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16 November 2016, Slide 1 The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges” Jonathan L. Ravelas ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------DISCLAIMER--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---This document is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinion expressed are subject to change without prior notice. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any addressee. This document is for the information of the addressees only and is not to be taken on substitution for the exercise of judgment by the addressees. BDO Unibank, Inc. accepts no liability whatsoever for and direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. This document is not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. In the course of our regular business, we may have a position in the securities mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of them from time to time in the open market. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Page 1: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 1

The Philippines: Moving Forward”Prospects and Challenges”

Jonathan L. Ravelas

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------DISCLAIMER------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This document is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy, completeness orcorrectness. Opinion expressed are subject to change without prior notice. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to specificinvestment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any addressee. This document is for the information of the addressees only and is not to be takenon substitution for the exercise of judgment by the addressees. BDO Unibank, Inc. accepts no liability whatsoever for and direct or consequential loss arising from anyuse of this publication. This document is not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. In the course of our regular business, we mayhave a position in the securities mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of them from time to time in the open market.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Page 2: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 2

Ravelas has been a leading advocate in creating and running a wide

range of educational programs for private and institutional investors,

ranging from the basics of financial markets to advanced trading

strategies, having worked in the financial markets for almost 20 years.

He has delivered numerous lectures in the field of forecasting here

and abroad and regularly provides economic commentaries in the

Asian Wall Street Journal and in some of the country’s major dailies.

He is also a regular commentator on economic and financial marketissues on ANC, Bloomberg and BBC.

Page 3: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 3

Presentation Outline

1.) Global Economy

2.) Philippine Economy

3.) Financial Market Outlook

4.) Risks

5.) Summary

Page 4: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 4

• US interest rates outlook after Sept 21 FOMCSlower and shallower: one last year, one this year, still data-dependent?Fed GDP growth projections lowered to 2% from 1.8%

• US long bond yieldBottom in place: 10-yr yld up 47bp from Brexit low? Continued recovery, or still lower for longer?

• Philippine rates outlookRising rates in line with US? Or faster/higher trajectory as growth accelerates, liquidity tightens on higher loan growth, gov’t spending/borrowings?

• PCOMP, PHP pullbacksOutright buy, buy on dips, or sell into strength? PCOMP down 10.51% from July high, still at Asian-high and near-historical highs at 17.53X 2017 P/E versus India at 15.31X, Indonesia at 114.82X, US S&P at 16.02X

• Geopolitics: known unknownsClinton maintains a narrow lead in recent polls.

Issues confronting us at present

Page 5: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 5

The Global Economy

Page 6: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 6

World economyGrowth improving but challenges remain.

US A

• Economy shows resilience amid foreign headwinds.

• C onsumer spending becomes dominant engine of growth

J ob growth will keep Fed on track for another rate hike

• Inflation to follow full employment and above trend growth.

Euro Zone

• Economic slack persists with uneven growth unemployment

• More easing by EC B

• UK vote to leave EU; could reach brink of recession; BOE will need a strong response to keep growth positive

C hina

• Economy’s slowing path with risks of a sharper slowdown

• More stimulus may keep growth at 6.50% - 6.70%

• Policy reforms will be key to sustaining growth

Page 7: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 7

World economyGrowth targets firming up despite challenges.

Source : Bloomberg LP, BDO as of 25 October 2016

Country 2013A 2014A 2015A Last

(2Q2016)

2016F 2017F 2018F

World 3.30 3.40 3.10 N/A 2.90 3.10 3.30

USA 1.70 2.40 2.60 1.20 1.50 2.20 2.1

Euro Zone -0.30 1.10 2.0 1.60 1.50 1.30 1.50

Japan 1.40 0.0 0.60 0.70 0.50 0.70 0.60

BRICS 5.70 5.30 4.80 5.10 4.70 5.60 5.70

China 7.70 7.30 6.90 6.70 6.50 6.30 6.20

Asia Ex- JP 6.30 6.30 6.00 6.00 5.60 5.80 5.80

Indonesia 5.60 5.00 4.80 5.20 5.00 5.40 5.50

Philippines 7.10 6.20 5.90 7.00 6.70 6.30 6.50

Thailand 2.80 0.80 2.80 3.50 3.10 3.30 3.40

Page 8: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 8

Comparative Growth ratesPH: Leading the pack

Source: Bloomberg, BDO, ChartPoints

2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16F 4Q16F

Indonesia 4.7 4.7 5.0 4.9 5.2 5.1 5.1

Philippines 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.8 7.0 6.3 6.5

Malaysia 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.2

Thailand 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.3

Singapore 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.6

Asia-

Pacific

4.3 5.1 4.4 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.8

Page 9: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 9

2015 per capital GDP Comparison: Implied catch-up growth by PH to be at par with its peers.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia

