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The Demand for Bachelor’s Degrees in Florida Jay Pfeiffer, Deputy Commissioner Accountability, Research and Measurement Florida Department of Education Presentation Made to The Florida College System Task Force On September 4, 2008

The Demand for Bachelor’s Degrees in Florida Jay Pfeiffer, Deputy Commissioner Accountability, Research and Measurement Florida Department of Education

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The Demand for Bachelor’s Degrees in Florida

The Demand for Bachelor’s Degrees in Florida

Jay Pfeiffer, Deputy Commissioner Accountability, Research and Measurement

Florida Department of Education

Jay Pfeiffer, Deputy Commissioner Accountability, Research and Measurement

Florida Department of Education

Presentation Made to

The Florida College System Task Force

On September 4, 2008

The Demand for Bachelor’s Degrees in Florida

The Demand for Bachelor’s Degrees in Florida

1. Bachelor’s degrees and Florida’s working population

2. Sources of Bachelor’s Degrees-

3. Elements of Demand

Florida’s labor market

Students in the pipeline

4. Conclusions

Jay Pfeiffer, Deputy Commissioner Accountability, Research and Measurement

Florida Department of Education

Jay Pfeiffer, Deputy Commissioner Accountability, Research and Measurement

Florida Department of Education

United States

13.0%

30.2%

30.1%

26.7

13.1%

29.5%

28.3%

29.2%

Florida

13.8%

25.6%

27.2%

33.4%

Ten Most Productive States

Educational Attainment of Selected Labor Force-Aged Populations (Ages 25-64)

Source: 2006 American Community Survey, U.S. Bureau of the Census

< High School

High School Graduate

Some College/Associate

Bachelors Degrees or more

Bachelor’s Degree Attainment and Gross Domestic Product

State GDP Per Capita Population 25-64 with Bachelors

degree or higher

United States $37,545 29.2%

Florida $33,718 26.7%

Delaware $59,288 29.1%

Connecticut $50,332 36.6%

Massachusetts $46,721 40.8%

New York $46,617 33.8%

New Jersey $44,885 36.8%

Alaska $43,748 27.5%

Colorado $41,798 35.9%

Virginia $41,702 35.1%

California $41,663 30.1%

Minnesota $41,295 33.2%

Sources: 2006 American Community Survey, U.S. Bureau of the Census; Bureau of Economic Analysis (2006 GDP by State)

Sources of Bachelor’s Degrees in Florida

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-070

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000SUS

ICUF

Private

CC

In-Migration based on 2006 only

Source: FETPIP, IPEDS, NCHEMS

National Data: Labor Force Information by Credential Earned

Unemployment Rate(Percent)

Median Earnings (Dollars)

Notes: Unemployment and earnings for workers 25 and older, by educational attainment; earnings for full-time wage and salary workers

Master’s degree

Bachelor’s degree

Associate degree

Some college, no degree

1.4

1.1

6.8

4.3

3.9

3.0

2.3

1.7

$76,648

$74,932

$21,788

$58,708

$35,048

$37,492

$30,940

$50,024

High-school, graduate

Some high-school, no diploma

Professional degree

Doctoral degree

Sources: Unemployment rate, 2006 annual average: Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2006 Weekly Median Earnings (multiplied by 52 weeks), Bureau of the Census.

Source: Agency for Workforce Innovation

Occupational Distribution sorted by Minimum Educational Requirements in 2016

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

High School or Less

Vocational Certificate

College Credit/Associates

Bachelors

Bachelors Plus

10,072,029 Jobs projected by 2016 in Florida

0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000

High School or Less

Vocational Certificate

College Credit/Associates

Bachelors

Bachelors Plus

Source: Agency for Workforce Innovation

Includes occupations with at least 4000 jobs in 2008; Occupations growing at 2% per year or greater.

