THORPEX/NCEP Update

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

Director, NCEP

September 1, 2004

“Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

2

Overview

• THORPEX Plans: Status

• NCEP Update – Focus on THORPEX

– Models

– Ensembles

– JCSDA

– Test Beds

• Summary

3

THORPEX Plans

• Science Plan

– Accepted by International Core Steering Committee in December ’03

– Led by Mel Shapiro and Alan Thorpe

• North American Plan

– Ongoing

– U.S. rep is David Parsons

– Interagency and international

• NOAA Plan

– First draft complete

– Led by Zoltan Toth; involves NOAA, NCAR, NASA, DoD/NRL, university participants, private sector

4

THORPEX Plans (cont.)

• THORPEX Implementation Plan (TIP)

– Ongoing international effort

– Led by David Rogers

– Involves Zoltan Toth, David Parsons and Mel Shapiro from U.S.

– Next meeting in Beijing (September ‘04)

– Big Items

• International ensemble forecast system

• Connection with AMMA (05-07)

• Connection with International Polar Year (07-08) field program

• Connection with GEOSS

NOAA SERVICE GOAL: ACCELERATE IMPROVEMENTS IN 3-14 DAY FORECASTSNOAA SERVICE GOAL: ACCELERATE IMPROVEMENTS IN 3-14 DAY FORECASTS

NOAA SCIENCE OBJECTIVE: REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESSNOAA SCIENCE OBJECTIVE: REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS

NEW NWP

Sub-systems developed in coordination

End-to-end forecast process

Strong feedback among componentsTwo-way interaction Error/uncertainty accounted for

TRADITIONAL NWP

Each discipline developed on its own

Disjoint steps in forecast process

Little or no feedback

One-way flow of information

Uncertainty in process ignored

INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE

SOCIOEC

SYSTEM

SOCIOEC

SYSTEM

CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIES

TIP – “OBSERVING SYSTEM” TIP – “DATA ASSIMILATION…”

TIP – “PREDICTABILITY &DYNAMICAL PROCESSES”

TIP – “SOCIAL & ECONOMICAPPLICATIONS”

TIP

NTSIP

DIRECT LINK BETWEEN NOAA THORPEX SCIENCE AND IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (NTSIP) AND

THORPEX INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE PLAN & THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (TIP)

THORPEX GLOBAL

ENSEMBLE(TIGGE)

SOCIOEC

SYSTEM

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NTEC MEMBERSJ. Hayes, D-OST/NWS

J. Kimpel, OAR

M. Colton, D-ORA/NESDIS

NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART - LINKS

CH

AIR

L. Ucce

llini, D

-NC

EP/N

WS

CH

AIR

Z. T

oth

, EM

C/N

CEP

NOAA SeniorManagement

NOAA LineOffices

NOAA Res. Labs:AL, CDC, ETL, FSL, ORA

US

WR

PC

o-C

hairs:

L. Ucce

llini &

T. K

illeen

ICS

C, IP

OC

hair: M

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nd

US R

ep.: L. U

ccellin

i

NA

SS

CC

o-C

hairs :

D. P

arso

ns &

P. G

auth

ier

ISS

CC

o-C

hairs:

M. S

hapiro

& A

. Thorp

e

NOAA Joint Inst.:JCSDA, CIMMS, SIP

NTSIC MEMBERS

Obs. Systems: J. Daniels (ORA), D. Emmitt (SWA), C. Velden (U. Wisc/SIMMS)

Data Assim: C. Bishop (NRL), L.-P. Riishojgaard (NASA/JCSDA)

Forecasting: J. Hansen (MIT), G. Kiladis (AL), S. Koch (FSL), J. Whitaker/T. Hamill (CDC)

SA Applications: R. Morss (NCAR), M. Ralph (ETL)

NWS-NCEP Operational ImplementationsF. Toepfer

International Forecasting ActivitiesNOAA THORPEX Administrative Assistant

STAFF: Z. Toth, NTSIC ChairM. Ralph & F. Toepfer, PPBES

Consistent with D. Rogers Memo of

7/9/2003, establishing NTEC & NTSIC

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NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES

Based on NOAA THORPEX Science & Implementation Plan

Coordinated with US/NA/International activities - TIP

• ONGOING APPLIED RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

• PEER REVIEWED RESEARCH GRANT PROGRAM *

• TRANSITION FROM RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS*

• REAL TIME TESTING (DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS)*

• INFRASTRUCTURE*

• MANAGEMENT

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NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIESPEER-REVIEWED RESEARCH GRANT PROGRAM:

