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This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. © 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. George Ambler @cioleader The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014

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Page 1: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or otherauthorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied,distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.© 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

George Ambler@cioleader

The Top 10 Strategic TechnologyTrends for 2014

Page 2: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

Key Issues

• What technology trends will have the biggestpotential for significant enterprise impact over thenext three years?

• Which technologies or trends will drive significantchange or disruption?

• Are there changes or tipping points occurring nowor over the next three years that make thetechnology newly strategic or applicable to awider market?

1

Page 3: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

Strategic Technology Trends

Mobile Device Diversity & Mgt.Mobile Apps & ApplicationsThe Internet of EverythingHybrid Cloud & IT as Service BrokerCloud/Client ArchitectureThe Era of Personal CloudSoftware Defined AnythingWeb Scale IT.Smart Machines3-D Printing

Top 10 Strategic TechnologyTrends for 2014:

Future Disruption

Derivative Impact

Converging Forces

Page 4: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

No Single Vendor Will DominateThere's Space for Three Leaders

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Greater China

Emerging APAC

Mature APAC

North America

Western Europe

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Greater China

Emerging APAC

Mature APAC

North America

Western Europe

Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System, Worldwide, 2Q13

Han

dset

sTa

blet

s

Feature phoneOther OSBlackBerryWindowsiOSAndroid

Page 5: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

Mobile Device Diversity• Many form factors, screen sizes, interaction styles, platforms, architectures• > 100 mobile application development tools, > 60 MDM tools• Management and security challenges driven by BYOD & BYOA• New working practices, opportunities, organizational structures, skills• Tactics are the new strategy

Pocketable Portable Shared AreasGrab &Go

Desk

Touch, Voice, ...Keyboard, Mouse

Gesture

Glanceable

Page 6: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

The Rise of Enterprise Mobile Platforms

• Enterprise mobile platforms are key strategicsolutions encompassing mobile applications,integration, management, and security

Serv

ices

LOB Apps

Integration

Common Apps

Management

App Development

Secu

rity

Enterprise Mobile Platform

• Cloud-delivered• Social-enabled• Multichannel• Device-aware• Device-agnostic

Removes complexity from mobile decisionsProtects enterprise from mobile device warsDrives reuse and faster mobile adoption

Device vendors likeApple and Google willnot be the most strategicmobile platform in theworkplace

Page 7: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

Broad solution portfolios putthese discrete markets atrisk:• Mobile Device Management (MDM)• Legacy Mobile Enterprise Application

Platforms (MEAP)• Security Containers• Enterprise File Sync & Share• Cloud Mobile Back-end Services

Enterprise Mobile Platforms

Emerging leaders

… with more joining soon.

Invest tactically in best-of-breed solutions with<2 years payback. Select strategic vendors by 2016.

Page 8: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

• Richer UI models• Voice, Video & more

• “Apps” grow as“Applications” shrink.

• Microsoft, Google andApple will battle forleadership

• “Modern” UI• Connected apps• Contextual, multi-device

• Multichannel applicationintegration and interactions:

• Store, Sync and Share• Development challenges

- New design skills- Responsive Design- Native apps vs. HTML5

Mobile Apps and Applications

More InputsMore Places

More Actions

Page 9: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

Internet of Things Hype Cycle, 2013

InnovationTrigger

Peak ofInflated

ExpectationsTrough of

Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau ofProductivity

time

expectations

Plateau will be reached in:less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years

obsoletebefore plateau

As of July 2013

Smart Dust

Operational Intelligence Platforms

802.11ahQuantified Self

Decisions and Recommendationsas a Service

Autonomous VehiclesData Science

IT/OT IntegrationSilicon Anode Batteries

Context Delivery Architecture

Big Data

Home Energy Management/Consumer Energy Management

Low-Cost Development BoardsSmart Fabrics

Wireless Power

Bluetooth 4.0Enterprise Information ArchitectureFacilities Energy ManagementRaspberry PiSmart AppliancesComplex-Event Processing

