THE FUTURE OF THE FLEXTHE FUTURE OF THE FLEX-FUEL VEHICLE IN THE U.S.

Diana Ginnebaugh, PhD CEEPostdoctoral Scholar

P t E Effi i C tPrecourt Energy Efficiency CenterStanford University

PEEC Transportation SeminarNovember 1, 2013

Flex-Fuel VehiclesFlex Fuel VehiclesPoliciesAir Pollution RegulationAir Pollution Regulation

E85Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)“Blend Wall”, E15Corn vs Cellulosic ethanolCorn vs Cellulosic ethanolOther challenges

l

FLEX-FUEL VEHICLESPolicies

25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock

20%

ck) S

tock

15%

Ligh

t Tru

c

10%

LDV

(Car

+

5%

% o

f Tot

al L

0%

%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Year

Data from EIA

25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock

20%

ck) S

tock

15%

Ligh

t Tru

c

10%

LDV

(Car

+

5%

% o

f Tot

al L

0%

%

Hybrids

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Year

Data from EIA

25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock

20%

ck) S

tock

15%

Ligh

t Tru

c

10%

LDV

(Car

+

AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE

5%

% o

f Tot

al L (1.2 mpg CAFE

credit)

0%

%

Hybrids

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Year

Data from EIA

FFV CAFE Calculation Examplep

gasoline: 24.1 mpg

FFV E85: 17.6 mpg

FFV CAFE Calculation Examplep

gasoline: 24.1 mpg

FFV E85: 17.6 mpg

E85 = 17.6 mpg / 0.15 = 117.3 mpg

FFV CAFE Calculation Examplep

gasoline: 24.1 mpg

FFV E85: 17.6 mpg

E85 = 17.6 mpg / 0.15 = 117.3 mpg

Assume 50/50 use of gasoline/E85:

CAFE: 1/(0.5/24.1 + 0.5/117.2) = 40 mpgCAFE: 1/(0.5/24.1 + 0.5/117.2) 40 mpg

25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock

20%

ck) S

tock

15%

Ligh

t Tru

c

10%

LDV

(Car

+

AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE

5%

% o

f Tot

al L (1.2 mpg CAFE

credit)

0%

%

Hybrids

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992

(federal fleets) Data from EIA

25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock

20%

ck) S

tock

15%

Ligh

t Tru

c

10%

LDV

(Car

+

AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE

5%

% o

f Tot

al L (1.2 mpg CAFE

credit) EPAct 2005(labels, fleets use alt fuel)

0%

%

)

Hybrids

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992

(federal fleets) Data from EIA

25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock

20%

ck) S

tock

15%

Ligh

t Tru

c

EISA 2007

10%

LDV

(Car

+

AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE

(1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014,

declining to 2019)

5%

% o

f Tot

al L (1.2 mpg CAFE

credit) EPAct 2005(labels, fleets use alt fuel)

2019)

0%

%

)

Hybrids

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992

(federal fleets) Data from EIA

25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock

20%

ck) S

tock AEO 2010

15%

Ligh

t Tru

c

EISA 2007

10%

LDV

(Car

+

AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE

(1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014,

declining to 2019)

5%

% o

f Tot

al L (1.2 mpg CAFE

credit) EPAct 2005(labels, fleets use alt fuel)

2019)

0%

%

)

Hybrids

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992

(federal fleets) Data from EIA

25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock

20%

ck) S

tock AEO 2010

AEO 2011

15%

Ligh

t Tru

c

EISA 2007

10%

LDV

(Car

+

AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE

(1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014,

declining to 2019)

5%

% o

f Tot

al L (1.2 mpg CAFE

credit) EPAct 2005(labels, fleets use alt fuel)

2019)

0%

%

)

Hybrids

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992

(federal fleets) Data from EIA

25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock

20%

ck) S

tock AEO 2010

AEO 2011

15%

Ligh

t Tru

c

EISA 2007

10%

LDV

(Car

+

AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE

(1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014,

declining to 2019)

