UNESCO INSTITUTE for STATISTICS Teachers and Educational Quality: Monitoring Global Needs for 2015 Albert Motivans UNESCO Institute for Statistics Paris,

UNESCOINSTITUTE for STATISTICS

Teachers and Educational Quality:Teachers and Educational Quality:Monitoring Global Needs for 2015Monitoring Global Needs for 2015

Albert Motivans UNESCO Institute for Statistics

Paris, 20 July 2006


UIS report on teachersUIS report on teachers

Rationale: Global progress towards UPE, but still slow Low quality of education and lack of demand are key issues Investing in primary school teachers to improve quality and to

ensure that children complete and attain basic skills

Main issues: How many teachers are needed to meet the UPE goals Reaching sufficient quantity and quality of primary teachers Policy trade-offs: managing the balance Mobilise efforts to improve international data on teachers


WWhat factors and policies are related to hat factors and policies are related to teacher quantity and quality issues?teacher quantity and quality issues?

Teacher standards Pre-service training In-service training Monitoring and support Conditions of service

• Population growth• Increased participation • High teacher attrition (conflict, HIV-AIDS)• Education system output

• Labour market, perception of teaching profession

• Efficiency of teacher deployment and pupil progression• Efforts to improve staff-student ratios

Teacher quantity Teacher quality


Measuring teacher stocks and flowsMeasuring teacher stocks and flows

Primary teachers(stock)2005


5-10% annually

Outflow: teachers exit the profession

Inflow: teachers enter the profession

Teacher stock needed to meet UPE


AA measure of teaching capital: measure of teaching capital: academic qualifications of teachers academic qualifications of teachers


Lower secondary

Upper secondary

Tertiary

Primary


Tertiary

Upper secondary

Lower secondary

Model 1

Tertiary

Upper secondary

Lower secondary

Model 2

Primary


Proportion of trained primary teachers Proportion of trained primary teachers in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2003in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2003

50 51

5760

62 6368 69 69 72 73 73

76 77 79 81 81 81 81 8187

89 91 9195

100 100 100 100 100

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Nam

ibia

Mal

awi

Con

go

Moz

ambi

que

Ben

in

Gha

na

Cam

eroo

n

Eth

iopi

a

Cap

e V

erde

Nig

er

Leso

tho

Gam

bia

Nig

eria

Sey

chel

les

Sie

rra

Leon

e

Uga

nda

Tog

o

Erit

rea

Rw

anda

Sou

th A

fric

a

Bur

kina

Fas

o

Bot

swan

a

Sen

egal

Sw

azila

nd

Zim

babw

e

Côt

e d'

Ivoi

re

Gab

on

Mau

ritiu

s

UR

Tan

zani

a

Zam

bia

% t

rain

ed p

rim

ary

teac

her

s


Standards and the proportion (%)Standards and the proportion (%)of teachers who meet them, 2003of teachers who meet them, 2003

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Nig

er

Con

go

Moz

ambi

que

Bur

kina

Fas

o

Gui

nea-

Bis

sau

Cha

d

Mal

i

Sie

rra

Leon

e

Eth

iopi

a

Bur

undi

Erit

rea

Sen

egal

Tan

zani

a

Ben

in

Cam

eroo

n

Gam

bia

Uga

nda

Rw

anda

Gui

nea

Mal

awi

Tog

o

Cot

e d'

Ivoi

re

Zam

bia

Cap

e V

erde

Nig

eria

Equ

at.

Gui

nea

Gha

na

Ken

ya

Leso

tho

Sey

chel

les

Bot

swan

a

Sw

azila

nd

Gab

on

Mau

ritiu

s

Nam

ibia

Sou

th A

fric

a

Zim

babw

e

PrimaryLower secondary

Upper secondaryTertiary

Greatest need for new teachers Least need for new teachers

Lower secondary Upper secondary Post-secondary Tertiary


Sixth-grade teacher and pupil reading scores in Southern Africa, early 2000s

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Leso

tho

Nam

ibia

Sw

azila

nd

Bot

swan

a

Sey

chel

les

Mau

ritiu

s

Sou

th A

fric

a

Uga

nda

Tan

zani

a

Mal

awi

Zam

bia

Ken

ya

Moz

ambi

que

Teachers Students

Source: SACMEQ

Range in scores


Forecasting the required number Forecasting the required number of teachers to meet UPE by 2015 of teachers to meet UPE by 2015

Target: 1OO% net enrolment rate (or 110% gross enrolment ratio) to be reached by 2015

Assumptions • Improve coverage (meet UPE)• Improve efficiency (reduce repetition)• Improve quality (maintain PTR levels)