Implied C atch Up G rowth Philippine G DP Per C apita

3,676115%

2,858 29%

278%

6,148

10,809

20

15

GD

P P

er C

ap

ita in

US

D$

Source: PSA, BDO, Bloomberg

Page 10: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 10

Philippines

Page 11: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 11

Signs of a BreakoutGrowth momentum rising!

4.9

5.8

7.0

6.2

3.3

6.46.8

1.1

5.8

7.0

1.9

6.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

G DP G rowth (Ave. in %) Inflation Rate (Ave. in %) Unemployment Rate (Ave%)

2004-2009 2010-2015 1Q2016 2Q2016

Source: Bloomberg LP, BDO, ChartPoints, PSA

Page 12: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 12

Looking backHigher economic growth and increased prosperity.

Key Economic Indicators 2009 2015 2016-2020 (Ave.)

Population (million) 91.00 101.40 109.80

GDP growth(%) 1.10 5.90 6.50

GDP per capita (USD$) 1,854 2,877 3632

Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.70 -0.90 -3.00

Unemployment (%) 7.50 6.30 5.50

Inflation (%) 4.30 1.50 3.50

Policy Rate (%) 4.00 4.00 4.00

Interest Rate (3M, EOP) 3.89 2.67 3.00

Interest Rate (5Y, EOP) 6.28 3.93 4.50

Exchange rate (against US$,EOP)

46.20 47.06 45.50

Current Account (% of GDP) 5.00 2.90 3.10

Source: Bloomberg LP, BDO, ChartPoints

Page 13: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 13

Philippine Economy on a roll

13

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16

GDP Growth 5.0% 5.9% 6.2% 6.5% 6.8% 7.0%

Demand Side Breakdown

Private consumption 6.1% 6.4% 6.1% 11.8% 7.0% 7.3%

Government spending 0.2% 2.4% 15.7% 15.8% 11.8% 13.5%

Gross fixed capital formation 8.8% 12.7% 13.9% 24.2% 28.2% 27.2%

Exports 10.6% 5.1% 9.8% 10.9% 7.3% 6.6%

Imports 12.2% 12.6% 16.2% 14.9% 19.0% 20.9%

Supply-side breakdown

Agriculture, Fishery, Forestry 1.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -4.4% -2.1%

Industry Sector 5.3% 6.1% 6.1% 6.5% 9.0% 6.9%

Mining & Quarrying -2.5% -8.6% 0.5% 14.0% 11.2% -9.7%

Manufacturing 6.0% 4.7% 5.8% 6.1% 8.0% 6.3%

Construction 3.9% 16.6% 7.8% 8.2% 12.4% 11.0%

Utilities 5.0% 4.6% 7.0% 5.2% 9.9% 9.8%

Services Sector 5.5% 6.7% 7.2% 7.8% 7.6% 8.4%

Source: Bloomberg, PSA

Page 14: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 14

Drivers for a sustainable growth

• CONSUMPTION – OFW, BPO and Tourism Receipts at18% of GDP

• GOVERNMENT – Infrastructure spending at 5% of GDP

• INFRASTRUCTURE- Focus on agriculture,manufacturing, SME, Foreign Direct Investments(lifting of foreign ownership restrictions); lessenbureaucratic red tape

• EXPORTS- hindered by lower global trade activity

• IMPORTS- More raw materials, capital equipmentimportation.

