Volume 1, Chapter 18 Socio-economics and employment · 2019-06-20 · (trade, FDI and tourism) 18.105 ... Gross and net additional employment – core study area 18.96 Table 18.47:

Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 18: Socio-economics and employment

© Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

Volume 1, Chapter 18

Socio-economics and employment



CONTENTS

18. Socio-economics and employment 18.1

18.1 Introduction 18.1

18.2 Relevant legislation, policy and other important and relevant matters 18.3

Introduction 18.3 Legislation and national planning policy 18.3 Regional and local planning policy 18.10 Other important and relevant matters 18.11

18.3 Scoping and engagement 18.12

Overview 18.12 Scoping opinion 18.12 Technical engagement 18.14

18.4 Scope of the assessment 18.16

Overview 18.16 Receptors 18.16 Identification of potential effects 18.17 Spatial scope and study area 18.20 Temporal scope 18.23

18.5 Embedded environmental measures 18.27

Overview 18.27

18.6 Methodology for baseline data gathering 18.31

Overview 18.31 Desk study 18.31

18.7 Assessment methodology for PEIR 18.32

Assessment methodology evolution 18.32 Principles for the assessment 18.35 Approach to sensitivity, magnitude and significance 18.37

18.8 Assumptions and limitations of this PEIR 18.38

Overview 18.38 Engagement 18.38 Baseline data 18.39 Environmental information and assessment of significance 18.39

18.9 Overall baseline 18.40

Current baseline 18.40

18.10 Assessment of socio-economic and employment effects 18.54

Overview 18.54 Activities 18.54 Potential temporary or permanent displacement of businesses or commercial activity including property, land and minerals 18.54 Potential effects on sustainability or viability of businesses 18.61 Disruption to residents and their economic activity, through environmental changes and changes in access to/from employment locations 18.70 Potential temporary effect of employment generation and effects on businesses in the construction supply chain 18.74 Potential effects of new employment and business generated by the DCO Project on the labour market, skills and training in or related to the construction phase 18.82 Potential wider effects on employment and economy through direct, indirect and induced influence of the DCO Project 18.87 Potential effects of new employment and business generated by the DCO Project on skills and training in or related to operational development 18.97



Potential additional effects on employment and the economy through catalytic effects (trade, FDI and tourism) 18.105 Potential for wider economic effects such as inward investment, local retention of business rates, spending and supply chain effects 18.111 Potential effects on the local and wider economy as a result of significant residual environmental effects which have the potential for economic consequences 18.113

18.11 Preliminary assessment of significance 18.113

18.12 Assessment of cumulative effects 18.118

Overview 18.118

18.13 Next steps 18.118

Overview 18.118

TABLE OF TABLES

Table 18.1: Legislation relevant to socio-economics and employment 18.3 Table 18.2: National planning policy relevant to socio-economics and employment 18.4 Table 18.3: PINS Scoping Opinion 18.12 Table 18.4: Receptors requiring assessment for socio-economics and employment 18.17 Table 18.5: Potential effects on socio-economics and employment receptors scoped in for further assessment 18.18 Table 18.6: Temporal scope by effect 18.25 Table 18.7: Summary of the embedded measures in the design and good practice measures and how these influence the socio-economic and employment assessment 18.28 Table 18.8: Data sources used to inform the socio-economic and employment assessment 18.31 Table 18.9: Assessment methodology for the PEIR and ES 18.33 Table 18.10: Number of commercial addresses in the inner study area (Source: OS Address Base, 2017) 18.41 Table 18.11: Floorspace by use class in sqm in 2015/16 (Source: Non-domestic rating: business floorspace, VoA, 2016) 18.42 Table 18.12: Employment by industry in 2017 (Source: BRES 2018) 18.43 Table 18.13: Business counts (enterprises) in 2018 (Source: UK business counts, ONS, 2018) 18.44 Table 18.14: GVA in 2015 (Source: Regional Gross Value Added (Income) by Local Authority in the UK, ONS) 18.44 Table 18.15: Business rates (Source: MHCLG: National non-domestic rates collected by councils in England: 2017 to 2018) 18.44 Table 18.16: Labour market characteristics of the inner study area (Source: Census 2011) 18.45 Table 18.17: Labour market characteristics (Source: Mid-year population estimates 2017/APS – October 2017 to September 2018, 2019) 18.45 Table 18.18: Resident qualifications, 16-64 (Source: APS – January 2017 to December 2017, 2019) 18.46 Table 18.19: Unemployment (Source: ONS Model-based Estimates of Unemployment/Annual Population Survey, 12 months to September 2018) 18.48 Table 18.20: NEET residents (Source: Department for Education (DfE), Number of 16 & 17 year old NEETs Dec 2017- Feb 2018, Oct 2018) 18.49 Table 18.21: Median income in 2018, (Source: ASHE, 2018) 18.49 Table 18.22: Annual apprenticeship starts and completions (residents) 2014/15 to 2017/18 – core study area and England (Source: Apprenticeships geography and sector subject area – Individualised Learner Record (ILR), DfE, 2019) 18.51 Table 18.23: Apprenticeship starts by level in 2017/18 (Source: Apprenticeships geography and sector subject area – ILR, DfE, 2019) 18.52 Table 18.24: Apprenticeship starts by sector in 2017/18 (Source: Apprenticeships geography and sector subject area – ILR, DfE, 2019) 18.52



Table 18.25: Apprenticeship starts by age in 2017/18 (Source: Apprenticeships geography and sector subject area – ILR, DfE, 2019) 18.53 Table 18.26: Future baseline – employment and population in the core study area (Source: Oxford Economics modelling 2019). 18.54 Table 18.27: Expected displaced floorspace (GEA) by use class in the core study area 18.56 Table 18.28: Displacement and reprovision of floorspace by use class 18.59 Table 18.29: Labour market catchment (inner study area) – home locations of workers who live in the inner study area (Source: Census 2011) – purple highlights identify key origin-destination pairs 18.64 Table 18.30: Labour market catchment (inner study area) – home locations of workers who live in the core study area (Source: Census 2011) – purple highlights identify key origin-destination pairs 18.65 Table 18.31: Population in the inner study area (without the DCO Project) 18.66 Table 18.32: Changes to the population catchment – inner study area 18.69 Table 18.33: Access to economic activity for residents of the inner study area - work locations of residents who work in the inner study area (Source: Census 2011) – purple highlights identify key origin-destination pairs 18.72 Table 18.34: Access to economic activity for residents of the inner study area – work locations of residents who work in the core study area (Source: Census 2011) – purple highlights identify key origin-destination pairs 18.73 Table 18.35: Construction workforce – residents 16 - 64 (Source: APS – October 2017 to September 2018, 2019) 18.75 Table 18.36: Construction employment by sector (BRES 2017) 18.76 Table 18.37: Construction businesses split by size (Source: UK Business Counts, 2018) 18.76 Table 18.38: Construction workforce job years by location of residence 18.81 Table 18.39: Construction workforce (Aged 16-64 in employment) qualifications – resident (Source: Census 2011) 18.83 Table 18.40: Estimated construction occupation groups by DCO Project phase 18.85 Table 18.41: Construction skills requirements by DCO Project phase 18.86 Table 18.42: Colleagues projections – gross direct jobs (national) 18.89 Table 18.43: Colleagues projections – gross direct jobs (input) – core study area 18.91 Table 18.44: Multiplier and displacement assumptions 18.94 Table 18.45: Gross and net additional employment – national level 18.95 Table 18.46: Gross and net additional employment – core study area 18.96 Table 18.47: Core study area skills strategies – key themes 18.98 Table 18.48: Occupation skills (Source: APS, 12 months to September 2018) 18.99 Table 18.49: Core study area occupations by sector – all jobs (work place) (Source: APS, 12 months to September 2018) 18.100 Table 18.50: Direct employment by type of employment (indicative split) 18.104 Table 18.51: Catalytic effects- national level 18.110 Table 18.52: Summary of significance of negative and positive effects 18.113

TABLE OF GRAPHICS

Graphic 18.1: Workers who have undertaken on the job training (Source: APS, January to December 2017) 18.51 Graphic 18.2: Catalytic effects 18.107

APPENDICES

Appendix 18.1 Detailed baseline information for socio-economics and employment


18.1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

18. SOCIO-ECONOMICS AND EMPLOYMENT

18.1 Introduction

18.1.1 This chapter of the Preliminary Environmental Information Report (PEIR) presents

the preliminary results of the assessment of likely significant effects of the DCO

Project with respect to commercial land and property; businesses; employment;

skills, training and the labour market; and the wider economy. This chapter should

be read in conjunction with the project description provided in Chapter 6: DCO

Project description and the relevant parts of the following PEIR chapters and

documents where the aspects have the same sensitive receptors as this

assessment (for example, people and socio-economic inequality1) or influence this

assessment (for example, likely effects on the transport network):

1. Chapter 11: Community – assesses the likely significant effects of the DCO

Project with respect to the community, including effects on people and homes,

community facilities (including sport and leisure facilities), public services,

recreation and amenity resources, and community sustainability, viability,

cohesion and integration

2. Chapter 13: Health – assesses the likely significant effects of the DCO Project

with respect to public health, including physical and mental health and

wellbeing. The assessment also considers and addresses any disproportionate

outcome for any sensitive community group

3. Chapter 14: Land quality – assesses the likely significant effects of the DCO

Project with respect to land quality, including land contamination, agricultural

land quality (including soils) and minerals safeguarding

4. Chapter 17: Noise and vibration – assesses the likely significant effects on

health and quality of life due to noise exposure and the likely significant

effects due to noise change (adverse and beneficial) that arise from the DCO

Project

5. Chapter 19: Transport network users – assesses the likely significant effects

of the DCO Project with respect to traffic and transport

6. Equality Impact Assessment: Initial Findings document – assesses the

effects on groups with protected characteristics as defined in the Equality Act

2010. The characteristics of socio-economic inequality as identified by the

1 Socio-economic inequality is disparities in both economic and social resources; it includes earnings, income, education and health that contribute to a sense of well-being (Definition by the European Committee)



Equality Assessment that accompanies the Airports National Policy Statement

(ANPS), (Department for Transport (DfT), 2018) are considered in this chapter.

7. Preliminary Transport Information Report (PTIR) – provides preliminary

information about the likely effects of the DCO Project on the transport

network. This include planned and proposed changes to the surface access

infrastructure; surface access interventions designed to influence travel

behaviour; demand on different transport modes associated with the movement

of air passengers, colleagues and freight; and expected changes to transport

network use and operations as a result of the DCO Project.

18.1.2 This chapter describes:

1. The legislation, planning policy and other documentation that has informed the

assessment (Section 18.2: Relevant legislation, policy and other important

and relevant matters)

2. The outcome of external engagement that has been undertaken to date,

including how matters on socio-economics and employment within the Scoping

Opinion adopted by the Planning Inspectorate (PINS) on behalf of the

Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government in July

2018 have been addressed (Section 18.3: Scoping and engagement)

3. The scope of the assessment for socio-economics and employment (Section

18.4: Scope of the assessment)

4. Embedded environment measures relevant to socio-economics and

employment (Section 18.5: Embedded environmental measures)

5. The methods used for the baseline data gathering (Section 18.6:

Methodology for baseline data gathering)

6. The assessment methods used for the PEIR (Section 18.7: Assessment

methodology for PEIR)

7. The assumptions and limitations of the PEIR assessment (Section 18.8:

Assumptions and limitations of this PEIR)

8. The overall baseline (Section 18.9: Overall baseline)

9. The assessment of socio-economic and employment effects (Section 18.10:

Assessment of socio-economic and employment effects)

10. A summary of positive and negative socio-economics and employment effects

identified in the PEIR (Section 18.11: Preliminary assessment of

significance)



11. The assessment of cumulative effects (Section 18.12: Assessment of

cumulative effects)

12. An outline of further work to be undertaken for the Environmental Statement

(ES) (Section 18.13: Next steps).

18.1.3 In-combination effects are addressed in Chapter 22: In-combination effects.

18.1.4 Reference should also be made to Chapter 23: Bibliography and Glossary of

terms of list of abbreviations.

18.2 Relevant legislation, policy and other important and relevant matters

Introduction

18.2.1 This section identifies the relevant legislation, policy, and other important and

relevant matters that has informed the assessment of effects with respect to socio-

economics and employment. Further information on policies relevant to the wider

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and their status is provided in Chapter 2:

Legislative and policy overview.

Legislation and national planning policy

18.2.2 Table 18.1 lists the legislation relevant to the assessment of the effects on socio-

economic and employment receptors.

Table 18.1: Legislation relevant to socio-economics and employment

Legislation description Relevance to assessment

Equality Act 2010

The Equality Act 2010 sets the public sector duty regarding socio-economic inequalities and identifies protected characteristics.

Protected characteristics include age, gender reassignment, being married or in a civil partnership, being pregnant or on maternity leave, disability, race including colour, nationality, ethnic or national origin, religion or belief, sex, and sexual orientation.