Globally, 18 million primary teachers Globally, 18 million primary teachers needed to meet UPE by 2015needed to meet UPE by 2015

1,840

865

3,976

1,618

2,458

3,5833,783

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

Ara

b S

tate

s

Cen

tral

and

Eas

tern

Eur

ope/

Cen

tral

Asi

a

Eas

t Asi

a an

d th

eP

acifi

c

Latin

Am

eric

a an

dth

e C

arib

bean

Nor

th A

mer

ica

and

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Sou

th a

nd W

est

Asi

a

Sub

-Sah

aran

Afr

ica

Vacancies that need not to be replaced because ofdeclining demand

Teachers required to fill vacancies of post created toprogress towards UPE

Teachers required to fill new posts to progresstowards UPE

Teachers required by 2015 to maintain currentteacher force

1,840

865

3,976

1,618

2,458

3,5833,784

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

Arab States Central &Eastern

Europe andCentral Asia

East Asia andthe Pacific

Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

NorthAmerica and

WesternEurope

South andWest Asia

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Nu

mb

er o

f p

rim

ary

teac

her

s (i

n t

ho

usa

nd

s) Existing posts which do not requireto be filled due to declining demandfor teachersTeachers required to fill existingposts created to attain UPE

Teachers required to fill new postscreated to attain UPE

Teachers required to fill existingposts

(medium scenario)(medium scenario)


Annual growth rates (%) in primary Annual growth rates (%) in primary teachers required to meet UPE by 2015teachers required to meet UPE by 2015

3.1 3.3

4.8 5.1

3.0 3.1

8.8

3.1 3.2 3.54.0 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9

5.4 5.7 6.0 6.1

7.5

8.49.0

9.5

10.711.4

12.6 12.7 12.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Pa

lest

inia

n A

. T.

Un

.Ara

b E

mir

ate

s

Sa

ud

i Ara

bia

Ma

uri

tan

ia

Ba

ng

lad

esh

Pa

kist

an

Afg

ha

nis

tan

Ma

da

ga

sca

r

Ca

me

roo

n

Za

mb

ia

To

go

Ta

nza

nia

Ug

an

da

Rw

an

da

Ga

mb

ia

Co

mo

ros

Se

ne

ga

l

Ma

law

i

Gu

ine

a

Be

nin

Mo

zam

biq

ue

Bu

run

di

Eth

iop

ia

Eri

tre

a

Ma

li

Bu

rkin

a F

aso

Nig

er

Co

ng

o

Ch

ad

Av

era

ge

an

nu

al i

nc

rea

se

in t

ea

ch

ing

sto

ck

(%

) Arab States South and West Asia Sub-Saharan Africa


Primary teacher stock, qualifications Primary teacher stock, qualifications (2003) and targets for 2015(2003) and targets for 2015

Ta

nza

nia

Mo

zam

biq

ue

Nig

er

Bu

rkin

a

Se

ne

ga

l

Co

ng

o

La

o P

DR

Eth

iop

ia

Nig

eri

a

Ug

an

da

Ma

li

Ch

ad

Bu

run

di

Be

nin

Ca

me

roo

n

Rw

an

da

Ca

mb

od

ia

Ga

mb

ia

Ca

pe

Ve

rde

Sa

ud

i Ara

bia

Ba

ng

lad

esh

Ira

q

Ke

nya

Ma

law

i

Gh

an

a

Gu

ine

a

Za

mb

ia

Eri

tre

a

To

go

Eg

ypt

Un

.Ara

b

Ku

wa

it

Om

an

Ba

ha

ma

s

ISCED 2 ISCED 3 ISCED 4 ISCED 5

% of current teachers with min. qualification % of current teachers without min. qualifications % increase required by 2015

Level of qualification required to become a primary teacher (2003)


Typology of teacher stock and capitalTypology of teacher stock and capital

Quality

Quantity Insufficient Sufficient

Insufficient

SufficientIssues are more nuanced

Raising quality of existing teaching force

Selective systems

How to raise numbers and quality


How can countries balance quantity How can countries balance quantity targets and quality?targets and quality?

Improve the efficiency of system (allocation and deployment)

Explore the use of new training technologies Accelerate teacher training programmes Consider sustainable para-teacher schemes Improve in-service training and support Reduce attrition


To access the reportTo access the report

For a pdf file of the report and access to data tables (in Excel), see the UIS website:

www.uis.unesco.org/ publications/teachers2006

• For a printed copy, send request to: [email protected]

Documents

UNESCO INSTITUTE for STATISTICS Teachers and Educational Quality: Monitoring Global Needs for 2015 Albert Motivans UNESCO Institute for Statistics Paris,