Page 15: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 15

A glimpse of the pastDuterte administration has more room for boldness

2.90

1.80

0.70

6.50

2.90

1.70

3.50

2.64

4.15

3.43

2.03

2.99

7.658.00

3.55

4.42

3.82

3.33

5.42

6.70

7.00

3.80

3.303.60 3.70

4.80

6.00

7.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Marcos Aquino I Ramos Estrada Arroyo Aquino II Duterte

Agriculture Manufacturing S ervices G DP

(CAGR in %)

Source: World Bank, Bloomberg, Businessworld

Page 16: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 16

Duterte’s 10-point program

Source: NEDA, Department of Finance

Continuity of macroeconomic policies

Tax reform

Land administration & reform

Human capital development

Infrastructure building Science, technology and arts

Ease of doing business, more investments/ FDI

Social safety nets, protection programs

Rural/agricultural development

Reproductive health & responsible parenthood

Page 17: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 17

Agriculture Tourism Manufacturing

Sectors to boost inclusive growth

Page 18: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 18

Fiscal Program OverviewImproving revenue and deficit profile

14.34

16.86

14.55 14.7 14.65

16.616.86 17.118.15 17.53

16.41

19.6

-2.49 -0.2 -3.55 -2.81 -1.76 -3

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Aquino I Ramos Estrada Arroyo Aquino II Duterte

Average Revenues Average Expenditure Average S urplus/ (Deficit)

Source: DBM

Note: Duterte (2017-2019 budget only)

Page 19: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 19

23.225.5

24.2 22.9 25.5 25.61

22.2

28

32.228.6

35.437.3

33.8

21.419.9

25.7

17.1

11.05

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Aquino I Ramos Estrada Arroyo Aquino II Duterte

Economic S ervices S ocial S ervices Debt Burden

Source: DBM

Budget DimensionsThe lowest debt service since 1986.

Page 20: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 20

National Government Fiscal Program

FISCAL PROGRAM

(in PhP Billion)2015

Actual2016

Actual2017

Projection2018

Projection2019

Projection

Revenues 2,109 2,257 2,481 2,990 3,326

% of GDP 15.8% 15.5% 15.6% 17.0% 17.2%

Disbursements 2,230 2,645 2,960 3,517 3,907

% of GDP 16.8% 18.7% 18.6% 20.0% 20.2%

Deficit 121.7 388.9 478.1 526.9 580.7

% of GDP -0.9% -2.7% -3.0 -3.0 -3.0

Source: DBM

Page 21: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 21

Comprehensive Tax Reform ProgramRevenue neutral to negative

Tax Incentives EstimatedTax Gains(PhP Bn)

Estimated Tax Loss (PhP Bn)

NetGain/(loss)

(PhP Bn)

Phase I (2017)Reduce Personal Income Tax (Jan.2017)Excise tax on gas, diesel, and other oil products“Sin Tax” on sugar sweetened drinksRemoving certain VAT exemptions

Phase II (2017)Reduce Corporate Income Tax (June 2017)Rationalization of fiscal perks

Phase III (2019)Lower Estate and Donor Tax (Jan. 2019)Rationalize valuation of properties

Phase IV (2019)Reduce Interest Income Tax (Jan. 2019)Consumption Tax Package

Luxury items 7.70Fatty foods 20.00Lottery and casinos 20.00Carbon tax 20.00Tobacco and Alcohol 58.20Mining 3.50

178.2018.10

163.40

33.80

43.50

129.40

(159.00)

(34.80)

(3.50)

(1.00)

200.70

(1.00)

40.00

128.40

TOTAL PhP566.40 (PhP198.30) PhP368.10

Page 22: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 22

The Outlook

Page 23: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 23

Long Term Forecasts

• ECONOMY- 7% average growth is achievable

• INFLATION – to normalize towards the 3.0% - 4.0%

• INTEREST RATES – to rise by 25-50 bps yearly

• FOREX RATE- to range between 45.00 – 50.00 levels

• STOCK MARKET – PSEi could rise to 14,000 levels(P/E 20x 2022)

Page 24: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 24

Macroeconomic ForecastStable business environment. Business as usual.

Source: Bloomberg LP, BDO, ChartPoints

2015A Last 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

GDP (%) 5.80 7.00%(2Q16)

6.70 6.50 6.75 6.75

CPI (%) 1.52 2.30(Sept)

1.70 2.90 3.30 3.40

Interest RatesBSP (O/N)3M PDST- R25Y PDST- R2

4.002.667

3.9250

3.001.55183.9393

3.002.043.04

3.50 3.053.63

4.003.524.19

4.003.654.50

FX (USD/PhP) 47.02 48.475 47.70 48.00 47.50 46.25

Stock Market (PSEi)

6952.08 7445.14 7,800 8,500 9,000 10,000

Page 25: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 25

Monetary PolicyRemains appropriate amid stable inflation

Source: Bloomberg LP and ChartPoints

Page 26: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 26

Domestic Interest Rates.

