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TOEKOMST VAN HET
VOLWASSENENONDERWIJS
Dirk Van Damme
OECD/EDU/IMEP
RLLL-RLLL-DOC-1516-029
• Demografische, sociaal-economische en
onderwijsuitdagingen en trends
• Het aanhoudende probleem van lage competenties
• Participatie
• Worden competenties gewaardeerd op arbeidsmarkt en
in samenleving?
• Leermotivatie en leerklimaat
• Beleidsvragen
• Enkele conclusies
Schema
UITDAGINGEN EN TRENDS
• Demografie en migratie
• Nog steeds lage werkzaamheidsgraad ouderen,
dus veel actieve vroeggepensioneerden
• Blijvende instroom laaggeschoolde en
laaggeletterde jongvolwassenen
• Werkloosheid en inactiviteit
• Steeds hogere en complexere competentie-eisen
Uitdagingen en trends
Percentage of 25-34 year-olds with attainment below upper
secondary education (2014)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ch
ina
Indon
esia
Me
xic
o
Turk
ey
Co
sta
Ric
a
Bra
zil
Port
ug
al
Saud
i A
rabia
Spain
Co
lom
bia
Icela
nd
Ita
ly
South
Afr
ica
Ch
ile
Ne
w Z
eala
nd
No
rwa
y
Gre
ece
Sw
ede
n
De
nm
ark
Belg
ium
EU
21 a
vera
ge
OE
CD
avera
ge
Ne
therl
and
s
Fra
nce
La
tvia
Un
ite
d K
ing
dom
Austr
alia
Lu
xe
mbo
urg
Hu
nga
ry
Germ
any
Lithu
ania
Esto
nia
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Austr
ia
Irela
nd
Fin
land
Isra
el
Sw
itzerl
and
Slo
vak R
epub
lic
Ca
nad
a
Slo
ven
ia
Pola
nd
Czech R
epu
blic
Ru
ssia
n F
ed
era
tion
Kore
a
%
6
Hogere en complexere competenties
7
Hogere en complexere competenties
Routine manual
Nonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Nonroutine analytic
Nonroutine interpersonal
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009
Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution (US)
LAGE COMPETENTIES NOG STEEDS ERG REËEL PROBLEEM
Percentage of adults at each literacy level
100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Italy
Spain
Cyprus¹ ²
France
Ireland
Poland
Austria
United States
Germany
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Korea
Denmark
Average
Czech Republic
Canada
Flanders (Belgium)
Slovak Republic
Estonia
Norway
Australia
Sweden
Netherlands
Finland
Japan
Percent
100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Italy
Spain
France
Ireland
Poland
Northern Ireland (UK)
Austria
United States
Germany
Denmark
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Korea
England (UK)
Average
Canada
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Russian Federation³
Flanders (Belgium)
Estonia
Norway
Sweden
Australia
Netherlands
Finland
Japan
25th
Mean and .95
confidence interval
for mean
75th 95th5th
Skills of adults
Literacy
11
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
PIAAC mean literacy proficiency scores for 25-64 year-olds by educational attainment (2012)
Tertiary Education Below upper secondary education Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education
100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100
PolandIreland
Slovak RepublicEstonia
KoreaUnited States
AustriaCzech Republic
AverageFlanders (Belgium)
JapanEngland/N. Ireland (UK)
GermanyCanada
AustraliaDenmark
NorwayNetherlands
FinlandSweden
Level 2 Level 3
Young adults (16-24 year-olds) All adults (16-65 year-olds)
Proficiency in problem solving in technology-rich
environments
%
12
Percentage of adults with good information and communication technologies and
problem-solving skills, by educational attainment (2012)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Th
e N
eth
erl
an
ds
Sw
ede
n
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Norw
ay
Fin
land
Austr
alia
Denm
ark
Fla
nde
rs (
Be
lgiu
m)
Germ
any
Eng
land
/N.
Irela
nd
(UK
) Avera
ge
United
Sta
tes
Austr
ia
Ja
pa
n
Slo
vak R
epu
blic
Cana
da
Ire
land
Kore
a
Pola
nd
Esto
nia
Russia
n F
ede
ratio
n
Tertiary
Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education
Below upper secondary%
PARTICIPATIE EN EFFECT
Less than 50% of adults participate in formal and/or
non-formal education in a given year in Flanders
Adult participation in formal and/or non-formal education (2012)
66 66 66 64 6459 58
56 5653 53 51 51 50 50 49 48 47
42
36 3533
2520
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Fin
land
Denm
ark
Sw
ede
n
Norw
ay
Neth
erla
nds
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Ca
na
da
Eng
land
/N.
Irela
nd (
UK
)
Austr
alia
Germ
any
Esto
nia
Avera
ge
Ire
land
Kore
a
Czech R
ep
ub
lic
Fla
nde
rs (
Be
lgiu
m)
Austr
ia
Spa
in
Ja
pa
n
Fra
nce
Pola
nd
Slo
vak R
epu
blic
Italy
Ru
ssia
n F
ede
ratio
n
%
Ongelijkheden in participatie in PIAAC
Likelihood of participating in adult education and training, by
level of literacy proficiency
17
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5
Reference group: Below Level 1
Odds Ratio
Participatie volgens arbeidsmarktstatus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Employed Unemployed Inactive%
The higher the level of skills, the more likely the
participation in employer-sponsored education
Participation in employer-sponsored formal and/or non-formal education, by skills and readiness to use
information and communication technologies for problem solving (2012)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Denm
ark
No
rwa
y
Fin
land
Neth
erla
nds
United
Sta
tes
Sw
ede
n
Austr
alia
Eng
land
/N.
