The European Eggs & Poultry sector Forecast group - March 2009

The European Eggs & Poultry sectorForecast group - March 2009

DG AGRI C4 Forecast Group March 2009 2

Weekly evolution of the Community

price for Broiler

130.00

140.00

150.00

160.00

170.00

180.00

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€u

ro/

10

0k

g

Avg 03 - 07 2007 2008 2009


Percentual change of Broiler prices

J anuary 2009

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK EU

- 1 year

- 1 month


Prix Matières Premières

2006 - 2008

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

J uil Oct J an 07 April J uil Oct J an 08 April J uil Oct

Euro

/ to

nne

Blé tendre (EU)

Orge (EU)

Maïs (EU)

Soja (CAF)

Sons (EU)

P. d'I orge

155% P.d'I. maïs

Manioc (CAF)

C.G.F. (CAF)


Margin between Feedcost and Broiler in Broiler production

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 fe ap jn au oc de

Ec

u/1

00

kg

marge

feed

broiler


EU Imports of Poultry Meat:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %

Brazil 325 749 67.8% 456 872 74.4% 451 716 73.4% 671 889 78.3% 627 386 74.9%

Thailand 91 522 19.1% 92 751 15.1% 110 766 18.0% 129 447 15.1% 146 138 17.4%

Chile 19 956 4.2% 21 242 3.5% 18 272 3.0% 16 923 2.0% 34 549 4.1%

Argentina 11 685 2.4% 16 733 2.7% 15 023 2.4% 25 855 3.0% 20 260 2.4%

Israel 4 834 1.0% 6 180 1.0% 4 469 0.7% 9 078 1.1% 6 247 0.7%

Croatia 1 924 0.4% 1 677 0.3% 1 749 0.3% 1 682 0.2% 1 884 0.2%

USA 122 0.0% 98 0.0% 59 0.0% 240 0.0% 393 0.0%

Uruguay 72 0.0% 34 0.0% 162 0.0% 230 0.0% 109 0.0%EXTRA EU15-25-27 480 109 613 836 615 788 857 710 837 929

% change + 28% + 0% + 39% - 2.3%

2004 2005 2006 Jan-Dec 082007OriginsOrigins

Nov 2008 figures not available for Latvia


EU Poultry Meat ImportsDealing with increased

imports from

South America

IMPORTS of Poultry Meat into EU (Tonnes cwe)

451 716

671 838 627 386

110 766

129 171146 138

4 469

615 788

857 710 837 929

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

1 000 000

Jan-Dec 06 Jan-Dec 07 Jan-Dec 08

Tonn

es c

w

Brazil Thailand Israel

Chile Argentina Other destinations

IMPORTS of Poultry Meat into EU (1000 EUR)

