TNS Media Intelligence/ Campaign Media Analysis Group

September 4, 2008

The “Business” of Politics

The 2008 Election Forecast Update

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Part of a world leading market information group TNS

Located in Arlington, VA

Providing insights on political media research since 1997

Track and analyze political public affairs and issue-advocacy advertising

Experienced political researchers assemble the most reliable comprehensive research and reporting 

Help clients better manage their media strategy, media buys, public relations and communications efforts

National trade associations, foundations, Fortune 100 companies, national media organizations, the political and financial press academia and hundreds of national, statewide and local political campaigns rely on CMAG data

TNS Media Intelligence/CMAGThe Business of Politics

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The 2008 Election Forecast UpdateThe “Business” of Politics

Review the CMAG Forecast

The Building Blocks of Our 2008 Forecast

Not a banner year

The numbers

State & Local Overview

The Race For the White House

The battleground

The landscape

Looking Ahead

2009 and 2010

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast:

The Political Marketplace

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending OverviewThe Race to Election Day

CMAG Forecast: $3 Billion on Campaign Ads

27 percent of total and climbing

$430m more than 2004

Over $25 million per week

Typically 70 percent of total is spent over final 60 days

Spending Drivers

Historic presidential race

Competitive down ballot races

Ballot measures

Well-funded interest groups

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The 2008 CMAG ForecastBuilding Blocks

Macro-Factors (wrong)

Both presidential candidates will forego public financing

Primaries will be over after February 5, 2008

Early start to general election ads

Network TV will not be utilized beyond the primary

Similar battleground from 2000 and 2004 elections

Groups will be early and significant ad spenders

US House will become GOP “firewall”

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The 2008 CMAG Forecast Building Blocks

Macro-Factors (right)

Record primary ad spending

Early start to primary ads

Expansion of candidates using TV ads

Some network TV and more cable buys

Growth in “issue awareness” spending

The Internet will not replaced TV in 2008

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Internet ElectionTake Six

This Is “The Internet Election” (maybe)

1998: Read my plan

2000: Look what I can do!

2002: Cool web site, bad candidate

2004: Meet up with Howard Dean

2006: Macaca mania

2008: Tools in the box

Internet: Still More Questions Than Answers

Is it for selling or buying?

Can you reach undecided voters?

- If yes, how?What’s the role for web ads in 2010 and beyond?

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Top-tier presidential campaigns

Online ads mostly used for fundraising and grassroots

$7-10 million total spent in presidential race

$3-5 million on non-presidential ads

Top sites: local and national news, ideology, demographic, sports and election

Mistakes and perception

Campaign 2008 Election Spending ForecastThe Role of the Internet in the 2008 Election

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers

Breakdown of 2008 Forecast vs. Actual 2008

US Senate:

Candidate $220-250 million $40 million

Party $60-100 million $5 million

IE $10-20 million $9.5 million

US House:

Candidate $200-230 million $41 million

Party $100-160 million $4 million

IE $20-50 million $5.4 million

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending ForecastBy the Numbers: The US Senate

US Senate - Sea of red- The Magic 60?- New GOP Firewall

Most Competitive States - Alaska- Colorado- Kentucky - Maine- Minnesota- Mississippi- New Hampshire - New Mexico - North Carolina- Oregon - Virginia

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending ForecastBy the Numbers: US House

US House

Enormous battleground

Democratic Party cash advantage

- Over $50 million placed alreadyCash-strapped GOP

Most Competitive StatesArizona

Connecticut

Indiana

Ohio

New York

New Mexico

New Hampshire

Florida

Pennsylvania

Virginia

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers

Breakdown of 2008 Forecast vs. Actual 2008

State and Local

Governors $90-110 million $31 million

Ballots $190-230 million $121 million

Judges/AG $50-60 million $12 million

Other $175-250 million $32 million

Issue: $330-400 million $250 million

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers

Governors

- 11 states holding governor elections

Ballot Measures

- 28 states - Affirmative action, abortion,

healthcare, gaming, gay rights, taxes immigration, energy and unions

- Over $114 million in California

Issue Ad Spending

- Energy, environment, healthcare and telecom

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers

2008 Race for the White House

Primary Overview:

