USAID/Kenya and East Africa Planning for Resilience in East Africa through Policy, Adaptation, Research, and Economic

Development (PREPARED) Project

Presentation by Scott McCormick Fifth International Conference on Climate

Services (ICC5) February 28th, 2017

FROM DATA TO PRODUCTS

East African Community (EAC/LVBC)

IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC)

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)/USGS

Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD/SERVIR)

PREPARED Project, implemented by Tetra Tech

PREPARED PROGRAM PARTNERS

Support and work through regional organizations

Promote best practices and innovations

Harmonize regional policies, protocols, practices, and tools in support of transboundary (e.g. climate change adaptation)

Build capacity of regional institutions to deliver on their mandates

Complement bilateral and multilateral programs

REGIONAL USAID PROGRAMS:

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION Mainstream climate change adaptation strategies –

conduct Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation Assessment (VIA) in Lake Victoria Basin (LVB CC Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan)

Support the growth of the EAC Climate Change Coordination Unit (CCCU)

Improve access to and future management of adaptation funds – Regional Implementing Entity (RIE) accreditation for the EAC Secretariat

Improve access to and sharing of climate change information

Improving Access to Climate Information

Regional Climate Information Network (CIN)

IMPROVE CLIMATE INFORMATION MANAGEMENT Conducted Climate Information User Assessment

Assessed Service Providers’ Products

Facilitated Strategic Action Planning Workshop (April 2015) that provided framework for regional Climate Information Network (CIN)

Establishing a CIN or User Interface

Implementing Quality Service Improvement Plan (QSIP) for service providers

Develop a Climate Information Management System and Clearinghouse – EAC IKMS portal

Improving Climate Services and Products

Develop, test, train and use Climate Information Tools – GeoCLIM, VI Mapping, GeoMOD, GeoWRSI for real problems

Developing IKM Portal for Climate Information for EAC

Assisted Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) capture and digitize records from 12 temperature stations and 90 rainfall stations for over 30 years records within the Tanzania portion of the Lake Victoria Basin (14,530 records)

Piloting Quality Service Improvement Program (QSIP) with Kenya Meteorological Department, ICPAC, and RCMRD

Climate Information Services and Products

Climate Hazards Infra- Red Precipitation With stations

WHAT IS GEOCLIM?

CHIRPs Station Data

Smart Interpolation

Blended/gridded rainfall

ICPAC Training Team was developed and trained

5 Partner States trained in GeoCLIM and contributed station data to build gridded datasets (35 year database)

Merged regional GeoCLIM gridded dataset built and housed at ICPAC

Working with Regional WMO office and ICPAC to support GeoCLIM and integrate with CLIMSOFT

Using GeoCLIM for Crop Insurance pilot in Kenya

150 25

35

26 15

INTEGRATING GEOCLIM

CHIRPS Driven- Decision-Support-Tools

Climate data-

visualization and analysis tool for

“climate risk mapping”

GeoCLIM

Basic crop

modeling tool for crop monitoring, forecasting and

“agricultural risk

mapping”

GeoWRSI

Statistical forecasting & Interpretation

tools that allows for automated

“seasonal

forecasts & Early Warning with

improved spatial scale”

GeoCOF

“Statistical tool that allows for downscaling

future climate scenarios

“downscaled future climate

change scenario”

GeoMOD

“Geospatial tool

that assists technical teams and stakeholder identify

sector – specific vulnerabilities”

“geospatial vulnerability

mapping”

VI Mapping

support analysis and inform policies in the EAC region

Rainfall Variability Gridded Data Sets

Using GeoCLIM

Short-rains Annual Long-rains

Using GeoCLIM for Rainfall Trends for 35 year period for Rufiji River Basin: USAID/Tanzania WARIDI and Ministry of Water and Irrigation

No. Vulnerability Component

Factor Possible Indicator

1

Exposure Rainfall i. Annual rainfall variability (CV)

i. Occurrence (frequency) of drought and floods over the years

Temperature i. Monthly min & max temperature

i. CV for min & max 2

Sensitivity LULC i. LULC dynamic NDVI i. NDVI dynamic Human

population i. Population dynamic

Animal population

i. Level of protection (NP, GCA, NR, GR, FR)

ii. Wild animal & Livestock population dynamics

Topography i. Slope (%) Fire i. Fire frequency and

intensity 3

Adaptive capacity Protected areas i. Conservation status (conservancies, wildlife management areas, community based conservation development)

LUP i. Presence/absence of LUPs

Applying VI Mapping for Ecosystem Analyses

APPLYING CLIMATE LENS TO HYDROLOGICAL FLOWS – MARA RIVER BASIN

TMA RESCUED STATIONS

Quality Service Improvement Program (QSIP)

Vision and Values

Service Audit

Service Improvement

Recommendations, Action Planning & Monitoring

Customer Service Training

Validate Service

Improve-ment

Government of Kenya Area Yield Crop Insurance Program

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Crop season with no payout Crop season with payout

Yiel

d (k

g pe

r hec

tare

)

Reference average yield

Coverage level at 80% of average yield

Yield shortfallto be compensatedby insurance payout

Government of Kenya Area Yield Index Crop Insurance Program

Partner Key roles & responsibility MOALF/GOK Development of policy and institutional frameworks

Develop criteria for targeting farmers Develop a system for data management Provide premium support

Farmers • Register for coverage • Procure insurance premium

Insurers • Develop and distribute insurance products • File products with IRA for approval • Pay claims to insured • Arrange reinsurance

IRA Approve product Training and consumer education Coordinate certification training

Banks • Offer credit linked to insurance • Assist in insurance product distribution

Agro-dealers Sell inputs – both subsidized and non-subsidized Sell insurance linked to inputs for inputs subsidized programme

Average Rainfall

WRSI Start of Season

Rainfall Trends

Climatological Zones

Aridity

Determining Unit Areas of Insurance (UAI)

MAM Rainfall Trends Agro-Ecological Zones

Unit Areas of Insurance

Selected stations per Pilot County

From Data to Products Generally, value added products and services more

useful than station data

Products and services must be based on user demands and incentives

Need reliable data coverage for precipitation and temperature – gridded data sets

Users need to be ensured of data validity and credibility

Credibility comes from authorized and trusted meteorological organization

Asanteni

PREPARED Facebook page: htts://www.facebook.com/PREPAREDProject

PREPARED Twitter account: htts://www.twitter.com/PREPARED_EA

www.rcmrd.org www.fews.net

www.icpac.net www.eac.int