5%

% o

f Tot

al L (1.2 mpg CAFE

credit) EPAct 2005(labels, fleets use alt fuel)

CAFE and EPA GHG credits (require alt

f l

2019)

0%

%

)

Hybrids

fuel use)

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992

(federal fleets) Data from EIA

CAFE and EPA GHG CreditsGHG credits (MY 2015 - )

100% gasoline OR actual usage of E85no cap

CAFE Credits (MY 2020 -)100% gasoline OR actual usage of E850.15 divisor to encourage dual fuel vehicle productionno cap

Why Emphasis on Actual Usage?Why Emphasis on Actual Usage?

2011:- 10 million flex-fuel vehicles- ~ 1 million of those used E85

Data from EIA

Annual Ethanol Consumption in the U Sthe U.S.

E85117 million gallons

*ethanol is listed as gasoline-equivalent gallons

<1%

Gasoline122 billion gallons

93%E10

7 billion93%Ethanol

7 billion gallons7%

9.6% Ethanol (by volume)

(2011 data, from EIA 2013)

FFV CAFE Calculation Examplep

gasoline: 24.1 mpg

FFV E85: 17.6 mpg

E85 = 17.6 mpg / 0.15 = 117.3 mpg

up to MY 2019 (50/50):

CAFE: 1/(0.5/24.1 + 0.5/117.2) = 40 mpgCAFE: 1/(0.5/24.1 + 0.5/117.2) 40 mpg

MY 2020 and beyond (actual usage): CAFE /( / / ) 6CAFE: 1/(0.9/24.1 + 0.1/117.2) = 26 mpg

25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock

20%

ck) S

tock AEO 2010

AEO 2011

15%

Ligh

t Tru

c

AEO 2012EISA 2007

10%

LDV

(Car

+

AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE

AEO 2012(1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014,

declining to 2019)

5%

% o

f Tot

al L (1.2 mpg CAFE

credit) EPAct 2005(labels, fleets use alt fuel)

CAFE and EPA GHG credits (require alt

f l

2019)

0%

%

)

Hybrids

fuel use)

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992

(federal fleets) Data from EIA

25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock

20%

ck) S

tock AEO 2010

AEO 2011

15%

Ligh

t Tru

c

AEO 2012EISA 2007

10%

LDV

(Car

+

AMFA 1988(1 2 mpg CAFE

AEO 2012

AEO 2013

(1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014,

declining to 2019)

5%

% o

f Tot

al L (1.2 mpg CAFE

credit) EPAct 2005(labels, fleets use alt fuel)

AEO 2013

CAFE and EPA GHG credits (require alt

f l

2019)

0%

%

)

Hybrids

fuel use)

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040YearEPAct 1992

(federal fleets) Data from EIA

h d h

FLEX-FUEL VEHICLESWho uses FFV CAFE credits? How much?

1800 Flex-Fuel Vehicle Sales

1400

1600

nds) Flex-Fuel Light Duty Trucks

1200

es (t

hous

an Flex-Fuel Cars

800

1000

ehic

le S

ale

400

600

lex-

Fuel

Ve

200

400F

0'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

Data from EIA

12 Flex-Fuel Vehicle Stock

10

ns)

8

ock

(mill

io

Flex-Fuel Light Duty Trucks

6

Vehi

cle

Sto Flex-Fuel Cars

4

Flex

-Fue

l V

2

0'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

Data from EIA

4us

Usage of AMFA credits for Domestic Passenger Cars

3

3.5

MFA

min

u

Chrysler

Daimler Chrysler

2.5

E w

ith

AM

E)