It is against the law to discriminate against anyone because of a protected characteristic.

The DCO Project will affect people and access to employment and therefore the Equality Act 2010 is relevant to ensure that the identified groups are not disproportionately affected by negative effects, and all groups have access to the benefits and opportunities presented by the DCO Project. The approach to assessment of equality in regard to groups with protected characteristics, is set out in the Equality Impact Assessment: Initial Findings document. The assessment of the effect on socio-economic inequality is set out in this chapter.

Planning Act (2008 as amended)

The Planning Act (2008 as amended) sets out the scope, application process and decision making process for Nationally Significant

The DCO Project is a NSIP and is therefore subject to the provisions of the Planning Act 2008. It also requires the compulsory acquisition of land and property. This



Legislation description Relevance to assessment

Infrastructure Projects (NSIPs). It also includes requirements on the compulsory acquisition of land and property.

legislation is therefore relevant to the assessment of effects on displaced commercial interests, agricultural land and minerals. The approach to assessment of commercial interests, agriculture and minerals is considered in this chapter.

18.2.3 Table 18.2 lists the national planning policy relevant to the assessment of the

effects on socio-economic and employment receptors. This includes the key

paragraphs that are relevant to this assessment but is not exhaustive. This relates

to any national planning policy relating to the DCO Project that has requirements

for the assessment of effects on the economy and employment (for example,

National Policy Statements and the National Planning Policy Framework).

Table 18.2: National planning policy relevant to socio-economics and employment

Policy description Relevance to assessment

ANPS (2018)

2. The need for additional airport capacity

The need for new airport capacity

Paragraph 2.16: ‘The Government believes that

not increasing capacity will impose costs on

passengers and on the wider economy. The

Airports Commission estimated that direct

negative impacts to passengers, such as fare

increases and delays, would range from £21

billion to £23 billion over 60 years. Without

expansion, capacity constraints would impose

increasing costs on the rest of the economy over

time, lowering economic output by making

aviation more expensive and less convenient to

use, with knock-on effects in lost trade, tourism

and foreign direct investment.’

The ANPS sets out the importance of the aviation sector

to the UK economy (in terms of Gross Domestic Product

(GDP) and employment generation) and the needs for

additional airport capacity in the South East of England.

The ANPS references a range of economic impacts

including the cost to the passenger and the cost to the

economy. This is relevant across the assessment, but

particularly with reference to the catalytic effects (foreign

direct investment, trade and tourism), which is

considered in paragraphs 18.10.195 to 18.10.214 of

this chapter.

4. Assessment principles

General principles of assessment

Paragraphs 4.4: ‘In considering any proposed

development, and in particular when weighing its

adverse impacts against its benefits, the

Examining Authority and the Secretary of State

will take into account:

• Its potential benefits, including the

This relates to the general principles of the assessment

of the DCO Project. Chapter 2: Legislative and policy

overview provides an explanation of the relevance of

the ANPS to the DCO Project in general terms. This

chapter assesses both positive and negative socio-

economic and employment effects anticipated as a result

of the DCO Project.




facilitation of economic development

(including job creation) and

environmental improvement, and any

long term or wider benefits; and

• Its potential adverse impacts (including

any longer term and cumulative adverse

impacts) as well as any measures to

avoid, reduce or compensate for any

adverse impacts.

Paragraphs 4.5: ‘In this context, environmental,

safety, social and economic benefits and adverse

impacts should be considered at national,

regional and local levels. These may be identified

in the Airports NPS, or elsewhere. The Secretary

of State will also have regard to the manner in

which such benefits are secured, and the level of

confidence in their delivery.’


Equalities

Paragraph 4.23: ‘The Airports Commission’s

stated objective on equalities was “to reduce or

avoid disproportionate impacts on any social

group. At consultation stage, the Airports

Commission carried out a high level Equality

Impact Assessment.’

Paragraph 4.24: ‘The Appraisal of Sustainability

to the Airports NPS sets out an assessment of

equalities impacts, informed by the work of the

Airports Commission. The Airports Commission

was clear that its assessment was based upon

current scheme design, and that a more detailed

Equality Impact Assessment would likely be

necessary as design, supporting measures and

operational plans were developed.’

Paragraph 4.27: ‘For any application to be

considered compliant with the Airports NPS, it

must be accompanied by a project level Equality

Impact Assessment examining the potential

impact of that project on groups of people with

protected characteristics. In order to benefit from

the support of the Airports NPS, the results of

that project level Equality Impact Assessment

The Equality Impact Assessment: Initial Findings

document assesses the effects on groups with protected

characteristics as defined in the Equality Act 2010. The

effects on socio-economic inequality are assessed in the

context of direct, indirect and induced jobs (refer to

paragraphs 18.10.128 to 18.10.159, the approach to

skills and training in the construction phase (refer to

paragraphs 18.10.106 to 18.10.127) and in the

operational phase (refer to paragraphs 18.10.160 to

18.10.194).




must be within the legal limits and parameters of

acceptability outlined in the Appraisal of

Sustainability that informs the Airports NPS.’

5. Assessment of impacts

Skills

Paragraph 5.263: ‘The Government notes that,

with expansion, Heathrow Airport has publicly

committed to ensuring 10,000 apprenticeships

before 2030, thereby doubling the number

currently available at the Airport and in its supply

chain and airport-related businesses.’

Paragraph 5.264: ‘The Heathrow Northwest

Runway scheme represents an opportunity to

grow the number of jobs and apprenticeships

supported by the Applicant and its supply chain

and airport-related businesses, particularly in

neighbouring communities.’

Paragraph 5.265: ‘Heathrow Airport should put in

place arrangements for the delivery of the 5,000

new apprenticeships which it has publicly stated

would be created. Heathrow Airport should set

out the timetable for delivering the

apprenticeships, provide information on the areas

and skills to be covered by these

apprenticeships, the breakdown between

opportunities to be created within the core airport

and those being offered by companies within its

supply chain and other airport-related

businesses, and the qualification level and

standards which they will need to achieve.

Heathrow Airport should also set out how it will

publicly report progress against the target.’

Paragraph 5.266: ‘The Government expects the

applicant to maximise the employment and skills

opportunities for local residents, including

apprenticeships.’

Paragraph 5.267: ‘Heathrow Airport will also need

to show how these measures will be administered

to ensure that they are relevant to planning when

in operation. The mechanisms for enforcing these

provisions should also be demonstrated, along

with the appropriateness of any identified

The approach to jobs and skills has been informed by

the Skills Taskforce (refer to paragraphs 18.3.12 to

18.3.13 of this chapter) and through engagement via an

education partnership (refer to paragraph 18.3.14 of this

chapter). The effect of direct, indirect and induced jobs is

assessed in paragraphs 18.10.128 to 18.10.159 and the

approach to skills and training in the construction phase

is assessed in paragraphs 18.10.106 to 18.10.127, and

in the operational phase in paragraphs 18.10.160 to

18.10.194.

An Economic Development Framework, which forms

part of the Airport Expansion Consultation (June 2019)

document suite, seeks views on the broad approach

Heathrow intends to take to maximise the economic

benefits of the DCO Project. Heathrow will work with

partners and take account of views raised in the Airport

Expansion Consultation (June 2019), to develop the

Economic Development Framework into an Economic

Development Strategy to accompany the application for

development consent.

The Economic Development Strategy will set out an

overarching strategy which seeks to enhance the skills,

employment, training and education for both new and

existing members of the labour market (in the

construction and operational phases). This will include a

credible plan to implement the commitment to deliver a

total of 10,000 apprenticeships at an expanded airport

(as set out in the ANPS) and a skills, education and

training action plan. This will build on the response to the

Skills Taskforce and will be informed by the Skills

Implementation Group. The strategy will seek to ensure

skills opportunities are maximised in the construction

and operation phase, including Heathrow Airport Limited,

the supply chain, and the wider business community

operating at Heathrow.




enforcing body, which may include the Secretary

of State.’

Paragraph 5.268: ‘The Secretary of State will

consider whether Heathrow Airport has set out a

credible plan to implement its commitment to

deliver a total of 10,000 apprenticeships at an

expanded airport.’

5. Assessment of impacts

Land use including open space, green

infrastructure and Green Belt

Paragraph 5.115: ‘The applicant should take into

account the economic and other benefits of best

and most versatile agricultural land. Where

significant development of agricultural land is

demonstrated to be necessary, the applicant

should seek to use areas of poorer quality land in

preference to that of a higher quality. The

applicant should also identify any effects, and

seek to minimise impacts, on soil quality, taking

into account any mitigation measures proposed.’

The effect of the loss of best and most versatile (BMV)

land as a result of the DCO Project is assessed in

Chapter 14: Land quality. The approach to assessing

the economic effect of the loss of agricultural land is

considered in paragraphs 18.10.4 to 18.10.33 of this

chapter.

National Policy Statement for National Networks (NN NPS) (2014)

The need for development of the national

networks and Government's policy

Paragraph 2.1: ‘The national road and rail

networks that connect our cities, regions and

international gateways play a significant part in

supporting economic growth, as well as existing

economic activity and productivity and in

facilitating passenger, business and leisure

journeys across the country. Well-connected and

high-performing networks with sufficient capacity

are vital to meet the country’s long term needs

and support a prosperous economy.’

Chapter 2: Legislative and policy overview provides

an explanation of the relevance of the NN NPS to the

DCO Project in general terms. This chapter assesses

both positive and negative socio-economic and

employment effects anticipated as a result of the DCO

Project.


General principles of assessment

Paragraph 4.3: ‘In considering any proposed

development, and in particular, when weighing its

adverse impacts against its benefits, the

Examining Authority and the Secretary of State

Changes to the M25 are proposed as part of the DCO

Project. The effect of these changes are assessed as

part of the socio-economics and employment

assessment, which includes changes to the labour

market (accessibility to jobs) (refer to paragraphs

18.10.64 to 18.10.76) and business viability (refer to

paragraphs 18.10.34 to 18.10.63).




should take into account:

• its potential benefits, including the

facilitation of economic development,

including job creation, housing and

environmental improvement, and any

long-term or wider benefits;

• its potential adverse impacts, including

any longer-term and cumulative adverse

impacts, as well as any measures to

avoid, reduce or compensate for any

adverse impacts.’

Paragraph 4.4: ‘In this context, environmental,

safety, social and economic benefits and adverse

impacts, should be considered at national,

regional and local levels. These may be identified

in this NPS, or elsewhere.’

5. Generic impacts

Land use including open space, green

infrastructure and Green Belt

Paragraph 5.168: ‘Applicants should take into

account the economic and other benefits of the

best and most versatile agricultural land (defined

as land in grades 1, 2 and 3a of the Agricultural

Land Classification). Where significant

development of agricultural land is demonstrated

to be necessary, applicants should seek to use

areas of poorer quality land in preference to that

of a higher quality.’

The effect of the loss of best and most versatile (BMV)

land as a result of the DCO Project is assessed in

Chapter 14: Land quality. The approach to assessing

the economic effect of the loss of agricultural land is


chapter.

National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local

Government, 2019)

Paragraph 8: ‘Achieving sustainable development

means that the planning system has three

overarching objectives, which are interdependent

and need to be pursued in mutually supportive

ways (so that opportunities can be taken to

secure net gains across each of the different

objectives):

a) an economic objective – to help build a

strong, responsive and competitive

economy, by ensuring that sufficient land

of the right types is available in the right

places and at the right time to support

growth, innovation and improved

Chapter 2: Legislative and policy overview provides

an explanation of the relevance of the NPPF to the DCO

Project in general terms.

The NPPF is a relevant policy consideration for the DCO

Project. It replaces the version of the NPPF published in

March 2012) and revised in July 2018. The NPPF

recognises the importance of maintaining a national

network of general aviation airfields, and their need to

adapt and change over time (paragraph 104 (f)). It also

places significant weight on the need to support

economic growth and productivity (paragraph 8). It does

not however set specific policies for NSIPs.




productivity; and by identifying and

coordinating the provision of

infrastructure;

b) a social objective – to support strong,

vibrant and healthy communities, by

ensuring that a sufficient number and

range of homes can be provided to meet

the needs of present and future

generations; and by fostering a well-

designed and safe built environment, with

accessible services and open spaces

that reflect current and future needs and

support communities’ health, social and

cultural well-being; and

c) an environmental objective – to

contribute to protecting and enhancing

our natural, built and historic

environment; including making effective

use of land, helping to improve

biodiversity, using natural resources

prudently, minimising waste and

pollution, and mitigating and adapting to

climate change, including moving to a

low carbon economy.’

Paragraph 80: ‘Planning policies and decisions

should help create the conditions in which

businesses can invest, expand and adapt.

Significant weight should be placed on the need

to support economic growth and productivity,

taking into account both local business needs

and wider opportunities for development. The

approach taken should allow each area to build

on its strengths, counter any weaknesses and

address the challenges of the future. This is

particularly important where Britain can be a

global leader in driving innovation, and in areas

with high levels of productivity, which should be

able to capitalise on their performance and

potential.’

