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GLGi: Triple Play Market Update
Council Member Biography
Joby Upton is the President of Upton Consulting, a company providing consulting services to the telecom sector. Mr. Upton is experienced in wireline, wireless and emerging broadband services. He is knowledgeable in products and services from AT&T, Verizon, Qwest, Windstream, Century Tel, Tellabs, Alcatel-Lucent, Dycom, Mastec, Vyyo, Time Warner, Comcast, Cablevision, Adtran, ADC, and Quanta Services. Mr. Upton is also knowledgeable in AT&T's U-verse/Homezone and FIOS broadband plans from Verizon and equipment vendors associated with telecommunications, data, wireless, and video transmission systems. Previously, he was the General Manager- Supply Chain and Network at BellSouth/ATT. He has also held management positions as an emerging market (FTTX) expert at Pirelli Fiber Cable Manufacturing.
Table of ContentsUpdate on how triple play services are playing out within the plans
of the various carriers
Update on FTTX and the various Passive Optical Networks (PONs) in regards to differences in architecture and likelihood of success
CATV update on vendors, video transmission, and MPEG2, 4 compression
Fiber cable equipment vendor update
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Gerson Lehrman Group Contacts
John AronsohnVice PresidentGerson Lehrman Group850 Third Avenue, 9th FloorNew York, NY [email protected]
Christine RuaneSenior Product ManagerGerson Lehrman Group850 Third Avenue, 9th FloorNew York, NY 10022212-984-8505 [email protected]
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7
US TRIPLE PLAYWhere we are & where we are
going
US TRIPLE PLAYWhere we are & where we are
goingJoseph Upton, Chief Operating Officer, SE Cable-X Holdings USA, Joseph Upton, Chief Operating Officer, SE Cable-X Holdings USA,
LLCLLC
August 22-23, 2007August 22-23, 2007
Joseph Upton, Chief Operating Officer, SE Cable-X Holdings USA, Joseph Upton, Chief Operating Officer, SE Cable-X Holdings USA, LLCLLC
August 22-23, 2007August 22-23, 2007
8
Table of ContentsTable of Contents Major Triple Play Providers Verizon (FIOS) AT&T U-Verse AT&T HomeZone COMCAST Time Warner Cox Communications CableVision Qwest Charter FTTX PON Architectures Video Transmission Internet Speeds RBOC/ILEC Equipment
Vendors CATV Equipment Vendors Fiber Cable & Connectivity
Equipment Vendors
Major Triple Play Providers Verizon (FIOS) AT&T U-Verse AT&T HomeZone COMCAST Time Warner Cox Communications CableVision Qwest Charter FTTX PON Architectures Video Transmission Internet Speeds RBOC/ILEC Equipment
Vendors CATV Equipment Vendors Fiber Cable & Connectivity
Equipment Vendors
US Broadband: Where are we today? (RVA 2007 REPORT)
Broadband Connections by State (RVA 2007 REPORT)
Major Factors Influencing Broadband Growth (RVA 2007 REPORT)
FTTH Providers (RVA 2007 REPORT)
TOP NA FTTH Service Providers (RVA 2007 Report)
Greenfields vs. Brownfields FTTH Consumer
Perspective What can we expect from
Triple Player providers in the next few months?
Conclusion
US Broadband: Where are we today? (RVA 2007 REPORT)
Broadband Connections by State (RVA 2007 REPORT)
Major Factors Influencing Broadband Growth (RVA 2007 REPORT)
FTTH Providers (RVA 2007 REPORT)
TOP NA FTTH Service Providers (RVA 2007 Report)
Greenfields vs. Brownfields FTTH Consumer
Perspective What can we expect from
Triple Player providers in the next few months?