Over $220 million on TV ads in primary

Combined spending: Democrats $150 million vs. GOP $58 million

Majority of early IE spending on issues and not candidates

Ad spending focused on early states

- $87 million spent on TV ads in IA, NH and SC

- Contest-by-contest focus meant primary ad spending in 46 states

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending ForecastBy the Numbers

Breakdown of 2008 Forecast vs. Actual 2008

Presidential Race:Candidate $400-460 million $269 million*Party $150-175 million $4.1 millionGroups $100-140 million $71 million

*January-August 24th 2008

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2008 Forecast Update

The Battleground

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2004 Election Map Begin Where We Ended

Bush: 286Kerry: 252

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Pre-Labor Day Target States

Alaska

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The Battleground Many Scenarios and Possibilities

Post Convention Battlefield

Minimal bounce for Obama campaign

What will the McCain Convention/Palin bounce be?

Battleground Today

7 True Battleground states

- NV, CO, NM, NH, ND, OH, & VA5 Lean Republican

- GA, FL, IN, MO, & MT4 Lean Democrat

- PA, IA, WI, & MI

Key Regions/States this Fall

Mountain West (CO, NM, NV and MT)

Great Lakes (MI, WI OH, MN and Western PA)

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2008 Forecast Update

The Race for the White House

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The Stretch Run The Landscape: “Most Advantages Since Watergate”

Polls Favors Democrats Nationally - Unpopular president- Right track/wrong track - Political scandals and mismanagement - Economic anxiety - War fatigued- Lopsided party ID/registration - Down ballot races leaning

overwhelmingly toward Democrats- Democrats have a monetary advantage

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The Candidates Barack Obama

Spending & Fundraising

Record-setting

Expanding use of media/tools

Off public financing

Strategy

Use up as much “oxygen” as possible with ads and media

Own, don’t rent, the message

National themes and local attacks

Keys to success

Expand the battleground

Prevent being “Swift-boated”

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The Candidates John McCain

Spending & Fundraising

Finished primary strong

Taking public financing

Strategy

Go negative

Disciplined

Define the race

Keys to success

Keep battleground compact

RNC money

Rely on groups for some messages

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The Supporter Will they play a role?

The Party’s

Republican Party is well-funded

- Support role for McCain Democratic Party is not as well funded

- Raising money now - Tapping Obama donors

527 Groups

Late money is being raised

Disruptive

Issue-Driven Agenda Groups

Millions spent on issues focused on the general election

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The Presidential Race It All Comes Down to Turnout

Crucial Voting Blocs

Clinton supporters

Ron Paul supporters

Evangelicals

Hispanics

Moderate/Independents

Young voters

Tone Of the race

Negative

Personal

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Political Factors

Pres. & Vice Pres. debates will be crucial

Battleground post-conventions?

Can Obama turn any red states purple?

Can McCain hold the base?

Fundraising Republican vs. Democratic

Can Obama raise $1 billion from his 2 million?

Can McCain/RNC/others keep up?

International or Domestic Events

Weather, Economy, War on Terror, Russia, Israel and Iran

October Surprises

What will they be?

Will the undecided break come early or late?

Events: Impacting Election Spending

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2008 Forecast Update

Looking Ahead

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Looking Ahead: 2009New Beginning

Reasons to be Optimistic about spending

Start of a new political business cycle

One Political Party will need re-building and re-branding

New Federal Government

Leadership & makeup of US House and Senate

Special elections:- Arizona and/or Illinois/Delaware - Cabinet Appointments

2008 Issues Drive 2009 Issue Ad Spending:

Energy $232 million

Healthcare $150 million

Economy $72 million

Iraq $55 million

Gas Prices $40 million

Trade $9 million

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Looking Ahead 2010Onward and Upwards

Early campaigning

2010 redistricting

Target States

Arkansas

California

Ohio

Georgia

Pennsylvania

Florida

New Record Likely

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Thank You

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Past, Present, Future