Paragraph 104 Planning policies should K

‘(e): provide for any large scale transport facilities

that need to be located in the area, and the

infrastructure and wider development required to

support their operation, expansion and

contribution to the wider economy. In doing so

they should take into account whether such

It also identifies the need for large scale transport

facilities and aviation to facilitate economic growth and

development. This is relevant across our assessment,

but particularly with reference to the catalytic effects

(foreign direct investment, trade and tourism), which is


chapter.

The assessment also helps provide context for local

planning authorities to consider the potential effects of

the development on their areas and to meet the

requirements of the NPPF to take them into account in

the development of planning policies.




development is likely to be a nationally significant

infrastructure project and any relevant national

policy statements; and

(f): recognise the importance of maintaining a

national network of general aviation airfields, and

their need to adapt and change over time – taking

into account their economic value in serving

business, leisure, training and emergency service

needs, and the Government’s General Aviation

Strategy.’

Regional and local planning policy

18.2.4 Appendix 2.1: Regional and local planning policy and other important and

relevant matters, Volume 3 presents the full list of the local planning policy

relevant to the assessment of the effects on socio-economic and employment

receptors. This includes policies relating to:

1. Economic development

2. Employment, skills and training

3. Business and commercial interests including agriculture and minerals

4. Wider economic effects.

18.2.5 The local planning policies considered are for the local planning authorities (LPAs)

which form the core study area (defined in paragraph 18.4.23) and the Local

Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) which form the sub-regional context area (defined

in paragraph 18.4.25) for the socio-economics and employment assessment. The

LPAs considered are:

1. London Borough of Hillingdon

2. London Borough of Hounslow

3. South Bucks District

4. Slough Borough

5. Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead

6. Spelthorne Borough

7. Elmbridge Borough

8. Runnymede Borough

9. London Borough of Ealing.



18.2.6 LEPs are voluntary partnerships between LPAs and businesses set up by the

Government to help determine local economic priorities and lead economic growth

and job creation within an area. They produce Strategic Economic Plans which

helps to set out the context for business growth, investment and sector skills

development in Functional Economic Market Areas. The LEPs outside of London

considered are:

1. Thames Valley Berkshire

2. Enterprise M3

3. Buckinghamshire Thames Valley.

18.2.7 The policy of the Greater London Authority (GLA) is also considered, specifically

policy related to the Heathrow/Elizabeth Line West area as identified by the Draft

London Plan (2018).

Other important and relevant matters

18.2.8 The Airports Commission produced an Interim Report (2013) and Final Report

(2015) which set out its recommendations to Government for expanding aviation

capacity and its assessment of the shortlisted options. In its Final Report (2015),

the Airports Commission concluded that the proposed North West Runway at

Heathrow presented the strongest case for expansion and would offer the greatest

strategic and economic benefits to the UK.

18.2.9 English Apprenticeships: Our 2020 vision (2015) sets out the Government’s vision

to reach three million apprenticeship starts by 2020. This sets out the case for

apprenticeships, the need for quality and recognition of apprenticeships, the need

to engage employers, routes into apprenticeships and work, building a long term

apprenticeships system, and funding for apprenticeships.

18.2.10 The Government’s Industrial Strategy (2017) sets out the vision for creating an

‘economy that boosts productivity and earning power throughout the UK’ and

reiterates the commitment to reach three million apprenticeship starts by 2020. It

identifies five foundations which align with this vision for a transformed economy:

1. Ideas – the world’s most innovative economy

2. People – good jobs and greater earning power for all

3. Infrastructure – a major upgrade to the UK’s infrastructure

4. Business environment – the best place to start and grow a business

5. Places – prosperous communities across the UK.



18.2.11 As part of the Industrial Strategy (2017), Government has agreed Sector Deals,

including an Aerospace Sector Deal, to ‘drive transformation in investment and

productivity across the economy’.

18.2.12 A summary of other technical documentation relevant to the assessment

undertaken for socio-economics and employment is provided within Appendix 2.1.

18.3 Scoping and engagement

Overview

18.3.1 This section describes the outcome of, and response to, the Scoping Opinion in

relation to the socio-economics and employment assessment and also provides

details of the ongoing technical engagement that has been undertaken with

stakeholders and individuals. An overview of engagement undertaken can be

found in Section 1.5: Scoping and engagement of Chapter 1: Introduction.

Scoping opinion

18.3.2 A Scoping Report requesting a Scoping Opinion was submitted to the Secretary of

State, administered by the PINS on behalf of the Secretary of State, on 21 May

2018. The Scoping Report set out the proposed socio-economic and employment

assessment methodologies, outlined the baseline data collected to date and that

proposed for the ES.

18.3.3 A Scoping Opinion was adopted by PINS on 2 July 2018. Table 18.3 sets out the

comments received in Section 4 of the Scoping Opinion (‘Aspect based scoping

tables’) for socio-economics and employment and how they have been addressed

in this PEIR. A full list of the PINS Scoping Opinion comments and responses is

provided in Appendix 5.1: Response to the Scoping Opinion, Volume 3. The

information provided in the PEIR is preliminary and therefore not all the Scoping

Opinion comments have been able to be addressed at this stage, however all

comments will be addressed within the ES.

Table 18.3: PINS Scoping Opinion

PINS ID Scoping Opinion comment How is this addressed?

65 ‘The EIA Regulations require an

assessment of likely significant effects on

population. The Scoping Report requests

to scope out effects associated with

increased trade, foreign direct investment

(FDI) and tourism however, the proposed

methodology for the assessment includes

Section 18.10 of this PEIR chapter includes a

preliminary assessment of the socio-economic and

employment effects of the DCO Project. This

includes the effects associated with FDI, trade and

tourism with regard to national socio-economic

objectives. The final assessment will be included in

the ES.



PINS ID Scoping Opinion comment How is this addressed?

consideration of policy positions and socio-

economic objectives of local and regional

authorities. The Scoping Report does not

explain the extent to which any of the

matters set out in Table 10.7 account for

the objectives at a local and regional

authority level. On this basis, the

Inspectorate considers that these matters

should be assessed where relevant to that

methodology.

66 ‘The Applicant states that it is not possible

to estimate “empirically” the quantitative

effect of this Proposed Development on the

wider property market because of the scale

of the development and uncertainties due

to the length of construction and

operational periods. The Applicant however

accepts that there will be effects on

property and compensation will be made

available to eligible parties. The ES should

clearly explain how the compensation

payments will mitigate the likelihood of

significant effects.’

The effect on the housing market (during both the

construction and operational phase) is assessed in

Chapter 11: Community (refer to paragraph

18.4.3 for further information).

This chapter considers the effect of the DCO Project

on displaced businesses and the sensitivity of those

businesses to relocation (driven partly by the

availably of suitable floorspace) will be assessed in

the ES. Heathrow’s Property Policies and other

measures will mitigate the likelihood of significant

effects on these businesses (refer to Section 18.5).

The ES will include details of Heathrow’s

engagement with affected parties, and information

related to the implementation of mitigation and

compensation.

67 ‘The ES should set out details of economic

projections applicable to the Proposed

Development and the construction and

operational scenarios applicable to the

DCO, for the assessment as well as any

assumptions or limitations with the

projections.’

Section 18.10 of this PEIR chapter includes

preliminary economic projections of construction

and operation scenarios applicable to the DCO

Project. The assumptions and limitations of these

projections are set out in Table 18.9 and Section

18.8. These projections will be refined in the ES.

68 ‘The ES should explain the Applicant’s

strategy for securing the delivery of

employment and apprenticeship

opportunities.’

Section 18.10 of this PEIR chapter sets out

preliminary assessments of the number and type of

jobs anticipated to be created by the DCO Project

and measures for enhancement of the local benefits

of this employment. Further information is provided

in the Economic Development Framework, which

will be developed into an Economic Development

Strategy to accompany the application for




Technical engagement

18.3.4 Technical engagement has been ongoing with prescribed and non-prescribed

consultation bodies in relation to socio-economics and employment. A summary of

engagement undertaken up to finalisation of this PEIR is outlined in this section.

Heathrow Strategic Planning Group (HSPG)

18.3.5 Engagement on this aspect has been ongoing with HSPG since February 2018.

This has been separated into two elements (1) Land Use and development of

masterplan, (2) EIA and development of assessment.

18.3.6 Heathrow is working with HSPG to produce an evidence base for joint working

between the LPAs and LEPs in the area around Heathrow. This work is focused

on supporting the recommendation of the Airports Commission in its Final Report

(2015) that: ‘HAL should build on existing commitments to support sustainable

development of communities over several years. Local planning authorities should

support sustainable development through more integrated joint planning across

boundaries’ (page 337, AC Final Report, July 2015).

18.3.7 The EIA and the development of the assessment has been informed through

engagement with HSPG. This has included meetings prior to and since the

submission of the Scoping Report to introduce the technical assessment, define

study areas, set out and review proposed methodologies and sensitive receptors,

and identify the role of engagement and this assessment’s relationship to other

environmental aspects. The recommendations of the Skills Taskforce were

presented to the HSPG in November 2018 and feedback given in this session was

used to inform Heathrow’s response to the recommendations. Members of the

HSPG were represented at the launch of Heathrow’s response to the Skills

Taskforce Recommendations.

18.3.8 Engagement will continue with the HSPG up to the application for development

consent which will be informed through technical notes and/or presentations.

Heathrow Economic Development Forum

18.3.9 The Heathrow Economic Development Forum is held on a quarterly basis with

economic development stakeholders including LPAs and LEPs, local education

partners, local employment partners (including Job Centre Plus and housing

associations), local business groups (including chambers of commerce), the

Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) and government departments.

18.3.10 The aim of the forum is to update economic development stakeholders on both

businesses as usual and Airport expansion activities (the DCO Project), and to

improve Heathrow’s programmes and identify new initiatives. Meetings focus on

education, employment and skills, as well as enterprise growth.



Skills, training and education

18.3.11 Heathrow has engaged with a wide range of skills, training and education

providers, private companies operating at and around Heathrow, providers of

major infrastructure projects, and public sector and industry bodies through the

Skills Taskforce to seek ideas on the skills and employment strategy for expansion

of Heathrow (the DCO Project).

18.3.12 The Heathrow Skills Taskforce was an independent group chaired by Lord

Blunkett with the aim of advising Heathrow on how to maximise the skills and

employment benefits presented by expansion of Heathrow (the DCO Project). The

Skills Taskforce included local education partners, including West Thames

College, West London College, Ditton Park Academy, and Brunel University, as

well as LPAs and representatives from other major infrastructure projects. The

Skills Taskforce provided their recommendations in September 2018.

18.3.13 Heathrow responded with its commitments and actions to deliver the

recommendations in January 2019. Some of these commitments and actions have

informed the Economic Development Framework and will inform the Economic

Development Strategy (which will be accompany the application for development

consent), as set out in Section 18.5. The Heathrow Skills Taskforce will be

succeeded by the Heathrow Skills Implementation Group in the run up to the

application for development consent.

18.3.14 Heathrow is also developing an approach to ongoing engagement through an

education partnership – the Heathrow Skills Partnership – Including stakeholders

across various levels of higher and further education. This is relevant to both

business as usual and for the DCO Project. This engagement will inform

Heathrow’s approach to skills, training and employment. This includes partners

such as:

1. Buckinghamshire New University

2. Brunel University London

3. University of West London

4. Harrow College and Uxbridge College

5. West Thames College

6. Brooklands College

7. Windsor Forest Colleges Group

8. West London College.



18.4 Scope of the assessment

Overview

18.4.1 This section outlines the receptors on which the assessment has been

undertaken, the potential effects, and the spatial and temporal scope over which

these effects are assessed. The scope has been developed as the DCO Project

has evolved and responds to feedback received to date as detailed in Section

18.3. The information presented in the PEIR is by its nature preliminary and should

not be considered a ‘draft’ ES (in accordance with PINS Advice Note Seven

(December 2017)). Further scope refinement may be required to take full account

of the preferred design of the DCO Project and subsequent engagement.

18.4.2 Furthermore, it is noted that since the Scoping Report was published, and Scoping

Opinion received, the title of this chapter/assessment has been amended to Socio-

economics and employment (previously Economics and employment) to reflect the

fact that the assessment includes consideration of social inequality.

18.4.3 There are two potential effects that were originally scoped into the assessment

within the Socio-economics and employment chapter in the Scoping Report that

are now assessed in Chapter 11: Community as a result of the interaction with

other assessment areas in Chapter 11: Community. This includes the ‘potential

temporary effect of employment generation and construction activity on the labour

market and subsequently the housing market’ and the ‘potential additional effects

on the wider labour market and housing market as a result of operational

employment generation’. The effects of employment generation (in both the

construction and operational phases) are assessed in this chapter, but the

subsequent effect on the housing market is assessed in Chapter 11: Community.

18.4.4 Otherwise, the scope of assessment is unaffected and remains as defined in the

Scoping Report and Scoping Opinion.

