The Millennial Generation:A Demographic Bridge to America’s

Diverse Future

WILLIAM H. FREYBrookings Institution

Washington, DCJanuary 30, 2018

How will they serve as a “bridge” across generations?3

Where are millennials living? 2

Who are millennials and how distinct are they?1

3

4

How do their socioeconomic characteristics differ?

2

Who are millennials and how distinct are they?1

3

4

Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates

75%62% 56% 52%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Age 55+ Age 35-54 Age 18-34 Age 18 andunder

Hispanic

2+ races

Asian

Am. Indian/Alaska

native

Black

White

US race/ethnic profiles by age group

#Millennials

0 10 20

Age 0-4

Age 10-14

Age 20-24

Age 30-34

Age 40-44

Age 50-54

Age 60-64

Age 70-74

Age 80-84

Millions

1980

Minority White

Population Age Distributions, 1980 and 2015

BABY BOOMERSages 16-34

Source: U.S. Decennial Census and Population Estimates

#Millennials

0 10 20

Age 0-4

Age 10-14

Age 20-24

Age 30-34

Age 40-44

Age 50-54

Age 60-64

Age 70-74

Age 80-84

Millions

2015

0 10 20

Age 0-4

Age 10-14

Age 20-24

Age 30-34

Age 40-44

Age 50-54

Age 60-64

Age 70-74

Age 80-84

Millions

1980

Minority White

Population Age Distributions, 1980 and 2015

BABY BOOMERSages 16-34

MILLENNIALSages 18-34

BABY BOOMERS

ages 51-69

Source: U.S. Decennial Census and Population Estimates

#Millennials

Global attributes of the millennial generation

25% 29%14%

Speak a language other than

English at homeFirst- or second-

generation American

Share of marriages that

are interracial

Source: American Community Survey and Current Population Survey

#Millennials

Generational differences: currently married by age 25-34

Source: Current Population Survey

70%

47%

70% 70%

59%

32%

61%55%

48%

23%

44%

51%

White Black Hispanic Asian

Baby Boomers

Gen-X

Millennials

#Millennials

27%

12%9%

42%

35%

18%

10%

51%

43%

23%17%

63%

White Black Hispanic Asian

Generational differences: college graduates at age 25-34

Source: Current Population Survey

Baby Boomers

Gen-X

Millennials

#Millennials

33%

Black

Homeownership by Race: Age 25-34

Homeowner

Not a homeowner

56%White

37%

Hispanic43%

Asian

Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates

#Millennials

2

Where are millennials living?2

3

4

Colorado

Springs, CO

14.7%

Birmingham, AL

-0.6%

Millennial Population Growth, 2010-2015

Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates

Greater than 10%

Less than 2%

Higher

Lower

#Millennials

Whites

Greatest millennial-gaining metros: 2010-2015

Dallas

Denver

Houston

San Francisco

Seattle

Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates

#Millennials

WhitesBlacks

Greatest millennial-gaining metros: 2010-2015

Dallas

Denver

Houston

San Francisco

Seattle

Atlanta

Dallas

Houston

New York

Washington D.C.

Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates

#Millennials

Hispanics

WhitesBlacks

Greatest millennial-gaining metros: 2010-2015

Dallas

Denver

Houston

San Francisco

Seattle

Houston

Los Angeles

Miami

Riverside

San Antonio

Atlanta

Dallas

Houston

New York

Washington D.C.

Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates

#Millennials

Hispanics

WhitesBlacks

Asians

Greatest millennial-gaining metros: 2010-2015

Dallas

Denver

Houston

San Francisco

Seattle

Houston

Los Angeles

Miami

Riverside

San Antonio

Atlanta

Dallas

Houston

New York

Washington D.C.

