The Hazardous Weather Testbed / Experimental Warning Program

Travis Smith (OU / CIMMS / NSSL)David Andra (NWS / WFO / OUN)

2nd Workshop on Severe Weather Technology for NWS Warning Decision-Making – July 11, 2007

What is the Hazardous Weather Testbed?

• Both a facility and an organization…• The facility is located on the second floor of the new NWC, between the SPC and WFO OUN operational forecasting areas.• An organization that supports and promotes collaborative research activities between NSSL, SPC, OUN, and the broader meteorological community of researcher scientists, academia, and forecasters.

Two Main Program Areas…

Experimental

Warning

Program

Experimental

Forecast

ProgramEFP EWP

Prediction of hazardous mesoscale and stormscale events from a few hours to a week in advance on spatial domains ranging from several counties to the CONUS.

Detection and prediction of hazardous mesoscale and stormscale events up to several hours in advance on spatial domains of counties to fractions of counties.

HWT’s Experimental Warning Program Focuses on mesoscale and stormscale

technology, science, and services. Collaborative approach involving NOAA

research and operations, universities, and elements of user community.

Activities rely on visiting scientists and forecasters from across nation.

Results support NOAA mission and goals at 122 WFOs nationwide

CollaborationA few miscellaneous projects…

NSSL / SPC / ROC / GSD / WFO

JDOP

Pre-STORM

NEXRAD IOT&E II

VORTEX

mid early mid-late late ’80s - ’70s ’80s 85 ’80s 1989 early ’90s 1994-95 mid ’90s 1997 thru 2007 +

Early algorithms

DOPLIGHT

MAPS

COPS

QED

Stormtipe

Pre-AWIPS

Risk Reduction

WDSS

AWIPS

NSSL/SPCWDSS IIJPOLCOMETIHOPORDA

Results JDOP…… Operational Doppler weather

radar MAPS etc…… Hazardous Weather Outlook IOT&E II…… WSR-88D Deployment Risk reduction/ISPAN…… Modernized field offices Experimental SPC outlooks…… Operational probabilistic outlooks WDSS……. Next generation algorithms /

SCAN deployment Convective initiation…… SPC operational RUC based

analysis/forecast SREF…… SPC operational ensemble

forecast AWIPS w/s prototype……. Design implementation JPOLE……. Dual pol deployment PAR…… TBD

FY07 EWP Experiments

NSSL PAR

CASA

Probabilistic Warning Guidance

Visiting / local warning decision- making experts:

• evaluation

• collaboration

Severe HAzards Verification Experiment

“Warn on Detection” (today) Deterministic Forecaster identifies

threat area (T=0) and projects future motion of threat

Forecaster may anticipate future evolution

Threat area is defined by non-translating polygon

Short lead times

“Warn on Forecast” Probabilistic Storm-scale model

ensemble analysis and forecastevery 5-10

minutes?! 1-2 hour lead

times?! What is the

forecaster’s role?

How do we getfrom this… to this?

Probabilistic Warning Guidance

Bridge to Warn On Forecast

High resolution in space and time

Goal: Improve decision support for high impact weather hazards. Initially convective

hazards

Initial threat area

30 min. threat probability

1 hr threat swath (accum)

Est. time of arrival

The Vision: The future evolution of warning decision-making science

Fore

cast

er-b

ased

unc

erta

inty

“War

n on

det

ectio

n” (d

eter

min

istic)

Blend

ed s

tatis

tics

NWP W

RF st

orm

typi

ng

Statis

tics-

base

d un

certa

inty

NWP “W

arn

on fo

reca

st”

Storm

-sca

le N

WP E

nKF

anal

ysis

/ sto

rm ty

ping

Existing stormsNewly initiated convection

Present 2010 (± 2 yr) 2017 (± 5 yr) 2025 (± 10 yr)

Forecast convection (doesn’t yet exist)

WSR-88D Dual-Polarization Radar Phased Array RadarCASA

The Vision: The future evolution of warning decision-making science

Fore

cast

er-b

ased

unc

erta

inty

“War

n on

det

ectio

n” (d

eter

min

istic)

Blend

ed s

tatis

tics

NWP W

RF st

orm

typi

ng

Statis

tics-

base

d un

certa

inty

NWP “W

arn

on fo

reca

st”

Storm

-sca

le N

WP E

nKF

anal

ysis

/ sto

rm ty

ping

Existing stormsNewly initiated convection

Present 2010 (± 2 yr) 2017 (± 5 yr) 2025 (± 10 yr)

Forecast convection (doesn’t yet exist)

WSR-88D Dual-Polarization Radar Phased Array RadarCASA

Statistics / storm-scale analysis /threat identification

Data assimilation / NWP

A couple of thoughts

Very specific warning information requires very detailed verification information.TemporalSpatial

This is one vision. Is it on track? Does it need minor or major modifications?

Acknowledgements

HWT leadership: Mike Foster, Jeff Kimpel, Joe Schaefer, Jack Kain, Steve Weiss, David Andra, Travis Smith

2007 Project PIs, EWP Coordinators, Weather Briefers, and Evaluators: Jerry Brotzge, Don Burgess, Patrick Burke, John Ferree, Brad Grant, Pam Heinselman, Angelyn Kolodziej, Jim Ladue, Les Lemon, Kevin Manross, Mike Magsig, Dan Miller, Steve Nelson, Kiel Ortega, Brenda Philips, Liz Quoetone, Kevin Scharfenberg, Paul Schlatter, Dave Sharp, Greg Stumpf, Arthur Witt, and anyone who I inadvertently left out.