© Workforce Planning Australia - www.workforceplanning.com.au

The Hume Workforce Development Committee

Hume Regional Development Australia

Health & Community Services Labour Market SnapshotWorkforce Planning Australia | March 2012

Health & Community Services Industry

2 |

The Health & Community Services Industry includes the following sectors.

Health & Community

Services

IndigenousHealth

DisabilityServices

Alcohol &Drugs

Mental Health

Oral & DentalAged

Care

EmploymentServices

ChildrenServices

Source: Community Service and Health Industry Skills Council: Environmental Scan 2011

Hospitals

Comp Health

Industry Snapshot

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• Health and Community Services is Australia’s largest employing industry.

• Approximately 60 % of the total workforce is in Health sector with remaining 40% in Community Services.

• Between 2005 – 2010 the industry contributed the largest number of new jobs created in Victoria.

• The industry is the 2nd fastest growing industry in Australia behind Mining.

• The ‘Carers and Aides’ occupation has the highest projected employment growth from 2011-2016 across all industries in Australia.

Source: DEEWR, Australian Jobs, 2011

National Industry Overview

Industry Employment

• Health Care and Social Assistance is the largest employing industry in Australia.• At Feb 2011 total employment in the industry was 1,310,800 people.

5 |Source: ABS Labour Force Survey, February 2012 data.

Industry Employment Level February 2012

Historical Employment Growth

6 |Source: ABS Labour Force Survey (trend data) cat no 6291.0.55.003, DEEWR, Australian Jobs, 2011

Figure: Employment Level (‘000)- 1993 to 2011

• Employment growth has been strong and constant over the period 1993-2011.

Projected Employment Growth

7 |

Figure: Projected Employment Growth (% pa)- 2011 & 5 years to 2015-16

Source: ABS Labour Force Survey (trend data) cat no 6291.0.55.003 (DEEWR Projections), DEEWR, Australian Jobs, 2011

• Employment growth is projected to be strong over the next 10 years well above the all industries projection.

• The greatest growth was expected in 2011. The growth rate is projected to only taper off slightly over the next 10 years.

Occupations

8 |Source: ABS Labour Force Survey (trend data) cat no 6291.0.55.003, DEEWR, Australian Jobs, 2011

Figure: Main Employing Occupations

• Registered Nurses and Aged & Disabled Carers are the highest employing occupations in the industry

Projected Occupational Growth

9 |

Figure: Occupational Growth to 2015-16

Source: DEEWR, Australian Jobs, 2011

• Carers & Aides are projected to experience the strongest employment growth behind Medical Practitioners and Nurses.

Drivers of Workforce Growth

All the drivers of workforce growth will be long term.

10 |

Workforce growth health &

community services

Ageing population

Increasing life

expectancy

Decreasing availability of

informal carers

Growing no. of people with disabilities

More clients with complex

needsChanges to

Service DeliveryChange in

Children's Services

Source: Environmental Scan 2011, Community Services & Health Industry Skills Council

Drivers of Workforce Growth

Ageing population • The industry has a large proportion of older workers with nearly half of the workforce

aged 45 years or older. Many of these workers will be approaching retirement in the next 10 years.

Increased life expectancy • From 2010-2050 the number of people over the age of 85 will increase four-fold

(From 400,000 to 1.8million). The demand on health care for an older population will increase in line with this trend.

Increased number or people with disabilities• The number of Australians with a disability is expected to increase by over 50% by

2030. The demand for disabilities services is currently growing by 7.5% per year and the long-term care scheme (if implemented) will provide lifetime service entitlement from the point of disability identification.

Clients have increasingly complex needs• The health system is identifying more dual and multiple disabilities, substance abuse

problems and challenging behaviours with complex service requirements.

11 |Source: Environmental Scan 2011, Community Services & Health Industry Skills Council

Drivers of Workforce Growth

Changes to Service Delivery• Health policy will shift current service delivery models to emphasise prevention,

primary, community and home-based services, client functional independence and person-centric approaches.

Reducing availability of informal carers (family and friends)• The number of informal carer is expected to drop due to decreasing family size, client

preferences, increase in single or divorced people and increased workforce participation, especially by women.

Change in Children's Services• The new National Quality Standard introduced mandated qualifications for most

children’s services as well as changes to staff-to-child ratios. New services, work roles and skills sets will be needed to support this framework.

12 |Source: Environmental Scan 2011, Community Services & Health Industry Skills Council

Skills Shortages

13 |

• The industry is undergoing a period of significant change with new roles emerging and roles changing to match service demands. For example, there has been increased use of assistants and advanced practitioners in recent years.

