World Business Council for

Sustainable Development

Vision

2050

The new agenda for business

SINTEF BYGGFORSKDAGTrondheim, 19. juni 2013Idar Kreutzer, adm.dir i Finans Norge

A collaborative effort involving 29 companies

Growth: The world population is increasingly urban

0 

1,000 

2,000 

3,000 

4,000 

5,000 

6,000 

7,000 

8,000 

9,000 

10,000 

1950  1960  1970  1980  1990  2000  2010  2020  2030  2040  2050 

Popul

atio

n in

 mill

ions

 

Urban - Less developed 

Rural - Less developed 

Urban - More developed 

Global population by type of area and by region – 1950-2050

Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008

Growth: The global middle class is rapidly expanding

About 800 million people

will join the middle class in low and middle

income countries

Degradation: Greenhouse gas emissions keep rising

GHG are projected to grow by a further

52% to 2050, resulting in an increase in global temperature in the range of

1.7-2.4° C, leading to increased heat waves, droughts, storms and floods,

resulting in severe damage to keyinfrastructure and crops

Degradation: Environmental degradation jeopardizes people’s quality of life

Over the past half century 15 of the 24 ecosystem services have been

degraded according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Meeting human demands within the ecological limits of the planet

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

World average biocapacity per person in 2006

World average biocapacity per person in 1961 UN

DP

thre

shold

for hig

h h

um

an

develo

pm

ent

High human developmentwithin the Earth’s limits

2

4

6

8

10

12

Ecolo

gic

al

Footprin

t (

glo

bal

hectares

per

person)

United Nations Human Development Index

African countries

Asian countries

European countries

Latin American andCaribbean countries

North American countries

Oceanian countries

Meeting the dual goals of sustainability High human development and low ecological impact

Source: © Global Footprint Network (2009). Data from Global Footprint Network National Footprint Accounts, 2009 Edition; UNDP Human Development Report, 2009

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

World average biocapacity per person in 2006

World average biocapacity per person in 1961 UN

DP

thr

esho

ld f

or h

igh

hum

an d

evel

opm

ent

High human developmentwithin the Earth’s limits

2

4

6

8

10

12

Ecol

ogic

al F

ootp

rint

(gl

obal

hec

tare

s per

per

son)

United Nations Human Development Index

African countries

Asian countries

European countries

Latin American andCaribbean countries

North American countries

Oceanian countries

Pathway to 2050

TODAY

The pathway to Vision 2050To a sustainable world in 2050

From business-as-usual

TODAY

The pathway to Vision 2050To a sustainable world in 2050

From business-as-usual

2050

TODAY

The pathway to Vision 2050To a sustainable world in 2050

From business-as-usual

2050

TODAY

The pathway to Vision 2050To a sustainable world in 2050

From business-as-usual

Buildings

Vision for 2050

Close to zero net energy buildings

Turbulent teens

Turning the market toward energy efficiency

Transformation time

Smarter buildings, wiser users

Source: WBCSD, Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 2008

Players and practices in the building market

System integration is key to achieving energy efficiency in buildings

Energy and power

Vision for 2050

Secure and sufficient supply of low-carbon

Turbulent teens

Tilting and leveling the playing field for energy

Transformation time

Greenhouse gas emissions peak and decline

Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2009, © OECD/IEA 2009

World abatement of energy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 scenario

A new energy mix to reduce CO2 emissions

It should happen…

Materials

Vision for 2050

Not a particle of waste

Turbulent teens

Doing more with less

Transformation time

Closing the loop

Source: WBCSD

An alternative material life cycle

Manufacturer

Longuse

Reuse ofproducts

Reuse ofparts

Closed loopmaterialsrecycling

Open loopmaterialsrecycling

Landfill

User

Eliminating waste by closing the material loop

Ecological estimates: Getting to one planet by the end of the 2050s

Vision 2050 ecological footprint against business-as-usual How many Earths do we use?

Source: Global Footprint Network and WBCSD Vision 2050, 2010

2.3 Earths (BAU)

1.1 Earths (Vision 2050)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Num

ber

of E

arth

s

Year

Carbon footprint

Cropland

Grazing land

Forest

Business domains for the next decade – Opportunities and overlaps

Building & transforming cities: The development of cities presents significant opportunities

Estimates suggest that by 2030 US$ 40 trillion will need to

be invested in urban infrastructure worlwide

Four categories of cities with different attributes and prospects

Brown(e.g. London,

Seoul)

Green(e.g. Masdar,

Dongtang)

Red(e.g. Mumbai, Soweto)

Blue(e.g. Dhaka, New Orleans)

Transportation infrastructure: Building new infrastructure and vehicles, developing innovative technologies

Source: European Telecommunications Standards Institute (www.wtsi.org)

Intelligent transportation systems (ITS)

Leadership for sustainability

Sustainability is the single biggest business opportunity of the 21st century

Sustainability is the single biggest business opportunity of the 21st century

The most important thing I have learned since becoming CEO is context. It’s how your company fits with the world and how you respond to it.

The most important thing I have learned since becoming CEO is context. It’s how your company fits with the world and how you respond to it.

Jeff Immelt, CEO The General Electric Company

Harold Lee Scott, Jr, former CEO Wal-Mart

Næringslivets fremtidige vinnere er de som i strategien for sin kjernevirksomhet forener globale

samfunns- og miljømessige utfordringer med egen lønnsom vekst.