Conclusion
9
MAJOR TRIPLE PLAYERSMAJOR TRIPLE PLAYERS
Verizon (FIOS)AT&T (U-verse and Homezone)ComcastTime WarnerCablevisionCoxCharterMUNI’S AND DEVELOPERS
Verizon (FIOS)AT&T (U-verse and Homezone)ComcastTime WarnerCablevisionCoxCharterMUNI’S AND DEVELOPERS
10
VERIZON (FIOS)VZ
VERIZON (FIOS)VZ
http://www.verizonfios.com/?ref=verizon
FTTP: The Right Choice BUT Expensive RF Video Transmission today Over 1 Million Customers on it $23B to be spent by 2010 to pass 18M
customers Issues with taking the FIOS and then
the Copper connections disappear ($15 DSL vs. $30 FIOS data)
http://www.verizonfios.com/?ref=verizon
FTTP: The Right Choice BUT Expensive RF Video Transmission today Over 1 Million Customers on it $23B to be spent by 2010 to pass 18M
customers Issues with taking the FIOS and then
the Copper connections disappear ($15 DSL vs. $30 FIOS data)
11
AT&T U-VERSET
AT&T U-VERSET
https://uverse1.att.com/launchAMSSl.dohttp://utalk.att.com (ATT BLOG SITE)
51,000+ Customers so far $6-6.5B to be spent in 2007 to pass 18M
Customers by yearend 7-26-07 Connecticut - US Federal Court Case
is hurting rollout speed AT&T offering a year of free DISH network if
you are in a U-Verse planned area IPTV standards’ issues are a problem http://blog.tmcnet.com/blog/tom-keating/
triple-play/att-uverse-doomed.asp
https://uverse1.att.com/launchAMSSl.dohttp://utalk.att.com (ATT BLOG SITE)
51,000+ Customers so far $6-6.5B to be spent in 2007 to pass 18M
Customers by yearend 7-26-07 Connecticut - US Federal Court Case
is hurting rollout speed AT&T offering a year of free DISH network if
you are in a U-Verse planned area IPTV standards’ issues are a problem http://blog.tmcnet.com/blog/tom-keating/
triple-play/att-uverse-doomed.asp
12
AT&T HOMEZONEAT&T HOMEZONE
http://www.att.com/gen/general?pid=7910http://www.att.com/gen/general?pid=7918
JAN 2007 - Won Frost & Sullivan award for most innovative product
WIKIPEDIA: STD DEF 250GB hard drive, 2 TV outputs, HDMI, 2 remotes with built-in keyboards, ethernet, & 3 USB ports
To be available in non-U-Verse areas to 80% of AT&T customers
http://www.att.com/gen/general?pid=7910http://www.att.com/gen/general?pid=7918
JAN 2007 - Won Frost & Sullivan award for most innovative product
WIKIPEDIA: STD DEF 250GB hard drive, 2 TV outputs, HDMI, 2 remotes with built-in keyboards, ethernet, & 3 USB ports
To be available in non-U-Verse areas to 80% of AT&T customers
13
COMCAST CMCSA, CMCSK
COMCAST CMCSA, CMCSK
http://www.comcast.com/Corporate/Shop/ProductOverview.html?CMP=KNC-1TO1Q3GOOGLE43&s_kwcid=comcast|
754672987\
Dividing Nodes, DOCSIS modems, digital switched video
DirecTV lawsuit on HD quality claim 24.2M Customers
13.3M digital cable customers 12.1M Internet 3M Voice
http://www.comcast.com/Corporate/Shop/ProductOverview.html?CMP=KNC-1TO1Q3GOOGLE43&s_kwcid=comcast|
754672987\
Dividing Nodes, DOCSIS modems, digital switched video
DirecTV lawsuit on HD quality claim 24.2M Customers
13.3M digital cable customers 12.1M Internet 3M Voice
14
TIME WARNERTWX
TIME WARNERTWX
http://www.timewarner.com/corp/
AOL, HBO, Turner Broadcasting, Newline Cinema, TIMEINC, Warner Bros
96K Employees Programming and Content is big 26M TWC customers, 13.6M video,6.6M high speed
data, 1.9M digital phone customers: Voice penetration 11%
+3.2M Adelphia customers (.8M to Comcast) Bundled Sprint Wireless with all services Dividing Nodes, Improving Plant situation AOL offering free internet service to slow decline
and churn
http://www.timewarner.com/corp/
AOL, HBO, Turner Broadcasting, Newline Cinema, TIMEINC, Warner Bros
96K Employees Programming and Content is big 26M TWC customers, 13.6M video,6.6M high speed
data, 1.9M digital phone customers: Voice penetration 11%
+3.2M Adelphia customers (.8M to Comcast) Bundled Sprint Wireless with all services Dividing Nodes, Improving Plant situation AOL offering free internet service to slow decline
