Three Cafes:

An advanced

participatory methodology

for futures studies

2015. 6. 11.

JUNG BONG CHAN

itsme23@kaist.ac.kr

1. Analysis of Existing Participatory Methodologies

Scenario workshop [1], [2], [3]

Creating visions -> Turning visions into reality

Future visioning workshop [4]

Appreciating the past → Understanding the present →

Forecasting aspects of the futures → Experiencing alternative futures →

Envisioning the futures → Creating the futures → Institutionalizing futures research

[1] I. Andersen and B. Jæger, “Danish participatory models,” vol. 26, no. 5, pp. 331–340, 1999.

[2] V. a. Bañuls and M. Turoff, “Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 78, no. 9, pp. 1579–1602, Nov. 2011.

[3] V. a. Bañuls, M. Turoff, and S. R. Hiltz, “Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency management through cross-impact,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 80, no. 9, pp. 1756–1774, Nov. 2013.

[4] J. Dator, “Alternative Futures at the Manoa School,” Futur. Stud., vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 1–18, 2009

Future workshop [5]

(1) preparatory, (2) critique, (3) fantasy and (4) implementation phase.

Foresight workshop [6]

(1) Preparation of the foresight; (2) Foresight diagnosis; (3) Identification of long-term

issues (4) Construction of the common vision (5) Definition of the key strategic areas

(6) Implementation of concrete actions; (7) Evaluation

Crowdsourcing the public participation process [7]

Crowdsourcing is for harnessing collective intellect and creative solutions

from networks in organized ways

[5] Müllert, N., R. Jungk, and Institute for Social Inventions, London (United Kingdom);. Future Workshops: How to create desirable futures. London, 1987

[6] P. Destatte, “Foresight: A major tool in tackling sustainable development,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 77, no. 9, pp. 1575–1587, Nov. 2010.

[7] D. C. Brabham, “Crowdsourcing the Public Participation Process for Planning Projects,” Plan. Theory, vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 242–262, Jul. 2009.

1. Analysis of Existing Participatory Methodologies

[8] C. Daheim and G. Uerz, “Corporate foresight in Europe: from trend based logics to open foresight,” Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag., vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 321–336, May 2008.[9] Miemis, Venessa, John Smart, and Alvis Brigis. "Open foresight," Journal of Futures Studies, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 91–98, 2012[10] V. a. Bañuls and M. Turoff, “Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 78, no. 9, pp. 1579–1602, Nov. 2011

Open foresight [8], [9]

(1) Collective and Participatory Structure (2) Open Access, Online, and Input-Diverse

(3) Incentives to Participate.

Delphi Method [10]

Traditional corporate foresights have generally been focused around experts and

small groups, as is demonstrated by the Delphi method.

1. Analysis of Existing Participatory Methodologies

2. Limitation of traditional approaches to existing participatory methodologies

1. Many organizations rely on experts for so many things in participatory methods.Inclusion of non-expert knowledge was beneficial futures studies,since the perspectives of individuals can discover creative solutions.

2. It is hard to motivate members to participate in futures studies.If we fail to motivate members to participate, outputs and action plans will not be credible.

3. It is difficult that the merits of both online and offline environments arecombined for a future research methodology in order to encourage theparticipation of those generations who are familiar with online and thosewho are familiar with offline. (with both digital natives and digital immigrants together)

3. Designing Advanced Participatory Methodology

The methodology is comprised of three steps, the World Cafe, the Futures Cafe, and the Game Cafe, and hence is named the “Three Cafes”. It is based on Three Dimensional Foresight Method which is comprised of three axes : (1) Axis of Time, (2) Axis of Space, and (3) Axis of Field.

Fig. Three Cafes Method based on Three Dimensional Creativity

4. Designing Advanced Participatory Methodology

Fig. Organization of Three Cafes

정치

World CafeSelecting drivers of change in the future

사회 기술 경제 환경 (Political)(Society) (Technology) (Economics) (Environment)

World Cafe

Classification 1 2 3 4 5

SocialChange of

householdsUrban migration Communities Education Aged population

Technological

Information and

communications

technologies

Contact / connec

tion

Dependence on

technologies

Virtual reality

gamesBionic humans

EconomicSocial

polarization

Livelihood

opportunities

Elderly depende

ncy ratioLabor vacuum

Business

opportunities

EnvironmentalIncreased use of

automobilesClimate change

Disaster

managementInvisible effects Eco-cities

Political Public sentimentCapacity enhanc

ementRepresentation Policymaking Equity

Selecting Drivers of Change in the Future of SNS

- Example of the World Cafe Outcomes

Selecting drivers of change in the future

World Cafe

Future issues Drivers of change

A human clone communicates with

people and reports to its owner.