• The Australian Government Skill Shortages List for Health and Community Services workers (often relating to ‘experienced’ staff, or staff with specialist skills) includes:

– Radiographers– Sonographers – Speech pathologists (experienced, Grade 2 and above)– Physiotherapists (Grade 2 and above, specialist areas)– Medial practitioners – Div 1 Nurses (Community Health)– Div 2 Nurses (acute and critical care exp and other specialist skills)– Social Workers (Regional areas) – Child Care workers (metro)– Optometrists– Podiatrists– Audiologists– Psychologists– Social Workers (particularly in regional areas)– Welfare Workers – Dental Technician

It should be noted that mostshortages are amongst degree

qualified professionals.

Hume Overview

Employment in Health & Social Assistance by LGA

2006 vs. 2011 Census Data

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Towong311 (2006)

Wodonga2,243 (2006)

Alpine566 (2006)

Mansfield344 (2006)

Hume Region BoundarySub-region BoundaryLocal Government Area (LGA) Boundary

Indigo506 (2006)

Murrindindi432 (2006)

Mitchell1,067 (2006)

Strathbogie342 (2006)

G Shepparton

Moira1,257 (2006)

Wangaratta2,397 (2006)

Benalla732 (2006)

3,976 (2006)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

Total Industry 14,173 (2006)

TBC (2012)

Source: ABS Census Data 2006

Employment growth Projection in Hume

• According to Monash projections employment is expected to level out and remain steady over the period to 2015.

16 |

Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria.Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011 (Hume Employment: by ANZSCO occupation, '000 persons, 2010-1 to 2017-8)

2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-60

5

10

15

20

25

Employment

Total Employment

Occupations in Hume

• 12% of the Hume workforce is employed in the Health and Community Services industry, making it the third highest employer in the region.

• The 10 largest industry occupations in Hume versus Australia are shown below (highest to lowest):

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Hume AustraliaRegistered Nurses Registered NursesAged and Disabled Carers Aged and Disabled CarersChild Carers Child carersNursing support workers/Personal care

Nursing support/Personal care

Receptionists ReceptionistsEnrolled and mothercraft nurses General Medical PractitionersKitchen hands Enrolled and Mothercraft nursesCommercial cleaners Welfare Support WorkersWelfare Support Workers Kitchen hands General Medical Practitioners Dental Assistants

Occupation Employment Levels

The top employing occupations employment levels in the region are as follows:

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ANZOG Occupation Employment (2011-12)

2544 Registered Nurses 4.07729

4231 Aged & Disabled Carers 2.30762

4211 Child Carers 1.64115

4233 Nursing Support Workers 1.36591

5421 Receptionists 1.3118

4114 Enrolled & Mothercraft Nurse 1.00247

8513 Kitchen hand 0.66794

8112 Commercial Cleaners 0.58681

4117 Welfare Support Workers 0.58051

2531 Generalist Medical Practitioners 0.43344

Health & Community Services (Top 10 occupations by employment level Hume)

Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria .

Note: Red text indicates occupation included as part of this labour market analysis

Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011 (Hume Employment: by ANZSCO occupation, '000 persons, 2010-1 to 2017-8)

Occupation growth

• Monash projections show growth in all occupations.• Strongest growth is expected in Registered Nurses and Aged & Disabled Carers.

19 |

Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria.

Registered Nurses

Aged & Disabled Carers

Child Carers

Nursing Support Workers

Receptionists

Enrolled & Mothercraft Nurse

Kitchenhands

Commercial Cleaners

Welfare Support Workers

Generalist Medical Practners

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

2010-12015-6

Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011 (Hume Employment: by ANZSCO occupation, '000 persons, 2010-1 to 2017-8)

Industry Education attainment levels

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• VET education enrolment data shows an increase in course enrolments for the industry. Growth is being driven by the Cert III and diploma level qualifications.

Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

Advanced Diploma

Certificate II

Certificate III

Certificate IV

Diploma

0200 400 600 800 100

0120

0140

0160

0180

0200

0

20082011

Age profile of enrolments

• Across all industry occupations there has been the greatest growth in VET course enrolments from the 15-19 and 40-44 year old age groups.

21 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 and over

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

20082011

© Workforce Planning Australia - www.workforceplanning.com.au

Health & Community Services VET Education DataAged and Disabled CarersChildcare WorkersWelfare WorkersEnrolled Nurses

Course Enrolments ‘Aged and Disabled Carers’

VET Course Enrolments – ‘Carers’

24 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

• Course enrolments have generally remained consistent 2008-2011.

VET Enrolments Age Profile – ‘Carers’

25 |

15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 and over

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

20082011

Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

• The highest enrolments are among the 15-19 aged group. This group has also experienced the greatest increase over the period 2008-2011.

• There is a significant proportion of enrolments in the 40 plus age group.