and churn
15
COX COMMUNICATIONS INCCCI
COX COMMUNICATIONS INCCCI
http://www.cox.com/
6M Customers, Analog & Digital (Lowest churn) 2.2M Voice 3.5M Internet 3.6M Bundled “it’s still the bundle, baby!” Joe
Rooney, Chief Marketing Officer, Cox San Diego launch of HD On Demand movies Selling non-profitable pieces, using the money
to build Triple Play Installing VYYO, DOCSIS Modems, building
fiber
http://www.cox.com/
6M Customers, Analog & Digital (Lowest churn) 2.2M Voice 3.5M Internet 3.6M Bundled “it’s still the bundle, baby!” Joe
Rooney, Chief Marketing Officer, Cox San Diego launch of HD On Demand movies Selling non-profitable pieces, using the money
to build Triple Play Installing VYYO, DOCSIS Modems, building
fiber
16
CABLEVISIONCVC
CABLEVISIONCVC
http://www.optimum.com/order/triple_play.jsp?s_kwcid=cablevision|
809455252
Passed 4.5M Customers, 3+M IN NYC served today
Largest group in one location Offering 4 Lines of digital voice 40 HD Channels (the most so far) Beginning to spend money Rainbow Media gone to Comcast
http://www.optimum.com/order/triple_play.jsp?s_kwcid=cablevision|
809455252
Passed 4.5M Customers, 3+M IN NYC served today
Largest group in one location Offering 4 Lines of digital voice 40 HD Channels (the most so far) Beginning to spend money Rainbow Media gone to Comcast
17
QWESTQ
QWESTQ
http://www.qwest.com/residential/default.html?
refCode=CLMOV000002&gclid=CLbGuYz8zI0CFSWQGgodfX9tLw
Located in 14 STATES, 40K Employees, 14M access lines
VDSL video but not everywhere National Network: Ultra Longhaul, up to
40GB for business QWave Dark Fiber available Future is uncertain
http://www.qwest.com/residential/default.html?
refCode=CLMOV000002&gclid=CLbGuYz8zI0CFSWQGgodfX9tLw
Located in 14 STATES, 40K Employees, 14M access lines
VDSL video but not everywhere National Network: Ultra Longhaul, up to
40GB for business QWave Dark Fiber available Future is uncertain
18
CHARTERCHTR
CHARTERCHTR
http://connect.charter.com/landing/PPC_3Bundle_June.aspx?
ID=135&OriginatingID=420108
5.7M customers in 29 states, 16.5K Employees, HQ in St Louis 1+M in the West US 1+M in the North Central US 2+M in the South US
They don’t tell how many HD channels they have on the website, just that they are great
Selling nonprofitable properties and using the money to build better triple play at major headend cities
Want a bargain CATV Co?
http://connect.charter.com/landing/PPC_3Bundle_June.aspx?
ID=135&OriginatingID=420108
5.7M customers in 29 states, 16.5K Employees, HQ in St Louis 1+M in the West US 1+M in the North Central US 2+M in the South US
They don’t tell how many HD channels they have on the website, just that they are great
Selling nonprofitable properties and using the money to build better triple play at major headend cities
Want a bargain CATV Co?
19
FTTX/PON ARCHITECTURES
FTTX/PON ARCHITECTURES
Fiber to the Node (FTTN)Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)Fiber to the Premise (FTTP)Active Point-to-PointBPONGPON (1.2, 2.4GBPS)GePON/EPON
Fiber to the Node (FTTN)Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)Fiber to the Premise (FTTP)Active Point-to-PointBPONGPON (1.2, 2.4GBPS)GePON/EPON
20
VIDEO TRANSMISSIONVIDEO TRANSMISSION
Radio Frequency (RF) Verizon and CATV MSO’S use the same architecture
Internet Protocol (IPTV) is AT&T’S architectural choice
MPEG2 compression (18-20mbps)MPEG4 compression (8-9mbps)Direct broadcast satellite, DirecTV
and DISH Network
Radio Frequency (RF) Verizon and CATV MSO’S use the same architecture
Internet Protocol (IPTV) is AT&T’S architectural choice
MPEG2 compression (18-20mbps)MPEG4 compression (8-9mbps)Direct broadcast satellite, DirecTV
and DISH Network
21
INTERNET SPEEDSINTERNET SPEEDS
DSL (1.5 to 50+mbps)Cable Modem (5 to 15+mbps)Upstream vs. Downstream: Who
is the best? What can be done?What is the capability of the actual
internet backbone?