Receptors

18.4.5 The receptors identified in Table 18.4 may experience likely significant effects as a

result of the DCO Project. These receptors have been identified through desk

study, via engagement with LPAs through the HSPG, LEPs, and via the scope of

potential effects related to the extent of the DCO Project. The list of receptors will

be kept under review during the EIA as more detailed information is obtained

during baseline surveys and other forms of data collection by other aspects and

will be reflected in the ES.

18.4.6 For the purposes of this EIA (PEIR and ES), airlines and airline users are not

considered to be a receptor for the socio-economic assessment and therefore the

passenger benefits and impact on airline profit identified in the Updated Appraisal



Report (2017) are not included in this assessment and will not be assessed in the

ES. The benefits identified include lower fares, frequency benefits, reduced delays

and airlines profit; these are not identified as receptors from an EIA perspective.

These effects will occur directly as a result of the DCO Project and do not require

strategic intervention by Heathrow or its partners.

Table 18.4: Receptors requiring assessment for socio-economics and employment

Receptor group Receptors included within group

Local businesses, commercial interests and

property likely to be acquired or experience

changes in the environment or surface access

1. Business property (businesses and employment

supported)

2. Agricultural properties and land (activity and

employment supported)

3. Minerals activities (activity and employment

supported)

The economy (local, regional and wider) 1. Employment (including by sector and regional

group)

2. The UK economy’s GDP (in particular trade, FDI

and tourism)

People and the labour market (at various scales) 1. Residents of Heathrow’s direct, indirect and

induced labour market

2. Residents of the inner study area (refer to

paragraph 18.4.17 for definition)

Providers of skills, employment and training

services

1. Further and higher education facilities

2. Local schools

3. Local training providers

Identification of potential effects

18.4.7 Potential effects on socio-economic and employment receptors that have been

scoped in for assessment are summarised in Table 18.5. This identifies the

receptor groups (as set out in Table 18.4) that may experience each effect.

18.4.8 The DCO Project is a NSIP and as set out in the paragraph 2.1 of the ANPS

(2018) ‘International connectivity, underpinned by strong airports and airlines, is

important to the success of the UK economy’. While some individual effects may

not be significant in EIA terms, the importance of the DCO Project should be

acknowledged.

18.4.9 As set out in paragraph 18.4.3, there are two potential effects that were originally

scoped into the assessment within the Socio-economics and employment chapter

in the Scoping Report that are now assessed in Chapter 11: Community. As

such, they are not considered further in this chapter.



Table 18.5: Potential effects on socio-economics and employment receptors scoped in for further assessment

Receptor Activity Effect

Construction

Local businesses, commercial

interests and property likely to

be acquired or experience

changes in the environment or

surface access

Displacement/loss or other

changes to land and property

(including amenity and access)

as a result of the land take

Potential temporary or

permanent displacement of

businesses or commercial

activity including property, land

and minerals





surface access

People and the labour market

Changes to journey times

affecting labour market and

customer catchments, as well

as residents’ ability to access

economic activity.

Potential effects on

sustainability or viability of

businesses (including

agricultural businesses)

resulting from the DCO Project

(such as temporary or

permanent loss of catchment

population, change in

environment, or severance as a

result of changes to access)

Disruption to residents and their

economic activity, through

environmental changes and

changes in access (for example,

severance and journey time)

to/from employment locations

The economy as influenced by

resources and receptors as

identified by other

environmental aspects

including minerals (Chapter 14:

Land quality) and heritage

assets (Chapter 13: Historic

environment)





surface access

Changes to resources as a

result of other environmental

assessments

Potential effects on local

businesses or the local and

wider economy as a result of

significant residual

environmental effects which

have the potential for economic

consequences

The economy


Providers of skills, employment

and training services

Temporary construction

workforce and supply chain

Potential temporary effect of

employment generation and

effects on businesses in the

construction supply chain

Potential effects of new

employment and business

generated by the DCO Project




on the labour market, skills and

training (for example,

apprenticeships) in or related to

the construction phase

Operation

The economy


Providers of skills,

employment and training

services

Employment, supply chain

effect and business generation

as a result of the DCO Project

Potential wider effects on

employment and the economy

through direct influence (for

example, jobs and businesses

directly related to the operation

of the airport), indirect influence

(growth in business and jobs

supported in the Airport’s supply

chain) and induced influence

(jobs and businesses supported

as a result of expenditure on

goods and services) of the DCO

Project



generated by the DCO Project

on skills and training (for

example, apprenticeships) in or

related to the operational

development

Potential additional effects on


through catalytic effects at the

regional and national scale (as a

result of improved connectivity

resulting in additional trade, FDI

and tourism)

Potential for wider economic

effects such as inward

investment, local retention of

business rates, spending and

supply chain effects as a result

of policy changes and changes

to the local economy and

business community as a direct

result of the DCO Project





Changes to resources as a

result of other environmental

assessments

Potential effects on local

businesses or the local and

wider economy as a result of

significant residual




surface access

The economy as influenced by

resources and receptors as

identified by other

environmental aspects

including minerals (Chapter 14:

Land quality) and heritage

assets (Chapter 13: Historic

environment).

environmental effects which

have the potential for economic

consequences (including

transport/traffic effects)

Spatial scope and study area

18.4.10 The spatial scope of the assessment of socio-economics and employment covers

the physical area of the site and the study areas described in this section.

18.4.11 As the design and consultation process progresses, the DCO Project is refined

and related environmental aspect study areas are confirmed, the study areas may

continue to evolve to accommodate any changes that are generated. If the study

areas change, data collection may also be reviewed and updated.

Principles for study areas

18.4.12 The ANPS states that ‘social and economic benefits and adverse impacts should

be considered at national, regional and local levels’ (paragraph 4.5).

18.4.13 The approach to defining the study areas has been influenced by the geographic

extent of the area across which potentially significant effects on socio-economic

and employment receptors might reasonably be predicted to arise as a result of

the DCO Project. This takes into account the location and characteristics of those

receptors (namely people and the labour market, businesses and commercial

interests, providers of skills, employment and training services and the local,

regional and national economy). This has been informed through desk study and

engagement with stakeholders.

18.4.14 The physical expansion of Heathrow and related infrastructure set out in Chapter

6: DCO Project description will result in the displacement of businesses and

commercial interests (and jobs associated with them), land or property, and effects

on the catchments of, or access to, businesses which are not displaced. These

directly affected receptors help to define the inner study area (refer to paragraphs

18.4.17 to 18.4.19).

18.4.15 There will also be direct and indirect positive effects, including wider effects of

economic activity on the labour market, employment and skills. These require



wider study areas, to reflect the area of economic influence that Heathrow has

now and will have in the future (refer to paragraphs 18.4.20 to 18.4.25).

18.4.16 The socio-economic and employment assessment draws on other environmental

assessments – such as the community and noise assessments – to identify any

residual significant effects on socio-economic and employment receptors

identified, and as such also refers to the study area for potential significant effects

identified by these and other relevant assessments.

Inner study area

18.4.17 The inner study area for the socio-economic and employment assessment has

been developed with consideration to the area where the most local effects may

occur and is shown in Figure 11.1, Volume 3. This is consistent with the inner

study area used for the community assessment (refer to Chapter 11:

Community).

18.4.18 This inner study area is based on administrative boundaries at the finest possible

spatial scale (output areas) for which National Statistics (for example, Census

data) are produced. This enables the assessment to draw on the most accurate

and detailed demographic and economic datasets available. It also allows for the

definition of individual community areas that reflect distinct communities within the

study area.

18.4.19 The inner study area is used for the assessment of the effects on the sustainability

or viability of businesses, and disruption to the economic activity of residents. The

loss of businesses is expected to occur predominantly in the inner study area but

is also assessed within a wider context (due to the way labour markets work and

where businesses are likely to relocate).

Wider study areas

18.4.20 Wider study areas have been identified to capture the effects on Heathrow’s

current and future commuting area and the labour market in general as a result of

the direct economic effects of the DCO Project (employment generation), along

with any indirect and induced and any subsequent effects on businesses, training,

skills and education.

18.4.21 The wider study areas have been informed by Ministry of Housing, Communities

and Local Government (MHCLG) Planning Practice Guidance (PPG), which

recommends assessment via ‘Functional Economic Market Areas’ (FEMA). There

is no standard approach to defining a functional economic market area, however,

the PPG states that it is possible to define them taking account of factors

including: extent of any LEPs within the area; travel to work areas; housing market

area; flow of goods, services and information within the local economy; service



market for consumers; administrative area; catchment areas of facilities providing

cultural and social well-being; and the transport network.

18.4.22 The wider study areas identified are a ‘core study area’ and a ‘sub-regional context

area’. These are unchanged since the Scoping Report.

18.4.23 The ‘core study area’ is defined as a specific Heathrow catchment, reflecting the

immediate area where the greatest employment and property effects are likely to

be felt. This is effectively considered to be the overall FEMA; following the

Government’s definition of self-containment. It is based on the spatial extent of

LPAs who are members of HSPG2, and LPAs within which the DCO Project

resides (where they are not members of HSPG), validated by comparison to Office

for National Statistics (ONS) ‘Travel to work areas’ and FEMAs established by

each individual LPA, which cover broadly the same spatial area. The core study

area includes the ‘inner study area’ referred to above. Figure 18.1, Volume 2

illustrates the geographical extent of the core study area.

18.4.24 In relation to construction activities, the core study area is used to assess the

effects on displaced businesses and commercial property, the labour market

(through employment, skills and training) and on businesses in the supply chain. In

relation to operation activities, the core study area is used to assess the effects on

employment (direct, indirect and induced) and the effect on skills and training.

18.4.25 The ‘sub-regional context area’ provides an economic baseline and to consider its

capacity to meet the ‘wider’ Heathrow generated growth. It is comprised of the

Heathrow/Elizabeth Line West area identified by the Draft London Plan (2018),

along with three LEP areas (Thames Valley Berkshire, Enterprise M3 and

Buckinghamshire Thames Valley). For the ES, the sub-regional context area may

be used to assess the effect of skills and training in both the construction and

operation phases as well as the core study area. In this assessment, the sub-

regional context area is presented in the baseline for context but it not used to

assess the significance of the effect. Figure 18.2, Volume 2 illustrates the

geographical extent of the sub-regional context area.

National level

18.4.26 Some effects are also assessed at a national level. This is either because it is

difficult to break down the effect to smaller geographical levels at this point in time

2 The reasons for this include: (1) HSPG’s remit is to bring together a range of public bodies and stakeholders responsible for the area most directly impacted by the future operation of the Airport – membership of the HSPG is not limited and therefore the scope of this study area can change to reflect the extent of its membership and spatial extent; (2) The group has established a sub group to focus on addressing environmental (including economic and employment) effects of the DCO Project and mitigation proposals; and (3) LPAs and LEPs are the key providers, guardians and representatives of employment, skills, and training provided to their residents.



(for example, catalytic effects) or because the effect is assessed over the core

study area, as well as at a national level. This is to take into account the ANPS

(2018) requirement to assess at national, regional and local levels.

18.4.27 The following assessment areas are considered at a national level, as well as at

the core study area level:

1. Potential temporary or permanent displacement of businesses or commercial

activity including property, land and minerals

2. Potential temporary effect of employment generation and effects on businesses

in the construction supply chain

3. Potential effects of new employment and business generated by the DCO

Project on the labour market, skills and training (e.g. apprenticeships) in

relation to the construction phase

4. Potential wider effects on employment and the economy through direct

influence, indirect influence and induced influence of the DCO Project

5. Potential effects of new employment and business generated by the DCO

Project on skills and training in or related to the operational development.

18.4.28 Catalytic effects (trade, FDI, and tourism) are solely assessed at a national level.

18.4.29 Where possible, national effects are assessed in the context of the UK (United

Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland). The availability of data means that

this is not always possible: for example, the census is for England and Wales.

Where it is not possible (due to data availability), this is assessed in the following

preference order: Great Britain (GB), followed by England and Wales, followed by

England.

Temporal scope

18.4.30 The DCO Project will be developed in a phased approach meaning that in some

periods and/or some locations both construction and operational activities will take

place in parallel. Three phases have been identified to broadly correspond with the

most prevalent activities that will arise as a result of the DCO Project. A number of

years have been selected for assessment within each phase, the approach for

which is described in Chapter 5: Approach to the EIA.

18.4.31 Immediately prior to the anticipated opening of the North West Runway is the

major period of construction works and also includes the early air transport

movement (ATM) growth of 25,000 completing in 2025. The phase ends in 2026

immediately prior to the opening of the North West Runway. The core assessment

year is 2025. Further information on early ATM growth is provided in Chapter 6:

DCO Project description.



18.4.32 Phase 2 starts in late 2026, following the anticipated opening of the North West

Runway, and continues to 2033. The core assessment year is 2027 since this is

the first calendar full year of North West Runway operations.