Funded through NOAA THORPEX AOIndividual research studiesCollaborative projectsBalanced among 4 major research areas

CURRENT STATUS:12 grants distributed in competitive NOAA THORPEX 2004 AO process1) Observing System: 1 satellite & 1 in-situ study

2) Data Assimilation: Ensemble-based DA inter-comparison project(4 studies, CDC, UM, NCAR, NRL, CS)

Adaptive obs (1 study)3) Forecast System: Model errors & ensembles (2 studies)

Adaptive modeling procedures (1 study)4) Socioeconomic Applic.: 1 study (value of weather forecasts)Cross-cutting Activities: 1 study (OSSE method development)

PLAN: Initiate new THORPEX projects through NOAA Grants ProgramAreas with special need: Model errors in DA & ensemble forecasting

Socioeconomic forecast applications (including stat. post-processing)

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NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES

TRANSITION FROM RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS

Establish link with operations for each research study/projectProvide partner within NOAA for path to operations

Communicate operational requirementsProvide data/software access/supportOffer science consultation/adviceFacilitate collaboration/coordination among studies / within projectsPreferred form of work is through collaborative projects

Establish model errors & ensemble forecasting project?

Fund through set-aside fraction of research grant amount (20-33% of grants)

Currently only limited resources (100k for ATREC-related work in FY04)Need to expand in order to link with all research grant studies/projects

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NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES

REAL TIME TESTING (DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS)

GOAL: Test, demonstrate, and evaluate the new forecast process withintegrated, adaptive, and user controlled elements

TYPES OF PROJECTS (in hierarchical order):THORPEX Observing System Tests (TOST) Limited scope, focus on observing

systemTHORPEX Regional Campaigns (TREC) Test integrated forecast processTHORPEX Demonstration Projects As TREC but linked with other

programsTHORPEX Global Campaign Major demonstration near end of program

EXAMPLES:AMMA (2005-07) Life cycle of tropical storms

2006, additional observations; test impact of data on NWP skill (low/mod. cost)

IPY (2007-09) Atmosph. component of IPY, obs. system test, polar-extratropical links

06/07 test new obs platforms (lower cost); 07/08 full demo period, higher cost

Olympics (’08,etc) Emphasis on social/economic applicationsGEOSS (10yrs) Atmosph. component in GEOSS, prototype for integrated use of

data

NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIESINFRASTRUCTUREOperational Test Center (OTC; planned jointly with JCSDA)

Ensure access of researchers to operational forecast environmenta) Needed to support research grant program (research to operations transition)b) Leverage off JCSDA Test Facility (with broader focus, incl. forecasting/applications beyond DA)

Jointly funded with JCSDA - Basic funding plus contributions from research grants

c) Provide computer facilities (on backup computer?), operatnl software, & technical supportd) Accessible through THORPEX & other peer reviewed grant programs

THORPEX Global Ensemble Prediction System (TIGGE or TGEPS)Expand from successful implementation of NAEFS to include UK Metoffice for creation of multinational component of future TGEPSBasic forecast support for demonstration projects, socio-economic applications, etcNorth American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS, jointly with Canadians)

THORPEX Data Base (TDB)Establish THORPEX data base for national/international research

Store observational, numerical analysis, forecast, and application dataa) Establish & provide access to archive of operational and research data bases (NOMAD)b) Data types: Observations, re-analysis, ensemble, applications, demo projects, etcc) Funding through basic support plus contributions from research grants

TelecommunicationsTransfer huge data sets for research & demo projects - GLORIAD

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BUDGET HISTORY

FY02 – 150k – all from USWRP funds 50K: Aerosonde test 100K: Partial support for Shapiro as ISSC co-Chair

FY03 – 1.04M – all from USWRP funds 242K: Shapiro support (incl travel) and obs. focal point (Schlatter) 250K: Societal Impact Program (NCAR) 200K: THORPEX IPO and the IOC (150K+50K) 150K: Lenny Smith proposal on utilities' use of probabilistic forecasts 100K: To AOC for NA TRec

FY04 – 2.4M – 1.2M from THORPEX, 1.2M from USWRP funds1150K: THORPEX proposals 206K: Shapiro salary (171k) and travel (35k)320K: NCAR Collaborative Program on the Soc. Impacts and Economic Benefits of Weather Info220K: THORPEX IPO and IOC (170K+50K) – US Rep. to ICSC does not agree with this allocation250K: To AOC for NA TRec 100K To NCEP for NA TRec analysis