Home-Area Network

Broadband-Connected TelevisionsOperational Technology Security

Z-WaveTelematics

Machine-to-Machine Communication ServicesOperational Technology Platform Convergence

Mesh Networks: SensorAdvanced MeteringInfrastructure

EnterpriseManufacturing

IntelligenceVehicle-to-Infrastructure

Communications

IPv6ISA-95 Integration StandardsVehicle-to-Vehicle Communications

RFID for Logistics and Transportation6LoWPAN

Public Telematics and ITS802.15.4/ZigBee

RF MCU

Consumer Telematics

Wireless HealthcareAsset Management

Commercial TelematicsDASH7Internet of Things

Smart City Framework, ChinaSmart Transportation

Mobile Health Monitoring

• Manage• Monetize• Operate• Extend

From: Hype Cycle for the Internet of Things, 2013, 31 July 2013 (G00252763)

Usage Models

Page 10: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

Action Plan for the Internet of Everything1. Imagine digitizing your most

important products, servicesand assets

2. Walk through each of the fourmodels:

- Can I manage it better andimprove productivity?

- Can I charge for it?- Can I operate it remotely?- Can I extend new services

or content to it?3. Do the same with your top

three core processes.4. Look for Interconnection

between things, people, placesand information

Internet ofPeople

Internet ofInformation

Internet ofPlaces

Internet ofThings

Page 11: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

Hybrid Cloud – Combining Services

DeploymentComposition

StaticComposition

DynamicComposition

EventComposition

Composed each timethe service is

provisioned/used

Designed so thatservices are alwaysused together in the

same manner

Recomposeddynamically during

runtime

Recomposed basedon a planned or one-

time event

• Complementary capabilities/data.• Most common current approach

• Based on policies, capacityavailability, current pricing.

• Viable with strict parameters andplanning

• Based on policy and dynamically-changing capacity or capabilityneeds, pricing

• Bleeding edge approach but evolving

• Based on expected capacity orcapability needs (e.g., disasterrecovery)

• Emerging approach

Page 12: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

Hybrid IT - IT As Advisor, Broker & Provider

ITCloud Services Broker

Enterprise App Store

PrivateCloud

Services

PublicCloud

ServicesTraditionalServices

PublicCloud

Services& Mobile

Apps

Hybrid ITThe Enterprise

Advisor• User Facing• Facilitate business

decisions• Front end mobile app

stores and cloud markets• Deliver enterprise mobile

apps and cloud services• Future of internal portals

and service catalogs• Social Elements

Broker• Service Facing• Emphasize IT role as

broker and integrator• CMP and/or CSB models

Provider• IaaS & PaaS Abstraction• App, Dev, Mgt & Sec. SW

Provider• Data Centers• Vertically Integrated

Page 13: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

Cloud/Client Architecture

12

• The cloud is the controlpoint and system of record

• Applications span multipleclient devices

• The Application is in thecloud … Apps exposecapabilities on the client.

• The experience flows towhere you are and whatyou are doing in context

• Mobile containers drive anew security approach

• Applications will usemultiple client endpointssimultaneously

DataLogic

UI Model

DataLogic

UI Model

Page 14: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

The Human Perspective –The Rise of the Personal Cloud

• Center of each user’s personaldigital ecosystem

• Unique collection of services foreach user

• Assembled and evolved by eachuser

• Glue connecting the devices andservices they choose to use daily

• Shift in the balance of power

13

Vendors and IT organizations mustalign to this next stage of

consumerization

GoogleGmail

iTunes XboxLive

Instagram

MicrosoftSkydrive

Amazon NetflixTwitter

Facebook

AppleiCloud Rdio

CorpSharepoint

Pro

Sync Me

See Me

Know Me

Be Me

Page 15: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

14

The Journey to Programmable Everything

Software DefinedNetworking

Software DefinedStorage

Software DefinedDataCenter

IaaS

Real TimeInfrastructure

Fabric BasedComputing

Open ComputeProject

OpenStack

VirtualDataCenters

IntegratedSystems

SoftwareDefined

Anything

Page 16: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

Web-Scale IT: A Result of the CloudProvider “Singularity”

Web-scale IT is a pattern of global class computingthat delivers the capabilities of large cloud services

providers to the enterprise.

