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LNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim, Director and CEO, Golar LNG Ltd.

TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

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Page 1: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

LNG NORTH AMERICA

HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002

Overview of the market for LNG VesselsBy

Tor Olav Troim, Director and CEO, Golar LNG Ltd.

Page 2: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

Golar LNG Ltd.

• World’s largest independent LNG shipowner (10 ships)

• Present in both Atlantic and Pacific basin

• Listed on Oslo stock exchange, will be listed in US within Q1 2002

• Actively Pursuing additional activities in LNG Trading and downstream LNG chain

Page 3: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

The Golar Strategy

• To be a shipowner that charters out LNG tonnage for various periods to the market in general.

• To be an LNG trader that buys LNG FOB from various sources either alone or with a partner, and sells gas to LNG customers all over the world. As part of the trading activity, Golar will consider investing in other parts of the LNG chain, like liquefaction or regasification capacity.

• To be an LNG development / construction company that invests in or develops new concepts like floating regas or liquefaction units.

Page 4: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

Global LNG Trade Flows (Long Term)

Alaska

Algeria

Australia

Everett

Lake Charles India

Atlantic Basin

33 vessels

Asia/Pacific Basin

88 vessels

Import Terminal

Export Terminal

Turkey

TaiwanJapan

U.A.E./

Qatar/OmanTrinidad & Tobago Nigeria

Indonesia/Malaysia/Brunei

Page 5: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

LNG Imports in 2000Milliontonnes

% Changefrom 1999

Japan 53.32 5Korea 14.31 12Taiwan 4.37 11Asia 72 7France 8.58 16Spain 6.82 26Belgium 3.11 6Turkey 3.213 47Italy 2.63 27Greece 0.38Europe 24.74 24USA 4.82 40Puerto Rico 0.26Americas 5.08 47TOTAL 101.81 12

Sources of LNG Imports in 2000Milliontonnes

% Changeform 1999

Indonesia 26.73 -6Malaysia 15.03 2Australia 7.18 -1Brunei 6.58 8Asia Pacific 55.53 -2Algeria 9.75 3Abu Dhabi 5.00 -2Qatar 10.24 62Libya 0.58 -17Nigeria 4.43 2648Oman 2.04 34Mideast/Africa 42.04 88Trinidad 2.90 3USA (Alaska) 1.34 49TOTAL 4.24 12

Summary of Global LNG Trade

Source for both tables : WGI

Page 6: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

129.6

26.9

77

233.5

279.1

45.6

Liquefaction Projects

TrinidadNigeriaMalaysia LNG IIINWS IVRasgas IIQatargas **

2+33

1,243

1 & 2

6.73

6.84.24.71.5

20022003200320042002006

Train no. Capacity

YemenIran (max)NigeriaW. Niger DeltaAngolaAustralia (Darwin/NWS 5)Qatar (Ras Gas)Indonesia (Bontang I) Indonesia (Tangguth)Egypt***Venezuel a N. PariaVenezuel a (Jose)Norway

4+5

49

6.215843

4.84.7

36

1242

4.3

2005200620052006200520052005200520052005/062005/062005/062006

Capacity

Australia, GorgonRussia, SakhalinOmangasEgyptTrinidadRussia Black Sea

79.63.312

3.35.7

2006200620062006/072005/062006/07

Capacity

Spain, U.S.Spain, PortugalJapan, IndiaJapan, ChinaIndiaAsia, Europe

Buyers*

India, JapanJapanAtlantic BasinAtlantic BasinUS, EuropeU.S., ChinaItaly, IndiaChina, India

Japan/KoreaAtlantic basinUS, Carib., BrUS, Carib, BrUS, Europe

Buyers *

US West CoastJapan, Korea, China, TaiwanEurope Far EastAtlantic BasinAtlantic Basin-

Planned Train no.

Buyers* Proposed

Shipscommitted

Ships needed

Ships committed

Ships needed

Ships committed

Ships needed

63611-

63646-

0-1-00000---

6-9--4222---

Existing capacity(as of 15 April 2001)

Under construction

“Planned” Total high probability capacity in 2005

“Prospective”

Total maximum potential in 2005

* Contracted buyers or announced buyers** Qatargas debottleneck

*** 3 projects planned; Source: Team analysis

ESTIMATEUnderConstruction

Page 7: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

0 5 10 15 20 25

Bontang

Arun

LNG I & II

Lumut

NWS

Adgas

Rasgas

Qatargas

Omangas

Arzew

Bethouia

Bethouia

Skikda

Marsa al Brega

NLNG

Atlantic

Kemai

Capacity (M tonnes)