Bionic humans, Information and

communications technologies,

aged population, capacity enhancement,

urban migration

SNS spread to the global cyberspace. Contact/connection, virtual reality

games, communities, climate change,

representation

The government abolishes the SNS. Public sentiment, social polarization,

invisible effects, labor vacuum,

dependence on technologies

Identifying Issues of the Future of SNS

Selecting drivers of change in the future

Introducing the Futures Cafe Organizing four teams

Exploring a future at each of the four teams How to write a scenario

Organizing a scenario Deepening the scenario Character storytelling

Sharing/feedback Voting Desirable future scenario One action

Creating a story Selecting characters Making story pitches

Making the scenario for presentation with puppet play

Q&A session and questionnaires

Closing

Futures CafeOne action can change the whole world

Futures Café One action can change the whole world

Futures CaféOne action can change the whole world

Futures CaféOne action can change the whole world

Puppet play about Future scenarios

Game Cafe

유사사례 :국민참여 아이디어 오디션(www.ideaaudition.com)

1. Announcing the future images drawn in the Futures Cafe2. Users register feasible ideas3. Determining points and rankings after evaluation by Internet users4. Determining outstanding ideas through repetition, circulation, and retries5. Research members conduct their own assessment of the top ideas selected6. Granting rewards to the final top ideas

Second roundFirst round

Future of the SNS Future of the company, individuals

,and core values

• 1st : World and Futures Cafes • 2nd and 3rd : World and Futures Cafes

• 4th and 5th : World, Futures, and Game Cafes

No. Date Theme MethodologyNo. of Parti

cipants

1 Mar. 6, 2014 Future of the SNS World and Futures Cafes 20

2 Mar. 14, 2014Future of the company and individu

als and core valuesWorld and Futures Cafes 22

3 Mar. 21, 2014Future of the company and individu

als and core valuesWorld and Futures Cafes 21

4 Mar. 28, 2014Future of the company and individu

als and core values

World, Futures, and Game

Cafes25

5 Jul. 2, 2014Future of the company and individu

als and core values

World, Futures, and Game

Cafes23

Total Five sessions in total 111

6. Operation of Three Cafes

Type Topic DetailsNo. of que

stions

1 Degree of self-change for the future Changes in missions and core values 2

2 Degree of changing the future image Changing the future image of 2025 2

3 Degree of thinking about the futureThinking about the future of oneself and the co

mpany2

4 Degree of practicing core valuesMeasuring the power of execution of the six co

re values23

Total 29

Questionnaires

Type Topic DetailsNo. of que

stions

1 Self-driven learning The act of teaching oneself about a subject 15

2 Learning culture The collective values, beliefs and principles about learning 10

Total 25

First Round

Second Round

Sub-factorAverage Difference

Pre-workshop survey Post-workshop survey t p

Self-driven learning 3.35 4.20 -14.8 .000***

Learning culture 3.41 3.88 -5.6 .000***

Sub-factorPre-workshop survey Post-workshop survey Difference

Average Average t p

Self-change for the future 3.00 3.19 -3.0 .002**

Changing the future image 3.00 3.12 -2.4 .017*

Degree of thinking about the future 3.87 4.41 -7.1 .000***

Power of executing core values 3.91 4.27 -14.6 .000***

7. Analysis

First Round

Second Round

After the workshop, the participants’ self-driven learning and learning culture for the future were found to have improved.

After the workshop, the four sub-factors were all found to have improved.

Classific

ationTheme

Average Difference

<2nd and 3rd >

World and Futur

es Cafes

<4th and 5th>

World, Futures,

and Game Cafes

p

1 Self-change for the future 3.00 3.37 -

2 Changing the future image 3.01 3.22 -

3 Degree of thinking about the future 4.34 4.47 .002**

4 Power of executing core values 4.00 4.45 .000***

Three Cafes

7. Analysis

As a result of comparing the second and third workshops involving the World Cafe and Futures Cafe and the fourth and fifth workshops involving all of the World Cafe, Futures Cafe, and Game Cafe, the four sub-factors mentioned above all.

8. Conclusion

The participants in the five workshops reported that the four factors had improved on average in the post-workshop survey than in the pre-workshop one.

The participants found themselves more able to changethemselves for the future, think more about the future, envision the future image more frequently, andimagine a new future image after visualizing futures.

One action for the future from one person…One action for the future from one person…

If all together, it could be big wave and it can make preferred and desirable futures.

Thank you!