Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 1/45 Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF Renate Hagedorn European

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 1/45

Operational and Research Activities

at ECMWF

Renate Hagedorn European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts


ECMWF’s…

…background and structure

…research activities Integrated Forecast System (IFS)

…operational activities production, delivery, archiving


Background

• Convention establishing ECMWF entered in force on 1st Nov 1975, having been ratified by the following 13 Member states:

• Recognition of importance and potential to improve medium-range weather forecasts with benefits to the European economy Protection and safety of population Development of meteorology in Europe / post university training Development of European industry in the field of data-processing

• Recognition that resources are needed on a scale exceeding those normally practicable at national level

Belgium Germany France Yugoslavia Austria Finland United Kingdom

Denmark Spain Ireland Netherlands Switzerland Sweden


Today……ECMWF is an independent international organization, supported by 18 member states

13 co-operating states

Iceland

CzechRepublic

Slovenia

Romania

Serbia

Hungary

Croatia

Estonia

Lithuania

Morocco

Co-operating agreements:

Montenegro

Slovakia

Latvia


New Convention

• Amendments to the ECMWF Convention were unanimously adopted by

Council at its 62nd extraordinary session on 22 April 2005

• Finalization of the ratification process is expected by the end of 2009

• The adopted amendments concern mainly:

allowing new Member States to join

enlarging ECMWF’s mission to environmental monitoring

re-defining some decision making processes (voting rights)

widening the possibilities for externally funded projects (e.g. EU)

extending official languages to all official languages in Member States

(on a request-and-pay basis)


Objectives

• Operational forecasting up to 15 days ahead (including waves)

• R & D activities in forecast modelling

• Data archiving and related services

• Operational forecasts for the coming month and season

• Advanced NWP training

• Provision of supercomputer resources

• Assistance to WMO programmes

• Management of Regional Meteorological Data Communications

Network (RMDCN)


Germany 20.20%

Denmark1.87%

Belgium2.71%

United Kingdom16.43%

Turkey 2.38%

Sweden 2.66%

Finland 1.42%

Switzerland 2.89%Portugal1.29%

Austria 2.16%

Norway 2.13%

Netherlands 4.61%

Italy12.66%

Ireland1.23%

Greece1.74%

France 15.46%

Spain 7.95%Main Revenue 2009

Member States’contributions £35,593,300

Co-operating States’contributions £847,400

Other Revenue £1,169,500

Total £37,610,200

GNI Scale 2009–2011

Luxembourg0.23%

Main Expenditure 2009Staff £14,450,100

Leaving Allowances& Pensions £2,965,200

ComputerExpenditure £15,690,600

Buildings £3,634,300

Supplies £870,000

Total £37,610,200

ECMWF Budget 2009


Organizational structure

COUNCIL18 Member States

DIRECTORDominique Marbouty

(France) (230)

Meteorological Division

Erik Andersson(Sweden) (42)

Computer DivisionIsabella Weger

(Austria) (65)

OperationsWalter Zwieflhofer

(Austria) (111)

ResearchPhilippe Bougeault

(France) (90)

AdministrationUte Dahremöller

(Germany) (25)

Data DivisionJean-Noel Thepaut

(France) (37)

Model DivisionMartin Miller

(UK) (24)

Probabilistic Forecastingand Diagnostics Division

Tim Palmer(UK) (19)

FinanceCommittee7 Members

Technical AdvisoryCommittee18 Members

Scientific AdvisoryCommittee12 Members

Advisory Committee of Co-operating States

12 Members

Advisory Committee on Data Policy

8-31 Members

Policy AdvisoryCommittee

7-18 Members


Principal Goal

• Maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global, medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort on early warnings of severe weather events.


Principal Goal


Principal Goal

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

lead

(d)

for

RP

SS

<0.

297

monthly scores (12 month MA) for N.-Hem. (20N-90N)

t850hPa; t ACC-HR=0.6 = 7.2d

Ens.

High Res.

