Tsunami Inundation Modeling

Scientific consensus for seafloor mapping has been established in the Scientific consensus for seafloor mapping has been established in the three west coast states through public meetings, workshops and three west coast states through public meetings, workshops and scientific publications showing the benefits and need for mapping data. scientific publications showing the benefits and need for mapping data. In response, comprehensive seafloor mapping with an initial emphasis In response, comprehensive seafloor mapping with an initial emphasis on state waters has been identified as an important and unifying goal of on state waters has been identified as an important and unifying goal of the West Coast Governors’ Agreement on Ocean Health. It is a high the West Coast Governors’ Agreement on Ocean Health. It is a high priority for the WCGA to identify the federal and state resources to map priority for the WCGA to identify the federal and state resources to map 100% of shelf waters within the next decade to address the following 100% of shelf waters within the next decade to address the following critical issues: critical issues:

Oregon, Northern California, Washington and Vancouver Island, face a 20-70% Oregon, Northern California, Washington and Vancouver Island, face a 20-70% probability of experiencing a magnitude 8-9 subduction zone earthquake and tsunami probability of experiencing a magnitude 8-9 subduction zone earthquake and tsunami in the next 50 years, much like the 2004 disaster in Indonesia. Given the impacts of the in the next 50 years, much like the 2004 disaster in Indonesia. Given the impacts of the 2004 event, we are just now beginning to understand what a similar disaster will mean 2004 event, we are just now beginning to understand what a similar disaster will mean for the populations of the west coast. We are unable to accurately model tsunami for the populations of the west coast. We are unable to accurately model tsunami inundation because the models depend on detailed coastal seafloor maps (and other inundation because the models depend on detailed coastal seafloor maps (and other factors) that presently do not exist. Data will also provide information on active factors) that presently do not exist. Data will also provide information on active nearshore faults and submarine landslides capable of generating smaller, locally nearshore faults and submarine landslides capable of generating smaller, locally important tsunamis. important tsunamis.

Tsunami Inundation ModelingTsunami Inundation Modeling

Alternative Energy Sites and DynamicsAlternative Energy Sites and Dynamics

The same storms, waves and tides that contribute to erosion along our The same storms, waves and tides that contribute to erosion along our coast can be used to generate renewable power through the application of coast can be used to generate renewable power through the application of emerging energy technologies. In fact, areas for future wave “farms” and emerging energy technologies. In fact, areas for future wave “farms” and tidal generators have already been proposed and demonstrations of tidal generators have already been proposed and demonstrations of power-generating buoys have been successful. Seafloor mapping is power-generating buoys have been successful. Seafloor mapping is necessary for identifying, evaluating and siting potential wave power necessary for identifying, evaluating and siting potential wave power installations along the west coast.installations along the west coast.

Marine and Habitat ScienceMarine and Habitat Science

We now understand that many west coast fish and other marine life are We now understand that many west coast fish and other marine life are dependent upon spatially explicit, yet limited, seafloor habitat features. dependent upon spatially explicit, yet limited, seafloor habitat features. Describing and classifying these habitats are essential components of Describing and classifying these habitats are essential components of effectively assessing and managing west coast marine resources. Seafloor effectively assessing and managing west coast marine resources. Seafloor mapping is the fundamental starting point for modeling nearshore fish mapping is the fundamental starting point for modeling nearshore fish populations for both the Federal Essential Fish Habitat process and State populations for both the Federal Essential Fish Habitat process and State fisheries management. Mapping is also needed to identify the marine debris fisheries management. Mapping is also needed to identify the marine debris that locally degrades important habitats.that locally degrades important habitats.

Coastal Erosion and Rising Sea LevelCoastal Erosion and Rising Sea Level

West coast states have been experiencing significant coastal erosion, threatening property, infrastructure, recreation, and coastal economies. Coastal erosion and significant flooding from large winter storms will become even more important as sea level continues to rise in the coming decades. Protecting the coastline and regional sediment management are among the many coastal zone management challenges that require high-resolution near-shore bathymetry and coastal topography. Seafloor mapping data provide the basis for modeling ocean circulation, currents, waves, and sediment transport, needed to develop mitigation strategies.

