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FEBRUARY 2012
Value Investing in Asia
Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference
April 8, 2014
Manage Partnership for Bear Markets
Deliver Results to Limited Partners
Overlook’s Tools
Focused & Independent Structure
Investment Culture
Proven Investment Philosophy
The Overlook Model
Two Drivers of Outperformance • Proven Investment Philosophy
- Superior Businesses - Management with Integrity - Bargain Valuation - Long Term Time Horizon
• Business Component - Delivery of Returns to Investors
• Measured by “Discount” Between TWR & CWR - Single Fund Structure - Legal Limit on Growth of Subscriptions - Commitment to Cut Fees
• Too Many Managers Ignore Business Component
Path to Performance in Asia • Pricing Power • Utilization of Free Cash Flow • High Profitability • Sustainable EPS Growth • Valuation
Pricing Power In Action
15.0%
25.0%
35.0%
45.0%
55.0%
65.0%
0 500
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
Revenue (USD mn) Gross Profit Margin
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
35,000
45,000
55,000
65,000
75,000
85,000
95,000
Revenue Cash Gross Profit Margin
Want-Want Holdings TSMC
Companies without Pricing Power Huaneng Power International Au Optronics
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Revenue EBITDA Margin
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
Revenue EBITDA Margin
Different Utilizations of Free Cash Flow
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
10,000
Gross Cash Flow Capex Dividends
BEC TSMC
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Gross Cash Flow Capex Dividends
High Profitability Combined with Moderate Growth
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Operating Return Return on Equity Normalized Growth
Source: Overlook Investments
Sustainable EPS Growth • Earnings Growth Critical to Long Term Performance
- Last 12 Years at Overlook EPS Growth plus Dividends Contributed 82% of Performance
• Drivers of High Quality EPS Growth - Pricing Power - Low Cyclicality of Business - Ability to Increase Market Share - High Profitability - Earnings Track Record - Strong Balance Sheet
• Preface: Always External Risks that Cannot be Controlled
Valuations • Can’t Ignore Valuation • Equations Offer Benchmark
- Ben Graham’s • Price / Book Value Times P/E < 22.5
- John Neff’s • EPS Growth Rate, Plus Dividend Yield / P/E
- Overlook’s • ROE + Normalized EPS Growth Rate / 4
• Know Long Term Valuation Trends
Overlook’s Long Term Valuation Trends
0!
2!
4!
6!
8!
10!
12!
14!
16!
18!
Mar-9
4
Dec-9
5
Jul-9
8
Jul-9
9
Jul-0
0
Feb-
01
Nov-0
1
Jul-0
2
Jul-0
3
Jul-0
4
Jul-0
5
Jul-0
6
Jul-0
7
Jul-0
8
Jul-0
9
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
P/E Current Year P/E Forward 1 Year
! ! !
Source: Overlook Investments
Path to Out Performance:
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Price to Book Value
Forward P/E
P/E
EV/EBITDA
EPS Growth Rate
Dividend Yield
Net Cash (Debt)/Equity
Return on Equity
Operating Return
Percentile January 2014 June 2013 January 2013
Source: Capital IQ & Overlook: Overlook’s Portfolio by Percentile Compared to Asian Universe (>$3bn)
Virtuous Cycle Provides Margin of Safety
Outperformance Pricing Power
High Profitability
Focus on Valuation
Free Cash Flow
Results of The Overlook Model
• The Model is Overlook’s Strongest Asset - Simple Structure, Effective Investment Philosophy,
Clear Objective & Long Track Record of Success - History Suggests Model Delivers Value
- Capital Weighted Returns ≥ Time Weighted Returns - 9.5 Percentage Points of Outperformance Per Year - Profits Comprise >70% of Overlook’s AUM
FEBRUARY 2012
Value Investing in Asia
Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference
April 8, 2014