100 Fastest Growing Occupations to 2016 by Minimum Educational Requirements

10

39

27

15

9

Occupational Title

Employment

OccupationalIncrease (2008-

2016)

Annual %

Change2008 Hourly

Average Wage 2008 2016

Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 13,989 17,747 3,758 3.36 40.24

Physician Assistants 4,468 5,687 1,219 3.41 40.53

Business Teachers, Postsecondary 3,953 4,915 962 3.04 48.26

Civil Engineers 15,326 18,767 3,441 2.81 37.91

Management Analysts 54,142 65,028 10,886 2.51 37.87

Physical Therapists 12,204 15,097 2,893 2.96 36.02

Environmental Engineers 2,862 3,648 786 3.43 37.09

Computer Science Teachers, Postsecondary 1,827 2,265 438 3.00 43.02

Agricultural Sciences Teachers, Postsecondary 855 1,081 226 3.30 51.03

Industrial Engineers 9,215 11,429 2,214 3.00 33.19

Special Education Teachers, Preschool - Elementary 10,946 13,448 2,502 2.86 32.72

Nursing Instructors and Teachers, Postsecondary 1,797 2,203 406 2.82 39.55

Occupational Therapists 5,360 6,485 1,125 2.62 34.73

Engineering Managers 4,642 5,357 715 1.93 54.98

Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary 6,866 7,789 923 1.68 51.74

Human Resources Managers, All Other 1,892 2,249 357 2.36 43.82

Hydrologists 614 811 197 4.01 36.32

Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 75,241 88,774 13,533 2.25 31.31

Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education 11,418 13,747 2,329 2.55 31.07

Education Administrators, Postsecondary 2,976 3,515 539 2.26 40.61

Forestry & Conservation Teachers, Postsecondary 94 120 26 3.46 48.58

Top Florida Occupations Requiring a Bachelor’s Degree in 2016 – Ranked by Several Factors

Source: Agency for Workforce Innovation - Data

High School Student Enrollment 1995 - 2005 by Race/ Enthnicity

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

BlackHispanicOtherALL MINORITYWhite

Higher Proportions of Minority Students are Moving up the Pipeline

Source: Florida Education Data Warehouse

First Time Enrollment in Community College: Percent by Race/Ethnicity

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Black

Hispanic

Other

ALL MINORITY

White

Public School Demographic Changes are Reflected in Community College First Time Enrollees…

First Time Enrollment in State University: Percent by Race/Ethnicity

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Black

Hispanic

Other

ALL MINORITY

White

Demographic Changes are Not as Reflected in State University First Time Enrollees…

Standard Diplomas

0

40000

80000

120000

160000

200000

83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16 19

Actual

Projected

Actual and Projected High School Graduates In Florida

1982-2020

Source: Florida Department of Education; Evaluation and Reporting

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-070

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Source: FETPIP

Continuing Education Immediately After High School Graduation 2002 -2007

Total Continuing Education

SUS

CC

Out-of-State

ICUF

In the year following graduation with a Standard high School Diploma

Source: Education Data Warehouse

Florida Postsecondary Enrollments After High School Graduation Delayed Starters 2002 -2007

Total Enrolled

SUS

CC

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-0790000

140000

190000

240000

290000

340000

390000

Students between 25 and 65 years of age.

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2006-070

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Florida Community College Associate of Arts Graduates Entry into the Upper Division in State Institutions*

Source: FETPIP

Total Graduates

Total Continuing to the Upper Division

SUS

ICUF

*During the year following graduation from a Florida Community College

Source: PK-20 Education Data Warehouse

132,814

6,546 9,6454,004

31,027

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Standard HighSchool

Diplomas

SpecialDiplomas

Certificate ofCompletion

GED Dropouts(Grades 9 - 12)

How do Florida Students Leave Public High Schools? 2006-07

132,814Diploma

Recipients

Independent Universities

PK-12 Adult Programs

Source: PK-20 Education Data Warehouse. Note: These data represent preliminary findings.