Navigation and Safe CommerceNavigation and Safe Commerce

Nautical charting is of critical importance to safe navigation and Nautical charting is of critical importance to safe navigation and commerce, and depends upon detailed seafloor data. Many areas along commerce, and depends upon detailed seafloor data. Many areas along the west coast presently are charted based on data collected during the the west coast presently are charted based on data collected during the 19th and 2019th and 20thth centuries using lead weights at the end of a rope. Not only centuries using lead weights at the end of a rope. Not only are these data of poor quality, the nearshore seabed is constantly are these data of poor quality, the nearshore seabed is constantly changing, requiring modern new data. Modern surveys in these areas changing, requiring modern new data. Modern surveys in these areas have revealed numerous unknown navigation hazards. High-resolution have revealed numerous unknown navigation hazards. High-resolution seafloor mapping data supports safe navigation and maritime commerce seafloor mapping data supports safe navigation and maritime commerce as well as providing base map data for engineering, scientific and as well as providing base map data for engineering, scientific and commercial activities. commercial activities.

Seafloor Mapping in Oregon’s Seafloor Mapping in Oregon’s Territorial Sea* and Adjacent Territorial Sea* and Adjacent

WatersWaters

*not to be confused with the US Territorial Sea*not to be confused with the US Territorial Sea

BackgroundBackground

• Seafloor Mapping Task Force formed from interested Seafloor Mapping Task Force formed from interested state agency and academic parties in 2006.state agency and academic parties in 2006.

• Scientific Consensus Statement written in 2006Scientific Consensus Statement written in 2006

• Presentations made to State Officials and AgenciesPresentations made to State Officials and Agencies• Joint Committee on Emergency Preparedness Joint Committee on Emergency Preparedness • State Land BoardState Land Board• Ocean Policy Advisory Council (OPAC)Ocean Policy Advisory Council (OPAC)• OPAC Marine Reserves Working Group and Science and Technology OPAC Marine Reserves Working Group and Science and Technology

Advisory committeeAdvisory committee

• Oregon Seafloor Mapping Workshop held at OSU 2008Oregon Seafloor Mapping Workshop held at OSU 2008• Similar meetings held in WA and CASimilar meetings held in WA and CA• Oregon specific needs framed with regard to conservation, natural hazards Oregon specific needs framed with regard to conservation, natural hazards

& alternative energy development& alternative energy development

FundingFunding

• 2007 2007 HB 2924HB 2924 – Academic model for implementation – Academic model for implementation developed, Full amount proposed- not passeddeveloped, Full amount proposed- not passed

• 20092009– May 2009 - Oregon Legislature discusses using New Carissa May 2009 - Oregon Legislature discusses using New Carissa

settlement funds to support seafloor mapping.settlement funds to support seafloor mapping.• Stakeholder Agencies meet at OSU to develop priority Stakeholder Agencies meet at OSU to develop priority

mapping areasmapping areas

– July 2009 - OR Legislature allocates $1.3 million for mapping July 2009 - OR Legislature allocates $1.3 million for mapping over 2 years (2009-2010), Additional 1.3M for Marine reservesover 2 years (2009-2010), Additional 1.3M for Marine reserves

• NOAA OCS commits ~$5 million in NOAA OCS commits ~$5 million in additionaladditional support of support of Oregon’s “shovel ready” priorities. Workshop plan is Oregon’s “shovel ready” priorities. Workshop plan is implemented. implemented.

Project StructureProject Structure

• State, Federal, Industry collaboration emerges between OSU, State, Federal, Industry collaboration emerges between OSU, Oregon, NOAA and David Evans & Associates Oregon, NOAA and David Evans & Associates (Survey Contractor (Survey Contractor to NOAA)to NOAA)

– Initial estimate to pool resources and map ~30% of State WatersInitial estimate to pool resources and map ~30% of State Waters– Areas prioritized by stakeholders (ODFW, DSL, DLCD, OSU, DOGAMI)Areas prioritized by stakeholders (ODFW, DSL, DLCD, OSU, DOGAMI)

• Priority Areas focused on:Priority Areas focused on:• Marine Reserve SitesMarine Reserve Sites• Other Rocky Reef AreasOther Rocky Reef Areas• Wave Energy SitesWave Energy Sites• Tsunami vulnerable areasTsunami vulnerable areas

• Training Program developed at OSUTraining Program developed at OSU• Students with an interest in mapping recruited through MRM program (4 students Students with an interest in mapping recruited through MRM program (4 students

admitted)admitted)• Students staffed survey and sampling vessels and are processing data in the lab Students staffed survey and sampling vessels and are processing data in the lab

nownow• OSU has developed a new seafloor surveying course OSU has developed a new seafloor surveying course

Operational PlanOperational Plan

• David Evans & Associates

and OSU– Cape Perpetua North

• OSU– Cape Arago South

• Fugro Inc.– CA Crook Point

VesselsVessels

Mapping Sampling/Groundtruth

R/V Pacific Storm, Newport, OregonR/V Pacific Storm, Newport, Oregon

Owner: OSU Marine Mammal InstituteOwner: OSU Marine Mammal Institute

Ships Complement: 12 (4-5 crew, 7-8 Science)Ships Complement: 12 (4-5 crew, 7-8 Science)

Staffed by DEA Hydrographers and OSU team Staffed by DEA Hydrographers and OSU team (2009) OSU 2010. (2009) OSU 2010.

