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UniCredit Group. Alessandro Profumo Chief Executive Officer. Lehman Brothers Financial Services Conference New York, 12 th September 2007. UNICREDIT: EXCELLENT POSITIONING IN EUROPE, UNIQUE PLATFORM IN CEE. TOTAL REVENUES BREAKDOWN. BY GEOGRAPHY. UNPARALLELED EUROPEAN FRANCHISE - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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UniCredit Group
Lehman Brothers Financial Services ConferenceNew York, 12th September 2007
Alessandro ProfumoChief Executive Officer
2
Retail37%
Corporate20%
MIB14%
CEE18%
PB&AM11%
UNICREDIT: EXCELLENT POSITIONING IN EUROPE, UNIQUE PLATFORM IN CEE
NOTE: Year-end 2006 data, referred to UniCredit + Capitalia + ATF +USB Groups (combined pro-forma) Source: UniCredit, Capitalia, ATF, USB 2006 data
TOTAL REVENUES BREAKDOWN
Other 8%
CEE 18%
Austria 10%
Italy 47%
Germany 17%
WELL DIVERSIFIED REVENUE BASE Strong presence in the Italian banking market, among
the less penetrated in Eurozone
Undisputed leader in high growth CEE region, with strong exposure to commercial banking (1H07 Retail and Corporate revenues: ~80% of Group’s total revenues in CEE region)
Still relevant restructuring potential in Germany and Austria after integration completion
UNPARALLELED EUROPEAN FRANCHISE Banking operations in 23 countries(1) in four core markets:
Italy: #2, ~16% mkt share post Capitalia(2)
Germany: #3, ~5% mkt share(2)
Austria: #1, ~19% mkt share(2)
CEE: biggest investor in the region (among top five in 11 countries by loans)
More than ~40 million customers, ~9,500 branches
(1) Including ATF(2) Market shares and rankings calculated on customer loans, considering only loans to domestic customers for Germany
Clear value creation potential thanks to growth and restructuring opportunities
BY GEOGRAPHY
BY DIVISION
3
1H07 Results
First steps of the integration with Capitalia
US Sub-prime & Conduit exposure
Conclusions
AGENDA
4
2Q07 CONFIRM SOLID PROFITABILITY TREND OF THE GROUP
1H07 1H06 ∆
EVA (mln) 2,073 1,358 715
Marginal RARORAC (%) 16.4% 11.7% 4.7%
Jun07 Dec06 ∆
Total RWA (bn) 439.9 422.3 4.2%
Core TIER1 Ratio (%) 6.09% 5.82% 27 bp
Operating costs benefiting from release of excess pension fund provisions (~150 mln in BA-CA and ~116 mln in Italy for “TFR”); +4.4% 1H07/1H06 net of this effect, mainly due to higher business volumes
Improved profitability of RWA(3), 6.12% in 1H07 (~ +60 bp on FY06)
Lower contribution of other non operating items (-311 mln y/y, largely due to gain on Splitska posted in 2Q06)
Cost of risk(3) down to 53 bp in 1H07 (-3 bp vs FY06)
~200 mln of capital generated through securitizations
1H07 net income +34.8% y/y at constant FX and perimeter (excluding gain on Splitska(2))
(1) Goodwill amortization, provisions for risk and charges, integration costs and net profit from investments
(3) CoR and Revenues/avg. RWA in 1H07 are annualized
(2) Eur 367 mln posted in 2Q06
1H07 C/I ratio at 50.2% vs 54.9% in 1H06
Increased Core Tier 1 ratio to ~6.1%
Good operating performance sustained by revenue growth in all business divisions
mln
1H07 % ch. on
1H06
% ch. on 1H06 at
constant FX &
perimeter
Total Revenues 13,124 9.6% 10.7%
Operating Costs -6,593 0.4% 1.5%
Operating Profit 6,531 20.9% 21.8%
Net Write Downs of Loans -1,075 5.8% 5.3%
Other Non Operating Items(1) 165 -61.7% >100%
Net Income for the Group 3,607 16.6% 34.8%
Cost/Income ratio, % 50.2% -462 bp -448 bp
5
