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LNG NORTH AMERICA
HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002
Overview of the market for LNG VesselsBy
Tor Olav Troim, Director and CEO, Golar LNG Ltd.
Golar LNG Ltd.
• World’s largest independent LNG shipowner (10 ships)
• Present in both Atlantic and Pacific basin
• Listed on Oslo stock exchange, will be listed in US within Q1 2002
• Actively Pursuing additional activities in LNG Trading and downstream LNG chain
The Golar Strategy
• To be a shipowner that charters out LNG tonnage for various periods to the market in general.
• To be an LNG trader that buys LNG FOB from various sources either alone or with a partner, and sells gas to LNG customers all over the world. As part of the trading activity, Golar will consider investing in other parts of the LNG chain, like liquefaction or regasification capacity.
• To be an LNG development / construction company that invests in or develops new concepts like floating regas or liquefaction units.
Global LNG Trade Flows (Long Term)
Alaska
Algeria
Australia
Everett
Lake Charles India
Atlantic Basin
33 vessels
Asia/Pacific Basin
88 vessels
Import Terminal
Export Terminal
Turkey
TaiwanJapan
U.A.E./
Qatar/OmanTrinidad & Tobago Nigeria
Indonesia/Malaysia/Brunei
LNG Imports in 2000Milliontonnes
% Changefrom 1999
Japan 53.32 5Korea 14.31 12Taiwan 4.37 11Asia 72 7France 8.58 16Spain 6.82 26Belgium 3.11 6Turkey 3.213 47Italy 2.63 27Greece 0.38Europe 24.74 24USA 4.82 40Puerto Rico 0.26Americas 5.08 47TOTAL 101.81 12
Sources of LNG Imports in 2000Milliontonnes
% Changeform 1999
Indonesia 26.73 -6Malaysia 15.03 2Australia 7.18 -1Brunei 6.58 8Asia Pacific 55.53 -2Algeria 9.75 3Abu Dhabi 5.00 -2Qatar 10.24 62Libya 0.58 -17Nigeria 4.43 2648Oman 2.04 34Mideast/Africa 42.04 88Trinidad 2.90 3USA (Alaska) 1.34 49TOTAL 4.24 12
Summary of Global LNG Trade
Source for both tables : WGI
129.6
26.9
77
233.5
279.1
45.6
Liquefaction Projects
TrinidadNigeriaMalaysia LNG IIINWS IVRasgas IIQatargas **
2+33
1,243
1 & 2
6.73
6.84.24.71.5
20022003200320042002006
Train no. Capacity
YemenIran (max)NigeriaW. Niger DeltaAngolaAustralia (Darwin/NWS 5)Qatar (Ras Gas)Indonesia (Bontang I) Indonesia (Tangguth)Egypt***Venezuel a N. PariaVenezuel a (Jose)Norway
4+5
49
6.215843
4.84.7
36
1242
4.3
2005200620052006200520052005200520052005/062005/062005/062006
Capacity
Australia, GorgonRussia, SakhalinOmangasEgyptTrinidadRussia Black Sea
79.63.312
3.35.7
2006200620062006/072005/062006/07
Capacity
Spain, U.S.Spain, PortugalJapan, IndiaJapan, ChinaIndiaAsia, Europe
Buyers*
India, JapanJapanAtlantic BasinAtlantic BasinUS, EuropeU.S., ChinaItaly, IndiaChina, India
Japan/KoreaAtlantic basinUS, Carib., BrUS, Carib, BrUS, Europe
Buyers *
US West CoastJapan, Korea, China, TaiwanEurope Far EastAtlantic BasinAtlantic Basin-
Planned Train no.
