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Transit Elections
Successes and Failures: Lessons Learned
Tim Baldwin, AICPDecember 8, 2003
2002 Successes and Failures
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XX
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2003 Successes and Failures
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Factors Influencing Success or Failure
Research by:Richard Werbel, Professor of Marketing, San Jose State University
Factors Influencing Success or Failure
Identifiable congestion “crisis”Business community sponsorshipEndorsement by key elected officials
Factors Influencing Success or Failure
$1 million campaignRecent initiative experienceSupport from environmental groups
Factors Influencing Success or Failure
Multiple transit modesIncludes highway fundingBenefits distributed throughout area
Factors Influencing Success or Failure
Extension of existing rail systemNo problems with local transit systemStakeholder participation in package
Factors Influencing Success or Failure
General electionCombination of direct mail and TVLack of effective opposition
Factors Influencing Success or Failure: 10 Elections 1997-2000
Those that passed (6) had no more than 3 “negative” factorsThose that failed (4) had 10 or more “negative” factors
Case Studies
Dallas Area Rapid Transit 1988 (failed 2-1)
Case Studies
Denton County TX 2002/3 (passed 3-1)
Case Studies
Denver RTD, 2004?
DART1988
Denton County TX
2002/3
DenverRTD
2004?
Identifiable congestion crisis Business community sponsorship -Elected officials endorsement
x -
?
DART1988
Denton County TX
2002/3
DenverRTD
2004?
$1 million campaign fund
x xRecent initiative experience xEnvironmental group support
?
DART1988
Denton County TX
2002/3
DenverRTD
2004?
Multiple transportation modes
x Includes highway funding
x xBenefits throughout area
x
X
DART1988
Denton County TX
2002/3
DenverRTD
2004?
Extension of existing rail system
x xTransit with good local reputation
x xStakeholder help with package
x
DART1988
Denton County TX
2002/3
DenverRTD
2004?
General election date
x Combination direct mail and TV ads xLack of effective opposition
x
?
?
DART1988
(failed 2-1)
Denton Co. 2002/3
(passed 3-1)
DenverRTD
(2004?)
Positive factors
Negative factors
Neutral or uncertain
5
10
0
7
6
2
1-5?
4?
10?
Minimize Negative Factors to Maximize Chances for
Top 12 Lessons LearnedCarl Guardino, President and CEO, Silicon Valley Manufacturing GroupHelped lead 5 winning transportation ballot measures since 1984Generating $13 billionCalifornia law requires 2/3 vote
Top 12 Lessons Learned
12. Names Matter; Timing is Everything“Taxpayers for Traffic Relief”General elections good; special elections badNo relation to good or bad economy
Top 12 Lessons Learned
11. Build the Product or Buy the ProductBuilding a coalition is criticalLimit the opposition by embracing as many groups as possible
Top 12 Lessons Learned
10. Data or Dogma?Surveys are vitalTest all ideas; don’t assume you know what the public wants
Top 12 Lessons Learned
9. Penny-wise or Pound-foolish?You get what you pay for with consultantsAvoid “political favors” or “friends” when selecting a consultant
Top 12 Lessons Learned
8. Headlines or Headway?“It is amazing what you can accomplish when you don’t care who gets the credit.”“Run silent – run deep”
Top 12 Lessons Learned
7. Private or Public-Driven Partnership?Private sector should lead the campaignTaxpayer-to-taxpayer message more credible
Top 12 Lessons Learned
6. Empower or OverpowerFind a role for everyone in the coalition
Top 12 Lessons Learned
5. Watchdog or Lapdog?Polling showed strong support for citizen watchdog committeeListen to the voters!
Top 12 Lessons Learned
4. FundraisingSufficient funding is critical (at least $1 million in most metro areas)Get up-front commitmentsRun frugal campaigns emphasizing voter contact
Top 12 Lessons Learned
3. Community OutreachSpeakers BureauEditorial Board visitsFree mediaPaid media
Top 12 Lessons Learned
2. Pros or Schmoes?Transportation professionals developed list of projectsPolitical professionals determined what voters would support
Top 12 Lessons Learned
1. Deliver or WitherPrevious delivery on promises is critical for future voter approval
