% of the economic potential was developedAs of 2010: perhaps 0.4%.

How much has been built?

Global: 0.5T USD a year to meet 450 PPM (vs bond market 90 T USD)Europe: to meet EU targets, 30-65 billion a year (vs bond market 23 T, GDP of Europe: 16T)

Trend in pension fund investment in infrastructure: estimated at 1 T a year

Is there enough money to build it all?

Growth rate of last 5 years: ~27% (doubles every ~3 years)

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Source: GWEC

Page 13: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

Addressing investment risk: significant deployment barrier

Sources of risk: resource uncertainty, inflation, construction delay

Mitigation instruments: wind derivatives, loan guarantees, construction insurance

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Samec 2011

Page 14: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

Generation mix: limits and changes in thinking

Storage or transmission needed to avoid curtailment

30% renewable energy scenario studied in North America: (image credits NREL)

nuclear

coal

wind

Total system load:

Inflexible generation can impose minimum generation limit:

“Cycling” of units uncomfortable;Need emerges for new types

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Page 15: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

Variability and Uncertainty

Wind power forecasts a common tool in control rooms.

Provision alwaysexisted for changes:both anticipatedand unexpected.

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Image credit:Makarov et al, PNNL-19189, 2010

Madsen and Pinson: imm.dtu.dk, 2009

Page 16: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

Farm-level control using

pitch

Wind speed(m/s)

Power production(MW)

0 minutes 2

“Soft Storm Transition” or

“Storm Control”:

Image credit: Gijs van Kuik, TU Delft, DUWIND

Image credit:

upwind.eu

Image credit:

upwind.eu

Example:Denmark

First to pioneercontrollable wind power, because forecasts notperfect.

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Page 17: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

Example:Denmark

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Image credit: Energinet

Page 18: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

Switched Power Electronics Interfaces

Synchronous Machine (traditional)

simple, fixed, strongPower Electronic Interface

Complex, flexible,relatively fragile

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Page 19: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

An island electric power system

Must be mostly self-sufficient, even for short periods

Hirvonen 2003

Example:Ireland

Contingency event:Loss of big generator,or introduction ofbig load

In first instances:Need to use energystored in system’srotating masses

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Page 20: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

2008/2009 range ofoperation

60-70%Systemsplits in half, collapses.

70-80%System collapsesimmediately

Wind turbinerotors notforced to besynchronous: -> several related problems

Example:Ireland

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Eirgrid, All-Island TSO Facilitation of Renewables Studies, Final Study Report

Page 21: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

Image credit: RED Eléctrica España

formerly allowed disconnect levelnew requirementtypical transient

Electricity grid behaviour during a fault (lightening, tree, etc)

generators can help by staying connected, in spite of voltage transient:

Example:Spain

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Bömer 2011

Page 22: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

Example:Spain Wind power production behaviour *before* “ride-

through” requirement: nuclear sized dips.

How are the worst situations avoided?

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Image credit: RED Eléctrica España

Page 23: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

!

Image credit: RED Eléctrica España

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Page 24: The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University

We’re coupling our energy systemto the climate in a new way.

Generation is always a mixture; wind power plants their own animal offering challenges but also benefits

Wrapping up:

Variability and uncertainty in our power system: not a new thing, but changes can be expected

From all these perspectives,which ideas to take home ?

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