REVENUES AT ~6.5 BN (+9.4% Y/Y) DRIVEN BY GOOD TREND IN FEES AND COMMISSIONS
NET COMMISSION INCOME, mln TRADING INCOME, mlnNET INTEREST INCOME (ex div.), mln
Of which Exchangeable Generali effect, mln
+42 +58 -40
3,237 3,1882,942
2Q06 1Q07 2Q07
2,275 2,334
2,109
2Q06 1Q07 2Q07
830
559564
2Q06 1Q07 2Q07
-0.9%-32.7%-1.5%
+10.7%+8.4%
+2.6%
+14.7% net of
Exchangeable Generali
Net interest income up 8.4% y/y, with positive contribution from all the Divisions, mainly CEE and Poland’s Markets (both approx. +24% y/y) and Retail-Italy (+10% y/y, thanks to loan growth and improved deposit spread); -1.5% q/q due to MIB Division’s seasonality
Net commissions +10.7% y/y mainly due to growth in MIB (+35.3 y/y) and in the CEE Region (+23.6% y/y). Good trend also in AM (+17.0% y/y) and in Corporate (+10.1% y/y)
Trading income +14.7% y/y net of Exchangeable Generali effect (-82 mln), with continuous strong contribution of MIB (+33.1% y/y)
6
STAFF EXPENSES(1), mln
OPERATING COSTS AT 3,207 MLN (-1.1% Y/Y) BENEFITING FROM RELEASE OF EXCESS PENSION PROVISIONS
OTHER ADMIN. EXPENSES AND EXPENSE RECOVERIES, mln
DEPRECIATION, mln
Staff costs decline due to the effect of TFR reform in Italy and release of provisions for BA-CA pension liabilities(1); net of non-recurring items(1), staff costs are up ~7% y/y mainly driven by:
performance-related compensation, accounting for >50% of the increase (mainly MIB, AM and Poland) business expansion in selected CEE countries and investments in global business lines
Other administrative expenses +11% y/y mainly explained by: growth projects like investments in global product lines and opening of new branches in Turkey, Russia and Hungary outsourcing in Germany various IT projects in Germany and Italy largely related to Eurosig implementation and mandatory projects(2)
effect of comparison with 2Q06, lowest quarter in the year. 1H07/1H06 change +4.7%
1,055 1,101991
2Q06 1Q07 2Q07
287 289303
2Q06 1Q07 2Q07
(1) 2Q07 non-recurring items in staff-costs: 150 mln of release of provisions for BA-CA pension liabilities and 116 mln of TFR reform benefits
2,0441,817
1,948
2Q06 1Q07 2Q07
-6.7%
-11.1%
(2) MIFID directive; SEPA (Single Euro Payments Area: integrated market implementation for international payments in 27 EU countries); Basel II
+4.4%-4.6%
+0.7%
+11.1%
7
GROUP STAFF RIGHTSIZING STILL MORE THAN OFFSETTING HIRING FOR GROWTH INITIATIVES
Decrease in CEE Region driven by merger completion and rightsizing
Decrease of FTEs (-3,121 or –2.3%) excluding growth initiatives with relevant contribution of GBS & corporate centre and outsourcing deals
GROUP FTE (1)
Dec06
137,197
-26
135,880
Jun07
-1,585
-1,020
Russia & Turkey
+ 783
Growth initiatives
Retail(3) RetailItaly
+ 188
Other
+ 87
(1) Yapi Group at 100%(2) Outsourcing: Security activities in Turkey (820), PAS (420), HVB IS (316), Indexchange Investment (30)(3) Include transfer of approx. 200 FTE from Corporate Centre for CRO related activities(4) New consolidation: Planet Home (299), Insurance Broker (16) and Unicredit Leasing Ukraina (20)
CEE Region ex Russia & Turkey
- 3,121 FTE
Jun07 Subtotal
134,077
+ 395
Corporate
Increase in Corporate mainly due to investment in Leasing and to “revenue boost project” in Banca d’Impresa and HVB
GBS & corp.
centre
Out-sourcing
and disposals(2)
-489+ 350
New Consolidation
(4)
-1,317
8
POSITIVE TREND IN ASSET QUALITY AND CONTINUED DE-RISKING OF BALANCE SHEET
LOAN LOSS PROVISIONS, mln
565510501
2Q06 1Q07 2Q07
-6.6% gross of PPA adj.
