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• 1941: Accession of Mohammed Reza Pahlavi• 1950: Mohammed Mossadiq becomes Prime Minister• 1953: Shah overthrows Mossadiq in a coup d’etat• 1963: Beginning of the White Revolution• 1979: Iranian Revolution led by liberal nationalists and alienated clerics; US

hostage crisis begins• 1980-1988: Iran-Iraq war• 1989: Ayatollah Khomeini dies/President Khamenei becomes Supreme Leader• 1989: Ali Rafsanjani becomes President• 1997: Mohammed Khatami becomes President in a surprise upset (70% of vote)• 1999: Large-scale pro-democracy protests• 2000: Liberals win the majority of seats in the majlis elections; hardliners crack

down on the media and civil society• 2001: Khatami wins a 2nd term by a landslide• 2004: Conservatives win control of parliament after most liberal candidates are

rejected by the Council of Guardians• 2005: Ahmadinejad wins presidency, beating centrist Rafsanjani• 2009: Ahmadinejad wins presidency in a contested election, beating independent

reformist candidate Mousavi• 2009-2010: Widespread protests at perceived electoral corruption: Green

revolution begins

Timeline of Iranian Politics

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• Revolutionary forces in Iran– Protests were led by the ulema in 1963 under Khomeini and urban terrorist groups

emerged– Shah became totally repressive after 1975; taking away autonomy of clerics and the

bazaari merchants– Economy was in turmoil with rampant inflation from excessive oil spending– Opposition spoke out and was led by the Freedom movement in Iran (liberal) and

militant ulema (conservative-revolutionary)– Militant ulema led by Ayatollah Khomeini pressed for rule by Islamic clerics– A cycle of religious protests, police violence, mourning protests, police violence,

became more and more pronounced in 1978– The shah left for Egypt in exile in 1979, and the Freedom Movement and Khomeini

were left to fight it out; Khomeini eventually won

Revolution in Iran

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Anti-Americanism in Iran• Support for the shah– The CIA coup; support for the Shah’s repression

• The hostage crisis– From 1979 to 1981; Iranians held US diplomats after taking over the embassy– Carter lost the election to Reagan; the hostages were released as a show of good will

toward Reagan

• The Iran-Contra scandal– US sold arms to its enemy Iran in the mid-1980s, to get help freeing American

hostages held by the Lebanese Hizbullah– The earnings were illegally diverted to a rebel movement in Nicaragua, the Contras

• The process of demonization– Anti-US rallies; US as the devil: “Death to America” becomes a popular slogan– America frames Iran as the center of the axis of evil

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Key characters in Iranian politics

Ayatollah Ruhollah KhomeiniSupreme Leader Ali Khameini

Former President Rafsanjani

Former President KhatamiCurrent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Presidential Candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi

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Iranian political institutions• Dual nature of institutions: Secular and Religious parallels– Result of intense debates during the revolution about the constitution

• Supreme leader (Faqih)– Ultimate veto power over most everything; vacillates between using it and not– Has strong appointment powers over the judiciary and the military– Like Plato’s philosopher-king; life term; elected by the Assembly of Experts

• President– Strongest executive except for the faqih– Independently elected

• Majlis– Contested and reasonably powerful legislative body

• Council of Guardians– Designed to keep any legislation from violating the shari’a– Also vets political candidates; appointed directly or indirectly by the supreme leader– Has vetoed every single reform law passed by the majlis in recent years

• Expediency Council– Designed to resolve conflicts between the Majlis and the Council of Guardians– In 2000, it allowed some Majlis legislation to pass over the Council, but is now very

conservative

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Elected and unelected institutions in Iran

The process of vetting who can run for election is key to understanding how these institutions interact

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Liberalism vs. clericalism in Iran• Political divisions– Political parties were illegal for a long time; still act as informal blocs– Groups of independent candidates (most of whom are clerics), who tend to ally with

each other

• Combatant clerics– Care deeply about maintaining political power; actively defend the Supreme Leader– Are conservative on key social and religious issues

• Militant clerics– “Leftist” splinter from the combatant clerics; held considerable power in the

government in the late 1980s– Have argued for more power to the majlis– Were shut out of government in the early 1990s, but did well in the 1997 elections

supporting Khatami

• Servants of Construction– Non-clerical group of technocrats formed in the mid-1990s– Fit somewhere between the two groups; supporters of the former President Rafsanjani– Supported Khatami in the 1997 elections

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2008 Iranian legislative election results

Since Khatami, the majlis has seen a big shift towards the conservatives, in large part due to active vetting

Conservatives 67%

Reformists 18%

Independents 13%

Religious Minorities 2%

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The potential for political reform in Iran• Iran’s underlying liberal culture– Many Iranians resent strict control of the public sphere– Official ideology vs. public preferences

• Challenges to the Iranian regime– Disillusionment of reformers after Khatami’s presidency– Reasons for Ahmadinejad’s political success: populism, economic redistribution– Centralization of power in the Council of Guardians and Revolutionary Guard– Most Iranians no longer remember the Shah– Fragmentation of elites over the direction of the revolution

• The 2009 elections– Ahmadinejad faced a credible challenge in a new revolutionary reformer: Mousavi– Ahmadinejad officially won the election by 2/3 of the vote, but there was some fraud

• Mobilization as part of the “Green Revolution”– Mousavi leads supporters in a campaign of popular protest: “where is my vote?”– Hundreds of thousands join in peaceful protests across Iran– Repression triggers further protests– Costs of mobilization become too high and the protests slow down

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Images from the Green Revolution