F/V Michele Ann, F/V Miss Linda, F/V F/V Michele Ann, F/V Miss Linda, F/V Delma Ann, F/V Maggie, R/V JABDelma Ann, F/V Maggie, R/V JAB

Ships Complement: varies (2 Science)Ships Complement: varies (2 Science)

Staffed by OSU (DEA for the JAB)Staffed by OSU (DEA for the JAB)

Survey Areas 2009 – 2010 ResultsSurvey Areas 2009 – 2010 Results• Total Area Total Area = = 3,250.45 nm2 3,250.45 nm2 = 100%= 100%• Previously Mapped Previously Mapped = = 177.2 nm2 177.2 nm2 = =

5.45%5.45%• Mapped in 2009 Mapped in 2009 = = 896.8 nm2 896.8 nm2 = =

27.59%27.59%• Mapped in 2010Mapped in 2010= = 578.7 nm2 578.7 nm2 = 16.5%= 16.5%

Total now completed = Total now completed = ~ 49.5%~ 49.5%

Sediment Sampling/Video ResultsSediment Sampling/Video Results

• 738 Shipek grab samples taken738 Shipek grab samples taken• Photos & qualitative descriptionsPhotos & qualitative descriptions

• 568 habitat specific samples568 habitat specific samples• Photos & qualitative descriptionsPhotos & qualitative descriptions

• Beckman Coulter PSA purchasedBeckman Coulter PSA purchased• Grainsize analysis of all samples- Grainsize analysis of all samples-

Winter 2010-2011Winter 2010-2011

• 47 towed video transects (34 hours 47 towed video transects (34 hours bottom timebottom time

• 30 video drops30 video drops

Grain Size AnalysisGrain Size Analysis

Laser Diffraction Particle Size AnalyzerLaser Diffraction Particle Size Analyzer

Redfish Rocks

Cape Perpetua

Cape Arago

Ocean Observing Initiative Sites, Oregon And WashingtonOcean Observing Initiative Sites, Oregon And WashingtonSupported by the National Science FoundationSupported by the National Science Foundation

Other State and Adjacent Areas in Federal WatersOther State and Adjacent Areas in Federal Waters

Northern San Andreas Fault and Shelf AreaNorthern San Andreas Fault and Shelf AreaSupported by the NOAA Ocean Exploration Program, USGS and MMSSupported by the NOAA Ocean Exploration Program, USGS and MMS

http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/








This was a “Green” cruise, using an auxilliary sailing vessel This was a “Green” cruise, using an auxilliary sailing vessel and an average of 1.6 gph for the multibeam/seismic and an average of 1.6 gph for the multibeam/seismic

surveysurvey

Washington Sponge Reefs, Gray Canyon AreaWashington Sponge Reefs, Gray Canyon AreaSupported by the NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center and Coral ProgramSupported by the NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center and Coral Program


OSU-MMS (nee BOEMRE) West Coast Alternative Energy OSU-MMS (nee BOEMRE) West Coast Alternative Energy Characterization StudyCharacterization Study

Six sites in CA, OR and WA mapped and sampled for benthic infauna Six sites in CA, OR and WA mapped and sampled for benthic infauna and geological characterizationand geological characterization


Mid-Shelf, Grays Mid-Shelf, Grays Harbor areaHarbor area

Data Integration and Next StepsData Integration and Next Steps

April 2010April 2010– Preliminary map products were delivered to community teams:Preliminary map products were delivered to community teams:– Bathymetric maps, sidescan sonar maps, preliminary habitat Bathymetric maps, sidescan sonar maps, preliminary habitat

mapsmaps

October 2010October 2010

– Other marine reserve related products should be completed, Other marine reserve related products should be completed, including species associations and larval dispersal model including species associations and larval dispersal model (supported by Packard Foundation)(supported by Packard Foundation)

Spring 2011Spring 2011– Continuing ground truth work, mostly southern OregonContinuing ground truth work, mostly southern Oregon– ROV /Towed camera work in conjunction with ODFWROV /Towed camera work in conjunction with ODFW– 2011 appropriation2011 appropriation

Documents

Tsunami Inundation Modeling