60
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER Bruce Lambert 1

THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    6

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI

RIVER

Bruce Lambert

1

Page 2: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

What is the Mississippi

River anyway?

Page 3: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

It is a System of Systems… 3

Environmental

Water Resources

Ports-Terminals

Commodities

Equipment

Connectivity

Institutional-Regulatory

Remember:

• Magnitude

• Scale

• Complexity

• Simplicity

Page 4: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

The Lower Mississippi River 4

Page 5: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Outline 5

Inland Navigation

Deep Draft Navigation

“How Does This Thing Work”

Resiliency

The Economics of the River

The Future of the River

Page 6: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Inland Navigation 6

Page 7: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Inland Waterway Assets

Memphis

Vicksburg

Other Systems

Red River

Arkansas River

GIWW

7

Page 8: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Trade Patterns- Domestic Waterway

Tonnage to/from Louisiana (2010) 8

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Millio

ns

Northbound

Southbound

Page 9: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Top Commodities Moved on the River

(2010) 9

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Northbound Southbound

Millio

ns

Unknown and Not Elsewhere ClassifiedProducts

Manufactured Goods

Food and Food Products

Primary Metal Products

Primary Non-Metal Products

Iron Ore, Iron, and Steel Waste and Scrap

Sand, Gravel, Shells, Clay, Salt, and Slag

Chemicals excluding Fertilizers

Chemical Fertilizers

Petroleum Products

Crude Petroleum

Page 10: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Competing Corridors (FAF, 2010) 10

Air (include truck-air) 0%

Multiple modes & mail 5%

No domestic mode 1%

Other and unknown 1%

Pipeline

34%

Rail 7%

Truck 28%

Water 24%

Air (include truck-air) 0%

Multiple modes & mail 15%

No domestic mode 0%

Other and unknown 1% Pipeline

3%

Rail

8%

Truck 6%

Water 67%

Northbound 107,396

Southbound 390,459

Page 11: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Physical Assets

Baton Rouge

South Louisiana

New Orleans

St. Bernard

Plaquemines

Number of Deep draft

facilities

Anchorages

Fleet areas

11

Page 12: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Value of International Trade through

the Lower River (2003-2011) (vessel value) 12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Vess

el V

alu

e (

$billions)

Exports Imports

Page 13: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Top Trading Partners – Exports (vessel

value) 13

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Africa

Asia

Western Europe

Canada

Mexico

Middle East

South America

Central America

Caribbean

Oceania

Page 14: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Top Trading Partners – Imports (vessel

value) 14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Africa

Asia

Western Europe

Canada

Mexico

Middle East

South America

Central America

Caribbean

Oceania

Page 15: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Depth of Vessels Leaving New Orleans,

October 2012 (480 Vessels) (NOBOT)

<10 0%

10-15 0%

15-20 4%

20-25 14%

25-30 24%

30-35 18%

35-40 29%

40-45 8%

>45 3%

Draft of Vessels (in feet) Leaving NO

Departures by Port Jurisdiction

River Mile No. of Vessel

Departures

2.4 - 91.0 68

91.1 - 104.8 122

104.9 - 209.9 268

210 - 233.8 21

IHNC 1

15

Page 16: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Supply Chains and Logistics? 16

Page 17: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Mississippi River and Its Relationship to

State Exports (2011) 17

Shading Indicates

Ranking based on Share

of Export Tonnage

% represents share

of Total State

exports through the

Miss River Corridor

Page 18: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Top Export Commodities, 2011 18

Mineral Fuel, Oil Etc.; Bitumin Subst; Mineral

Wax 35%

Cereals 20%

Oil Seeds Etc. 19% Organic

Chemicals 5%

Prep Animal Feed 4%

Animal Or Vegetable Fats,

Oils 3%

Plastics Etc. 2%

Inorganic Chemicals

2%

Iron And Steel 1%

Miscellaneous Chemical Products

1% Other 8%

Page 19: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Share of Top Commodities – Exports of

US, 2011 (Value) 19

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

TOTAL ALL COMMODITIES

Mineral Fuel, Oil Etc.; Bitumin…

Cereals

Oil Seeds Etc.; Misc Grain, Seed,…

Organic Chemicals

Food Industry Residues & Waste;…

Animal Or Vegetable Fats, Oils…

Plastics And Articles Thereof

Inorg Chem; Prec & Rare-Earth…

Iron And Steel

Miscellaneous Chemical Productsus total

US maritime

Gulf Coast

Page 20: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Top Import Commodities, 2011 20