DSL (1.5 to 50+mbps)Cable Modem (5 to 15+mbps)Upstream vs. Downstream: Who
is the best? What can be done?What is the capability of the actual
internet backbone?
22
RBOC/ILECEQUIPMENT VENDORS
RBOC/ILECEQUIPMENT VENDORS
TELLABS ALCATEL-LUCENT MOTOROLA (QUANTUM BRIDGE) CALIX (INCLUDES FORMER OPTICAL
SOLUTIONS INC) WAVE 7 ALLIED TELESIS ERICSSON (ENTRISPHERE,REDBACK) WORLDWIDE PACKETS
TELLABS ALCATEL-LUCENT MOTOROLA (QUANTUM BRIDGE) CALIX (INCLUDES FORMER OPTICAL
SOLUTIONS INC) WAVE 7 ALLIED TELESIS ERICSSON (ENTRISPHERE,REDBACK) WORLDWIDE PACKETS
23
MORE RBOC/ILECEQUIPMENT VENDORS
MORE RBOC/ILECEQUIPMENT VENDORS
ALLOPTICAFL TELECOMMUNICATIONSHITACHIPACKETFRONTOCCAMFUJITSUPANNAWAYTELCO SYSTEMS
ALLOPTICAFL TELECOMMUNICATIONSHITACHIPACKETFRONTOCCAMFUJITSUPANNAWAYTELCO SYSTEMS
24
MORE RBOC/ILEC EQUIPMENT VENDORS
MORE RBOC/ILEC EQUIPMENT VENDORS
TELSTRATTXPTENVERATERAWAVEUTSTARCOMZHONE
TELSTRATTXPTENVERATERAWAVEUTSTARCOMZHONE
25
CATV EQUIPMENT VENDORS
CATV EQUIPMENT VENDORS
MOTOROLAARRISCISCO (SCIENTIFIC ATLANTA)VYYO (Includes EXTEND
NETWORKS)
MOTOROLAARRISCISCO (SCIENTIFIC ATLANTA)VYYO (Includes EXTEND
NETWORKS)
26
FIBER CABLE/CONNECTIVITY EQUIPMENT VENDORS
FIBER CABLE/CONNECTIVITY EQUIPMENT VENDORS
CORNING CABLE SYSTEMSOFS BRIGHTWAVE (FORMERLY
LUCENT)SUMITOMODRAKA COMTEQ (FORMERLY
ALCATEL)PRYSMIAN (FORMERLY PIRELLI)TYCO
CORNING CABLE SYSTEMSOFS BRIGHTWAVE (FORMERLY
LUCENT)SUMITOMODRAKA COMTEQ (FORMERLY
ALCATEL)PRYSMIAN (FORMERLY PIRELLI)TYCO
27
US BROADBAND WHERE ARE WE TODAY?
US BROADBAND WHERE ARE WE TODAY?
Current Broadband statsDLS VS Cable Modems are tied
right now in volumes, with DSL gaining
Wireless: EDGE, 3G, 4G? Next?Fiber-To-The-Whatever: Still the
numbers are not huge, several million at the most, but growing faster than ever
Current Broadband statsDLS VS Cable Modems are tied
right now in volumes, with DSL gaining
Wireless: EDGE, 3G, 4G? Next?Fiber-To-The-Whatever: Still the
numbers are not huge, several million at the most, but growing faster than ever
28
BROADBAND CONNECTIONS BY STATE
(FROM RVA 2007 FTTH: Advanced Broadband REPORT)
BROADBAND CONNECTIONS BY STATE
(FROM RVA 2007 FTTH: Advanced Broadband REPORT)
CT 65.8%BB NJ MA CA NV AZ NH UT GA FL NY 58.7%BB
CT 65.8%BB NJ MA CA NV AZ NH UT GA FL NY 58.7%BB
29
MAJOR FACTORS INFLUENCINGBROADBAND GROWTH
(FROM THE RVA 2007 FTTH: Advanced Broadband REPORT)
MAJOR FACTORS INFLUENCINGBROADBAND GROWTH
(FROM THE RVA 2007 FTTH: Advanced Broadband REPORT)
HD Television InternetTime-Shifted Video (DVR’S)Video on DemandVideo Conferencing
HD Television InternetTime-Shifted Video (DVR’S)Video on DemandVideo Conferencing
30
FTTH PROVIDERS(FROM RVA 2007 FTTH: Advanced
Broadband REPORT)
FTTH PROVIDERS(FROM RVA 2007 FTTH: Advanced
Broadband REPORT)
RBOCs: 1,006,500 Customers341 other providers: 436,141
CustomersOther providers= other ILECs,
CLECs, CLEC/Developers, Muni’s
RBOCs: 1,006,500 Customers341 other providers: 436,141
CustomersOther providers= other ILECs,
CLECs, CLEC/Developers, Muni’s
31
TOP NORTH AMERICAN FTTH PROVIDERS(FROM RVA 2007 FTTH: Advanced
Broadband REPORT)
TOP NORTH AMERICAN FTTH PROVIDERS(FROM RVA 2007 FTTH: Advanced