Rate hikes measured; no debt problems despite plentiful liquidity

Source: Bloomberg LP and ChartPoints

Page 27: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 27

Technical View: USD/PhP (Long Term)Still highlights strong currency in the long-term.

Source: Bloomberg LP, BDO, ChartPoints

2nd Support 1st Support Last 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance

47.00 48.00 48.58 49.50 50.00

Page 28: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 28

Tourist Receipts, BPO Revenues, and OFW Remittances

2.30 2.35 3.30 3.63 2.64 2.68 3.09 3.61 4.75 5.07 6.19 6.511.30 2.002.91

4.37 6.328.30

10.1012.07

13.0015.60

18.9022.00

8.5510.69

12.76

14.4516.43

17.35

18.76

20.12

21.39

22.98

24.63

25.61

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Annual Revenues (in USD Billions)

Tourist Receipts BPO Revenues OFW Remittances

Page 29: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 29

Stock Market (PSEi) Only a break below the 7000 will change our 7800 yearend view.

Source: Bloomberg LP and ChartPoints

2nd Support 1st Support Last 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance

7000.00 7350.00 7445.14 7800.00 7800.00

Page 30: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 30

Market ValuationsPH: Valuations look pricey versus historical levels

Source: Bloomberg, BDO, ChartPoints

YTD 2015 2016F 2017F 52 week 52 week

% P/E P/E P/E high low

Indonesia 5419.07 17.99 26.66 17.82 14.82 5,482.84 4,330.76

Philippines 7273.95 4.63 21.81 18.43 17.53 8,118.44 6,084.28

Malaysia 1657.75 -2.05 18.23 16.65 15.33 1,729.13 1600.92

Thailand 1502.27 16.63 19.98 15.55 13.93 1,558.32 1,220.96

Singapore 2801.3 -2.82 12.45 13.51 12.86 3,025.76 2,528.44

India 27458.99 5.14 20.02 18.27 15.31 29077.28 22494.61

Average 19.86 16.71 14.96

Last

Page 31: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 31

=

A Tale of two economiesLook at the forest, not the trees

Page 32: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 32

The Business Picture

Retail Construction/real estate

Increasing number of

foreign brands enter the PH

market.

Strong demand for office and retail space.

Food

Increase in jobs. BPOs/OFW spending

Retail Construction/real estate

Increasing number of

foreign brands enter the PH

market.

Strong demand for office and retail space.

Food

Increase in jobs. BPOs/OFW spending

The business pictureSectors to benefit from the growth momentum.

Page 33: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 33

Summary

• PH growth still far from achieving itsgrowth potential.

• Room for improvements in fiscalspending and FDIs.

• Stable macroeconomic environment

• Environmental risks are high due toClimate change

Page 34: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 34

Risks

Domestic Risks•Words matter: If negative sentimentbecomes overwhelming it may prove to beself-fulfilling

• Policy U turns(particularly if it involves economic policies)

Contagion Risks

• Growth risks remain

• Geopolitical noise persists

• Cross-borders spills remain

Page 35: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 35

Likely policy changes if Hillary Clinton takes the helm

• General consensus is for Hillary winA Trump win likely to create significant disruption for various financial markets

• A divided houseSlim Democrat majority in Senate. Republican majority (but diminished) in House.

• One potential impact for Philippines Hillary campaign platform for taking back tax breaks for companies that move US jobs overseas, clawback of tax credits for several years, aimed to discourage US companies from outsourcing jobs and operations to other countries

• Infra spendingUS$250bn boost to infra spending over 5 yrsNote Phil government looking at P8 trillion total outlays or US$167bn over 6 yrs

• Tax reformsHigher tax rates on high-income earnersOne-time tax on foreign earnings kept offshoreTaxation of foreign sourced earnings kept offshoreAll these would tend to repatriate offshore cash from foreign earnings back to US, to fund capex, infra spending

35

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16 November 2016, Slide 36

What now?

• Appreciate the Fundamentals…

• Know the risks ahead…

• Keep investing but be nimble

• Spend More

• Pray …Harder

Page 37: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 37

Reform agenda in AsiaWe’ve seen this playbook play well elsewhere in Asia.