Mineral Fuel, Oil 57%

Iron And Steel 9%

Fertilizers 6%

Organic Chemicals

3%

Rubber And Articles Thereof

3%

Inorg Chem; 3%

Copper 3%

Coffee, Tea, Mate & Spices

3%

Animal Or Vegetable Fats

3%

Salt; Sulfur; Earth & Stone; Lime & Cement Plaster

1% Other 9%

Page 21: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Share of Top Commodities – Imports of

US, 2011 (Value) 21

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

TOTAL ALL COMMODITIES

Mineral Fuel, Oil Etc.; Bitumin Subst; Mineral Wax

Iron And Steel

Fertilizers

Organic Chemicals

Rubber And Articles Thereof

Inorg Chem; Prec & Rare-Earth Met & Radioact Compd

Copper And Articles Thereof

Coffee, Tea, Mate & Spices

Animal Or Vegetable Fats, Oils Etc. & Waxes

Salt; Sulfur; Earth & Stone; Lime & Cement Plaster

us total

US maritime

Gulf Coast

Page 22: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Soybeans: Production and Markets,

1996-2011 22

USDA 2012/2013 forecasts:

production: 2.860 billion bushels

exports: 1.265 billion bushels (44%)

Cost comparison:

30¢/bushel by water

60¢/bushel by rail to other markets

Page 23: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Considerations for waterways in

considering routing decisions 23

Storage (on-farm, on dock)

Capacity-Scale

Inventory Carrying Costs

Identity preservation

Availability of barges

Costs

When/Whom will you sell your grains

Page 24: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

How Does This “Thing” work?

Page 25: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

LPG Barge 25

Page 26: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Interharbor Canal 26

Page 27: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

MidStream Transfers 27

Page 28: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

MidStream Transfers 28

Page 29: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Container Operations 29

Page 30: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

New Orleans Public Belt

Publically

Owned-

Operated RR

25 miles track

97 miles

yard/switching

30

Page 31: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Inland Connectivity-Highways

I-10

I-59

I-49

I-55

I-20

I-40

Tchoupitoulas Corridor

Claiborne Avenue

31

Page 32: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Vessel and Service Options 32

Implications on

Transportation Planning

Vessel Costs

Scheduling

Fleeting\Fueling

Safe Navigation

Vessel Type Service Type

Container Liner

Break-bulk

Liner/Tramp

Bulk- LNG Tramp

Bulk-dry bulk

Tramp

Bulk-chemical

Tramp

Bulk-liquid

Tramp

Barges Tramp/Liner

Page 33: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Warehousing in New Orleans

Break bulk Cargo

Reefer Cargo

London’s Metal Exchange

33

Page 34: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Containers in Mississippi River

2011: 476, 413 TEU’s

New Projects

Napoleon Avenue Intermodal Terminal

$16.7 million TIGER grant

New Orleans Cold Storage

Liner Services

CMA CGM

CSAV

ZIM

Hamburg Sud

Hapag-Lloyd

Mediterranean Shipping Company

Seaboard Marine

Maesrk

Libra

34

Page 35: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Maritime Gateways are limited

Page 36: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Resiliency 36

Page 37: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

37

Page 38: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Hurricane Response

1. Regulation

Navigation Areas

2. 24 hours before

shutdown mouth of

river

3. Preassessment

1. Barges moved up past Mile 71

2. Vessels tied to docks, anchorages

3. Tug assists on standby

4. Deep draft vessels past Huey P. Long Bridge

38

Notification Schedule (Capt. Of Port)

Response Outcome

1. Open to Navigation after

12 Hours after passage

of Storm (40 days for

light navigation after

Katrina)

2. Only 17 loose barges

(over 2200 vessels in

Katrina)

Page 39: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

The Horizon Oil spill (2010)

– Snapshot of Ships and Spill 39

Page 40: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Some Potential Effects of Inland River

Closures

Reliability - Closure Impact Avoidance

Plant Closure/Idling

Jobs/Earnings

Lost Output

Water Supply Disruption

Industrial/Hydropower

Municipal

Road Closures

Recreational Losses

Environmental Losses

NETS Studies (IWR-USACE)

Greenup 2003 Closure (52 days)- $42 Million

Hannibal Locks 2005 Closure (5 days)-$5 Million

Lock 27 Closures

(August 2007)-$3.9 Million

(Oct 2005-Feb 2006)- $2.7 Million

McAlpine (August 2004)-$6.3 million

2008 Flooding in Upper Miss?

GLOBAL Insight – Upper Miss 90 Day Closure

$118.6 million for Waterway freight

$482.8 million by rail

$1.50 billion by truck

Page 41: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Dredging in the Mississippi River

Within the Navigation

Channel

Crossings

Draft Restrictions

Navigation Restrictions

At the Mouth of the

River

Sediment

Coastal Restoration

Salt Water Barrier

Disposal areas

41

Page 42: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Differences of River Management from

other Public Sector Assets

Institutional

Corps- Responsible for

Condition of

Navigation Channels

USCG – Responsible

for Safe Navigation

Project Planning

Physical

System redundancy

Project Scale

Funding

User does not

determine maintenance

needs

42

Page 43: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

How Many People Work in the

Maritime Industry?