Broadband REPORT)
AT&T, VERIZON (RBOCs)CONNEXION (DEV/CLEC)DALTON UTILITIES (MUNI) IPROVO (MUNI) JACKSON, TN (MUNI)SUREWEST (CLEC)TDS (ILEC)
AT&T, VERIZON (RBOCs)CONNEXION (DEV/CLEC)DALTON UTILITIES (MUNI) IPROVO (MUNI) JACKSON, TN (MUNI)SUREWEST (CLEC)TDS (ILEC)
32
GREENFIELDS vs. BROWNFIELDS
GREENFIELDS vs. BROWNFIELDS
FTTH is Greenfield Architecture of choice
FTTP vs FTTN for Brownfields: Costs are high either way
CATV DOCSIS-To-The-Home for Greenfields
CATV overbuilds on the way: Some by entrepreneurs, some by the companies themselves
FTTH is Greenfield Architecture of choice
FTTP vs FTTN for Brownfields: Costs are high either way
CATV DOCSIS-To-The-Home for Greenfields
CATV overbuilds on the way: Some by entrepreneurs, some by the companies themselves
33
FTTH CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE: (FROM RVA 2007 FTTH: Advanced Broadband
REPORT)
FTTH CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE: (FROM RVA 2007 FTTH: Advanced Broadband
REPORT)
High Internet Speeds Good Customer Service from provider Price for Fiber Service Several Services on one bill Reliability problems from previous Suppliers Telephone Service/Features offered Features available in the future via Fiber Television with many channels Previous Supplier Customer Service
problems Other Features now available via Fiber Television with many HDTV channels
High Internet Speeds Good Customer Service from provider Price for Fiber Service Several Services on one bill Reliability problems from previous Suppliers Telephone Service/Features offered Features available in the future via Fiber Television with many channels Previous Supplier Customer Service
problems Other Features now available via Fiber Television with many HDTV channels
34
WHAT WE CAN EXPECT FROM TRIPLE PLAYERS IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
WHAT WE CAN EXPECT FROM TRIPLE PLAYERS IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
AT&T: Heavy U-Verse rollout numbers by YE 2007 when the BellSouth numbers show up
Watch the take rate, FTTP RFQs VERIZON: Continued Strong Activity
Watch the costs & Copper situation CATV MSO’S: Digital switched video,
bandwidth expansion, node division and node + one work, fiber placement, selling off properties to pay bills/new triple play cost coverage where they want to be
QWEST: They need to do something soon OTHERS: CENTURY TEL, WINDSTREAM, 15k
Independent Telcos are all on the move
AT&T: Heavy U-Verse rollout numbers by YE 2007 when the BellSouth numbers show up
Watch the take rate, FTTP RFQs VERIZON: Continued Strong Activity
Watch the costs & Copper situation CATV MSO’S: Digital switched video,
bandwidth expansion, node division and node + one work, fiber placement, selling off properties to pay bills/new triple play cost coverage where they want to be
QWEST: They need to do something soon OTHERS: CENTURY TEL, WINDSTREAM, 15k
Independent Telcos are all on the move
35
THOUGHT FOR TODAYTHOUGHT FOR TODAY
“ONLY A LIFE LIVED FOR OTHERS IS A LIFE WORTHWHILE”
Albert Einstein
“ONLY A LIFE LIVED FOR OTHERS IS A LIFE WORTHWHILE”
Albert Einstein