Diversity of VET Enrolments – ‘Carers’

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Disabled Indigenous CALD0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

20082011

• All diversity groups showed an increase in enrolments with strongest growth coming from Indigenous students.

Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

Childcare WorkersCourse Enrolments

VET Course Enrolments –Childcare workers

28 |

Certificate III in Children's Services

Certificate IV in Children's Services (Outside school hours care)

Diploma of Children's Services

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

20082011

Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

• Childcare enrolments have increased over the period.

• Cert III in Children’s Services have more than doubled since 2008.

VET Enrolments Age Profile –Childcare workers

29 |

15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 and over

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20082011

Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

• The highest enrolments are among the 15-19 aged group. This group has also experienced the greatest increase over the period 2008-2011.

• There is a significant proportion of enrolments in the 40 plus age group.

Diversity of VET EnrolmentsChildcare Workers

30 |

Disabled Indigenous CALD0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

20082011

Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

• Enrolments of diverse students have slightly declined over the period 2008-2011 with the greatest reduction in CALD enrolments.

Welfare Workers Course Enrolments

VET Course Enrolments – Welfare Workers

32 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

Certificate IV in Social Housing

Diploma of Community Services (Alcohol and other drugs)

Diploma of Community Services (Alcohol, other drugs and mental health)

Diploma of Community Services (Case Management)

Diploma of Community Services Work

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

20082011

• Welfare worker enrolments have increased over the period.

• The Diploma of Community Services Work has seen the most significant growth.

VET Enrolments Age Profile –Welfare Workers

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15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 and over

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

20082011

Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

• The highest enrolments are among the 40-44 aged group. This group has also experienced the greatest increase over the period 2008-2011.

• There is a significant proportion of enrolments in the 20-30 and 40 plus age groups.

Diversity of VET Enrolments –Welfare Workers

34 |

Disabled Indigenous CALD0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20082011

Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

• Enrolments of diverse students have slightly declined over the period 2008-2011.

(Div 2) Enrolled Nurses

Course Enrolments

VET Course Enrolments – Enrolled Nurses

36 |Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

Advanced Diploma of Nursing (Enrolled/Division 2 nursing)

Certificate IV in Health (Nursing)

Certificate IV in Nursing (Enrolled/Division 2 nursing)

Diploma of Nursing (Enrolled/Division 2 nursing)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

20082011

• Nurse enrolments have increased over the period.

• The Diploma of Nursing has seen the most significant growth.

VET Enrolments Age Profile –Enrolled Nurses

37 |

15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 and over

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

20082011

Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

• The highest enrolments are in the 20-24 year aged group.

• There is a significant proportion of enrolments in the 40-54 age groups.

Diversity of VET Enrolments – Enrolled Nurses

38 |

Disabled Indigenous CALD0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

20082011

Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

• Enrolments of diverse students have increased over the period 2008-2011.

• The greatest growth has been in disabled students.

Future direction

What this means?

• Strong enrolments in Health and Social Assistance related courses in Hume suggest people understand it is a large & growing industry with increasing opportunities.

• Personal Carers and Aides have the highest projected growth across all occupations and industries and is the largest employing occupation in Aged Care. The ageing profile in the region means growth for this occupation will continue.

• Aged Care / Personal Carers – While the highest enrolments in HUME are among 15-19 year olds enrolments are also strong in the 40 plus aged groups. Young people are joining this industry, but are difficult to retain? Local research is needed to understand why.

• The region has achieved increased enrolments in these courses from people with disabilities, CALD and Indigenous in recent years (2008-2011).

• Local people are pursuing work as Childcare Workers – Enrolments in Hume in Certificate III has more than doubled since 2008. Have barriers to CALD groups joining the childcare industry been identified?

• Welfare Workers– Enrolments in Hume courses suggest it is viewed as a second (or third career). What are the common pathways to this occupation?

• Division 2 Nurses – Enrolments in Hume have increased in all age groups except for the 35-39 age group. The increased enrolments in Division 2 Nursing is assumed to be related to registration requirements

40 |

Questions

• Are there other smaller occupations that are showing growth at the local level?• Which occupations are employers reporting local skill shortages or recruitment

difficulties?• What is the nature of the shortages/or difficulties? E.g. Are they seasonal? In pockets?

For certain shifts or positions? Specific regions?

• Are shortages caused by high turnover rather than too few applicants?

• If turnover is high for certain groups (e.g. Under 25s) Why? Is there a poor match between occupation and person, the course not sufficiently preparing students or expectations not matching reality?

• Is turnover low for particular groups? Why?

• What are the local examples where skill shortages have been resolved (e.g. job re-design, new pathways to grow their own’

• Are there clear pathways into these occupations and from these occupations to others?41 |