+1.8%
-9.7%
Loan loss provisions reflect a positive credit environment mainly in Germany and Poland Cost of Risk(1) down to 53 bp in 1H07 (-3 bp vs. FY06) with improvements in all geographic areas
ASSET QUALITY TREND
(2) Loans to customers
Strong reduction of net impaired loans
Decreased % weight of net impaired loans on total customer loans
Increased coverage ratio on impaired loans with significant growth on NPL (from 61.5% to 63.6%), doubtful (from 26% to 30%) and restructured loans (from 31.6% to 37%)
Material de-risking of balance sheet: Net impaired loans/Total Regulatory Capital ratio reduced from 32.2% as of Dec06 to 26.8% as of Jun07 (> 5% reduction)
(1) Profit (loss) and net write downs on loans / Total Period Average RWA for Credit Risks
dic-06 mar-07 giu-07∆ vs.
Dec06
Net impaired loans(2), bn 14.3 13.5 12.3 -13.5%
% on total net loans(2) 3.2% 3.0% 2.7% -51 bp
% Coverage Ratio on Impaired(2) 48.9% 50.6% 53.2% +4.3 pp
9
20.719.7
18.216.9
SEP 06 DEC 06 1Q07 JUN 07
SCP: recent evolution (Credit Exposure, bn)
OUTSTANDING TRACK RECORD IN REDUCTION OF NON STRATEGIC ASSETS IN GERMANY
9.5
4.0 3.8 3.3
DEC 05 DEC 06 1Q07 JUN 07
(1) 1Q07 based on Feb 07 data
RER: recent evolution (Credit Exposure, bn)
-17.5%
-13.2%
RER portfolio reduced by ~79% since creation (15.4 bn as of 31.12.2004)
(1)
~500 mln reduction in the last 4 months achieved through successful day-by-day workout
3.8 bn reduction achieved since creation (~ -20%), o/w 1.3 bn in the last 4 months
(1)
-14.2%
-7.1%
10
CEE12%
Corporate25%
MIB21%
Poland's Markets
10%
Retail23%
Private & AM9%
1H07 OPERATING PROFIT
CEE12%
Private & AM10%
Retail32%Poland's
Markets9%
MIB17%
Corporate20%
CEE15%
Private & AM6%
Retail20%
Poland's Markets
4%
MIB16%
Corporate39%
1H07 TOTAL REVENUES
1H07 ALLOCATED CAPITAL 1H07 EVA
y/y % ch.Retail 4.3%Corporate 6.1%Private & AM 7.0%MIB 26.5%CEE 17.6%Poland's Markets 13.1%
y/y % ch.Retail 20.5%Corporate 8.9%Private & AM 15.3%MIB 39.6%CEE 25.9%Poland Markets 23.0%
y/y % ch.Retail 1.7%Corporate 3.3%Private & AM 10.9%MIB 7.9%CEE 31.5%Poland's Markets 30.8%
y/y % ch.Retail 92.7%Corporate 31.4%Private & AM 27.7%MIB 58.7%CEE 70.5%Poland's Markets 39.2%
CEE13% Private & AM
15%
Retail17%Poland's
Markets9%
MIB29%
Corporate17%
STRONG CONTRIBUTION FROM ALL DIVISIONS TO EVA GENERATION
11
CAPITALIA DELIVERING SOLID COMMERCIAL AND OPERATING RESULTS: GOOD ADDITIONAL NETWORK FOR FUTURE GROWTH IN ITALY
Solid operating profit growth in 1H07 (+10.2% y/y) driven by strong commercial performance in all major banks of the Group
Cost income further down to 56.2% in 1H07, improving by over 3 p.p. y/y
Net doubtful loans stable with decreasing ratio on net loans of 30 bp on Dec06; coverage ratio stable at 63%
Negligible exposure to the areas affected by the recent market turmoil (zero US Sub-prime; only 65 mln loans to conduits)
Revenues rise 9.8% y/y, mainly thanks to strong net interest income reflecting solid trend in business volumes, both on the deposit and lending side
12
POSITIVE TREND OF COMMERCIAL RESULTS IN 1H07 BOTH IN RETAIL AND CORPORATE
Significant volume expansion: customer deposits up 17% y/y, customer loans +15% y/y, increasing market shares (6.8%(1) on deposits, +40 bp y/y; 5.9%(1) on customer loans, +20 bp y/y)
Good performance in Retail products inflows