You Too can “run with the big dogs”

Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/lesliehawthorn/5635451116

Page 17: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

API-basedManagement

Web-orientedArchitecture

CollaborativeAligned

Organization

Velocity-focused

Processes

IndustrialDesigned

InfrastructuresRisk

EmbracingCulture

Web-ScaleIT

Open

Source

NEXUSNEXUS

Web-Scale IT Implementation: Need toRethink the Entire IT Value Chain

Web-scale IT"powers" the

Nexus

What's In: Open Source, DIY,Resiliency, Services, DevOps,Sharing, Learning, Scale Out,New Age Vendors

What's Out: Proprietary,Turnkey, Complexity, GUIs,ITIL, Heroes, Rules, Scale Up,Old-School Vendors

Page 18: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

The Rise of Smart Machines

NetworkScale

(10^11 interconnected nodes)

NewHardware

(Cores, memory andinterconnects)

Algorithms(E.g., Deep learning, NLP,

meaning extraction andcontext awareness)

ContentExplosion(Big Data, IT/OT, IoT and

the Internet)

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18

Smart Machine Categories

• Movers- Autonomous vehicles

• Sages- Linguistically smart

Information-based helpers- personal assistants, smart

advisors

• Doers- Machine-focused helpers- Robots, Networks of

Industrial Machines

Page 20: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

3D Printing OpportunitiesWhy Enterprises Care• Rapid, iterative prototypes and

models; short-run manufacturing;new product opportunities

Why Technology Providers Care• 82% CAGR to $5.7b in 2017• A growing new ecosystemInhibitors• Overhyped use cases• Need to adapt business models• Technologies, materials, actual

build cost• Intellectual property rights,

copyrights 19

Stratasys / Solidscapeexample

3D SystemsZprinter example

Cross-section of bioprinted human liver tissue2013 Cool Vendor Organovo

Page 21: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

The Bottom Line• The Nexus of forces continues to drive change and create new

opportunities

• Mobile-centric trends and technologies increasingly define theclient environment and the core end-user app and experience.

• Cloud is becoming a mainstream computing style and deliveryoption with hybrid cloud, cloud brokerage and new delivery,management and security options accelerating adoption.

• Cloud and Mobile combine to drive new application architecturesand a new user experience called “personal cloud”

• Information & Social elements are deeply embedded into all ofthe strategic trends.

• The Nexus forces create demand for advanced programmableinfrastructure and services that can execute at web-scale andsupport new client/cloud app models and the personal cloud

Page 22: The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 - · PDF fileThe Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Key Issues ... Gartner, Forecast for Device Shipments by Operating System,

Recommended Gartner ResearchBYOD Doesn't Have to Be All or Nothing: Match Smartphone, Tablet andPC Rollouts to Organizational Readiness and Employee DemandLeslie Fiering (G00247169)

The Mobile Imperative: Mobile Application Strategies and ArchitecturesDavid Mitchell Smith (G00251010)

The Information of Things: Why Big Data Will Drive the Value in theInternet of Things Hung LeHong (G00249066)

Decision Point for Selecting a Mobile Application ArchitectureKirk Knoernschild and others (G00234823)

Cool Vendors in 3D Printing, 2013 Pete Basiliere, et al (G00250450)The Disruptive Era of Smart Machines Is Upon Us (G00257743)

The Internet of EverythingMark Raskino and Hung LeHong (G00234337)

Emerging Technology Analysis: OpenFlow and Software-DefinedNetworking for CSPsAkshay K. Sharma (G00233227)

For more information, stop by Experience Gartner Research Zone or e-mail us at [email protected].