A.Bychenko

Transforming Ukrainian Society

Transforming Ukrainian Society: Public Opinion on Current

Events, International Affairs and the War in Donbas

Andrii Bychenko, Razumkov Centre

(Kyiv, Ukraine)

Ukraine 2016

Ukraine Identification 1991

Ukraine Identification 2002

Ukraine Identification Today

Ukraine & Occupied Areas Today

Are things in Ukraine generally going in the right

direction or the wrong direction?

13,6%

70,9%

15,5%

In the right direction

In the wrong direction

Do not know

Are things in Ukraine generally going in the right

direction or the wrong direction?, %

A

pri

l 2

00

4

Ju

ne

20

05

No

vem

ber

20

05

Sep

tem

ber

20

07

Oct

ob

er 2

00

9

Ap

ril

20

10

Ma

y 2

011

Au

gu

st 2

01

2

Ma

y 2

01

3

Oct

ob

er 2

01

3

Ma

rch

20

14

Ma

rch

20

15

Ma

y 2

01

6

In the right

direction 20,3 42,6 18,3 15,2 6,9 35,1 15,2 19,7 15,4 15,4 32,3 14,3 13,6

In the wrong

direction 55,7 30,6 59,1 67,8 81,1 34,5 63,4 57,6 65,9 65,4 40,7 67,6 70,9

Do not know / No

answer 24,0 26,8 22,5 17,1 12,0 30,4 21,4 22,6 18,7 19,2 27,0 18,1 15,5

Do you support activities of the following authorities

and public institutions? (In percent)

Fully

support

Support

some

activities

Do not

support

Do not

know

President of Ukraine 5,9 29,9 56,3 7,8

Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) of

Ukraine 1,8 24,9 65,7 7,6

Government of Ukraine 2,5 24,9 60,9 11,7

National Bank of Ukraine 2,4 16,7 67,2 13,7

Level of support of Yuschenko, Yanukovich and

Poroshenko during the first two years

-80,0%

-60,0%

-40,0%

-20,0%

0,0%

20,0%

40,0%

60,0%

Start 3 months 6 months 9 months 12 months 15 month 18 months 21 months 24 months

Yuschenko Yanukovich Poroshenko

To what extent do you trust the following social institutions?

(in percent)

Do not

trust at

all

Tend

not to

trust

Tend

to trust

Fully

trust

Difficult

to say

The balance

of trust and

distrust*

Volunteer organizations 7.0 11.9 45.0 23.5 12.6 49.6

Church 10.7 13.4 39.6 22.0 14.2 37.5

Armed Forces of Ukraine 14.5 18.2 42.1 15.5 9.7 24.9

Volunteer defense detachments 11.6 15.3 33.1 14.2 25.7 20.4

National Guard of Ukraine 15.0 18.1 38.5 14.2 14.2 19.6

NGO’s 15.0 19.7 37.4 8.4 19.4 11.1

Ukrainian media 17.5 25.6 39.3 7.0 10.5 3.2

Police 17.4 24.5 34.2 6.5 17.5 -1.2

Local Authorities 23.0 29.5 32.5 5.4 9.7 -14.6

Ombudsman 21.4 20.3 19.4 3.6 35.3 -18.7

Western media 23.5 24.3 23.8 3.6 24.7 -20.4

Security Service of Ukraine 26.6 28.6 23.3 5.1 16.5 -26.8

National Anticorruption Bureau 32.2 27.1 12.5 2.0 26.1 -44.8

President of Ukraine 41.5 30.9 16.9 3.1 7.7 -52.4

Banks 44.2 28.2 12.9 2.9 11.8 -56.6

Government of Ukraine 46.5 32.0 11.2 1.7 8.7 -65.6

Political Parties 43.9 34.4 9.0 0.7 12.0 -68.6

Office of the Prosecutor General 51.4 28.8 7.9 2.2 9.7 -70.1

Parliament of Ukraine 48.9 34.3 9.8 1.2 5.7 -72.2

Courts 57.0 26.5 5.3 1.7 9.6 -76.5

Please rate the course of reforms in Ukraine and the government's

actions in various areas on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is no or

almost no reforms, and 10 is most successful reforms

Areas of reform AVERAGE

RATING

March

2015

AVERAGE

RATING

May 2016

Promoting Ukraine in the world 4.00 4.11

Reform of the law enforcement system 2.60 3.72

National security and defence reform 2.95 3.62

Decentralisation and local government reform 2.53 3.01

Renewal of the government and lustration 2.90 2.77

Energy independence programme and energy sector reform 2.45 2.65

Public administration reform 2.44 2.55

Education reform 2.35 2.55

Tax reform 2.38 2.44

Deregulation and business development 2.27 2.39

Judicial reform 2.39 2.35

Reform of public property management 2.21 2.35

Agricultural reform 2.15 2.29

Financial sector reform 2.12 2.26

Healthcare reform 2.23 2.24

Which direction of foreign policy should be a priority

for Ukraine?

49,8%

5,4%

10,4%

7,7%

7,8%

18,9%

Relations with the European Union countries

With the U.S.