Control


Complimentary Goals

• In addition to the principal goal of maintaining the current, rapid rate of improvements, the complimentary goals are:

To improve the quality and scope of monthly and seasonal-to-interannual forecasts

To enhance support to Member States national forecasting activities by providing suitable boundary conditions for limited-area models

To deliver real-time analysis and forecasts of atmospheric composition

To carry out climate monitoring through regular re-analyses of the Earth-system

To contribute towards the optimization of the Global Observing System


Numerical Weather Prediction

• The behaviour of the atmosphere is governed by a set of physical laws

• Equations cannot be solved analytically, numerical methods are needed

• Additionally, knowledge of initial conditions of system necessary

• Incomplete picture from observations can be completed by data assimilation

• Interactions between atmosphere and land/ocean important


Strategy

• Development of a suitably comprehensive Earth-system assimilation capability to make best use of all available data

• Development of a suitably comprehensive and integrated high-resolution Earth-system modelling facility

• Development of the methodology of ensemble forecasting for medium-range and seasonal forecasting

• Operational delivery of an enhanced range of meteorological and associated products

• Maintenance and extension of the Centre’s scientific and technical collaborations


Research Department

Data DivisionJean-Noel Thepaut

(France) (36)

Model DivisionMartin Miller

(UK) (26)

Probabilistic Forecasting& Diagnostics Division

Tim Palmer(UK) (18)

Data AssimilationLars Isaksen

(Denmark) (15)

Satellite DataPeter Bauer(France) (14)

Re-Analysis ProjectDick Dee

(Netherlands) (3)

Predictability & Diagnostics

Tim Palmer(UK) (7)

Seasonal ForecastFranco Molteni

(Italy) (9)Numerical Aspects

Agathe Untch(Germany) (7)

Ocean WavesPeter Janssen

(Netherlands) (3)

Physical AspectsAnton Beljaars

(Netherlands) (12)


ECMWF’s operational analysis and forecasting system

The comprehensive earth-system model developed at ECMWF forms the basis for all the data assimilation and forecasting activities. All the main applications required are available through one integrated computer software system (a set of computer programs written in Fortran) called the

Integrated Forecast System or IFS

• Numerical scheme: TL799L91 (799 waves around a great circle on the globe, 91 levels 0-80 km) semi-Lagrangian formulation 1,630,000,000,000,000 computations required for each 10-day forecast

• Time step: 12 minutes

• Prognostic variables: wind, temperature, humidity, cloud fraction and water/ice content, pressure at surface grid-points, ozone

• Grid: Gaussian grid for physical processes, ~25 km, 76,757,590 grid points


Deterministic model grid (T799)


EPS model grid (T399)


The wave model

• Coupled ocean wave model (WAM cycle4)

2 versions: global and regional (European Shelf & Mediterranean)

numerical scheme: irregular lat/lon grid, 40 km spacing; spectrum with 30 frequencies and 24 directions

coupling: wind forcing of waves every 15 minutes, two way interaction of winds and waves, sea state dep. drag coefficient

extreme sea state forecasts: freak waves

wave model forecast results can be used as a tool to diagnose problems in the atmospheric model

Numerical Methods and Adiabatic Formulation of Models

30 March - 3 April 2009


Physical aspects, included in IFS

• Orography (terrain height and sub-grid-scale characteristics) • Four surface and sub-surface levels (allowing for vegetation cover, gravitational drainage, capillarity exchange, surface / sub-surface runoff)• Stratiform and convective precipitation• Carbon dioxide (345 ppmv fixed), aerosol, ozone• Solar angle• Diffusion • Ground & sea roughness • Ground and sea-surface temperature • Ground humidity• Snow-fall, snow-cover and snow melt • Radiation (incoming short-wave and out-going long-wave)• Friction (at surface and in free atmosphere)• Sub-grid-scale orographic drag • Gravity waves and blocking effects • Evaporation, sensible and latent heat flux

Parameterization of Diabatic Processes

11 – 21 May 2009


Starting a forecast: The initial conditions


Data Assimilation

• Observations measure the current state, but provide an incomplete picture

Observations made at irregularly spaced points, often with large gaps

Observations made at various times, not all at ‘analysis time’

Observations have errors

Many observations not directly of model variables

• The forecast model can be used to process the observations and produce a more complete picture (data assimilation)

start with previous analysis

use model to make short-range forecast for current analysis time

correct this ‘background’ state using the new observations


Observations

“True” state of the atmosphere

Model vari

able

s, e

.g.

tem

pera

ture

00 UTC 5 May

Analysis

Background Analysis

12 UTC 5 May

00 UTC 6 May

12 UTC 6 May

12-h

our fo

reca

st

Data Assimilation

Every 12 hours ~ 60 million observations are processed to correct the 8 million numbers

that define the model’s virtual atmosphere


Data Assimilation

• Observations measure the current state, but provide an incomplete picture

Observations made at irregularly spaced points, often with large gaps

Observations made at various times, not all at ‘analysis time’

Observations have errors

Many observations not directly of model variables

• The forecast model can be used to process the observations and produce a more complete picture (data assimilation)

start with previous analysis

use model to make short-range forecast for current analysis time

correct this ‘background’ state using the new observations

• The forecast model is very sensitive to small differences in initial conditions

accurate analysis crucial for accurate forecast

EPS used to represent the remaining analysis uncertainty

Data Assimilation and Use of Satellite Data:

20 - 29 April 2009


What is an ensemble forecast?