Dockworkers

Transportation

Agents

Brokers

Clerks

Jones Act

43

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Millions

of

Dollars

Wages Paid to Workers in Water Transportation, all Louisiana

Page 44: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Louisiana Exports as Share of Total

State GDP 1997 -2011 44

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Page 45: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Exports as Share of Louisiana Metropolitan

Statistical Areas GDP, 2010

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Lake Charles; LA

New Orleans; LA

Baton Rouge; LA

Houma; LA

Lafayette; LA

Monroe; LA

Shreveport; LA

Alexandria; LA

45

Page 46: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

What is the Value of the River?

Big River Coalition

GNO-BR Chamber Study

Louisiana MTS System

Port Association of Louisiana

Statewide Transportation

Planning

46

Page 47: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Future of Traffic on the River 47

Page 48: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Changes ahead

Structural Changes

Demographic changes in US

Changes in world markets

Export focus

Free Trade Agreements

Competition in Global Markets

Logistical Changes

Panama Canal

New Cargos

Shifting Trade lanes

48

Page 49: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

What are Natural Markets?

Page 50: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

(Real Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, 2005=1.0)

U.S. Dollar Depreciating

Source: IHS Global Insight

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Major Currency Index Other Important Trading Partners Index

50

Page 51: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

U.S. Share of World GDP, 1980-2012

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

Billions

of

U.S

. D

ollars

World GDP US$ U.S. Share of World GDP

Source: International Monetary Fund, 2012.

51

Page 52: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: SHARE OF SELECTED PARTNERS IN TOTAL TRADE, 2000-2020 A. (PERCENTAGES)

EXPORTS

IMPORTS

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of information from the United Nations COMTRADE Database and national sources. A/ Projections from 2011 to 2020 are based on GDP growth rates for the years 2000-2010 in Asia-Pacific, China, the European Union, Latin America and the Caribbean, the United States and the rest of the world. The growth rate of trade is expected to converge with the economies’ long-term growth rate.

Page 53: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

NAFTA OtherAmericas

WesternEurope

EmergingEurope

Mideast-N.Africa

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Japan OtherAsia-

Pacific

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-20

(Real GDP, percent change)

Source: IHS Global Insight

GDP Growth Rates For Various Regions 53

Page 54: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

M-5

M-95

M-10

M-90

M-70 M-55

M-5

(AK)

M-65

M-40

M-49

M-87

M-5 (AK)

M-64

M-A1

M-84

M-580

Potential Marine Highway Services

M-2

LEGEND

MH Corridor

MH Connector

MH Crossing

U.S. Interstate

M-55

M-70

M-95

M-5

M-90

M-90

Page 55: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

China and U.S. Gateways, 2011

California – Southern Tier

PNW (US and Canada) – Northern Tier

Gulf Coast Ports through Panama Canal

South Atlantic Ports through Suez Canal/Panama Canal

Airport Gateways

55

Airports 28%

Gulf Coast 1%

East Coast 16%

Other 4%

West Coast 51%

Airports 31%

Gulf Coast 11%

East Coast 19%

Other 6%

West Coast 33%

Imports

Exports

Page 56: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

The Panama Canal and The Mississippi

River

Share of Miss. River Traffic that transits the Canal

Imports 15%

Exports 41%

Share of the Canal that moves to/from Miss River

Share of East Coast Trade 44%

Share of Total Panama Canal tonnage 25%

56

Some Issues?

Air draft at Crescent City Connection

Container imbalance

Ship Rotations

Transshipment Competition

Page 57: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Changing Hinterlands from the Panama

Canal? 57

Faster Transit

Economies of Scale

Anything else?

Bulk

Exports

Container availability

Page 58: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Conclusion… 58

Page 59: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Summary? 59

The Mississippi River is a System of Systems

A dynamic corridor that shapes the US economy

In any transportation study, magnitude must be considered

The River’s success depends upon:

Density (Scale, velocity)

Operations (water, safety)

Capital (investing, funding)

Knowledge (tell the story, information)

Respond (changing markets, modes)

Page 60: THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ITTS

Bruce Lambert

Executive Director

Institute for Trade and

Transportation Studies

540-455-9882

[email protected]