761 1681 105 496 1 140 299

388 935

454 905601 4521 303 461

1 703 186

1 915 847

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000


1,00

0 EU

R

Brazil Thailand IsraelChile Argentina Other destinations



Imports of selected Poultry products

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

| 2006 | 2007 | 2008

in T

on

ne

s c

we

FROZEN PREPARED SALTED OTHERS



tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %

Russia 206 771 19.8% 261 377 26.2% 257 572 25.8% 244 377 28.2% 229 705 23.5%

Ukraine 127 932 12.2% 70 095 7.0% 80 963 8.1% 28 391 3.3% 112 736 11.5%

Saudi Arabia 84 161 8.0% 94 306 9.5% 76 894 7.7% 79 369 9.2% 95 132 9.7%

Benin 50 418 4.8% 47 991 4.8% 47 427 4.8% 64 436 7.4% 83 117 8.5%

Hong Kong 30 706 2.9% 41 347 4.1% 62 605 6.3% 64 705 7.5% 58 673 6.0%

Vietnam 168 0.0% 334 0.0% 2 398 0.2% 16 144 1.9% 39 415 4.0%

Ghana 20 624 2.0% 24 481 2.5% 30 337 3.0% 29 331 3.4% 31 497 3.2%

Sw itzerland 30 013 2.9% 29 226 2.9% 23 646 2.4% 27 494 3.2% 28 173 2.9%

U.A.Emirates 22 301 2.1% 24 255 2.4% 20 130 2.0% 17 455 2.0% 25 493 2.6%

Yemen 39 769 3.8% 35 215 3.5% 16 490 1.7% 26 795 3.1% 26 673 2.7%

Congo (Dem. Rep.) 18 711 1.8% 26 303 2.6% 25 952 2.6% 23 845 2.8% 20 564 2.1%

Malaysia 16 896 1.6% 17 236 1.7% 20 395 2.0% 26 300 3.0% 17 864 1.8%EXTRA EU15-25-27 1 045 611 997 405 997 174 866 054 979 358

% change - 5% - 0% - 13% + 13.1%

2004 2005 2006 Jan-Dec 082007

EU Exports of Poultry Meat:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)

DestinationsDestinations



EU Poultry Meat Exports

EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (Tonnes cwe)

257 572 244 371 229 705

76 894 79 369 95 132

80 963 112 73647 427

64 436

83 11762 60564 701

58 673

471 713385 001

399 995

997 174

866 054

979 358

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000


Tonn

es c

w

Russia Saudi Arabia UkraineBenin Hong Kong Other destinations

EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (1000 EUR)

139 989 169 850 201 73070 817 85 243

115 47937 444

89 140

33 67359 538

93 91865 719

64 128

599 062600 901

674 228

932 5401 016 898

1 238 623

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000


1,00

0 E

UR

Russia Saudi Arabia UkraineBenin Hong Kong Other destinations



Exports of selected Poultry products

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

| 2006 | 2007 | 2008

in T

on

ne

s c

we

FROZEN PREPARED FRESH OTHERS



EU Trade of Poultry Meat

255

638

302

134

277

315

291

911

309

997

371

028

676

051 79

3 92

4

480

109 61

3 83

6

615

788

857

710

837

929

871

689 1

017

429

1 10

1 29

3

1 11

5 73

3

1 15

2 80

5

1 11

3 60

8 1 27

4 77

7

1 06

3 37

8

1 04

5 61

1

997

405

997

174

866

054 97

9 35

8

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan-Dec08

To

nn

es

cw

e

IMPORTS EXPORTS



Cumulated quantity of weekly requests

for Export licenses in the Poultrymeat sectorfor Gatt year 2008 - 2009.

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51w eek

ton

nes

Cumulated attributions

Average available

Total: 128 600t.


Weekly exchange rate US dollar 2005 - 2009

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 |

1 €uro = .......US$


Index of exchange rates US$ and BRL compared to the €uro

January 2001 = 100

90.0

130.0

170.0

210.0

I 2001 I 2002 I 2003 I 2004 I 2005 I 2006 I 2007 I 2008 I 2009 |Real US$


Weekly Poultry prices in

Brazil (IEA Sao Paolo), USA and EU

50.00

75.00

100.00

125.00

150.00

175.00

year 2007 | Year 2008 | Year 2009 |

€uro

/ 100

kg

EU Vol Frango US Vol


Introduction

Weekly evolution of the Community

price for Eggs

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€u

ro/ 1

00

kg

Avg 03 - 07 2007 2008 2009


Percentual change of Egg prices

J anuary 2009

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL ÖS P L P T RO SI SK SF SV UK EU

- 1 year

- 1 month


Margin between feedcost and Eggprice in Egg production

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 fe ap jn au oc de

Ecu

/ 100kg

marge

feed

egg


Margin level per month in the Egg sector2005 - 2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Ecu

/ 10

0kg

2005 2006 2007 2008


EU Imports of Eggs :Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes egg equiv.)

OriginsOriginstonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %

Argentina 6 482 25.8% 7 595 25.5% 8 008 20.6% 8 251 17.4% 7 114 27.8%

India 8 788 34.9% 9 453 31.8% 12 730 32.7% 11 922 25.1% 6 634 25.9%

USA 2 587 10.3% 4 768 16.0% 8 505 21.8% 18 629 39.2% 5 550 21.7%

Albania 0.0% 0.0% 95 0.2% 2 095 4.4% 2 209 8.6%

Mexico 2 0.0% 2 168 7.3% 1 378 3.5% 1 765 3.7% 2 002 7.8%

Israel 678 2.7% 178 0.6% 898 2.3% 958 2.0% 685 2.7%

Canada 1 729 6.9% 2 091 7.0% 1 540 4.0% 1 242 2.6% 554 2.2%

Brazil 833 3.3% 1 140 3.8% 770 2.0% 671 1.4% 179 0.7%EXTRA EU15-25-27 25 167 29 742 38 950 47 484 25 587

% change + 18% + 31% + 22% - 46.1%

2004 2005 2006 Jan-Dec 082007



EU Eggs ImportsDealing with increased

imports from

South America

EU IMPORTS of EGGS (Tonnes)

8 505

18 629

5 550

8 008

8 318

7 114

12 730

11 922

6 634

1 540

2 209

8 071

5 277

3 526

38 950

47 484

25 587

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000


Tonn

es e

gg e

quiv

.

USA Argentina India Canada Albania Other destinations

EU IMPORTS of EGGS (1000 EUR)

24 69134 319

25 848

5 145

5 722

6 379

11 889

10 989

7 476

5 738

6 158

7 738

3 964

53 684

65 690

50 383

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000


1,00

0 EU

R

USA Argentina India Canada Albania Other destinations



EU-27 Imports of selected EGGS products

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

| 2006 | 2007 | 2008

in T

on

ne

s e

gg

eq

uiv

.

FRESH Albumin Not In Shell Yolk Haching


2008/2007Fresh - 75%Yolk - 59%

Whole - 38% Albumin -13%


EU Exports of Eggs :Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes egg equiv.)

DestinationsDestinationstonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %

Japan 65 411 33.1% 51 324 26.0% 49 263 24.4% 50 998 26.8% 61 183 28.7%

Sw itzerland 36 093 18.2% 38 996 19.7% 39 790 19.7% 43 339 22.7% 46 580 21.8%

Russia 7 778 3.9% 13 172 6.7% 14 973 7.4% 14 519 7.6% 14 343 6.7%

Ukraine 5 593 2.8% 9 232 4.7% 10 875 5.4% 10 785 5.7% 11 770 5.5%

U.A.Emirates 1 222 0.6% 1 172 0.6% 5 502 2.7% 6 012 3.2% 10 631 5.0%

Libya 3 779 1.9% 3 265 1.7% 5 535 2.7% 5 206 2.7% 7 256 3.4%

Israel 493 0.2% 2 856 1.4% 5 380 2.7% 4 649 2.4% 6 006 2.8%

Thailand 5 747 2.9% 5 804 2.9% 6 353 3.1% 8 279 4.3% 6 233 2.9%

Taiw an 4 306 2.2% 3 823 1.9% 3 183 1.6% 4 607 2.4% 4 624 2.2%

Angola 4 892 2.5% 5 525 2.8% 4 401 2.2% 3 186 1.7% 4 049 1.9%

Norw ay 485 0.2% 1 396 0.7% 2 557 1.3% 3 071 1.6% 2 017 0.9%

South Korea 1 572 0.8% 2 684 1.4% 2 567 1.3% 2 825 1.5% 1 859 0.9%EXTRA EU15-25-27 197 884 197 705 202 122 190 605 213 317

% change - 0% + 2% - 6% + 11.9%

2004 2005 2006 Jan-Dec 082007



EU Eggs Exports

EU EXPORTS of EGGS (Tonnes)

49 263 51 077 61 183

39 790 43 33946 580

14 973 14 51914 34310 875 10 78511 77010 631

81 718 64 874

68 808

202 122190 605

213 317

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000


Tonn

es e

gg e

quiv

.