18.4.33 Phase 3 (c. 2034-2050). ATMs and passengers are expected to increase

throughout this period, meeting the minimum ANPS target in 2035 and maximising

the DCO Project’s capacity at 2050. Both 2035 and 2050 are core assessment

years for this period.

18.4.34 The assessment of socio-economics and employment considers each effect

across the relevant phases (Phases 1 – 3) for which there may be a likely

significant effect; the temporal scope for each effect is set out in Table 18.6.

18.4.35 For EIA purposes it is necessary to assess the likely worst case. This is only

relevant for effects which are likely to be negative; it does not include the

operational benefits or the benefits of construction (for example, employment

generation and effects on skills and training). For the displacement of businesses

or commercial activity is expected to occur across Phase 1 (between 2022 and

2026), and therefore assessing 2022 is considered worst case for the purposes of

this assessment. Effects related to sustainability and viability of businesses and

changes to residents’ ability to access employment are also assessed during

2022, since this is anticipated to be the likely worst case in terms of construction

traffic (as well as the core assessment years across all phases).

18.4.36 Construction employment, and the associated labour market, skills and training

effects, are assessed in 2023 (since this is expected to be the year of peak

construction employment) as well as the core assessment years.

18.4.37 As further described in Table 18.9, due to the level of information available at this

point in time, it is not possible to include an assessment of significance for all

effects; further work is underway in order to be able to conclude on significance for

the ES. For the assessment areas where it is not possible to conclude on

significance for this PEIR, available information is set out in order to provide as

much information as possible. Table 18.6 therefore outlines the temporal scope for

where a likely effect has been identified, even if it is not possible to conclude on

significance at this time.



Table 18.6: Temporal scope by effect

Effect Phase 1

c. 2022-2026 Phase 2

c. late 2026-2033 Phase 3

c. 2034-2050

Potential temporary or

permanent displacement

of businesses or

commercial activity

including property, land

and minerals

Other assessment

years: 2022 (as worst

case, effect is expected

to occur in Phase 1

between 2022 and

2026)

Not applicable – no new

effects anticipated Not applicable – no new

effects anticipated

Potential effects on

sustainability or viability

of businesses (including

agricultural businesses)

resulting from the DCO

Project (such as

temporary or permanent

loss of catchment

population, change in

environment, or

severance as a result of

changes to access)

Other assessment

years: 2022 (anticipated

peak year for

construction traffic)

Core assessment year:

2025


2027 Core assessment year:

2035 and 2050

Disruption to residents

and their economic

activity, through

environmental changes

and changes in access

to/from employment

locations

Other assessment

years: 2022 (anticipated

peak year for

construction traffic)


2025



2035 and 2050

Potential temporary effect

of employment

generation and effects on

businesses in the

construction supply

chain

Other assessment

years: 2023 (Peak

construction workforce)


2025



2035 and 2050


employment and

business generated by

the DCO Project on the

labour market, skills and

training in or related to

the construction phase

Other assessment

years: 2023 (peak

construction workforce)


2025



2035 and 2050


employment and the

economy through direct

influence (for example

jobs and businesses



2027

Additional assessment

year: 2030


2035 and 2050



Effect Phase 1

c. 2022-2026 Phase 2

c. late 2026-2033 Phase 3

c. 2034-2050

supported directly related

to the operation of the

Airport), indirect

influence (growth in

business and jobs

supported in the Airport’s

supply chain) and

induced influence (jobs

and businesses

supported as a result of

expenditure on goods

and services) of the DCO

Project


employment and

business generated by

the DCO Project on skills

and training in or related

to the operational

development




2035 and 2050

Potential additional

effects on employment

and the economy through

catalytic effects (trade,

FDI and tourism)




2035 and 2050

Potential for wider

economic effects such as

inward investment, local

retention of business

rates, spending and

supply chain effects as a

result of policy changes

and changes to the local

economy and business

community




2035 and 2050

Potential effects on the

local and wider economy

as a result of significant

residual environmental

effects which have the

potential for economic

consequences during

construction and

operation (including

transport/traffic effects)




2035 and 2050



18.5 Embedded environmental measures

Overview

18.5.1 The DCO Project will consider a number of environmental measures to avoid or

minimise likely significant effects. This approach is described in Chapter 5:

Approach to the EIA.

18.5.2 Table 18.7 sets out both the embedded environmental and the good practice

environmental measures that influence the assessment of socio-economics and

employment. The section reference column sets out the section of the assessment

in which the measures are assessed.



Table 18.7: Summary of the embedded measures in the design and good practice measures and how these influence the socio-economic and employment assessment

Receptor Changes and effects

Embedded and good practice measures and influence on assessment





surface access

Potential temporary or permanent

displacement of businesses or

commercial activity including

property, land and minerals

Heathrow will seek to minimise the effects on businesses through its

Property & Land Acquisition and Compensation Policies. Heathrow

has prepared these interim policies to help those whose properties are

potentially within the area most affected by the proposed expansion to

understand Heathrow’s offers of compensation and support. These interim

policies explain Heathrow’s general approach to buying properties and land

and set out the enhanced compensation offers for eligible properties (in

addition to the statutory requirement to compensate for the compulsory

acquisition of land).

The interim policy for Agricultural Land and Property sets out the

approach for owners of agricultural land together with associated

farmhouses and other farm buildings. The interim policy for Commercial

Property sets out the approach for larger commercial interests as well as

our offer for those with small business interests. The interim Property

Hardship Scheme operates in relation to agricultural and small business

categories, where owners have a compelling need to sell their properties

before they would be able to do so under one of the Interim Property

Policies but have been unable to do so on the open market. There is a

separate interim policy about Professional Fees incurred in association

with the compulsory acquisition process.

For further information, refer to the Property Policies: Information Paper

and the Property & Land Acquisition and Compensation Polices.









surface access

Potential effects on sustainability or

viability of businesses resulting

from the DCO Project

The Draft Code of Construction Practice (Draft CoCP) sets out how

Heathrow/the main contractors will implement effective traffic and transport

management measures during the construction phases of the DCO

Project, on or adjacent to public roads, cycle paths and public rights of

way, as appropriate.

A Construction Movement Strategy will set-out the key requirements,

principles and measures for adoption, a Preliminary Outline Construction

Traffic Management Plan (CTMP) and a Preliminary Outline Construction

Workforce Travel Plan (CWTP), including the establishment of a Traffic

Management Working Group (TMWG)

A TMWG will be established with key stakeholders (including Transport for

London (TfL), Highways England and relevant local highway authorities) to

co-ordinate the implementation and monitoring of the CTMP and CWTP.

The TMWG will also be responsible for the co-ordination of the preparation

and submission of the CTMPs and CWTPs to the relevant LPAs. An outline

CTMP and CWTP will be submitted by Heathrow with the application for



Disruption to residents and their

economic activity, through

environmental changes and

changes in access to/from

employment locations

People and the labour market Potential temporary or permanent

displacement of businesses or

commercial activity including

property, land and minerals

As set out in Table 18.2, the Economic Development Framework will be

developed into an Economic Development Strategy to accompany the

application for development consent. The Economic Development Strategy

will set out:

1. An overarching strategy which seeks to enhance the skills,

employment, training and education for both new and existing members

of the labour market (in the construction and operational phases). This

will include a credible plan to implement the commitment to deliver a

total of 10,000 apprenticeships at an expanded airport (as set out in the

ANPS) and a skills, education and training action plan. This will build on

the response to the Skills Taskforce and will be informed by the Skills



generated by the DCO Project on

the labour market, skills and

training in or related to the

construction phase







through direct influence, indirect

influence and induced influence of

the DCO Project

Implementation Group. The strategy will seek to ensure skills

opportunities are maximised in the construction and operation phase,

including Heathrow Airport Limited, the supply chain, and the wider

business community operating at Heathrow.

2. Action plan which seeks to maximise supply chain benefits, innovation

inward investment and tourism. This will apply (where relevant) to both

the construction and operational phases.



generated by the DCO Project on

skills and training in or related to

the operational development



18.6 Methodology for baseline data gathering

Overview

18.6.1 Baseline data collection has been undertaken to obtain information over the study

areas described in Section 18.4: Scope of the assessment. This section

provides the approach to collecting baseline data. The current baseline conditions

presented in Section 18.9: Overall baseline sets out data currently available

information from the study areas.

Desk study

18.6.2 A summary of the organisations that have produced the data used in the

assessment, together with the nature of that data is outlined in Table 18.8.

Table 18.8: Data sources used to inform the socio-economic and employment assessment

Organisation Data provided Data time period Date received

MHCLG English Indices of Multiple

Deprivation (IMD), 2015.

2015 Accessed February

2019 (publicly

available) Business rates by local

authority

2017/18

ONS Census (2011) 2011 Accessed March

2019 (publicly

available)

ONS Annual Population Survey

(APS)

September 2017 to October 2017

and January 2017 to December

2017 (different data available at

different time periods)

Accessed February

to April 2019

(publicly available)

ONS Business Register and

Employment Register

(BRES)

2017 Accessed March

2019 (publicly

available)

ONS Business Counts 2018 Accessed March

2019 (publicly

available)

ONS Gross Value Added (GVA) 2015 Accessed March

2019 (publicly

available)

ONS Mid-Year Population

estimates

2017 Accessed February

2019 (publicly

available)

ONS Annual Survey of Hours

and Earnings (ASHE)

2018 Accessed March

2019 (publicly



Organisation Data provided Data time period Date received

available)

OS

addressbase

Commercial property

addresses

2017 Accessed

December 2018

Valuation Office

Agency

Commercial floorspace

data

2015/16 Accessed March

2019 (publicly

available)

LPAs Published research and

sector-specific data on

skills, business, inward

investment

Dates vary by data source – date

identified when data used.

Accessed January

2019 (publicly

available)

LEPs Published research and

sector-specific data on

skills, business, inward

investment

Dates vary by data source – date

identified when data used.

Accessed January

2019 (publicly

available)

Education and

Skills Funding

Agency

Information on

apprenticeships

2014/15 to 2017/18 Accessed February

2019 (publicly

available)

18.7 Assessment methodology for PEIR

Assessment methodology evolution

18.7.1 At this stage in the development of the EIA, the DCO Project is still under

development and is the subject of statutory consultation. The likely significant

environmental effects are presented at this preliminary stage. Further, more

detailed assessment work will be undertaken between PEIR and preparation of the

ES for the final DCO Project.

18.7.2 The methodology for the ES may therefore develop further from that used for the

PEIR. Anticipated changes in the assessment methodology are summarised in

Table 18.9, with reasons for any likely amendments detailed. As set out in

paragraph 18.4.3, two potential effects that were originally scoped into the

assessment within the Socio-economics and employment chapter in the Scoping

Report that are now assessed in Chapter 11: Community. Otherwise, the

methodology used for the PEIR assessment reflects that set out in the Scoping

Report and is summarised in this section.



Table 18.9: Assessment methodology for the PEIR and ES

Effect Assessment methodology used for

this PEIR

Assessment methodology to be used

for the ES

Potential

temporary or

permanent

displacement of

businesses or

commercial

activity

including

property, land

and minerals

The PEIR presents the best available

information at the time of publication; the

quantum of floorspace by broad use class

is based on publicly available information

on floorspace use that is likely to be

displaced as a result of the DCO Project.

This allows for an assessment of the

effect of displacement across the core

study area, and at a national level, but

does not allow for more detailed

assessment of the effect on specific

business groups (by location or type).

Heathrow is conducting a land referencing

process to understand the nature of the

commercial businesses that are likely to

be displaced (including agricultural and

minerals businesses). This is part of the

statutory obligation to identify and consult

with people and organisations who have a

legal interest in property or land that may

be affected by the DCO Project.

This information will be available for the

application for development consent and

will help to inform the ES as it will provide

information on the number of businesses

affected (including agricultural and

minerals businesses), the quantum of

floorspace displaced, and will help to

inform the assessment of the sensitivity of

the businesses to relocation.

Potential effects

on sustainability

or viability of

businesses


information at the time of publication; this

includes changes in journey times and

delay across key routes and changes to

local population as a result of the DCO

Project.

It is not possible to conclude on the

significance of the effect on sustainability

or viability of businesses at this point in

time since it is not possible to identify the

sensitivity of specific business to change

in population catchments or the

magnitude of the effect (in terms of

changes to catchments).

Heathrow is conducting a land referencing

process to understand the nature of the

commercial businesses in the immediate

vicinity. This may help inform the

sensitivity of different business locations.

More detailed information may also be

available to inform changes to the

catchment areas (labour and customer) of

business locations and to understand any

impacts of other environmental changes.

This will allow for a conclusion on the

significance of the effect in the ES.

Disruption to

residents and

their economic

activity, through

environmental

changes and

changes in

access to/from

employment


information at the time of publication; this

includes changes in journey times and

delay across key routes. It is not possible

to conclude on the significance of the

effect at this point in time since it is not

possible to identify the magnitude of the

effect in terms of changes to journey

times (and therefore the likelihood that a

resident’s access to employment would

More detailed information may be

available to inform the assessment of

resident sensitivity to changes in access

to/from employment locations and to

understand any impacts of other

environmental changes. This will allow for

a conclusion on the significance of the

effect in the ES




this PEIR


for the ES

locations be disrupted).