Existing Liquefaction Capacity (M tonnes)

Page 8: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

278.2

40.5

36.9

355.7

384.4

28.7

Regas Capacity 2000 - 06

Existing

Under construction

“Planned”

Total high probability capacity in 2005

“Prospective”

Total maximum potential in 2005

ESTIMATE

Everett expansion, MACove Point, MDElba Island, CAAndres, Dominican Rep.Dabhol, IndiaChita Midorihama, JapanTong Young, KoreaSines, PortugalIzmir, Turkey

2.57.23.33.66.94.08.31.82.9

200220022002200320022002200220042002

Capacity Start year

Atlantic LNGAtlantic LNG, NLNGAtlantic LNG, NLNGAtlantic LNGOmanAsian/Middle East suppliersAsian suppliersNigeriaQatar, Algeria

LNG supplier*Terminal

Huelva expansion, SpainSuape, BrasilDahej, IndiaHaziraCochin, IndiaBilbao, SpainOffshore GBS, ItalyShenzhen**, ChinaCartagena expansion, SpainValencia, SpainJapanBaja California

2.81.55.05.03.42.14.03.00.83.60.25.5

200320052004200420042003200520052003200520032005

Capacity Start year

NLNG 3Nigeria, Angola, Trinidad, VenezuelaRasGas IIINWS, OmanAtlantic LNG 2, 3RasGas IVNWS 4, MLNG IIINLNG 3NLNGAsian suppliesIndonesia, Pacific Rim

LNG supplier *Terminal

Hackberry, LAUS West CoastFlorida via BahamasAltamira, MexicoRecife, BrazilP ipovav, IndiaKakinada, India

5.75.05.05.02.13.42.5

2004200520042005200320052005

Capacity Start year

Atlantic BasinAustraliaAtlantic BasinAtlantic Basin Nigeria, Angola, Trinidad, VenezuelaMalaysia, AustraliaMalaysia, Indonesia

LNG supplier *Terminal

* Contracted suppliers or announced suppliers** Shenzen is the port; also referred to as the Guangdong terminal

Source: GIIGNL, GTI LNG Sourcebook 2001, Team anal ysis

ESTIMATE

Page 9: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

Boston, MATractebel

435 MMcf/d

Cove Pt., MDWilliams Corp.1000 MMcf/d

Elba Island, GAEl Paso Corp.445 MMcf/d

Lake Charles, LACMS Energy700 MMcf/d

US Regas FacilitiesCurrent Capacity and Planned Expansion

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Cap

acity

(MM

cf/d

)

Everett Cove Pt. Elba island Lake Charles

Existing Capacity Planned Expansion

Page 10: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

Short Term Henry Hub Price Differentials : $/MMBtu(Nov. 2001 - Feb 2002)

- 0.14

0.37

- 0.09 - 0.01

SOCAL

- 0.18

0.42

-0.14 - 0.07

MALIN0.000.00

0.08-0.01

Chicago City Gate

0.02

Trunkline Louisiana

0.00 -0.04 -0.08

Boston City Gate

0.44 0.46 0.48 0.53

New York City Gate

0.380.36

0.39 0.36

SONAT

0.02 - 0.04 -0.01 0.00

Page 11: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

The Strength of the LNG Market• LNG has large delivery flexibility.• European Gas Pricing driven by underlying Value of Brent with

Bulk of trade based on long-term firm agreements.• Increasing tendency for Buyers to reduce their exposure open-

ended oil price movements. Price trends now tending towards “S”Curve with inflexion points at c. $12 -15 and $24 - 26/bbl, corresponding to European Border Prices of $2.00 - $4.50/MMBtu

• US gas prices have a floor price around $2.50/MMBtu created by :– Cost curve structure of gas production– Cost of steam coal equals $2 – 2.50/MMBtu gas.– Parity to oil (1 : 0.183)

• US LNG import covers only 1 % of US gas consumption.

Page 12: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

Spanish Dash for Gas

Nuclear Power Decommissioning

Some European Gas Importers expect growth in gas demand to be met by LNG to a larger degree than previously

Gas Gains at Oil’s expense in Residential/Commercial Sectors

Strategic Trading Alliances between US and European Marketers

Less rigorous Destination Restrictions in European Gas Contracts

US Power - Still clings to coal

Dominance of coal means that small swingsin coal consumption creates large swings in gas

US recession hits large industrial gas consumers

Current large gas storage overhang - lower prices in US?