Buyers* Proposed
Shipscommitted
Ships needed
Ships committed
Ships needed
Ships committed
Ships needed
63611-
63646-
0-1-00000---
6-9--4222---
Existing capacity(as of 15 April 2001)
Under construction
“Planned” Total high probability capacity in 2005
“Prospective”
Total maximum potential in 2005
* Contracted buyers or announced buyers** Qatargas debottleneck
*** 3 projects planned; Source: Team analysis
ESTIMATEUnderConstruction
0 5 10 15 20 25
Bontang
Arun
LNG I & II
Lumut
NWS
Adgas
Rasgas
Qatargas
Omangas
Arzew
Bethouia
Bethouia
Skikda
Marsa al Brega
NLNG
Atlantic
Kemai
Capacity (M tonnes)
Existing Liquefaction Capacity (M tonnes)
278.2
40.5
36.9
355.7
384.4
28.7
Regas Capacity 2000 - 06
Existing
Under construction
“Planned”
Total high probability capacity in 2005
“Prospective”
Total maximum potential in 2005
ESTIMATE
Everett expansion, MACove Point, MDElba Island, CAAndres, Dominican Rep.Dabhol, IndiaChita Midorihama, JapanTong Young, KoreaSines, PortugalIzmir, Turkey
2.57.23.33.66.94.08.31.82.9
200220022002200320022002200220042002
Capacity Start year
Atlantic LNGAtlantic LNG, NLNGAtlantic LNG, NLNGAtlantic LNGOmanAsian/Middle East suppliersAsian suppliersNigeriaQatar, Algeria
LNG supplier*Terminal
Huelva expansion, SpainSuape, BrasilDahej, IndiaHaziraCochin, IndiaBilbao, SpainOffshore GBS, ItalyShenzhen**, ChinaCartagena expansion, SpainValencia, SpainJapanBaja California
2.81.55.05.03.42.14.03.00.83.60.25.5
200320052004200420042003200520052003200520032005
Capacity Start year
NLNG 3Nigeria, Angola, Trinidad, VenezuelaRasGas IIINWS, OmanAtlantic LNG 2, 3RasGas IVNWS 4, MLNG IIINLNG 3NLNGAsian suppliesIndonesia, Pacific Rim
LNG supplier *Terminal
Hackberry, LAUS West CoastFlorida via BahamasAltamira, MexicoRecife, BrazilP ipovav, IndiaKakinada, India
5.75.05.05.02.13.42.5
2004200520042005200320052005
Capacity Start year
Atlantic BasinAustraliaAtlantic BasinAtlantic Basin Nigeria, Angola, Trinidad, VenezuelaMalaysia, AustraliaMalaysia, Indonesia
LNG supplier *Terminal
* Contracted suppliers or announced suppliers** Shenzen is the port; also referred to as the Guangdong terminal
Source: GIIGNL, GTI LNG Sourcebook 2001, Team anal ysis
ESTIMATE
Boston, MATractebel
435 MMcf/d
Cove Pt., MDWilliams Corp.1000 MMcf/d
Elba Island, GAEl Paso Corp.445 MMcf/d
Lake Charles, LACMS Energy700 MMcf/d
US Regas FacilitiesCurrent Capacity and Planned Expansion
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Cap
acity
(MM
cf/d
)
Everett Cove Pt. Elba island Lake Charles
Existing Capacity Planned Expansion
Short Term Henry Hub Price Differentials : $/MMBtu(Nov. 2001 - Feb 2002)
- 0.14
0.37
- 0.09 - 0.01
SOCAL
- 0.18
0.42
-0.14 - 0.07
MALIN0.000.00
0.08-0.01
Chicago City Gate
0.02
Trunkline Louisiana
0.00 -0.04 -0.08
Boston City Gate
0.44 0.46 0.48 0.53
New York City Gate
0.380.36
0.39 0.36
SONAT
0.02 - 0.04 -0.01 0.00
The Strength of the LNG Market• LNG has large delivery flexibility.• European Gas Pricing driven by underlying Value of Brent with
Bulk of trade based on long-term firm agreements.• Increasing tendency for Buyers to reduce their exposure open-
ended oil price movements. Price trends now tending towards “S”Curve with inflexion points at c. $12 -15 and $24 - 26/bbl, corresponding to European Border Prices of $2.00 - $4.50/MMBtu
• US gas prices have a floor price around $2.50/MMBtu created by :– Cost curve structure of gas production– Cost of steam coal equals $2 – 2.50/MMBtu gas.– Parity to oil (1 : 0.183)
• US LNG import covers only 1 % of US gas consumption.
Spanish Dash for Gas
Nuclear Power Decommissioning
Some European Gas Importers expect growth in gas demand to be met by LNG to a larger degree than previously
Gas Gains at Oil’s expense in Residential/Commercial Sectors
Strategic Trading Alliances between US and European Marketers
Less rigorous Destination Restrictions in European Gas Contracts
US Power - Still clings to coal
Dominance of coal means that small swingsin coal consumption creates large swings in gas
US recession hits large industrial gas consumers
Current large gas storage overhang - lower prices in US?