With Russia

With other CIS countries

With other countries

Do not know

Which direction of foreign policy should be a priority

for Ukraine? (in percent)

Feb

2011

Nov

2012

Dec

2013

March

2014

April

2014

March

2015

April

2016

Relations with the

European Union

countries

35,6 40,8 43,4 46,0 52,5 47,7 49,8

With the U.S. 0,9 1,2 1,0 2,1 1,1 6,0 5,4

With Russia 40,4 35,3 34,0 24,1 16,6 10,0 10,4

With other CIS

countries 7,2 4,8 5,7 5,7 6,8 6,7 7,7

With other countries 3,6 3,6 2,7 4,4 4,8 9,1 7,8

Do not know 12,3 14,3 13,2 17,7 18,1 20,5 18,9

For each organisation or state, please tell me how

positive or negative your attitude is:

(in percent)

Absolutely

positive

Mostly

positive

Mostly

negative

Absolutely

negative

Do

not

know

about

it

Do

not

know

Balance

European Union 16.3 45.7 14.3 8.2 0.3 15.2 39.5

Customs Union 5.7 21.0 22.5 28.8 0.7 21.4 -24.6

International

Monetary

Fund (IMF)

9.6 29.4 20.2 14.4 1.4 24.8 4.4

NATO 15.0 30.4 18.2 18.4 0.3 17.7 8.8

Russia 5.8 16.4 19.6 46.4 0.5 11.2 -43.8

USA 14.8 40.9 19.4 10.0 0.0 14.9 26.3

Do you think Ukraine should join the European Union?

59,4%

28,5%

12,1%

Yes No Do not know

Do you think Ukraine should join the European Union?

(In percent)

Dec 2009 Dec 2011 Aug

2012

Dec

2013

May

2014

March

2015

May

2016

Yes 42,8 46,0 42,1 48,0 53,0 52,7 59,4

No 32,8 32,9 38,6 35,9 35,5 29,6 28,5

Difficult

to say 24,3 21,1 19,3 16,1 11,6 17,7 12,1

If on Sunday there was a referendum on joining NATO,

how would you vote?

47,8%

34,3%

17,9%

For joining NATO

Against joining NATO

Do not know

With which opinions and assessments

about the situation in Eastern Ukraine do

you agree the most?

(Answers to follow on next two slides)

Opinion on the DPR and LPR

62,2%

20,6%

17,1%

DPR and LPR are terrorist organisations that have no rightto represent the people of these areas

DPR and LPR are representatives of the people of theseareas

Do not know

Opinion on Russia's position in the conflict in Eastern

Ukraine

70,3%

11,9%

17,8%

Russia is an aggressor country, a party to theconflict

Russia is not involved in the events inEastern Ukraine, and is not a party to theconflict

Do you support assignment of special status to

Donbas?

23,8%

56,4%

19,8%

Support Do not support Do not know

Do you support elections on occupied areas of Donbas

before establishing control of Ukrainian Authorities?

23,0%

52,5%

24,4%

Support Do not support Do not know

Do you support amnesty to participants of separatist

detachment who doesn’t commit a serious crime?

31,2%

42,3%

26,6%

Support Do not support Do not know

The ways to resolve the conflict in Eastern Ukraine

19,8%

47,7%

32,4%

Special status for Donbas, amnesty to participants of separatist detachments who doesn’t commit serious crimes, elections before establishing Ukrainian Authority

Official acceptance this area as occupied and thir blockade untill establishingUkrainian Authority

Do not know

Do you support the severance of any economic relations between

Ukraine and the areas of DPR and LPR (including social benefits,

energy supply, coal procurement, etc.) until Ukraine fully regains

control over these areas?

45,9%

33,3%

20,8%

Support Do not support Do not know

How would you evaluate the current outcome of the Minsk agreements

regarding the situation in Donbas?

15,4%

34,8%

26,0%

11,2%

12,6%

Positively Negatively

Neutrally Know nothing about them

Do not know

In your opinion, should Crimea be a part of Ukraine, a part of

Russia or an independent state?

7,2%

68,6%

12,4%

11,8%

Part of Russia Part of Ukraine

Independent state Do not know

In your opinion, is it possible to return Crimea to Ukraine?

22,3%

32,1%

24,2%

13,3%

8,1%

It's possible It's possible but in a long time

It's hardly possible It's impossible

Do not know

Do you consider you are first of all:

(In percent)

December

2013

December

2014

May 2016

Inhabitant of your city, town or

village

24,3 12,3 18,6

Inhabitant of your region 11,0 6,8 7,9

Citizen of Ukraine 54,2 73,2 64,4

Representative of your ethnicity 2,0 1,3 1,8

Citizen of Russia - 0,1 2,0

Citizen of former USSR 3,2 2,9 0,1

Citizen of Europe 2,5 0,9 1,8

Citizen of the World 2,3 1,9 2,1

Other 0,1 0,6 0,3

Today’s Data

Based on Surveys • Conducted by the Sociological Service of the

Razumkov Centre in 2016.

• The sample of each survey consisted of more

than 2,000 respondents.

• All regions of Ukraine, except Crimea and the

occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk

Oblasts.

• Sampling error (without design effect) is less

than 2.3% with a probability of 0.95.