Potential

temporary effect

of employment

generation and

effects on

businesses in

the construction

supply chain

Potential effects

of new

employment and

business

generated by the

DCO Project on

the labour

market, skills

and training in

or related to the

construction

phase


information at the time of publication. A

gravity model is used to identify where

construction workers are expected to

commute from. The study areas used for

the assessment is the core study area

and the national level (to capture the total

effect).

The gravity model will be refined and

more detailed information on worker

location will be submitted with the

application for development consent. This

may allow for a ‘commuting area’ to be

defined for the ES.

Further engagement with local education,

skills and training providers may also

allow for more detailed analysis of the

effect on these providers, and to identify

skills gaps.

Potential wider

effects on

employment and

economy

through direct,

indirect and

induced

influence

Potential effects

of new

employment and

business

generated by the

DCO Project on

skills and

training in or

related to

operational

development


information at the time of publication. The

study areas used for the assessment are

the core study area (where the majority of

the effects are likely to be felt) and the

national level (to capture the total effect).

The PEIR uses an interim forecasting tool

to produce direct employment forecasts.

Forecasts are not available for 2050.

Further information may allow for a

‘commuting area’ to be defined for the ES.

The assumptions in the direct

employment forecasts will be refined for

DCO, including the base employment

number, efficiency assumptions and

dependent variables (to include ATMs).

This will allow for forecasts to be

produced to 2050.

Further engagement with local education,

skills and training providers may also

allow for more detailed analysis of the

effect on these providers, and to identify

skills gaps.

Potential for

wider economic

Some of these effects have been fully, or

partially captured elsewhere in this

Heathrow will continue to work with the

local authorities to understand the




this PEIR


for the ES

effects such as

inward

investment, local

retention of

business rates,

spending and

supply chain

effects

chapter and therefore are not quantified

(or assessed) again (refer to paragraph

18.10.217). It is not possible to quantify

the extent to which business rates are

likely to change as a result of the DCO

Project since there are so many variables

which is likely to affect this (refer to

paragraph 18.10.223) and therefore the

significance is not assessed.

implications of any Government policy

announcements on changes to business

rate policy and the implications for local

business rate retention.

Potential effects

on the local and

wider economy

as a result of

significant

residual

environmental

effects which

have the

potential for

economic

consequences

The preliminary nature of the PEIR means

that the level of environmental data

(particularly relating to noise and transport

effects) is less detailed than the level of

information that will be included in the ES.

More detailed environmental data will be

available, which will allow for conclusion

on the significance of any residual effects

in the ES.

Principles for the assessment

18.7.3 The generic project wide approach to the assessment methodology is set out in

Section 5.6 of Chapter 5: Approach to the EIA. This has informed the general

approach used in this socio-economics and employment assessment as set out in

this Section.

18.7.4 Socio-economic and employment effects are partly determined by the nature of a

development; the nature of the locality; the sensitivity of the receptor and policy

decisions taken by key stakeholders (for example, the developer’s policy on

property acquisition and management; and the policy positions and socio-

economic objectives of local and regional authorities and agencies).

18.7.5 The principles for assessing potential likely significant effects during the

construction and operational phases for the assessment have included the

following steps:

1. Identification of receptors potentially affected by the DCO Project

2. Identification of elements of the DCO Project including its design and

subsequent environmental effects that have the potential to affect receptors, for

example:



a. The physical location, design and development of elements the DCO Project

b. Construction phasing and workforce requirements

c. Any embedded measures to reduce effects and/or management plans, (refer

to Section 18.5)

d. Heathrow’s PTIR and Surface Access Proposals

e. Other EIA aspect assessments.

3. Investigation of the sensitivity of those receptors to change – this is

influenced by professional judgement and sensitivity categorisation set out in

paragraph 18.7.13, via desk study, stakeholder engagement and public

datasets

4. Review of policy, standards and guidance relevant to potential changes that

may occur to the receptors as a result of the DCO Project – including

identification of changes at the local scale, and in the context of national,

regional and local standards

5. Assessment of any net changes in the context of the relevant baseline

position for both population and economic change, applying the approach to

defining the magnitude of effects set out in paragraph 18.7.15, and

significance criteria outlined in Chapter 5: Approach to the EIA.

18.7.6 Given the long timescales involved, there is the potential for variation in the effects

experienced at different points in the DCO Project delivery, during both

construction and operation. There is also uncertainty in terms of the response of

sensitive receptors to change, and therefore the long term residual effects that

may be experienced.

18.7.7 In order to address this, an ‘adaptive’ assessment approach has been adopted. In

some cases, this has involved considering ‘ranges’ in the assessment to identify

possible outcomes that have the potential to occur and the subsequent

implications for any environmental measures implemented. This will be revised

and updated as the baseline and the DCO Project develops between the PEIR

and the ES.

18.7.8 The assessment is informed by the Equality Impact Assessment: Initial

Findings document published at Airport Expansion Consultation (June 2019) and

has regard to the potential effects and their significance to groups with protected

characteristics3 as identified by the Equality Act 2010.

3 A full assessment of effects on groups with protected characteristics will be in the Equality Impact Assessment



Approach to sensitivity, magnitude and significance

18.7.9 There is no UK legislation or government guidance that specifies the detailed

content required for socio-economic assessments or provides appropriate

standards and thresholds for the assessment of significance of effects.

18.7.10 Effects are broadly derived from the interaction between the magnitude of effect

and the sensitivity of the resources and receptors.

18.7.11 The main sensitive receptors for the economic and employment assessment are

local businesses and commercial interests; people and the labour market; skills,

employment and training providers; and the local, regional and wider economy. It

is not possible to ascribe a single ‘value’ to each of these receptors as effects can

be as significant to individuals and local residents as they are at the regional scale.

18.7.12 This assessment therefore focuses on the sensitivity of each receptor, and, in

particular on their capacity and ability to respond to change. The economic

environment is a dynamic and adaptive one with constant background change and

turnover, for example people moving into and out of an area and changing jobs.

Sensitivity is also subjective, based on the value ascribed to a resource or

receptor by communities. Sensitivity is broadly the capacity of the relevant area,

resource or receptor to absorb or respond to the effect, which may be influenced

by the geographical extent of the receptor, and the context of the effect in terms of

recent rates of change.

18.7.13 The sensitivity of receptors is categorised as either ‘High’, ‘Medium’, or ‘Low’ using

the following broad criteria:

1. High – where a receptor has limited ability to respond to change (for example,

where a business has limited capacity to respond to market change)

2. Medium – where a receptor has some ability to respond to change

3. Low – where a receptor is particularly responsive to change or able to cope

with change without substantial effects on existing status or viability.

18.7.14 The baseline assessment helps to identify the sensitivity of each receptor

(including the ability to respond to change) and then, where possible, the

magnitude (scale) of likely effects has been benchmarked against this using

quantitative information where possible, or qualitative assessment based on

professional judgement.

18.7.15 The magnitude of the potential effect may be influenced by the geographical

extent of the effect, its permanence or temporary nature, the duration and

reversibility of the effect. This is categorised as either ‘High’, ‘Medium’, ‘Low’ or

‘Negligible’ using the criteria as follows:



1. High – where the effect has the potential to result in loss or substantial change

to a receptor or resource (for example, the labour market) at a given spatial

scale

2. Medium – where the effect has the potential to result in noticeable change to a

receptor or resource at a given spatial scale

3. Low – where the effect has a hardly perceptible change to a receptor or

resource at a given spatial scale

4. Negligible – where the effect has no discernible change (for example, within

the margin of error) at a given spatial scale.

18.7.16 The significance of effects has been determined taking into account the sensitivity

of the receptor and the magnitude of the effect as set out in paragraphs 18.7.13

to 18.7.15, in the context of embedded measures within the DCO Project. This is

in line with the project wide methodology for the assessment of significance, as set

out in Chapter 5: Approach to the EIA. A matrix based on that shown in Chapter

5: Approach to the EIA (Graphic 5.4 – significance evaluation matrix) is used to

guide the determination by combining the sensitivity and magnitude of change for

each receptor. The matrix, however, is an aid to assessment and the process of

significance evaluation also involves the application of professional judgement,

particularly in relation to moderate effects in terms of whether this represents a

likely significant effect or not.

18.8 Assumptions and limitations of this PEIR

Overview

18.8.1 The methodology will evolve and be refined between the PEIR and the ES. Table

18.9 identifies the likely evolution of the methodology between the PEIR, and DCO

and therefore includes some limitations of the PEIR in terms of methodology.

These assumptions and limitations are not repeated here.

Engagement

18.8.2 As part of its business as usual activities, Heathrow has ongoing engagement with

businesses that operate at the Airport, education and skills/training providers in the

further/higher education sectors, business groups and LPAs. While this

engagement has included consideration of the DCO Project, and many topics are

relevant to both business as usual and expansion activities (such as seeking to

maximise employment, skills and training opportunities as a result of the DCO

Project), the preliminary nature of the PEIR limits the level of engagement

specifically around the DCO Project that has occurred to date. Further



engagement on specific plans will be undertaken prior to the application for


Baseline data

18.8.3 The assessment of baseline conditions is limited to the availability of data. Some

datasets, like the 2011 Census, provide detailed spatial information and covers the

whole population, but are now dated. Where possible other national statistics and

public datasets have been used to update census data (further described in

Section 18.9 and Appendix 18.1: Detailed baseline information for socio-

economics and employment, Volume 3), but in some cases, this remains the

most reliable and spatially detailed source. The baseline information will continue

to be updated as more information becomes available in prior to the application for


18.8.4 The base Heathrow colleague number used for the PEIR is 72,700 in 2017; this is

the direct onsite employment (people who have a job based at the Airport). Further

work is ongoing to update the baseline employment figures for the ES using the

MAID (Machine Address Identification) system which controls security access at

the Airport, as well as other sources to account for colleagues who are not

accounted for by the MAID system. Using this method, it is currently estimated that

the direct employment number is between 77,000 and 81,000 in 2018. Further

work will verify this figure for the ES; if this new figure were to be updated, this

would result in higher direct, indirect and induced employment benefits.

Environmental information and assessment of significance

18.8.5 The preliminary nature of the PEIR means that the level of environmental data

(particularly relating to noise and transport effects) is less detailed than the level of

information that will be included in the ES. This means that it is not possible to

conclude on the significance for some effects, including of the potential effects on

sustainability or viability of businesses (for further detail refer to paragraphs

18.10.34 to 18.10.63 and Table 18.9); disruption to residents and their economic

activity through environmental changes and changes in access to/from

employment locations (for further detail refer to paragraphs 18.10.64 to 18.10.76

and Table 18.9); and potential effects on the local and wider economy as a result

of significant residual environmental effects which have the potential for economic

consequences (for further detail refer to paragraphs 18.10.227 to 18.10.229 and

Table 18.9).

18.8.6 It is not possible to quantify the extent to which business rates are likely to change

as a result of the DCO Project since there are so many variables which is likely to

affect this. Therefore it is not possible to conclude on the significance of potential

for wider economic effects such as inward investment, local retention of business



rates, spending and supply chain effects (for further detail refer to paragraphs

18.10.215 to 18.10.226 and Table 18.9).

18.9 Overall baseline

Current baseline

18.9.1 This section sets out a summary of baseline conditions that are relevant to the

assessment of effects on receptors described in paragraph 18.9.2. More detailed

information is available in the appendix (Appendix 18.1) and is set out in the

sensitivity sections of the assessment (in Section 18.10).

18.9.2 The current baseline is split by the receptor groups:

1. Local businesses, commercial interests and property likely to be

acquired or experience changes in the environment or surface access –

the effects on this receptor group are assessed within the inner study area, the

core study area and at a national level

2. The economy – the effects on this receptor group are assessed within the

core study area and at a national level; with the sub-regional context area

provided for context for some effects

3. People and the labour market – the effects on this receptor group are

assessed within the inner study area, the core study area and at a national

level; with the sub-regional context area provided for context for some effects

4. Providers of skills, employment and training services – the effects on this

receptor group are assessed within the core study area and at a national level;

with the sub-regional context area provided for context.

18.9.3 For the assessment of individual socio-economic and employment effects, general

baseline information for the relevant receptor groups as presented in this Section

is drawn upon.

Local businesses, commercial interests and property likely to be acquired or experience changes in the environment or surface access

18.9.4 Some local businesses, commercial interests and property would be displaced by

the DCO Project. These are likely to be located predominantly within the inner

study area, but the receptor is assessed within the context of the core study area.

This is appropriate when considering economic activity and labour markets, and

where businesses are likely to relocate.

18.9.5 There may also be an effect on the viability or sustainability of businesses in the

inner study area which are not displaced but may be affected by the loss of



catchment population, change in environment, or severance as a result of changes

to access.