Community Colleges

State University System

2006-07 The 2007-08 Academic Year*

Outta State*92,970 Unduplicated Students in Postsecondary – 70%

13,982 (11%)

70,140 (53%)

29,554 (22%)

4,872 (4%)

6,641 (5%)

What Happens After They Graduated? - Standard Diplomas to

Postsecondary

Source: Florida Education and Training Placement Information Program

Florida 1995-96 High School Graduates

In-State Postsecondary Enrollments Through 2000

N = 89,461 Graduates In Cohort

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

45,618 initial postsecondary enrollments,

fall '9735,804

ContinueIn fall of

1998

6,586 new in '98

C

3,531 from '98

2,932 new '99

2,089 returning

2,537 from '981,627 from '99

1,235 '99

returnees

740 '98s who

left in '99

2,578 new in

2000

988

1730

797

4071170

1,682 new

in 2001

Th

ou

san

ds

of

Stu

de

nts

29,010Originals

Fall of1999

24,936Originals

fall of 2000

16,205 originals in fall of

2001

Source: K20 Education Data Warehouse

Florida Public High School Graduates, Class of 1996, Highest Education Credential Attainment as

of 2007

89,461 Standard Diplomas

(15,478 – 17% Never Enrolled in Florida – 6.48% out of State)

Standard Diploma66%

Post BA4%

Post BA4%

BA18%

AA8%

Col Credit Voc2%

Col Credit Voc2%

VOC2%

VOC2%

Standard Diploma66%

BA18%

AA8%

AVGDISCIPLINE Total N EMP % EMP EARNINGSEDUCATION 5135 4035 79% $8,661ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY 439 326 74% $12,944PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND SERVICE 996 718 72% $9,156BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT 15009 9703 65% $9,556COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES 1056 682 65% $11,105HEALTH PROFESSIONS & RELATED SCIENCE 5166 3330 64% $10,910LIBERAL/GENERAL STUDIES 1790 1106 62% $7,870PSYCHOLOGY 4256 2617 61% $6,108ENGLISH 2126 1300 61% $6,642MASS COMMUNICATION 3302 2018 61% $6,667PROTECTIVE SERVICES 2260 1356 60% $7,891

Placement Data for SUS Bachelor’s Degrees

Source: FETPIP

Florida has regularly collected employment placement data since the late 1980s. These data can be used to identify bachelor’s degree disciplines where a substantial number off graduates are placed in Florida jobs plus additional details such as quarterly earnings. In the example below, disciplines were sorted first by placement rate, then by earnings.

Note: These data are for 2006-07 graduates based on Florida employment in the late fall of 2007.

Placement Data for SUS Bachelor’s Degrees

Discipline Industry Grads Employed

2003Placement Earnings

2003 Industry Average

2003Difference

2007 Placement Average

2007 Industry Average

2007 Difference

Key Sources of Strategies and Direction

• Enterprise Florida, Inc.o Industry Sectorso Roadmap to Florida’s Future

• Council of 100, 2006 Report• Chamber of Commerce Cornerstone Report• Workforce Florida, Inc., Targeted Industries,

Statewide and Regional• Florida High-Tech Corridor • Agency for Workforce Innovation • Florida Hospital Association and Department of

Health• State Board of Education, Critical Teachers• Florida Board of Governors

General Areas of Emphasis

• Sustainable Developmento Energyo Environment

• Information Technology• Disaster Management

o Homeland Securityo Hurricane Preparedness

• Engineeringo Aerospace/Aviationo Manufacturingo Construction

• Arts/Communication/Interactive Entertainment

• Business & Global Economicso Financial Serviceso Professional Serviceso Hospitality

• Scienceso Life Scienceso Biotechnology Mfg.o Scientific & Technical Services

• Medical Serviceso Healthcareo Social Services

• Education• Technology

o Research and Developmento Emerging Technologies

Concluding Remarks

1. The linkage between employment opportunity, economic prosperity, and the educational system-particularly postsecondary education-is as critical to the nation’s future and to Florida’s role in that future.

2. There are sources of data that can and should be used to inform decisions about the types degrees to be offered that are based on historical trends, tempered by recent events. Consider:

• occupational projections by the Agency for Workforce Innovation.

• occupational needs analysis conducted by state organizations.

• placement data indicating which disciplines provide educated workers to which Florida industries.

• regional, as well as state level information from employers and organizations that represent them.

3. Sources need be considered that look beyond the “status quo” and relatively short term needs of the existing economy toward a new, more competitive economy for Florida.