Philippines China Thailand India

1. Continuity and beyond, reduce tax evasion, smuggling, corruption

Pres. Xi anti-corruption drive War on drugs started byThaksin in 2003, similarissues with extrajudicialkillings

Not particularlynoteworthy

2. Tax reformComprehensive Tax Reform Package

Not particularly noteworthy Not particularly noteworthy Recently enacted movefrom local to nationwide/unified system

3. Infrastructure build-out Investments >50% of GDP for years Ports, road, airports build-out key to take off ofmanufacturing, FDI, tourism

Increasing focus over thepast 10 years

4. More foreign & local direct investments

China as manufacturing workshop ofthe world

Japan FDI in particular,manufacturing winsincluding automotiveindustry

PM Modi “Make it India”drive offset however bybarriers to FDI

5. Pursue agriculture development and tourism

Core part of rural reforms, togetherwith urbanization of rural areas.Infrastructure build-ups/ access toraw materials and markets.

Value added agriculturalexports and tourism.

Limited progress,agricultural sector/monsoons as traditionalsource of macro volatility

6. Land reform Establishment of farmer self-ownedcooperatives in 1980s

Limited progress Limited progress

7. Strengthen education/ skills

Among the top students in math andscience aptitude tests

Limited progress World class IIT and IIMgraduate schools

8. Promote science & tech, creative arts

Cutting edge technology advances Limited progress IT strengths, BPO success

9. Expand/ improveconditional cash transfer

Significant focus of late, includinghukou reforms, pilot pensionschemes, health care coverage

Universal health carecoverage

Limited progress

10. Responsible parent/ reproductive health

One child/ urban household policy The oldest/ fastest ageingcountry in ASEAN

Limited progress

Source: BDO, IMF, World Bank

Page 38: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 38

2015 per capital GDP Comparison: Implied catch-up growth by PH to be at par with its peers.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia

Implied C atch Up G rowth Philippine G DP Per C apita

3,676115%

2,612 29%

278%

6,148

10,809

20

15

GD

P P

er C

ap

ita in

US

D$

Source: PSA, BDO, Bloomberg

Page 39: The Philippines: Moving Forward - PASIA · The Philippines: Moving Forward ”Prospects and Challenges ... higher loan growth, gov’tspending/borrowings?

16 November 2016, Slide 39

The Thailand experienceIts past accomplishments holds key to PH future.

In 1994, Thailand per capita income was US$2,612That’s PH per capita income as of 2015

Hard Infrastructure building roads, airports, bridges, ports, irrigation

Infrastructure as enabler for success Key areas: Agriculture, Tourism, Manufacturing

Attracting FDI Japanese wave of investments & manufacturing including cars/trucks hub

Tourism Thai hospitality & culture, Healthcare and medical tourism

Agriculture products and exportsGrown in Thailand (Shrimp farming, tropical fruits, etc.)

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Summary

• Global growth is improving butchallenges remain.

• Philippines is in better shape toface the difficulties that lie aheadbut is not immune to global risk.

• Present volatility creatingopportunities.

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41

Chorus from the Greek Play Antigone

"Be ready when the claws come out."

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16 November 2016, Slide 42

Q & A

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16 November 2016, Slide 43

Thank you for your time!

Follow me on Twitter @ravelasj

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Forecasts

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Interest Rates (Policy Rate)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

DE

U.S.A. 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.25

Euro 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00

Japan 0.10 0.10 0.0 -0.10 -0.10

ASIA

China 6.00 5.60 4.35 4.27 4.15

India 7.75 8.00 6.75 6.20 6.05

Philippines 3.50 4.00 4.00 3.00 3.25

Indonesia 7.50 7.75 7.50 6.15 6.10

Malaysia 2.99 3.23 3.05 2.85 2.85

Thailand 2.25 2.00 1.50 1.45 1.50

Korea 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.20 1.05

Source: BDO, ChartPoints and Bloomberg

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Interest Rates (3-Month Rate)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

