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The REAL Economy and American Working Families Young Elected Officials Network, Policy Council Retreat Washington, DC June 23, 2012. www.earncentral.org. Introduction Economic Context – where we’ve been, where we are, and where we’re headed (and it’s not very pretty). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The REAL Economy and American Working Families
Young Elected Officials Network, Policy Council RetreatWashington, DC
June 23, 2012
www.earncentral.org
Introduction • Economic Context – where we’ve been, where we are,
and where we’re headed (and it’s not very pretty).• National overview helpful, but obscures a lot of what’s
going on
Economic Context -- Two Time-Frames
• Immediate short-term consequences and characteristics of recession/very weak recovery
• Longer-term challenges that need to be addressed NOW– Decline of manufacturing– Erosion of critical infrastructure (eg, roads,
bridges, schools, human capital (early care, K-16)
RECESSION AND RECOVERY
Underemployment includes three classifications of persons: unemployed workers who are actively looking for work, involuntarily part-time workers who want full-time work but have had to settle for part-time hours, and marginally attached workers who want and are available for a job, but are not actively looking
Source: EPI Analysis of BLS CPS data, 2010, 2011All Black Hispanic Asian White
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
10.6%
15.8%
13.1%
8.5% 8.3%
9.8%
15.4%
12.3%
7.6% 7.6%
Percent of Children with at Least One Unemployed Parentby Race/Ethnicity (average month, 2010 & 2011)
2010
2011
Distress Sales Focused in Three Regions…Count of distress sales as % of total sales, Nov 2010 to Nov 2011
Source: Moody’s Analytics and CoreLogic: repeat-purchase sales, monthly average, Nov 2010 to Nov 2011
0% to 19%20% to 32%33% to 66%
U.S.=35.3%
The West, Texas and Florida Lead Job Growth
HoustonMemphis
MiamiFt. Worth
AustinTampaDallas
San JoseSan Francisco
SeattleSanta AnaPhonenix
WarrenCincinnatiPittsburgh
0 1 2 3 4
Fastest job growth among 50 largest metro areas.
Sources: BLS, Moody’s Analytics, Note: Colors represent census regions
Payroll employment, Dec 2011, % change yr ago, revised 3/14/12
1717
Income Growth Favors West and SouthwestWage and salary income growth, % change yr ago, 2011Q3
Sources: BEA, Moody’s Analytics
>3.3
<1.81.8 to 3.3
U.S.=2.6%
Employment Outlook for 2012Total employment, 2012Q4, % change yr ago
U.S.=0.8%Less than 0.4%
1.2% and above
0.4% to 1.1%
Sources: US Census Bureau, Moody’s Analytics
LONGER TERM CHALLENGES
Cause…. …and effect
Chart from "Trends in Transport Infrastructure Investment 1995-2009," by the International Transport Forum(WEC = Western European Countries, CEEC = Central and Eastern European Countries)
POLICY SOLUTIONS
4 Policies to Improve Well-Being of Workers and Families
• Pursue policies to create Jobs Now• Raise the minimum wage at the state or
national levels [Eg, Senator Harkin’s Rebuild America Act, introduced this week, raises federal minimum wage to $9.80 over three years, and indexes to inflation]
• Adopt Paid Sick Days legislation• Adopt State Level Earned Income Tax Credit
(EITC)
Jobs Now (with eye on tomorrow)• “First, Do No Harm” – don’t lay off public
sector workers!• Invest in infrastructure – roads, bridges,
schools (a) new (if needed), b) repairs, c) make them green [abundant supply of labor, historically low bond rates, need is great, payoff includes kick-starting your economy]
Cities and States with Active Paid Sick Days Campaigns/Bills Introduced or Successfully Adopted
Parting Thoughts• Jobs/Jobs/Jobs: The best way to defend workers and
help families is to get the economy on track • “First, Do No Harm” -- Do NOT shred the safety net
that’s critical to child well-being, eg:– Unemployment Insurance– LIHEAP (home heating)– SNAP (aka “Food Stamps”)
• Reach High – Expand State EITC, Increase Minimum Wage, Adopt Paid Sick Days Legislation
www.taxcreditsforworkingfamilies.org
www.raisetheminimumwage.org
http://paidsickdays.nationalpartnership.org
Resources