Competition from Europe for Excess Volume
U.S. “Push”
European “Pull”
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Cons
umpt
ion
(bcm
)
Belgium France Italy Spain Greece Turkey
Total European LNG Imports
European Gas Consumption by Selected Country
Source : U.S. Energy Information Agency
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
LNG Imports (bcm)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Belgium France Italy Spain Greece Turkey
European LNG imports
Source : U.S. Energy Information Agency
LNG New Ship Supply
7
11
15
8
1
5
2002 2003 2004 2005
FirmBG (2)MISC (2)Naviera Tapias (2)SCI/MOSK (1)NWS (1)Knutsen OAS (1)Tokyo Gas (1)Tokyo Electric (1)Shell (1)Lino Kaiun (1)BP (1)Elcano (1)
SpeculativeGolar (2)Exmar (1)Bergesen (1)
AP Møller (1)
FirmGolar LNG (1)Bergesen (2)Exmar (2)Shell (2)BP (2)MISC (1)Naviera Tapias (1)Nigeria LNG (1)
SpeculativeGolar (1)
FirmExmar (1)MISC (1)Nigeria LNG (2)Brunei Gas Carriers (1)Greenfield Shipping (1BP (1)
FirmMISC (2)Exmar (2)Shell (1)SCI/MOSK (1)Knutsen OAS (1)Qatargas Shipping (1)
7
12
20
8
Source:Platou; Clarkson; Shipping reports; Press clippings
ESTIMATE
Firm contracted
Firm speculative
Free Yard Capacity - Major Yards
Yard Capacity per year (ships) Earliest DeliveryDaewoo 6 Q1 2005Hyundai 4 Q2 2005 (Moss)Samsung 4 Nov. 2004Kawasaki 3 Mid 2005Mitsubishi 2.5 1st. Half 2005Mitsui 1.5 1st Half 2005Hanjin 2 Q1 2005
Total Fleet(By Year Built)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Num
ber B
uilt
Pre
197
1
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2003
2005
Year Built
<50,000cm 50 - 124,999cm >125000
Newbuilds
Newbuilds
Operators by Fleet Capacity
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
MARIT
IMA D
EL NORTE C.S
.T.
LOUIS DREYFUS
AP MOL LER
ELCANO
Kline
KNUTSENTAPIA
S
CERES HEL
LENICMARATHON
SNAMGOA
DENHOLM
KOREA LINE
MARPETROL/KNUT SEN
DORCHESTER MARITIM
ELEIF H
OEGHAL SOC
K LINE
HANJINBERGESEN
SNTM-HYPROC
HMMSK S
HIPPINGEX
MARPRONAV BP
NYKGOLAR L
NGSTASCO
MISC
MOL
Cap
acity
(cm
)
Source : LNG Shipping Solutions
Old WorldLong Term Bilateral trades with
shipping capacity constraining trades
Shipping constraints seen as bottleneck linking upstream expansion to promising new markets
New WorldEntering Dynamic Growth Period bringing
greater geographic diversity of Buyers and Sellers
More flexible Innovative sales arrangements
Orders now placed for uncommitted capacity
Trading patterns become less static with supply contracts tailored to a number of small buyers in a spread of locations
Large Buyers – to buy from various sources on fob basis using due to emerging destination flexibility
Shipping Moves to Centre Stage
Changing LNG industry Structure
Historic
• Supply Push• E & P Dominated• Long-term contracts• Dedicated ships and routees• Crude Oil index supplies • High costs
Recent/Future
• Downstream market pull• End-market influence• Emerging Merchant deals• More flexible shipping options• Changing mix of supplies• Cost reductions
Possible Changes in the LNG Shipping Chain
• Increase of Supply Sources and Markets (Variety of routes and flexibility of destinations)
• Increase in non-traditional trading– Combination of Short and Long term contracts– Spot, swaps and arbitrage trading
• Increase in Buyers involvement in LNG trades (FOB trading)
• Increase in non-dedicated vessels leading to LNG trading Opportunities
Golar LNG Ltd.
HHI Mark III Technigaz MembraneDelivery : October 2004
Total Capacity : 140,000sm3