Today we are going to review audience trends in television and audio, including AM/FM and audio streaming. Each quarter, Nielsen releases its “Total Audience Report.”
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The Nielsen Total Audience Report examines reach for television, online, mobile and radio. In the past, Nielsen reported that television was America’s number one mass reach medium, based on monthly audiences of persons over the age of 2. The radio industry pointed out to Nielsen that radio audiences are reported for persons over the age of 12 in an an average week. Comparing 2+ month TV reach to radio’s 12+ weekly reach was not an apples to apples comparison. Nielsen agreed to level the playing field and study reach for persons 18+, 18-34, 35-49 etc. The results of this Q1 2015 study were surprising…
Radio is America’s #1 mass reach medium
Nielsen: “The Total Audience Report,” Q1 2015
Radio
TV
Smartphone
93%
87%
70%
PC 54%
Tablet 35%
Adults 18+ Weekly Reach (% of Population)
Over 90% of adults listen to radio each week
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Among persons 18+, America’s number one mass reach medium is….radio!!! Beating television, smartphones, PC, and tablets. More people are reached by radio in a week in America than TV. More people are reached by radio than people that own a smartphone, PC, or tablet.
Among Millennial 18-34s, radio dominates TV
Nielsen: “The Total Audience Report,” Q1 2015
Radio
Smartphone
TV
93%
80%
76%
PC 49%
Tablet 42%
TV misses one out of four 18- to 34-year-olds each week
18-34 Weekly Reach (% of Population)
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Among persons 18-34, the findings are even more stunning…Radio DOMINATES television in reach -- 93% to 76%. One in four 18- to 34-year-olds are NOT reached by TV in a typical week. In fact more 18-34s own a smartphone than watch TV!!! Often, when we present this data to agencies and advertisers, those in the room with children 18-34 say their kids spend all their time watching Netflix and never watch linear TV. It is clear among 18-34s, Netflix is taking a wrecking ball to linear television. Every week in America, one out of four 18-34 year olds are not reached by television!
Even among 35- to 49-year-olds, radio is the #1 reach medium
Nielsen: “The Total Audience Report,” Q1 2015
Radio
TV
Smartphone
95%
90%
81%
PC 63%
Tablet 49%
35-49 Weekly Reach (% of Population)
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Even among 35- to 49-year-olds, radio is America’s number one mass reach medium. Why is audience reach so important? It is at the core of how advertising causes advertiser sales to grow. Erwin Ephron, the father of modern media planning, called reach “media’s gift to advertising.” He said: “Advertising is most effective when it reminds people about brands they know, when they happen to need the product. Each day … people are in the market for products of all sorts. Advertising usually works by influencing that small group of consumers.” So to drive sales, you need reach. Radio has reach by the carload. Radio is America’s number one mass reach medium!
TV TrendsThe State of TV Viewing Today
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Let’s now turn to TV audiences. First let’s focus on the “big three” broadcast networks: ABC, CBS, and NBC…
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 2000 2010 2014
TV ViewersTotal Population
The median age of average primetime ABC/CBS/NBC telecast viewers is 57Age
Year
41
33
46
35
51
37
57
38
Media Dynamics, Inc.
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The median age of primetime audiences to ABC, CBS, and NBC is 57! You heard me: 57! The average age of the primetime broadcast network audience is not even contained among 25-54! The average age of all Americans is 38 -- 20 years younger than the big three network primetime audience…
Broadcast TV primetime viewers are getting much older; average age of radio listeners is stable
40
42
44
46
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50
52
54
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58
2005 2010 2014
Television Radio
Age
Year
Media Dynamics, Inc.; Scarborough USA+, persons 18+, all radio formats combined for specified survey
Median Age of Radio Listeners vs. Median Age of Average Primetime ABC/CBS/NBC Viewers
4345
4647
51
57
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The average age of the big three TV broadcast networks has been aging much faster than the U.S. radio audience. In the last five years, radio’s average age has increased by only year, while television audiences have aged by 6 years! Two major factors are impacting the average age of ABC, CBS, and NBC: cable with its racier fare has taken younger demos and Netflix has also taken a toll. Nielsen reports that half of homes with streaming video on-demand (SVOD) services, such as Amazon Prime Instant Video, Hulu, and Netflix, are families with children.