Los Angeles

Houston

New York

San Francisco

Seattle

Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates

#Millennials

Greater

than 50%

40% to 50%

20% to 40%

Less than 20%

Millennials: minority shares of state populations

Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates

#Millennials

71%

49%

43%

41%

32%

27%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Minneapolis-St. Paul

Chicago

Atlanta

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Millennial racial/ethnic profiles by metro area

Hispanic

2+ races

Asian

Black

White

Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates

#Millennials

72%

62%

52%

42%

11%

10%

14%

18%

4%

7%

10%

14%

13%

21%

25%

26%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Exurbs

Emerging Suburbs

Mature Suburbs

Urban Core

Millennial Racial Profiles of Urban-Suburban Areas

Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates

Hispanic

Asian or Other

Black

White

#Millennials

2

How do their socioeconomic characteristics differ?3

3

4

Boston, 58%

Bakersfield,

14%

Millennials, age 25-34: percent college graduates

Source: American Community Survey

Greater than 45%

Less than 24%

Higher

Lower

#Millennials

McAllen, 31%

San Jose,

7%

Millennials, age 25-34: percent in poverty

Source: American Community Survey

Greater than 22%

Less than 11%

Higher

Lower

#Millennials

How will they serve as a “bridge” across generations?4

68%56% 52%

12%

14%14%

7%

9%9%

13%21% 25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Pre-millennials Millennials Post-millennials

Cultural Generation Gap: white share differences across generations

Hispanic

Asian or Other

Black

White

Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates

#Millennials

75%

60%

48%

67%

54%

60%

37%

25%

40%

Oklahoma

Rhode Island

Nevada

New Mexico

Arizona

Percent WhiteUnder Age 18

Percent WhiteOver Age 35

States with the largest cultural generation gaps

Source: 2015 US Census Population Estimates

27%

23%

23%

22%

Cultural generation gap

21%

82%

#Millennials

Share of people who agree:

“Since 1950, American culture has mostly changed for the better”

55%51%

59%

43%39%

51%

Total White Minority

Age 18-34

Age 35 and Above

Source: Public Religion Research Institute

#Millennials

0 10 20

Age 0 - 4

Age 10 - 14

Age 20 - 24

Age 30 - 34

Age 40 - 44

Age 50 - 54

Age 60 - 64

Age 70 - 74

Age 80 - 84

Millions

2015

Aging of the Millennial Population

Source: American Community Survey

Minority White

#Millennials

0 10 20 30

Age 0 - 4

Age 10 - 14

Age 20 - 24

Age 30 - 34

Age 40 - 44

Age 50 - 54

Age 60 - 64

Age 70 - 74

Age 80 - 84

Millions

2025

0 10 20

Age 0 - 4

Age 10 - 14

Age 20 - 24

Age 30 - 34

Age 40 - 44

Age 50 - 54

Age 60 - 64

Age 70 - 74

Age 80 - 84

Millions

2015

Aging of the Millennial Population

Source: American Community Survey

Minority White

#Millennials

0 10 20 30

Age 0 - 4

Age 10 - 14

Age 20 - 24

Age 30 - 34

Age 40 - 44

Age 50 - 54

Age 60 - 64

Age 70 - 74

Age 80 - 84

Millions

2025

0 10 20 30

Age 0 - 4

Age 10 - 14

Age 20 - 24

Age 30 - 34

Age 40 - 44

Age 50 - 54

Age 60 - 64

Age 70 - 74

Age 80 - 84

Millions

2035

0 10 20

Age 0 - 4

Age 10 - 14

Age 20 - 24

Age 30 - 34

Age 40 - 44

Age 50 - 54

Age 60 - 64

Age 70 - 74

Age 80 - 84

Millions

2015

Aging of the Millennial Population

Source: American Community Survey

Minority White

#Millennials

Cultural generation gaps over time

Source: American Community Survey

68%56% 52%

32%44% 48%

2015

Pre-millennials Millennials

(Age 18-34)

Post-millennials

65%52% 46%

35%48% 54%

2035

Pre-millennials Millennials

(Age 38-54)

Post-millennials

Minority White

#Millennials

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

AtlantaLos Angeles Chicago Minneapolis-St. Paul

2025: Cultural generation gaps

Hispanic

Asian or Other

Black

White

Source: Author’s Projections

Pre Mil. Post Pre Mil. Post Pre Mil. Post Pre Mil. Post

#Millennials

The Millennial Generation:A Demographic Bridge to America’s

Diverse Future

WILLIAM H. FREYBrookings Institution

Washington, DCJanuary 30, 2018