Corporate loans increase 25% y/y (on average volumes) with strong upward trend in all key corporate lending products and good performance across all commercial banks
Life premiums
678
893758
Avg 1H07Avg 06Avg 05
+31.7%
+17.8%
Retail Mortgage inflows
2,175
3,2113,083
1H 071H 061H 05
+1.5x
+4%
New Credit Cards issued
137
284
212
1H 071H 061H 05
+2.1x
+34%
(1) Estimate
13
NET DOUBTFUL (mln)
4,298
5,781
4,304
12/0512/04 12/06
3,214
4,436
3,332
1,084
1,345
971
NPLs
Watchlist
6,447
12/03
4,543
1,9044,316
06/07
3,399
916
Net Doubtful/Net Loans (%)7.6
5.2
4.5
4.2
8.6
STABLE DOUBTFUL LOANS WITH DECREASING WEIGHT ON CUSTOMER LOANS
-33.1%
+0.3%
Further reduction of net doubtful / net loans ratio from 4.5% as of Dec. 06 to 4.2% as of June 07 Confirmed sound doubtful loans coverage ratio: 63% as of June 07 vs 62.9% as of Dec. 07
Pre IAS
COVERAGE DOUBTFUL (%)
52.548.5
63.4 63.0
12/0412/03 12/05 06/07
62.9
12/06
+14.5pp
+0.1%
14
PROVISIONS INCREASE DUE TO LOWER LOAN WRITE-BACKS AND TREVI IMPACT
LOAN LOSS PROVISIONS & WRITE-BACKS (mln)
ì
550476
1H 06 1H 07
208245
612
2H 06
359
Write-backsGross provisions on credits
Net loan loss provisions
231 253 342 64 mln provisions on financial assets
in 1H07 (vs 11 in 1H06) of which
42%
30%
28%
PROVISIONS ON FINANCIAL ASSETS(mln)
TREVI 62 mln linked to:
rising interest rates
collections and legal expenses trend
loan portfolio impairment
15
1H07 Results
First steps of the integration with Capitalia
US Sub-prime & Conduit exposure
Conclusions
AGENDA
16
SMOOTH AND RAPID INTEGRATION WITH CAPITALIA
Paolo Fiorentino appointed as new Capitalia CEO
Limited exercised withdrawal rights (3.136%(1) of Capitalia’s share capital), equivalent to Euro 573 mln
Integration started at full speed
Clearance from Antitrust expected by end of September; merger October 1
Quick agreement with Unions on rightsizing signed well in advance of expectations
(1) As of September 3
17
Incentivated exits
Key elements
Banking social fund
Voluntary exits through incentive plan Personnel becoming eligible for pension within
2010 First wave in October
Voluntary exits funded through Banking Social Fund’s contribution
Personnel becoming eligible for pension within July 1st 2015 (max 3,000 in 3 years)
First wave in January 2008
Estimated 5,000
people involved
Other instruments
Leverage on natural attrition and on internal mobility in order to reach a better rightsizing
AGREEMENT WITH UNIONS ON RIGHTSIZING REACHED WELL IN ADVANCE, ~5,000 FTES INVOLVED
Union agreement signed last August 3rd vs. year end 2007Room for staff rightsizing leveraging on natural attrition and early retirement
Agreement reached before the merger, paving the way to a quick Group’s reorganization
18
CAPITALIA MERGER PROCESS FULLY BENEFITS FROM UNICREDIT DOMESTIC INTEGRATION EXPERTISE
Extensive integration task force: more than 1,500 people involved, 95 internally managed projects across 12 Divisional / Functional Areas
Key goals
New Unicredit/Capitalia branches plan
First Retail joint initiatives (e.g. ATMs sharing at no charge)
Legal integration path and IT plan
Internal and external communication plan
DONE
MID SEPT Segmentation criteria for customer allocation
Common brand strategy
OCTOBER 1ST
New Unicredit Holding, including Capitalia personnel
Consolidated regulatory reporting and capital ratios, centralized Treasury