Ford

GM

Nissan

1.5

2

mpg

, CA

FCA

F ssa

Toyota

1

fere

nce

(m

0

0.5

6 8

Diff

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Model Year

Data from NHTSA

Fraction of CAFE standard, without AMFA (FFV), for Domestic Cars

1.4

1.6

Domestic Cars

1

1.2

4

6

0.8

1

Frac

tion

Chrysler Daimler Chrysler

0.4

0.6Chrysler Daimler Chrysler

Ford GM

Nissan Toyota

0

0.2

6 82000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Model Year

Data from NHTSA

Fraction of CAFE standard, with AMFA (FFV), for Domestic Cars

1.4

1.6

Domestic Cars

1

1.2

4

6

0.8

1

Frac

tion

Chrysler Daimler Chrysler

0.4

0.6 Chrysler Daimler Chrysler

Ford GM

Nissan Toyota

0

0.2

6 82000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Model Year

Data from NHTSA

8

9us

Usage of AMFA credits for Light Trucks

7

8

MFA

min

u

Chrysler

5

6

E w

ith

AM

E)

Daimler

Daimler Chrysler

Ford

3

4

mpg

, CA

FCA

F

GM

Nissan

2

3

fere

nce

(m Toyota

0

1

6 8

Diff

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Model Year

Data from NHTSA

Fraction of CAFE standard, without AMFA (FFV), for Light Trucks

1.2

Light Trucks

0.8

1

Chrysler

0.6

Frac

tion

Daimler

Daimler Chrysler

Ford

0 2

0.4Ford

GM

Nissan

0

0.2

6 8

Toyota

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Model Year

Data from NHTSA

Fraction of CAFE standard, with AMFA (FFV), for Light Trucks

1.2

Light Trucks

0.8

1

Chrysler

0.6

Frac

tion

Daimler

Daimler Chrysler

Ford

0 2

0.4Ford

GM

Nissan

0

0.2

6 8

Toyota

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Model Year

Data from NHTSA

d d

FLEX-FUEL VEHICLESEmission Standards

Air Pollution ScoresAir Pollution Scores

Score US EPA Tier 2 CARB LEV IIScore US EPA Tier 2 CARB LEV II10 Bin 1 ZEV9 xx PZEV98 Bin 2 SULEV II7 Bin 3 xx6 Bin 4 ULEV II6 Bin 4 ULEV II5 Bin 5 LEV II4 Bin 6 LEV II opt 1p3 Bin 7 xx2 Bin 8 SULEV II lg trucks1 xx ULEV & LEV II lg trucks1 xx ULEV & LEV II lg trucks

Flex-Fuel Vehicle Emissions StandardsStandards

Tier 2 (2004-2009 phase in, use now)gasoline (E0) - FTP, cold CO, highway, SFTP (aggressive highway, A/C)85 h hE85 – FTP, highway

Bin 5 = fleet avg requirements

C ( h h )CARB LEV II (2004 – 2010 phase in, use thru 2019)FTP, SFTP, Evap (w E10?)f f ffleet average NMOG less than half federal allowed NMOG fleet average (bin 5)FTP at 50F NMOG and HCHOFTP at 50F, NMOG and HCHO

Vapor Pressure of Ethanol/Gasoline BlendsEthanol/Gasoline Blends

E5 E1080 E5 E10

60

70

(kP

a)

Gasoline (E0)

40

50

ress

ure

( Gasoline (E0)

E8520

30

Vap

or P

r

E85

0

10

V

(data from Furey 1985)

0 20 40 60 80 100% Ethanol in Fuel

Flex-Fuel Vehicle Emissions StandardsStandards

Tier 2 (2004-2009 phase in, use now)gasoline (E0) - FTP, cold CO, highway, SFTP (aggressive highway, A/C)85 h hE85 – FTP, highway

Bin 5 = fleet avg requirements

C ( h h )CARB LEV II (2004 – 2010 phase in, use thru 2019)FTP, SFTP, Evap (w E10?)f f ffleet average NMOG less than half federal allowed NMOG fleet average (bin 5)FTP at 50F NMOG and HCHOFTP at 50F, NMOG and HCHO