BUDGET RECOMMENDATIONS – FY05FY05 THORPEX Funding level (tentative) – $1.3 from FY04, plus $1M from FY05 increase

1) Research Grant Program:a) Continue funding 11 of 12 proposals from FY04 $1050k^ (-75k)b) Support unsolicited research (ens.-based DA, forecast appls, etc) $300k *

2) Transition from Research to Operationsa) Interface with NWP research grant studies (1 contractor at EMC) $100k *Subtotal

$1.45M

3) Infrastructure: a) Operational Test Center (1 contractor at JCSDA) $100k *b) NAEFS/TIGGE (2 contractors at NCEP) $200k^ (-100k)c) THORPEX Data Base support (ETL/NCAR?) $100k *Subtotal

$400k

4) Management:a) WMO Trust Fund / IPO (partial support) $150kb) Co-Chair of ISSC (M. Shapiro, partial support) $150k^ (-75k)c) Overhead (NOAA THORPEX management, travel, etc) $150k *Subtotal

$450kTOTAL

$2.3NOTES:1) 300k not enough for viable AO:

200k supplemental funds would make it possible to issue new AOwith emphasis on model errors & socioeconomic applications

2) If 1M increase is cut: Drop activities with * Reduce funding level for ^ with amount in

parenthesis

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THORPEX Linkages

• Developing Linkages to the IPY

– 07/08 field program (NA winter)

– IPY focus on poles

– THORPEX focus on tropics and middle latitudes

– Hypotheses being developed related to forecast sensitivity to polar regions and/or Pacific Ocean and/or tropics

• Mapping into GEOSS

– Ongoing – THORPEX components (observations, data assimilation, modeling) map right into GEOSS

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NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES

ONGOING APPLIED RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT:

Funded through base & other projects (not through THORPEX)

THORPEX needs to build stronger links with these for full mutual benefit

Observing System: ETL, NESDIS/ORA, FSL, AL; Link w. GEOSS

Data Assimilation: JCSDA, EMC, CDC, FSL

Forecast System: EMC, FSL, CDC, AL (Environmental Modeling Program)

Socioeconomic Applications: ETL, CDC, SIP (Collabor. w. NCAR), EMC

Cross-cutting Activities: Link with NAEFS, IPY, EMC, ETL, EM

NCEP Update

• WRF implementation

– NCEP running test with CMI and 2 dynamic cores

– IOC for WRF CMI with the NMM by end of Sept, 2004

Focus on THORPEX-related Items

NCEP Update

• ESMF Status

– Have successfully coupled NCEP global analysis with NCAR-NASA fvCAM using ESMF

– Will couple GFS with GFDL MOM4 ocean model using ESMF by end of 2004

Focus on THORPEX-related Items

NCEP Update

• North American Ensemble Forecast System

– Effort to leverage international resources to increase number of ensemble members

– Canada and U.S. to share global ensemble runs

– IOC in September to consist of 40 NCEP runs (10 runs x 4/day) and 16 Canadian runs (eventually will expand to 32) for a total of 56

– First step in a 3 year effort

– Will include output from the UK Met Office within 18 months

Focus on THORPEX-related Items

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The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) (to be implemented August 24, 2004)

1. Atmospheric component Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03) T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical Recent upgrades in model physics

Solar radiation (Hou, 1996) cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998) gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995) cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997)

2. Oceanic component GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998) 1/3 in tropics; 1 in extratropics; 40 layers Quasi-global domain (74S to 64N) Free surface

3. Coupled model Once-a-day coupling Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology

CompositeComposite

22

Most Recent CFS

Latest run shows a more moderate warming

Latest CPC Forecast: weak El Nino conditions are expected to develop within the next three months

NCEP Update

• Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationJoint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

Focus on THORPEX-related Items

24

JCSDA Partners

NASA/Goddard

Global Modeling & Assimilation Office

NOAA/NESDIS

Office of Research &

Applications

NOAA/OAR

Office of Weather and Air Quality

NOAA/NCEP

Environmental

Modeling Center

US Navy

Oceanographer of the Navy,Office of Naval Research (NRL)

US Air Force

AF Director of WeatherAF Weather Agency

PARTNERS

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Organizational Structure NASA NOAA DOD

Joint Oversight Board of Directors:NOAA NCEP: L. Uccellini (Chair)