18.9.6 Further detail on the individual businesses that are likely to be displaced and/or

the sustainability or viability of the businesses may be affected will be informed by

land referencing for the ES.

18.9.7 There are 8,220 business addresses in the inner study area; these indicate

broadly how many commercial or other addresses or properties there are in an

area. However, this is not the same as the number of businesses because

businesses may have more than one address, or more than one business may

use the same address. Table 18.10 sets out the number of addresses by

community area in the inner study area.

Table 18.10: Number of commercial addresses in the inner study area (Source: OS Address Base, 2017)

Community area Number of commercial addresses

Bedfont 300

Brands Hill 40

Colnbrook 60

Cranford 240

Cranford Cross 170

Feltham North 490

Harlington 310

Harmondsworth 500

Hayes 260

Heston 890

Hounslow (Central and South) 930

Hounslow (West and Heath) 1530

Iver and Richings Park 190

Longford 1010

Poyle 380

Sipson 30

Stanwell 320

Stanwell Moor 70

West Drayton 500

Total 8,220



18.9.8 Table 18.11 shows the quantum of floorspace by use class in the core study area.

This is split into retail, office, industrial and other use classes. This data is

produced by the Valuation Office Agency (VoA) and includes all non-domestic

rateable properties (all businesses who occupy measurable floorspace that is

liable for business rates).

18.9.9 Where properties do not have a measurable floorspace, they are not included in

the floorspace data set out in Table 18.11. These properties (without measurable

floorspace) still pay business rates and make up 5% of the total rateable value in

England and Wales.

18.9.10 There was 14,119,000 sqm of (measurable) commercial floorspace within the core

study area in 2015/16, of which 50% was industrial floorspace, 24% was office

floorspace, 16% was retail floorspace and 10% was other floorspace. The ‘other’

includes uses that could not be readily assigned to retail, office or industry. This

includes restaurants and bars, hotels, markets, education facilities, and

government offices. Breakdown by LPA within the core study area is set out in

Appendix 18.1.

18.9.11 Mineral sites and agriculture buildings and land are within both the industrial

category and the other category. It may also be that some activities fall outside of

the measurable floorspace data.

18.9.12 The level of commercial floorspace in the core study area has stayed broadly

consistent between 2000/2001 and 2015/16: during this period there has been a

minimum of 13,823,000 sqm of commercial floorspace (in 2009/10 during the

recession) and a maximum of 14,444,000 sqm in 2003/04.

Table 18.11: Floorspace by use class in sqm in 2015/16 (Source: Non-domestic rating: business floorspace, VoA, 2016)

Retail Office Industrial Other Total

Core study area 2,319,000 3,339,000 7,018,000 1,443,000 14,119,000

16% 24% 50% 10% 100%

National

(England and Wales*)

105,031,000 89,037,000 321,855,000 61,789,000 577,713,000

18% 15% 56% 11% 100%

*NB: the VoA collects data for England and Wales and therefore the national level presented here is England

and Wales.

18.9.13 Figure 14.8, Volume 2 (Chapter 14: Land quality) shows the provisional

agricultural land classification and Figure 14.9, Volume 2 (Chapter 14: Land

quality) site specific detailed agricultural land classification within the draft DCO

limits; this is split into grade one to five agricultural land (including 3a and 3b for



the detailed agricultural land classification, as well as non-agricultural and urban

land. Figure 14.11, Volume 2 (Chapter 14: Land quality) shows the location of

the mineral sites and mineral safeguarded areas.

The economy

Employment

18.9.14 There are 860,000 people in employment within 82,400 businesses in the core

study area (refer to Table 18.12 and Table 18.13)

18.9.15 Figure 18.3, Volume 2 shows employment density across the core study area;

this shows that the key employment locations are in Uxbridge (in the London

Borough of Hillingdon), Chiswick and Brentford (in the London Borough of

Hounslow), Ealing (in the London Borough of Ealing) and Slough (in Slough

Borough).

18.9.16 Table 18.12 shows the breakdown of employment by industry: transport and

storage which is notably high within the core study area (12%), compared to the

sub-regional context area (6%) and the national average (5%). This is likely to be

driven partly by the businesses supported by the Airport and its supply chain.

Table 18.12: Employment by industry in 2017 (Source: BRES 2018)

Core study area Sub-regional

context area

National (GB)

average

Transport and storage 12% 6% 5%

Business administration and support services 11% 9% 9%

Health 9% 11% 13%

Professional, scientific and technical 9% 10% 9%

Retail 8% 9% 9%

Education 8% 8% 9%

Information and communication 8% 9% 4%

Accommodation and food 7% 7% 7%

Wholesale 6% 6% 4%

Construction 5% 5% 5%

Other 18% 21% 26%

Total employment (2017) 100% 100% 100%

860,000 2,061,500 30,593,000

*NB: the BRES collects data for GB and therefore the national level presented here is GB level. BRES is a survey of

businesses on Pay As You Earn (PAYE) and therefore may miss very small businesses not registers for PAYE or Value

Added Tax (VAT). Note totals may not sum due to rounding.



Table 18.13: Business counts (enterprises) in 2018 (Source: UK business counts, ONS, 2018)

Core study area Sub-regional context

area

National (UK)

average

Number of businesses (2018) 82,400 n/a 2,669,400

GVA

18.9.17 GVA is a measure of the increase in the value of the economy due to the

production of goods and services. The total GVA of the national (UK) economy

was £1,651bn in 2015, of which £58bn (4%) was within the core study area.

Table 18.14: GVA in 2015 (Source: Regional Gross Value Added (Income) by Local Authority in the UK, ONS)

Core study area National (UK) average

GVA (2015) £58bn £1,651bn

Proportion of national 4% 100%

Business rates

18.9.18 In 2017/18 there was £24bn of business rates collected in England allowing for the

cost of collection, of which £1.1bn (5%) was collected in the core study area.

Table 18.15: Business rates (Source: MHCLG: National non-domestic rates collected by councils in England: 2017 to 2018)

Core study area National (England) average

Business rates (2017/18) £1.1bn £24bn

Proportion of national 5% 100%


Labour market of the inner study area

18.9.19 The inner study area is used to assess residents’ travel to work in order to access

economic activity. It is therefore important to consider where residents of the inner

study area work. Based on the 2011 Census (the latest) available data (refer to

Table 18.16), there are 193,400 residents in the inner study area of which 131,800

are of working age (16 to 64).



Table 18.16: Labour market characteristics of the inner study area (Source: Census 2011)

Inner study area

Total population 193,400

Working age

population (16 to

64)

131,800

All resident (16+)

who commute

within England

and Wales

77,510

Of which 27,320 (35%) work within the inner study area and a further 26,760 (35%)

work elsewhere in the core study area (total of 54,100 in the core study area,

equivalent to 70%) refer to Table 18.31 and Table 18.32 for further detail on

commuting patterns.

Labour market characteristics of wider study areas

18.9.20 The core study area and national spatial scale are used to assess effects on the

labour market as a result of direct, indirect and induced employment generation.

The sub-regional context area provides further context and comparison.

18.9.21 The economic activity and employment rates in the core study area are slightly

above the national rates but slightly below the sub-regional context area (refer to

Table 18.17). There is higher level of qualifications within both the core study area

and the sub-regional context area compared to national average (refer to Table

18.18), with almost half of working age residents having qualifications of National

Vocational Qualifications (NVQ) 4 or above (47% of the core study area and 48%

in the sub-regional context area).

18.9.22 Research by the ONS has previously indicated a tendency for the APS to over-

estimate the number of highly-qualified people and under-estimate the number of

people with no qualifications compared to the census, due to differences in

methodology. Nonetheless, the census data also indicates that the core study area

has higher qualifications than average: this shows 36% of working age residents

have qualification of NVQ4 or above, compared to 30% across England. Further

detail is available in Appendix 18.1.

Table 18.17: Labour market characteristics (Source: Mid-year population estimates 2017/APS – October 2017 to September 2018, 2019)

Core study area Sub-regional context area

National (UK) average

Total population 1,605,300 4,020,800 66,040,200

Working age population (aged 16 to 64) 1,031,000 2,536,000 41,545,600

Economic activity rate (aged 16 to 64) 80% 82% 78%

Employment rate (aged 16 to 64) 77% 79% 75%



Table 18.18: Resident qualifications, 16-64 (Source: APS – January 2017 to December 2017, 2019)

Core study area Sub-regional

context area

National

(UK) average

% with NVQ4+ 47% 48% 38%

% with NVQ3 16% 16% 17%

Trade apprenticeship 2% 2% 3%

% with NVQ2 12% 13% 16%

% with NVQ1 8% 9% 11%

% with other qualifications 10% 7% 7%

% with no qualifications 6% 5% 8%

Deprivation, unemployment and social inequality in the core study area

18.9.23 The LPAs have assessed social inequality within their respective Joint Strategic

Needs Assessments (JSNAs) (refer to Appendix 11.3: Effects on socio-

economic deprivation, inequality and low-income groups, Volume 3 for

further information). These identify two broad reasons for inequality: barriers to

employment (particularly highlighted for young people, those from vulnerable

groups, and women) and low skilled employment resulting in a reliance on in-work

benefits.

18.9.24 The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD, 2015) measures relative levels of

deprivation in 32,844 small areas or neighbourhoods (Lower Super Output Areas –

LSOAs) across England. The IMD is made up of seven domains: income

deprivation; employment deprivation; health deprivation and disability; education,

skills and training deprivation; crime; barriers to housing and services; and living

environment deprivation.

18.9.25 Figure 11.3, Volume 2 shows that there is a relatively low level of deprivation

within the inner study area (across all domains). However, there are pockets of

higher deprivation within the inner study area: Hounslow (West and Heath), West

Drayton, Hayes, Heston, Cranford, Bedfont, Colnbrook and Brands Hill all have

areas within the top 20% most deprived in the country. A LSOA in the north west

of the London Borough of Hounslow (Hounslow West and Heath) is within the 10%

most deprived in the country.

18.9.26 Across all domains, Figure 18.4, Volume 2 shows that there are relatively low

levels of deprivation across the core study area, but with pockets of higher

deprivation in the Slough Borough and in the east of the core study area (in the



London Borough of Ealing, the London Borough of Hillingdon and the London

Borough of Hounslow).

18.9.27 Specific domains that are most relevant to this assessment are income deprivation

(refer to Figure 18.5, Volume 2), employment deprivation (refer to Figure 18.6,

Volume 2) and education, skills and training deprivation (refer to Figure 18.7,

Volume 2).

18.9.28 The income deprivation domain measures the proportion of the population

experiencing deprivation relating to low income. The definition of low income used

includes both those people that are out-of-work, and those that are in work but

who have low earnings (and who satisfy the respective means tests). The core

study area’s performance on income deprivation (refer to Figure 18.5), generally

mirrors the geographical distribution of the average IMD (all domains), albeit with

slightly higher levels of income deprivation (compared to the average IMD).

Income deprivation is concentrated to the east of the core study area (in the

London Borough of Ealing, the London Borough of Hillingdon and the London

Borough of Hounslow) and in the Slough Borough.

18.9.29 The employment deprivation domain measures the proportion of the working-age

population in an area involuntarily excluded from the labour market. This includes

people who would like to work but are unable to do so due to unemployment,

sickness or disability, or caring responsibilities. The core study area’s performance

on employment deprivation (refer to Figure 18.6) again generally mirrors the

geographical distribution of the average IMD (all domains), but with lower levels of

employment deprivation (compared to the average IMD). Employment deprivation

is concentrated to the east of the core study area, particularly in the London

Borough of Ealing.

18.9.30 The education, skills and training deprivation domain measures the lack of

attainment and skills in the local population. The indicators fall into two sub-

domains: one relating to children and young people and one relating to adult skills.

The core study area generally performs better than the average IMD (all domains)

on education, skills and training deprivation (refer to Figure 18.7). There are

however pockets of higher deprivation of this type in the north of Spelthorne

Borough and west of the London Borough of Hounslow (within the inner study area

in Stanwell, Bedfont, Cranford, Heston, Hounslow West and Heath, and Hounslow

Central and South), in Slough Borough and in the south of the London Borough of

Hillingdon (within the inner study area in Brands Hill, West Drayton and Hayes).

18.9.31 There are areas that are within the top 10% of deprivation nationally (across all

domains) in the London Borough of Hounslow (in Hounslow West and Heath

within the inner study area) and areas in London Borough of Ealing (outside of the

inner study area). All of these areas are in the top 10% for one or more of the



three domains outlined above (income deprivation, employment deprivation, or

education, skills and training deprivation). All areas that are within the top 10% of

deprivation nationally (across all domains) are also within the top 10% nationally

for income deprivation.

18.9.32 ONS model-based estimates of unemployment based on APS and claimant data,

indicate that 4% of economically active residents aged 16 and over within the core

study area are unemployed (refer to Table 18.19). The unemployment rate is

highest in the London Borough of Ealing and the London Borough of Hounslow

(5%) and lowest in Elmbridge Borough, Runnymede Borough, South Bucks

District, Spelthorne Borough and the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead

(3%). Further detail is set out in Appendix 18.1.