LEV II 50F Emission StandardsLEV II 50F Emission Standards“All LEV II light- and medium-duty LEVs, ULEV d SULEV t d t tULEVs, and SULEVs must demonstrate compliance with the following exhaust emission standards for NMOG andemission standards for NMOG and formaldehyde (HCHO) measured on the FTP (40 CFR Part 86 Subpart B) conducted at a(40 CFR, Part 86, Subpart B) conducted at a nominal test temperature of 50°F…”

OEM pick 3 PC/LDT and 3 MDV to meet standard for each MY (typically new models)standard for each MY (typically new models)

From CARB

California+California+

N J ONew JerseyConnecticut

h

OregonArizona

lWashingtonVermont

PennsylvaniaMaryland

New YorkMaine

Florida (2013)New Mexico (2016)

Rhode IslandMassachusetts

d d

DO THEY LIMIT FLEX-FUEL CARB Emission Standards

VEHICLE MODEL AVAILABILITY?

CA Standards Restrict FFV Sales?YesYes

Minnesota evaluation of California Vehicle Emission Standards in 2009

“reject because it will limit FFV availability in the state”in 2008 DOE presentation, GM expressed concern about California 50F tests for FFVsCalifornia 50F tests for FFVsSome models are not available in FFV in California+

some are only offered as FFV in Midwest, only as gasoline in C lif iCalifornia+

NoFlorida adopting California GHG rules (for 2013 or later)Florida adopting California GHG rules (for 2013 or later)

“although a select few FFV have difficulty certifying to SULEV, there are existing, well-known technologies to make FFV that can certify as SULEV (such as direct fuel injection)…”FFV that can certify as SULEV (such as direct fuel injection)…fleet average – manufacturers decide how to meet it

14% % Flex-Fuel Vehicle Models of Total ModelsOffered by Model Year

10%

12%

ed

8%

10%

dels

Off

ere

6%

FV o

f Mod

2%

4%

%FF Federal

California+

0%

2%

6 8

Data from EPA

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Model Year

6

180 Number of Flex-Fuel Vehicle Models Offered by Model Year

140

160

ffer

ed

100

120

Mod

els O

f

60

80

r of F

FV M

40

60

Num

be Federal

California+

0

20

6 82004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Model Year

Data from EPA

9

10 Flex-Fuel Vehicle Average Tier 2 Bins by Model Year

8

9

6

7

Bin

4

5

Teir

2

Federal

2

3 Federal

California+

0

1

6 8

Full phase-in Tier 2, LEV II

Data from EPA

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Model Year

States with CARB Standards

Rank StateNumber of FFV per

1000 vehicles18 OR 4.1719 WA 4.1529 NJ 3 3129 NJ 3.3132 RI 3.0836 CT 2.7039 CA 2.5642 NY 2.3843 PA 2.2544 ME 2.2148 MA 1 3048 MA 1.3050 VT 0.36

Data from OHPI, FHWA

States with CARB Standards

Rank StateNumber of FFV per

1000 vehicles18 OR 4.1719 WA 4.1529 NJ 3 3129 NJ 3.3132 RI 3.0836 CT 2.70Average Ranking 3639 CA 2.5642 NY 2.38

Average Ranking: 36

43 PA 2.2544 ME 2.2148 MA 1 3048 MA 1.3050 VT 0.36

Data from OHPI, FHWA

Midwest

Rank StateNumber of FFV

per 1000 vehicles3 SD 8 883 SD 8.886 ND 6.74

15 MO 5.0620 MN 3.9825 IL 3.8127 NE 3 4727 NE 3.4728 IA 3.3833 MI 2.8934 KS 2.8835 WI 2.7237 OH 2 6037 OH 2.6045 IN 2.19

Data from OHPI, FHWA

Midwest

Rank StateNumber of FFV

per 1000 vehicles3 SD 8 883 SD 8.886 ND 6.74

15 MO 5.0620 MN 3.9825 IL 3.8127 NE 3 47Average Ranking 2627 NE 3.4728 IA 3.3833 MI 2.89

Average Ranking: 26

34 KS 2.8835 WI 2.7237 OH 2 6037 OH 2.6045 IN 2.19

Data from OHPI, FHWA

d d

DO THEY LIMIT FLEX-FUEL Future Emission Standards

VEHICLE MODEL AVAILABILITY?