Competition from Europe for Excess Volume

U.S. “Push”

European “Pull”

Page 13: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Cons

umpt

ion

(bcm

)

Belgium France Italy Spain Greece Turkey

Total European LNG Imports

European Gas Consumption by Selected Country

Source : U.S. Energy Information Agency

Page 14: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

LNG Imports (bcm)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Belgium France Italy Spain Greece Turkey

European LNG imports

Source : U.S. Energy Information Agency

Page 15: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

LNG New Ship Supply

7

11

15

8

1

5

2002 2003 2004 2005

FirmBG (2)MISC (2)Naviera Tapias (2)SCI/MOSK (1)NWS (1)Knutsen OAS (1)Tokyo Gas (1)Tokyo Electric (1)Shell (1)Lino Kaiun (1)BP (1)Elcano (1)

SpeculativeGolar (2)Exmar (1)Bergesen (1)

AP Møller (1)

FirmGolar LNG (1)Bergesen (2)Exmar (2)Shell (2)BP (2)MISC (1)Naviera Tapias (1)Nigeria LNG (1)

SpeculativeGolar (1)

FirmExmar (1)MISC (1)Nigeria LNG (2)Brunei Gas Carriers (1)Greenfield Shipping (1BP (1)

FirmMISC (2)Exmar (2)Shell (1)SCI/MOSK (1)Knutsen OAS (1)Qatargas Shipping (1)

7

12

20

8

Source:Platou; Clarkson; Shipping reports; Press clippings

ESTIMATE

Firm contracted

Firm speculative

Page 16: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

Free Yard Capacity - Major Yards

Yard Capacity per year (ships) Earliest DeliveryDaewoo 6 Q1 2005Hyundai 4 Q2 2005 (Moss)Samsung 4 Nov. 2004Kawasaki 3 Mid 2005Mitsubishi 2.5 1st. Half 2005Mitsui 1.5 1st Half 2005Hanjin 2 Q1 2005

Page 17: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

Total Fleet(By Year Built)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Num

ber B

uilt

Pre

197

1

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2003

2005

Year Built

<50,000cm 50 - 124,999cm >125000

Newbuilds

Newbuilds

Page 18: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

Operators by Fleet Capacity

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

MARIT

IMA D

EL NORTE C.S

.T.

LOUIS DREYFUS

AP MOL LER

ELCANO

Kline

KNUTSENTAPIA

S

CERES HEL

LENICMARATHON

SNAMGOA

DENHOLM

KOREA LINE

MARPETROL/KNUT SEN

DORCHESTER MARITIM

ELEIF H

OEGHAL SOC

K LINE

HANJINBERGESEN

SNTM-HYPROC

HMMSK S

HIPPINGEX

MARPRONAV BP

NYKGOLAR L

NGSTASCO

MISC

MOL

Cap

acity

(cm

)

Source : LNG Shipping Solutions

Page 19: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

Old WorldLong Term Bilateral trades with

shipping capacity constraining trades

Shipping constraints seen as bottleneck linking upstream expansion to promising new markets

New WorldEntering Dynamic Growth Period bringing

greater geographic diversity of Buyers and Sellers

More flexible Innovative sales arrangements

Orders now placed for uncommitted capacity

Trading patterns become less static with supply contracts tailored to a number of small buyers in a spread of locations

Large Buyers – to buy from various sources on fob basis using due to emerging destination flexibility

Shipping Moves to Centre Stage

Page 20: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

Changing LNG industry Structure

Historic

• Supply Push• E & P Dominated• Long-term contracts• Dedicated ships and routees• Crude Oil index supplies • High costs

Recent/Future

• Downstream market pull• End-market influence• Emerging Merchant deals• More flexible shipping options• Changing mix of supplies• Cost reductions

Page 21: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

Possible Changes in the LNG Shipping Chain

• Increase of Supply Sources and Markets (Variety of routes and flexibility of destinations)

• Increase in non-traditional trading– Combination of Short and Long term contracts– Spot, swaps and arbitrage trading

• Increase in Buyers involvement in LNG trades (FOB trading)

• Increase in non-dedicated vessels leading to LNG trading Opportunities

Page 22: TOT LNG North America - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866928/105744.pdfLNG NORTH AMERICA HOUSTON - MARCH 21 - 22, 2002 Overview of the market for LNG Vessels By Tor Olav Troim,

Golar LNG Ltd.

HHI Mark III Technigaz MembraneDelivery : October 2004

Total Capacity : 140,000sm3