Andy Sutton Principal Network Architect Network Strategy 12th November 2014

The Evolution of Mobile Communications Networks: 4G LTE-Advanced and 5G

Contents

1. We’ve come a long way in a short period of time…

2. Short-medium term traffic forecasts

3. What’s driving future growth

4. Forecasting average usage per user

5. User behaviour

6. Longer term forecasts and the impact of video

7. 4G evolution – LTE-Advanced

8. EE and 5G

9. 5G technical research topics

10. Summary

2

We’ve come a long way since GSM voice… GSM – GPRS (incl. EDGE) – UMTS (incl. HSDPA/HSUPA/HSPA+) – LTE (incl. VoLTE & LTE-A)

3

Data Demand is set for considerable growth over the next 5 years as the UK becomes increasingly mobile-centric

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MONTHLY DATA DEMAND (PB)

2G

3G

4G

Smartphone penetration grows Early 4G adoption Limited LTE Device portfolio Diversification and increase in available content drives usage

Device capability drives usage LTE Device portfolio diversifies Strong growth in 4G adoption High-bandwidth services proliferate

Mature data adoption LTE devices dominate 4G becomes default technology Behavioural shifts in usage

2x 4x

6.5x

9.5x

12x

Key growth drivers

COVERAGE

DEVICES SERVICES/APPS

DEMAND

PERFORMANCE

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

12x growth

2018 67% VIDEO

The increase in AUPU seen on devices using the 4G network is a key driver for growth as the 4GEE base grows

Non-4G AUPU set to double over next 5 years

5 x increase in 4G AUPU

2013 – 4G device AUPU was 50% higher than 3G device AUPU

2018 – 4G device AUPU will be 6.3 x non-4G device

Device type and performance both impact usage

Long-term UK market forecast

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Dec-15 Dec-20 Dec-25 Dec-30

Mo

nth

ly D

ata

Dem

an

d (

PB

)

E-mail/IM/Browsing/Download/MusicAugmented RealityMobile Gaming

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2020 2025 2030

Vid

eo

Data

rate

(M

bp

s)

Vid

eo

reso

luti

on

pen

etr

ati

on

8K 4K HD SD Video Bitrate

-

200

400

600

800

Dec-15 Dec-20 Dec-25 Dec-30Mo

nth

ly D

ata

Dem

an

d

(PB

)

Non-Video Data Demand

E-mail/IM/Browsing/Download/Music etc.

Augmented Reality

Mobile Gaming Other services will emerge and drive new revenue opportunities and capacity challenges

Streaming and video resolution are key drivers of long-term growth

22x

68% non-video demand

2030 76%

DEMAND VIDEO

The latest hype?

LTE-Advanced

•LTE-Advanced features include:

• Downlink Carrier Aggregation

• Uplink Carrier Aggregation

• Downlink MIMO (>R8)

• Uplink MIMO

• Heterogeneous Networks (HetNets)

• Relays

• Self Organising Networks (SON)

• UE Advanced Receivers

• Coordinated Multipoint Transmission

and Reception (CoMP)

EE is pro-actively contributing to the 5G eco-system

• Platinum Founding Member of the 5G Innovations Centre at the University of Surrey

• Supporting UK Government’s objective to ensure the UK is a major player in 5G networks and services research and development - knowledge economy

• Supporting EU Horizon 2020 bids on behalf of UK academic organisations; financing leading edge research in the UK

• Working within International industry fora to develop 5G research and further understanding

• Engagements with global partners to influence the development of the 5G eco-system

Our 5G strategy?

“The same as our 4G strategy – always stay one step ahead of demand for capacity, peak & average speeds, low-latency

and innovative services.”

Sharing

SON

Security… Massive MIMO

Full duplex

NFV SDN

Ultra-high definition video

And what does 5G look like….

5G Network (with 4G and evolved WiFi)

Ultra high capacity

On demand services

Ultra low-latency

Ultra reliable

Always sufficient rate (speed)

Wide area coverage

In-building coverage

Stadiums and hot-spots

New spectrum

Ultra dense networks

New waveforms

Separation of control and user plane

Energy efficient

Application aware

Seamless mobility

Device to device

Internet of Things

Summary

• 4G is the start of true mobile broadband – an IP based multi-media communications system

• Demand is huge, and will keep growing

• We will continue to evolve 4G to increase capacity, increase speeds and enhance the experience

• 5G is at the fundamental research stage, but will complement 4G networks

• 5G will support ultra dense networks with even higher peak and average data rates, with ultra low-latency to enable the tactile web and immersive real-time video

• 4G can take us to 1Gbps; 5G is everything beyond that…

14

THANK YOU

andy.sutton@ee.co.uk