Japan Switzerland RussiaUkraine U.A.Emirates Other destinations

EU EXPORTS of EGGS (1000 EUR)

28 272 32 161 47 556

45 681 53 53366 85129 099

31 837

32 780

15 759114 496112 332

118 186

24 370

236 964251 121

305 503

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000


1,00

0 EU

R

Japan Switzerland Russia

Ukraine U.A.Emirates Other destinations



EU-27 Exports of selected EGGS products

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

| 2006 | 2007 | 2008

in T

on

ne

s e

gg

eq

uiv

.

FRESH Albumin Not In Shell Yolk Haching

2008/2007 Fresh + 15% Yolk + 28%

Whole + 4% Albumin + 9%


EU Trade of Eggs9

715

17 9

43

22 7

13

18 2

17

17 0

21 26 8

40

15 8

11 29 9

51

69 3

86

25 1

67

29 7

42

38 9

50

47 4

84

25 5

87

144

265 16

3 79

3 185

711 20

8 99

9 230

987

201

483

204

883

191

199

142

023

197

884

197

705

202

122

190

605 21

3 31

7

0

25 000

50 000

75 000

100 000

125 000

150 000

175 000

200 000

225 000

250 000

275 000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan-Dec08

To

nn

es

IMPORTS EXPORTS



Cumulated quantity of weekly requests

for Export licenses in the Egg sector

for Gatt year 2008 - 2009.

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53w eek

ton

nes

Cumulated attributions

Average available

Total 23 600t.


Weekly Egg prices in

Brazil (IEA Sao Paolo), USA and EU

40.00

65.00

90.00

115.00

140.00

year 2007 | Year 2008 | Year 2009 |

€uro

/ 100k

g

EU Egg Ovo tipo grande branco US Egg


Experts production forecast of Eggs for consumption

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

1000

T

2006200720082009

Total UE 2009:6 345 000 t. (-2.3%)

-4.1%-0.5%

-73%!??

+0.8%


Expert Production Forecast of Eggs in 2009

FR94314%

ES923.9114%

DE775.311%

IT74411%

NL6449%

UK6259%

PL5568%

UEBL164.22%

Others1128.07

17%

RO337.65%


Experts production forecast of Poultry Meat

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

UEBLBG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

10

00

T

2006200720082009

Total 8 847 000 t.(+0.8%)

+2.1%-0.2%

+1%

+2.3%


Experts production forecast of Turkey Meat

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0


10

00

T

2006200720082009

Total 1 779 000t.-1.1%

-4%

+3%

Experts production forecast of Turkey Meat

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0


10

00

T

2006200720082009

+3%

-4%

-4.2%


Experts production forecast of Duck Meat

0

100

200

300


10

00

T

2006200720082009

Total 505 000t.+1.9%

-3.8%

+2.9%+32.7%


Experts production forecast of Poultry Meat

(0)

(200)

(400)

(600)

(800)

(1 000)

(1 200)

(1 400)

(1 600)

(1 800)

(2 000)


10

00

T

2006200720082009

Total 11 629 000t.+0.6%

+2.1%

-0.8%

-0.9%

+11%

+1.6%


Expert Production Forecast of Poultry Meat in 2009

FR1830.3

15%

UK1454.8

13%

DE1336.7

11%

ES1302.8

11%

PL129711%

IT10969%

NL6496%

HU422.1

4%

PT3173%

RO303.5

3%

Others1627.073

14%


Experts production forecast of Rabbit Meat

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


10

00

T

2006200720082009

-11.9%

-2.1%-1.5%

Total 348 000t.- 4.3%

Documents

The European Eggs & Poultry sector Forecast group - March 2009