Joint product initiatives
END 2007
Unified divisional budget process
MBO model for network defined
Consolidated managerial and credit reporting
19
CAPITALIA WITHDRAWAL LIMITED CONFIRMING MARKET CONFIDENCE ON THE VALUE CREATION OF THE DEAL
Only 3.136%(1) of Capitalia’s share capital involved in the withdrawal, equivalent to Euro 573 mln
UniCredit BoD will decide whether to call the EGM to resolve on the proposal of removal of the statutory clause concerning voting right limitation (making void the withdrawal right)
Offer on the market (for 5 consecutive trading days) of the shares not been placed through the option process
The shares which are not placed on the market shall be purchased by UniCredit (after merger completion)
OFFER IN OPTION at the withdrawal price(2)
the shares for which the withdrawal right has been exercised are to be offered to the other Capitalia shareholders in proportion to the number of shares held
the shareholders who have exercised the option right may also exercise a pre-emptive right for the purchase of the shares for which the option has not been exercised
September 4 / October 3
September 18
October
By end of January
(2) Euro 7.015 per share
(1) As of September 3
If the UniCredit BoD decides not to call the EGM
20
1H07 Results
First steps of the integration with Capitalia
US Sub-prime & Conduit exposure
Conclusions
AGENDA
21
Euro mlnTotal
Unicredit Group
On balance
US sub-prime RMBS 127
CDO with partial sub-prime 139
of which equity tranches/income notes 11
Retained interest 11
Total on balance 277
Off balance 77
Total 354
Exposure to US sub-primes:
RMBS collateralized by US sub-prime mortgages (mainly vintage, 2002-2003), still AAA rated
CDO with sub-prime collateral: 90% still investment grade, 70% AA or better at the end of August
Retained interest held by Pioneer
NEGLIGIBLE EXPOSURE FOR UNICREDIT TO US SUB-PRIME…
RMBS: Residential Mortgage Backed SecuritiesCDO: Collateralized Debt Obligations(1) Off balance items include conduits with sub-prime exposure and investments in SIVs(2) On Unicredit reported total regulatory capital as of June 07
(1)
Exposure equivalent to 0.8% total regulatory capital(2)
22
8.5
6.2
14.3
July 07 Aug 07 5 Sep 07 Feb 08E
… AND TO CONDUIT BUSINESS
Very quick response to market turmoil by reducing Bavaria TRR assets from 14 to 6 Euro bn
Bavaria TRR exposure, Euro bnEuro bn
HVB sponsored conduits
Size as of 29 Aug-07
Type of Conduit
Liquidity line
HVB Liquidity line
Letter of Credit
Arabella 1.8 Customer Yes 1.84 0.18
Salome 1.1 Customer Yes 1.12 0.69
Black Forest* 0.8 Customer Yes 0.82 0.35
Maximillian* 0.8 Arbitrage Yes 0.82 0.04
BUFCO* 1.1 Arbitrage Yes 1.13 0.10
Bavarian TRR* 6.2 TRR No - -
Total 11.8 5.73 1.36
* US $ denominated; €/$ 1.365 ratio
Bavarian TRR as of Sept 5
Extremely low exposure to 3rd parties conduits: total liquidity lines provided by HVB/BA-CA ~0.55 bn
0(1)
(1) Total Rate of Return Conduit
23
1H07 Results
First steps of the integration with Capitalia
US Sub-prime & Conduit exposure
Conclusions
AGENDA
24
Well balanced portfolio with attractive business & geographical mix
Negligible exposure to US sub-prime and conduit business
Solid set of results delivered in 1H07
Full focus on execution, with Capitalia integration proceeding at full speed
SUMMING UP