Goddard ESD : F. EinaudiNOAA ORA: M. ColtonNOAA OAR: J. Gaynor

Navy: S. Chang, R. McCoyUSAF: J. Lanicci, M. Farrar

Joint Center StaffCenter Director: John LeMarshall

Executive Directors: Stephen Lord - NWSFuzhong Weng - NESDIS

L. P. Riishogjaard – NASAPat Phoebus - NRLTechnical Liaisons:

DAO – D. DeeEMC – J. Derber

GMAO – M. RieneckerOAR – A. GasiewskiORA – D. TarpleyNavy – N. Baker

USAF – M. McAteeProgram Support: Ada Armstrong

George Ohring (NESDIS)

AdvisoryPanel

Rotating Chair

ScienceSteering

Committee

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JCSDA Road Map (2002 - 2010)

Improved JCSDA data assimilation science

2002 2004 2007 2008 2009 2005

OK

Deficiency

2003

Advanced JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model,Advanced data thinning techniques

Sci

ence

Ad

van

ce

By 2010, a numerical weather prediction community will be empowered to effectively assimilate increasing amounts of

advanced satellite observations

2010

AMSU, HIRS, SSM/I, Quikscat,

AVHRR, TMI, GOES assimilated

AIRS, ATMS, CrIS, VIIRS, IASI, SSM/IS, AMSR, more products assimilated

Pre-JCSDA data assimilation science

Radiative transfer model, OPTRAN, ocean microwave emissivity, microwave land emissivity model, and GFS data assimilation system were developed

The radiances of satellite sounding channels were assimilated into EMC global model under only clear atmospheric conditions. Some satellite surface products (SST, GVI and snow cover, wind) were used in EMC models

A beta version of JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model (CRTM) transfer model will be developed, including non-raining clouds, snow and sea ice surface conditions

The radiances from advanced sounders will be used. Cloudy radiances will be tested under rain-free atmospheres, and more products (ozone, water vapor winds) are assimilated

NPOESS sensors ( CMIS, ATMS…) GOES-R

The CRTM includes scattering & polarization from cloud, precip and surface

The radiances can be assimilated under all conditions with the state-of-the science NWP models

Resources:

27

• JCSDA is funding 18 extramural research projects to develop the state of-the-art satellite data assimilation system (e.g. uses of cloudy radiances from advanced satellite instruments, uses of satellite snow and vegetation products)

• Preparation for uses of advanced satellite data such as METOP (IASI/AMSU/HSB), DMSP (SSM/IS) and EOS (Aqua AIRS, AMSR-E)

• NCEP global data assimilation system implemented into NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) forecast system

• JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model

• Snow and sea ice emissivity models for improving uses of satellite microwave sounding data over high latitudes

• Impact studies of POES AMSU, EOS AIRS, DMSP SSMIS, MODIS and COSMIC on NWP through EMC parallel experiments

JCSDA FY03-04 Major Projects

Recent Accomplishments of the JCSDA

Land emissivity model tested in NCEP operational models Positive impacts with AMSU data over land (May,2002) Operational implementation (October, 2002)

New Data used in NCEP operational models SSM/I, TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates SSM/I, AMSU cloud liquid water GOES-10 IR radiances QuikSCAT data ( ~ 5 to 15% improvement in 10 m winds)

AIRS Assessment AIRS data examined at several intervals over the course of one year Initial tests indicate neutral impact in most forecast skill measures, slight positive impact in others, focused on

254 channels out of 2378 Full data assimilation implementation scheduled for 1st Quarter FY05

MODIS winds Slight positive impact; implementation 1st Quarter FY05

NCEP Update

• Within NCEP

– Joint Hurricane Test Bed (USWRP)

– Hazardous Weather Test Bed (NOAA/OAR/NWS base)

– Aviation Test Bed (FAA)

• Affiliated with NCEP

– WRF Developmental Test Bed (NCAR/FSL)

• Being developed

– Hydrometeorological Test Bed (USWRP)

– Climate Test Bed (OGP)

– WRF Operational Test Bed (TBD;NWS)

Focus on THORPEX-related Items

NCEP Test Beds

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Summary

• THORPEX planning is ongoing

– Linked to NOAA PPBES

• Field programs being linked to AMMA (05-07), IPY (07-08)

• Attempting to balance THORPEX components: research, operational transitions, societal impact

• NCEP components being aligned with THORPEX plans – more needs to be done (e.g., Test Bed activities)

• Several Issues

– Reallocation vs “new” money

– Climate-weather linkage in THORPEX