The more you make & younger you are, the less you watch TV
Nielsen NPOWER Total Day Usage
Nielsen: young householder & higher income associated with lower TV viewing
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Here’s data from Nielsen depicting time spent with television by income and age of head of household. The more you make and the younger you are, the less you watch TV. Based on this Nielsen data, heavy users of television are the very old and the very downscale. Now let’s take a look at recent TV viewing audience trends…
TV ratings continue to slump,Q2 2015 down 8%
MoffettNathanson: “2Q Media Preview: Redefining Tepid”
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This Nielsen analysis, courtesy of Wall Street media analyst MoffetNathanson, shows 18-49 primetime ratings trended from 2008 to second quarter 2015. From 2009 to 2012, TV viewing levels were plus or minus about two to three percent. Then in 2013, total 18-49 primetime audiences started eroding 6% to 8%. Winter Olympics provided a Q1 2014 bump. But since then, quarterly ratings erosion has continued. The second quarter of 2015 saw an 8% total TV audience drop…
4,200 3,600 -14%
7,596 6,368 -16%
11,336 10,706 -6%
19,552 18,232 -7%
8.0 7.9 -1%
TV ratings are down significantly year over year, while radio ratings are stable.
Also from MoffetNathanson is this Nielsen May 2014 to May 2015 comparison. The broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, NBC, CW etc.) experience a year over year drop of 14% total day and 16% in primetime. Cable networks see year over year ratings drops of 6% for total day and 7% in primetime. Radio is remarkably stable. From May 2014 to May 2015, radio’s total day average quarter rating in the 48 PPM markets is down only a tenth of a rating for a 1% drop. {BACKGROUND: National network television audiences reported by Nielsen are called “C3.” This means average commercial audience up to three days after airing. These Nielsen audience estimates are the average commercial audiences for broadcast networks (CBS, NBC, ABC, etc.) and cable networks (TNT, MTV, CNN, A&E etc.)}
Alliance Bernstein: Television Investment Conclusion
“We believe the U.S. television industry is entering a period of prolonged structural decline, caused by a migration of viewers from ad-supported platforms
to non-ad-supported, or less-ad-supported platforms. We favor companies that have the least exposure to U.S. advertising, the most exposure to sports, and advantaged positions internationally.”
— Todd Juenger, analyst at Sanford Bernstein
Alliance Bernstein: U.S. Media Audience Tracker, July 13, 2015
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Wall Street media analyst Alliance Bernstein issues this sobering conclusion to investors.
• Radio is America’s #1 mass reach media to reach Americans 18+, 18-34, and 35-49
• TV misses one out of four 18- to 34-year-olds.• Broadcast TV network primetime viewers are
getting much older, while radio listeners are not. • TV ratings are down significantly year over year,
while radio ratings are remarkably stable.
Summary: TV & Radio Trends
Nielsen, “The Total Audience Report,” Q1 2015; Scarborough USA+, persons 18+, all radio formats combined for specific survey; Media Dynamics, Inc.; MoffettNathanson
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Here are the key takeaways on television and radio trends. Now, let’s take an up-to-date look at audio streaming .
Share of EarAmericans’ Share of Time Spent
Listening to Audio SourcesQ2 2015
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While Nielsen does not currently measure audiences to streaming services such as Pandora and Spotify, Edison Research has stepped in to produce the “Share of Ear” study. Each quarter, Edison has 2,000 consumers fill out a 24-hour audio diary to measure their usage of all kinds of audio.
Provides strategic information for businesses worldwide with a specialty in media, advertising and entertainment industries
Conducts the exit polls for all American elections for ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press
Co-produces The Infinite Dial, a national study since 1998 that measures consumer use of the Internet, streaming video and audio and other new media technologies
Leading provider of radio research, with more than 20 years experience
About Edison
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Edison has been tracking streaming audio for nearly 20 years with its well known “Infinite Dial” study. Edison is the one company that conducts all the exits polls for all American elections for the major networks. Edison’s“Share of Ear” study examines Americans use of all forms of audio. This includes streaming, SiriusXM satellite radio, personal music collections, those cable music channels way high up on your cable channel lineup, and AM and FM, as well as podcasts and even watching music videos on YouTube. This is the most inclusive understanding of how American’s consume audio in all its forms. Edison just released its Q2 2015 results…
AM/FM is 8 times bigger than Pandora
Share of audio time spent
AM/FM Radio52%
Owned Music15%
Pandora6%
SiriusXM6%
TV Music Channels5%
Other Streaming Audio
4%
Spotify3%
Podcasts2%
Other1%
Music Videos on YouTube
6%
Edison Research, “Share of Ear,” Q2 2015
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Here is the share of audio time spent in America among all persons aged 13 and older. AM/FM is the king of all audio with over half of audio time spent. Next is people’s own music at 15%. That’s listening to music on your phone, CD’s or iPod. Next, each with 6% share of listening, is Pandora, SiriusXM and music videos on YouTube. AM/FM share of listening is 8 times bigger than Pandora. Spotify has a three share. At 5%, cable music channels earn an audience share nearly as big as satellite and Pandora.