New Flex-Fuel Vehicle Emissions StandardsStandards

Tier 3 (2017-2025 phase-in)NMOG+NOxgasoline (E15?) – FTP, cold CO, highway, SFTP, PM, evapevapE85 – FTP, highway, SFTP from 68F to 86Fhighest bin = bin 5 from Tier 2g 5fleet avg bin = bin 2 from Tier 2 (2025)

CARB LEV III (2015-2020 phase-in, thru 2025)Tier 3 is based on LEV IIIzero evap standard w E10

f f fcold T test 50F, not on gasoline for flex-fuel

12 Tier 2 Bin Level for all Certified FFV Models

10

8

n Le

vel

Tier 3

4

6

Tier

2 B

in Tier 3 limit

2

4

FederalBubble sizes = number of models

Tier 3 avg

06 8

Federal

CaliforniaBubble sizes = number of models

offered in that bin2025

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Model Year

Data from EPA

Air PollutionEthanol (E85) and gasoline both increase air pollution

Ethanol (E85) may increase ozone significantly at cold temperatures

Al f l i (PAN)Also a concern for peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN), formaldehyde (HCHO), and acetaldehyde (CH3CHO)

h h ld h l b

FATE OF FLEX-FUEL VEHICLESWhat should the policy be?

Some thoughtsSome thoughts…wasted fuel due to inefficient vehicles

f l h l f dconsumer fuel cost vs vehicle cost for increased efficiencyenergy securityenergy security

not actually using E85th l b fi i l d t i t l?ethanol – beneficial or detrimental?

climate changei ll i (b il)air pollution (brazil)

energy securityf d f f lfood for fuel

Future of Flex-Fuel VehiclesFuture of Flex Fuel Vehicles

P li i i FFV b i h dPolicies encouraging FFV being phased outAir pollution standards may be a challengeOther ways to meet CAFE and GHG standards (EV, PHEV, HEV)

which also help meeting air pollution standards

Ethanol’s future is uncertain

d

HOW GHG CREDITS ARE GOING…An Aside

Fleet Average CO2 Emissions vs Standard for Passenger Cars (CA and US)

300

350

mi)

250

3

sion

s (g

/m

150

200

CO2

Emis

s

Standard Honda - CAMazda - CA Mitsubishi - CA

100

150

Ave

rage

C

VW - CA Chrysler - USFord - US GM - USNissan - US Subaru - US

50Flee

t A Suzuki - US Tesla - USToyota - US Volvo - US

02009 2010 2011

Data from EPA

Fleet Average CO2 Emissions vs Standard for Passenger Cars (Not California plus)

300

350

mi)

250

3

sion

s (g

/m

Standard

150

200

CO2

Emis

s

BMW

Honda

Mazda

100

150

Ave

rage

C Mazda

Mitsubishi

VW

50Flee

t A

02009 2010 2011

Data from EPA

Warm Temperature Case350 Gasoline (no fog)

300

m3 )

Gaso e ( o og)Gasoline (fog) E85 (no fog)E85 (fog)

200

250

+ a)

(μg/

E85 (fog)

150

200

one

(g +

100

Tota

l Oz

Fog

0

50T Fog

60

6:00 AM 6:00 PM 6:00 AM 6:00 PM 6:00 AMTime of Day

Cold Temperature Case350

G li ( f )

300

m3 )

Gasoline (no fog) Gasoline (fog)E85 (no fog)

200

250

+ a)

(μg/ E85 (fog)

150

200

one

(g +

100

Tota

l Oz

Fog

0

50T Fog

61

6:00 AM 6:00 PM 6:00 AM 6:00 PM 6:00 AMTime of Day