Forecast time

Tem

pera

ture

Complete description of weather prediction in terms of aProbability Density Function (PDF)

Initial condition Forecast


Flow dependence of forecast errors

If the forecasts are coherent (small spread) the atmosphere is in a more

predictable state than if the forecasts diverge (large spread)

aa

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30

28

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12

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Forecast day

UK

Control Analysis Ensemble

ECMWF ensemble forecast - Air temperatureDate: 26/06/1994 London Lat: 51.5 Long: 0

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28

26

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14

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Forecast day

UK

Control Analysis Ensemble

ECMWF ensemble forecast - Air temperatureDate: 26/06/1995 London Lat: 51.5 Long: 0

26th June 1995 26th June 1994


ECMWF’s Ensemble Prediction Systems

• Account for initial uncertainties by running ensemble of forecasts from slightly different initial conditions singular vector approach to sample perturbations

• Model uncertainties are represented by “stochastic physics”

• Medium-range VarEPS (15-day lead) runs twice daily (00 and 12 UTC) day 0-10: TL399L62 (0.45°, ~50km), 50+1 members

day 9-15: TL255L62 (0.7°, ~80km), 50+1 members

• Extended time-range EPS systems: monthly and seasonal forecasts coupled atmosphere-ocean model (IFS & HOPE) monthly forecast (4 weeks lead) runs once a week seasonal forecast (6 months lead) runs once a month

see next eight days


Operations Department

Computer OperationsSylvia Baylis

(UK) (32)

Network and Computer SecurityRémy Giraud(France) (12)

Systems SoftwareNeil Storer

(UK) (8)

Meteorological DivisionErik Andersson(Sweden) (37)

Meteorological ApplicationsAlfred Hofstadler

(Austria) (9)

Data & ServicesBaudouin Raoult

(France) (8)

Meteorological OperationsDavid Richardson

(UK) (13)

GraphicsStefan Siemen(Germany) (6)User Support

Umberto Modigliani(Italy) (6)

Computer DivisionIsabella Weger(Austria) (68)

Servers & DesktopsRichard Fisker(Denmark) (9)


Current Computer Configuration


RMDCN Network


User support for special projects

http://www.ecmwf.int/about/computer_access_registration/Special_Projects.html


ECMWF model suites

• Deterministic high-resolution global atmospheric model TL799 91 levels; range=10 days

• Medium-range ensemble prediction system TL399 / TL255 62 levels; range=15 days

control + 50 perturbed members

• Monthly forecast system TL255 62 level (atm.), 1.4 º x 0.3-1.4º, 29 vertical levels (ocean)

51-member ensemble; range=32 days

• Seasonal forecast system TL159 62 level (atm.), 1.4 º x 0.3-1.4º, 29 vertical levels (ocean)

41-member ensemble; range=6 months


Main operational suites


Data Dissemination


The ECMWF archive

• The largest NWP archive worldwide

• Built since ECMWF operations started in 1979

• Holds more than 5 petabytes today

• 6 terabytes added daily

• Contains: All data used

All analyses

All forecasts

Reanalyses

• Fully accessible on-line to Member States users


MARS


ECMWF Data Server

A new service that gives researchers immediate and free access to datasets from ECMWF.

• DEMETER• ERA-40• ERA-15• ENACT• ENSEMBLES / GEMS- Monthly and daily data- Select area- GRIB or NetCDF- Plotting facility


Meteorological Operations

• Daily report (data and forecast monitoring, unusual events,…)

• Forecast verification

• Development of new products (EFI, tropical cyclones,…)

• Data and satellite monitoring

• User guides / meetings


Met Ops daily report


Monitoring of model performance

Mean calculation method: standardDate: 20070901 00UTC to 20081130 00UTC

N.hem Lat 20.0 to 90.0 Lon -180.0 to 180.0Anomaly correlation forecast

500hPa GeopotentialMean curves

1 2 3 4 5 6Forecast Day

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ec 2008

ec 2007

mo 2008

mo 2007

ncep 2008

ncep 2007


Product Development


Forecast Products: 1979

1 forecast (200 km resolution) issued 5 days a week


Forecast Products: 2009

wide range of forecast products from deterministic high resolution forecast to probabilistic EPS products

www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts


Products for end users


More Information…

Documents

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 1/45 Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF Renate Hagedorn European