Irela
nd
(UK
) Cana
da
Esto
nia
Avera
ge
Ire
land
Germ
any
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Fla
nde
rs (
Be
lgiu
m)
Kore
a
Austr
ia
Slo
vak R
epu
blic
Ja
pa
n
Pola
nd
Ru
ssia
n F
ede
ratio
n
%
Group 4 (Good ICT and problem-solving skills)
Group 3(Moderate ICT and problem-solving skills)
Group 2(Failed ICT core test or minimal problem-solving skills)
Group 0(No computer experience)
Participation in employer-sponsored education, by occupation (2011, 2012)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Fin
land
Denm
ark
Sw
ede
n
Norw
ay
Neth
erla
nds
Eng
land
/N.
Irela
nd
(UK
)
United
Sta
tes
Austr
alia
Esto
nia
Germ
any
Ire
land
Cana
da
Avera
ge
Fla
nde
rs (
Be
lgiu
m)
Czech R
ep
ub
lic
Kore
a
Ja
pa
n
Spa
in
Austr
ia
Pola
nd
Fra
nce
Slo
vak R
epu
blic
Italy
Ru
ssia
n F
ede
ratio
n
%
Skilled occupations Semi-skilled white-collar occupations
Semi-skilled blue-collar occupations Elementary occupations
Actual and predicted literacy proficiency for 26-27 year olds in PIAAC.
• Proficiency predicted on basis of average PISA reading score in 2000, estimated
years in education by age 27 and labour market conditions over 2008-2011
Proficiency growth
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
Actual Predicted
KWALIFICATIES MAAR OOK COMPETENTIES ZIJN VAN BELANG
Relatief belang formeel onderwijs en
geletterdheid op loon
Relatief belang formeel onderwijs en
geletterdheid op loon
25
The effect of education and literacy on labour
market participation
26
Employment rate and earnings by educational
attainment and literacy - Flanders
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Average monthly earnings ($USD)
Employment rate (%)
Earnings
ISCED 0/1/2 ISCED 3/4 ISCED 5/6
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3Level 4/5
Likelihood of positive social and economic outcomes among highly literate adults
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
Good toexcellent
health
BeingEmployed
High levels oftrust
Participation involunteeractivities
High levels ofpoliticalefficacy
High wages
Average Germany England (UK) Flanders (Belgium)
(scoring at Level 4/5 compared with those scoring at Level 1 or below)
Odds ratio
27
Maar sociale effecten van competenties zijn geringer
An individual with higher levels of literacy is more likely
to trust others
Proportion of adults reporting that they trust others, by PIAAC literacy proficiency level (2012)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Slo
vak
Re
pu
blic
Esto
nia
Italy
Czech
Re
pu
blic
Fra
nce
Kore
a
Germ
any
Ja
pa
n
Ire
land
Pola
nd
Eng
land
/N.
Ire
land
(U
K)
Avera
ge
Fla
nde
rs(B
elg
ium
)
Ca
na
da
Spa
in
Austr
ia
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Austr
alia
Fin
land
Ne
the
rla
nds
Sw
ede
n
Norw
ay
Denm
ark
%Level 1 or below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 or 5
LEERKLIMAAT
Kwalificatie-behoefte
Leerbehoefte
Field-of-study mismatch
Leervraag
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Russian Federation*
Slovak Republic
Poland
Italy
Czech Republic
Flanders (Belgium)
France
Japan
Austria
Netherlands
Australia
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Average
Norway
Germany
Finland
Ireland
Spain
Canada
Estonia
Sweden
Korea
Denmark
United States
Participant, wanting learning activities Non-participant, wanting learning activitiesParticipant, not wanting learning activities Non-participant, not wanting learning activities
Participatie en leervraag
BELEIDSVRAGEN
• Financiering
– Toenemende belang niet-publieke financiering in
post-initiële educatie
– Overheid trekt zich terug op financiering
leerplichtonderwijs
– Rol bedrijfsleven in beroepsgerichte en duale
trajecten
– Discussie ondersteuning kwetsbare studenten en
vraagstimulering
Enkele beleidsvragen
• Professionalisering leraren
– Heel uiteenlopende systemen
– Vaak aparte opleidingsroutes en certificering
leraren volwassenenonderwijs, maar soms ook
geen echte noodzaak certificering
– Zij-instroom en part-time aanstellingen
Enkele beleidsvragen
• Institutionalisering
– Aparte systemen van volwassenenonderwijs erg
zeldzaam
– Vaak ingebed in hoger onderwijs (community
colleges) of beroepsonderwijs
– Belangrijk: systemen van credit-transfer
– EVC-systemen zijn veel minder succesvol dan
verwacht, maar meestal decentraal, op niveau
instellingen georganiseerd
Enkele beleidsvragen
ENKELE CONCLUSIES
• (Droom van een) levenslang lerende samenleving
nog niet gerealiseerd
• Objectieve kwalificatie-behoefte relatief laag,
subjectieve leervraag relatief zwak, leerklimaat
relatief slecht
• Onderwijssysteem schermt risico’s
ongekwalificeerdheid en laaggeletterdheid
onvoldoende af
• Vraagstimulering bij kwetsbare doelgroepen blijft erg
belangrijk
Enkele conclusies
• Arbeidsmarkt wordt stilaan meer competentie- en
minder kwalificatie-gedreven
• Relatief goede verticale match kwalificaties en skills
met arbeidsmarktnoden, maar wel inhoudelijke
mismatch
• Arbeidsmarkt niet flexibel genoeg om mismatches
ook te vertalen in leervraag
• Impact competenties op sociale uitkomsten en
sociale cohesie relatief beperkt
Enkele conclusies