Background music at home: majority of Pandora’s listening occurs at home
Over half of AM/FM listening is out of home, where consumer purchases occur
AM/FMRADIO
Car/Truck 38%
Work15%
Home46%
Other1%
Car/Truck 5%
Work22%
Home68%
Other5%
53% of AM/FMtime spent isout of home
Only 27%of Pandora’stime spent isout of home
PANDORA
Edison Research, “Share of Ear,” Q2 2015
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Now let’s turn to location of listening. Pandora is at-home background music. Two-thirds of Pandora’s listening comes from home. AM/FM, on the other hand, is more of an out-of-home medium, reaching busy Americans on the way to work as they make purchases.
While three-quarters of Americans are reached daily by AM/FM, few listen only to streaming services
% Of All Americans Who Listen Daily
74
71
63
11
4
3
2
0 20 40 60 80 100
Listen to AM/FM
Listen to AM/FM, not Spotify
Listen to AM/FM, not Pandora
Listen to both AM/FM and Pandora
Listen to Pandora, not AM/FM
Listen to both AM/FM and Spotify
Listen to Spotify, not AM/FM
73% of Pandora listenersalso listen to AM/FM
60% of Spotify listenersalso listen to AM/FM
Edison Research, “Share of Ear,” Q2 2015
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Now let’s focus on the most important audience metric: reach. As we learned earlier, reach is what drives advertiser sales. Every day Americans need to purchase something. As America’s number one mass reach medium, AM/FM radio allows advertisers the ability to reach virtually everyone who is about to make a purchase. The key message here is AM/FM has a ton of daily reach. Pandora and Spotify have tiny daily reach. Three-quarters of Americans are reached daily by AM/FM, few if any Americans only listen to Pandora or Spotify. Only 4% of all American’s only listen to Pandora and don’t listen to AM/FM. Only 2% of Americans only listen to Spotify and don’t listen to AM/FM. The vast majority of Americans never listen to either Pandora or Spotify. Of the small number who do listen to Pandora or Spotify, most also listen to AM/FM. So if you buy advertising on AM/FM, you are getting two-thirds of Pandora’s and Spotify’s audience for free -- nice valued added!!
74
66
8
5
0 20 40 60 80 100
Listen to AM/FM Radio
Listen to AM/FM Radio, but not SiriusXM
Listen to both AM/FM and SiriusXM
Listen to SiriusXM, but not AM/FM Radio
While three-quarters of Americans are reached daily by AM/FM, few listen only to SiriusXM
% Of All Americans Who Listen Daily
62% of SiriusXM listenersalso listen to AM/FM
Edison Research, “Share of Ear,” Q2 2015
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The same holds true for SiriusXM satellite radio. Just 5% of American’s only listen to SiriusXM and don’t listen to AM/FM. Most Americans are never reached by SiriusXM.
• AM/FM Radio is the “King of All Audio” with over 50% of time spent
• AM/FM has an 8:1 time spent advantage over Pandora• Majority of Pandora’s listening occurs at home. More than
half of AM/FM listening is out of home• AM/FM Radio has mass reach: three-quarters of
Americans reached daily• Daily reach for Pandora (16%) and Spotify (4%) is low• Of those that listen to Pandora, over 70% also listen to
AM/FM, 60% of Spotify’s audience also listens to AM/FM
Summary: Edison ‘Share of Ear’ Findings
Edison Research, “Share of Ear,” Q2 2015
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Here are the main messages of the Edison Share of Ear data from Q2 2015. Overall, we’ve learned that America’s number one mass reach medium is radio. Reach is media’s gift to advertising and radio has it by the carload. Television’s audience, which skews old and downscale, is eroding sharply, while radio listening levels are remarkably stable. Among all audio listening, AM/FM radio is the “King of All Audio,” with over 50% time spent listening. Thanks for the opportunity to share the latest media audience trends.