DE

U.S.A. 0.25 0.26 0.61 0.95 1.40

Euro 0.29 0.08 -0.13 -0.31 -0.29

Japan 0.15 0.11 0.08 -0.03 -0.06

ASIA

China 4.14 3.66 2.18

India 9.06 8.65 7.80

Philippines 0.49 2.54 2.27

Indonesia 7.84 7.17 8.86 6.16 5.61

Malaysia 3.32 3.86 3.84 3.15 3.31

Thailand 2.40 2.18 1.63 1.40 1.93

Korea 2.66 2.14 1.66

Singapore 0.40 0.46 1.19 1.03 1.24

Source: BDO, ChartPoints and Bloomberg

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FOREX Forecast

Spot 2015 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 2017 2018 2019 2020

EUR/USD 1.08 1.08 1.10 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.15 1.16 1.19

USD/JPY 104 120 103 103 104 105 105 110 108 114

GBP/USD 1.21 1.47 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.27 1.28 1.32 1.34 1.49

USD/CHF 0.99 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.98

AUD/USD 0.76 0.72 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.75

USD/CNY 6.77 6.49 6.75 6.78 6.80 6.84 6.85 6.84 6.98 6.54

USD/INR 66.82 66.15 67.50 67.50 67.75 67.63 67.50 66.50 68.50 68.50

USD/IDR 13003 13788 13125 13188 13250 13300 13300 13125 13319 13425

USD/MYR 4.15 4.29 4.10 4.10 4.13 4.19 4.20 3.90 3.63 3.50

USD/PhP 48.34 47.06 47.70 48.00 48.10 48.40 48.40 46.00 45.50 46.00

USD/SGD 1.38 1.41 1.38 1.38 1.39 1.40 1.38 1.36 1.33 1.35

USD/KRW 1131 1172 1135 1145 1155 1165 1150 1100 1100 1100

USD/THB 34.93 36.08 35.00 35.00 35.30 35.40 36.00 34.50 32.70 32.50

Source: BDO, ChartPoints and Bloomberg

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Commodities Forecast

Spot 2015 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 2017 2018 2019 2020

METALS

GOLD 1275 1061 1266 1273 1278 1283 1280 1296 1309 1320

SILVER 17.81 13.84 17.53 17.61 17.70 17.79 17.75 18.04 18.31 18.62

NICKEL 10189 8780 10015 9982 10027 10062 10042 10177 10273 10353

STEEL 497.0 391.0 536.3 502.5 512.5 508.5 516.5 518.0 500.0 559.9

ENERGY

WTI 49.37 37.04 51.02 52.68 53.71 54.24 53.82 55.41 56.28 57.03

Brent 50.25 37.28 52.65 54.44 55.43 55.99 55.58 57.58 59.01 60.16

Dubai 47.81 32.13

AGRI

Corn 350.2 358.7 353.1 363.6 372.2 381.8 377.0 404.5 417.5 394.5

Wheat 405 470 416.6 438.2 456.9 477.8 467.1 515.6 526.0 492.0

Sugar 22.93 15.24 22.8 22.4 21.5 20.8 21.3 19.2 18.0 19.0

Soybeans 996.2 871.2 983.3 999.2 1008 1001 998.7 981.2 968.5 1087

Palm Oil 2760 2398 2728 2721 2715 2700 2710 2712

Source: BDO, ChartPoints and Bloomberg

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Jonathan “Jonas” L. Ravelasis First Vice President and Chief Market Strategist of BDO Unibank

He joined the Bank’s Treasury Group in 2002 to provide analysis onfinancial markets and macroeconomic developments in local andforeign economies. He held the same position at Equitable PCI Bank’sTreasury Department from 1998 to 2002. His prior experienceincludes working as strategist, analyst, equities dealer and portfoliomanager in both money management and institutional equitybrokerage settings with DBS Securities (Manila) and ACE Securities(Manila).

Ravelas has been a leading advocate in creating and running a widerange of educational programs for private and institutional investors,ranging from the basics of investing to advanced trading strategies,having worked in the financial markets for almost 20 years.

He has delivered numerous lectures in the field of forecasting hereand abroad and regularly provides economic commentaries in theAsian Wall Street Journal and in some of the country’s major dailies.

He is also a regular commentator on economic and financial marketissues on ANC, Bloomberg, and CNN Philippines.

Recently, FocusEconomics ranked him as the #1 Current Accountforecaster for the Philippines for 2015.

Ravelas holds a bachelor's degree in Management of FinancialInstitutions from the De La Salle University (Manila).

Age:44 / Success Mantra: Fortune favors the brave.