Table 18.19: Unemployment (Source: ONS Model-based Estimates of Unemployment/Annual Population Survey, 12 months to September 2018)

Area Unemployed residents (16+) Unemployed residents (as

percentage of economically

active)

Elmbridge Borough 1,700 3%

Runnymede Borough 1,200 3%

Slough Borough 2,800 4%

South Bucks District 1,100 3%

Spelthorne Borough 1,500 3%

Royal Borough of Windsor and

Maidenhead

2,200 3%

London Borough of Ealing 9,900 5%

London Borough of Hillingdon 6,600 4%

London Borough of Hounslow 7,800 5%

Core study area total 34,800 4%

National (England) total 1,182,800 4%

National (UK) total 1,400,900 4%

18.9.33 The number of Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET) residents in the

core study area and England is set out in Table 18.20. This suggests that the

number of 16 and 17 year olds NEET is highest in the Royal Borough of Windsor

and Maidenhead (however, this is due to very high numbers of young people

whose activities are not known which may be a data quality issue; refer to

Appendix 18.1 for more information) and Buckinghamshire (which includes South

Bucks District). The highest rate of known NEETs in 2018 was in the Slough



Borough, with 2.3% of 16-17-year-olds known to be NEET, however, this is less

than the England average of 2.7%.

Table 18.20: NEET residents (Source: Department for Education (DfE), Number of 16 & 17 year old NEETs Dec 2017- Feb 2018, Oct 2018)

Area NEETS aged 16-17 (incl.

activity not known), 2018

% of which

known to be

NEET

% of which

activity not

known

London Borough of Ealing 170 (2.3%) 1.2% 1.1%

London Borough of Hillingdon 340 (4.9%) 2.1% 2.8%

London Borough of Hounslow 270 (4.8%) 2.2% 2.6%

Buckinghamshire (includes South

Bucks District)

730 (6.4%) 1.4% 5.0%

Slough Borough 120 (3.2%) 2.3% 0.9%

Surrey (includes Spelthorne Borough,

Runnymede Borough, Elmbridge

Borough)

960 (4.4%) 1.3% 3.0%


Maidenhead

470 (19.3%) 0.8% 18.6%

London 8,650 (5.0%) 1.8% 3.2%

South East 12,310 (6.8%) 2.2% 4.6%

England 68,070 (6.0%) 2.7% 3.3%

* Known NEET residents is where the activity of the resident is known; not known NEET residents is where

they are not registered, are not contactable (no home address) or they do not disclose information ** NB

Data is rounded to the nearest 5 and totals/percentages may not sum due to rounding.

18.9.34 The ASHE indicates that median incomes are lowest in the London Borough of

Hillingdon and highest in the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead. Median

incomes in all areas are higher than the median for England overall, although

median incomes in London Borough of Ealing, London Borough of Hillingdon and

London Borough of Hounslow are lower than for London overall (which is expected

given they are Outer London boroughs).

Table 18.21: Median income in 2018, (Source: ASHE, 2018)

Area Median annual gross pay, 2018

London Borough of Ealing £27,750

London Borough of Hillingdon £26,445

London Borough of Hounslow £27,495



Area Median annual gross pay, 2018

Elmbridge Borough £33,455

Runnymede Borough £27,110

Slough Borough £28,255

South Bucks District £29,500

Spelthorne Borough £28,205

Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead £33,520

London £30,310

South East £26,250

England £24,298

Providers of skills, employment and training services

Skills providers

18.9.35 Skills providers in the core study area include schools, further education and

higher education providers. There are 359 state-funded primary schools (refer to

Figure 18.8, Volume 2), 107 state-funded secondary schools in the core study

area (81 of which have sixth form provision) (refer to Figure 18.9, Volume 2) and

there are 28 higher and further education providers in the core study area as

shown in Figure 18.10, Volume 2.

On the job training

18.9.36 Residents in the core study area are more likely to have undertaken on the job

training compared to residents of the UK as a whole (refer to Graphic 18.1).

Higher skilled residents are more likely to have undertaken training (31% across

the core study area compared with 30% across the UK) than lower skilled

residents (22% across the core study area compared with 20% across the UK).



Graphic 18.1: Workers who have undertaken on the job training (Source: APS, January to December 2017)

*NB survey conducted over the course of a year, but training specified for the 13 week prior the person being

asked the question.

18.9.37 Apprenticeships policy is devolved. There are therefore separate arrangements for

supporting apprentices, and data is recorded separately for England, Scotland,

Wales and Northern Ireland. Apprenticeship policy for England is the most relevant

to the DCO Project.

18.9.38 The most recent data on apprenticeship starts and completions shows that there

were 375,760 apprentices who started training in 2017/18 across England, of

which 7,210 are residents of the core study area. In the same period 276,160

apprentices completed training across England, while 4,540 apprentices from the

core study area completed training. The number of apprenticeship starts and

completions in the core study area and nationally over the last four years is shown

in Table 18.22. This gives an average completion rate over the four years of 58%

across England, and 55% in the core study area.

Table 18.22: Annual apprenticeship starts and completions (residents) 2014/15 to 2017/18 – core study area and England (Source: Apprenticeships geography and sector subject area – Individualised Learner Record (ILR), DfE, 2019)

Starts (2014/15)

Achievements (2014/15)

Starts (2015/16)


Starts (2016/17)


Starts (2017/18)


Core study area

8,790 4,540 8,720 4,550 8,460 4,590 7,210 4,540

National (England) average

499,890 260,900 509,360 271,660 494,880 277,790 375,760 276,160

*NB: Apprenticeship data is collected at an England level

31%

22%

30%

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

NVQ4+ NVQ3 and below

Core Study Area United Kingdom



18.9.39 Apprenticeships are split into intermediate level qualifications (equivalent to five

GCSEs), higher qualifications (equivalent to two A-Levels) or advanced

qualifications (equivalent to foundation degree level or higher). Table 18.23 shows

that a higher proportion of apprenticeship starts in the core study area over the last

year (2017/18) were in higher (15%) and advanced (49%) qualifications, compared

to the average across England (13% and 44% respectively).

Table 18.23: Apprenticeship starts by level in 2017/18 (Source: Apprenticeships geography and sector subject area – ILR, DfE, 2019)

Intermediate Higher Advanced

Core study area 36% 15% 49%

National (England) average 43% 13% 44%

*NB: Apprenticeship data is collected at an England level

18.9.40 Table 18.24 provides a summary of apprenticeship starts by sector. Approximately

one third of all starts in the core study area (33%) and England (30%) were in

business, administration and law, and just under a quarter were in health, public

services and care (23% in the core study area and 24% in England).

Table 18.24: Apprenticeship starts by sector in 2017/18 (Source: Apprenticeships geography and sector subject area – ILR, DfE, 2019)

Core study area National (England)

average

Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care 1% 2%

Arts, Media and Publishing 1% 0%

Business, Administration and Law 33% 30%

Construction, Planning and the Built Environment 4% 6%

Education and Training 2% 1%

Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies 11% 16%

Health, Public Services and Care 23% 24%

Information and Communication Technology 7% 5%

Leisure, Travel and Tourism 3% 2%

Retail and Commercial Enterprise 16% 14%

Total 100% 100%

*NB: Apprenticeship data is collected at an England level. Totals/percentages may not sum due to rounding.



18.9.41 Table 18.25 shows analysis of apprenticeship starts by age of apprentice. A

higher proportion of apprentices in the core study area are aged 25 or over (45%)

compared to across England (41%).

Table 18.25: Apprenticeship starts by age in 2017/18 (Source: Apprenticeships geography and sector subject area – ILR, DfE, 2019)

Core study area National (England) average

Aged 16-18 24% 28%

Aged 19-24 32% 30%

Aged 25+ 45% 41%

Total 100% 100%

*NB: Apprenticeship data is collected at an England level. Totals/percentages may not sum due to rounding.

Future baseline

18.9.42 Modelling undertaken by Oxford Economics shows that population and

employment in the core study area are expected to grow in the future baseline

(refer to Table 18.26).

18.9.43 Population is expected to increase from 1,605,000 in 2017 to 1,700,000 in 2025

(Phase 1), 1,718,000 in 2027 (Phase 2), 1,780,000 in 2035 and 1,818,000 in 2040

(Phase 3). It is noted that Oxford Economics modelling does not project beyond

2041. This represents 13% growth across the whole period (2017 to 2040),

equivalent to 213,000 additional people.

18.9.44 Employment in the Oxford Economics model is higher than BRES due to different

data used4: in 2017 the BRES estimate of employment in the core study area was

860,000 while the Oxford Economics estimate is 966,000. This results in slightly

different growth trajectories.

18.9.45 The Oxford Economics modelling estimates employment to increase to 1,005,000

in 2025 (Phase 1), 1,013,000 in 2027 (Phase 2), 1,035,000 in 2035 and 1,047,000

in 2040 (Phase 3). This represents 8% growth across the whole period (2017 to

2040), equivalent to 82,000 additional jobs.

18.9.46 Applying the Oxford Economics growth rates to the BRES data would result in

slightly lower levels of employment of 895,000 in 2025 (Phase 1), 902,000 in 2027

(Phase 2), 922,000 in 2035 and 933,000 in 2040 (Phase 3). This is equivalent to

73,000 additional jobs between 2017 and 2040.

4 Oxford Economics uses a combination of BRES and ONS workforce jobs



18.9.47 Therefore, there are assumed to be between 73,000 and 82,000 additional jobs in

the core study area between 2017 and 2040 (without the DCO Project).

Table 18.26: Future baseline – employment and population in the core study area (Source: Oxford Economics modelling 2019).

2017 2025 2027 2035 2040 Growth 2017 to 2040 (total)

Population 1,605,000 1,700,000 1,718,000 1,780,000 1,818,000 +213,000 13%

Employment (Oxford Economics)

966,000 1,005,000 1,013,000 1,035,000 1,047,000 +82,000 8%

Employment (Oxford Economics applied to BRES)

860,000 895,000 902,000 922,000 933,000 +73,000 8%

18.10 Assessment of socio-economic and employment effects

Overview

18.10.1 The assessment of the effects of the DCO Project on socio-economics and

employment is described by each effect, and then by phase.

Activities

18.10.2 Chapter 6: DCO Project description outlines the key construction and

operational activities that will be occurring in each phase for both construction and

operation phases of the DCO Project. All activities (construction and operation) will

be relevant for the assessment of effects on socio-economics and employment

since all activities generate employment in some form.

18.10.3 As set out in Section 18.4, the assessment of likely significant effects has been

undertaken in phases, which draw on core assessment years as well any worst

case years for the assessment. The temporal scope for each effect is set out in

Table 18.6.

Potential temporary or permanent displacement of businesses or commercial

activity including property, land and minerals

18.10.4 This section assesses the effect of the potential temporary or permanent

displacement of businesses or commercial activity as a result of the DCO Project.

This includes property, agricultural land and minerals businesses. It is expected

the businesses and commercial activity will be displaced in Phase 1 (between

c. 2022 and 2026) after which there are expected to be no further effects. For the

purposes of this assessment, 2022 is assessed since this is considered to be

worst case.



18.10.5 The local businesses, commercial interests and property that are likely to be

displaced by the DCO Project will predominantly be located within the inner study

area, but the receptor is assessed within the context of the core study area and

the national area. This is appropriate when considering economic activity and

labour markets, and where businesses are likely to relocate.

Sensitivity of receptor

18.10.6 For the purpose of this assessment, the receptor is both (a) the business that

occupies the commercial property or uses land for commercial activity and (b) the

economic activity and employment that is facilitated by the commercial property or

land (the latter may not be displaced from the core study area when the former is if

the economic activity is transferred to another business in the core study area).

18.10.7 The sensitivity of the receptor will depend on the business and its ability to

relocate, as well as the extent to which the economic activity supported by the

business is linked to the specific business. The sensitivity of the receptor is likely

to be driven by the industry and use class of the floorspace or land which the

business occupies (or uses).

18.10.8 Heathrow is conducting a land referencing process to understand the nature of the

commercial businesses (including agriculture and minerals) that are likely to be

displaced. This is part of the statutory obligation to identify and consult with people

and organisations who have a legal interest in property or land that may be

affected by the DCO Project. This information will be available for the application

for development consent and will help to inform the ES as it will provide

information on the number of businesses affected, the quantum of floorspace

displaced, and will help to inform the assessment of the sensitivity of the

businesses to relocation.

18.10.9 Figure 6.7, Volume 2 shows the buildings that are proposed to be demolished as

part of the DCO Project. This includes all buildings including residential and

commercial buildings.

18.10.10 There are a number of principal commercial uses5 that will be displaced as a result

of the DCO Project, including Lakeside Waste Management Facility, British

Airways’ Waterside office, BT Data Centre and Maintenance Depot, Total Fuel

Depot and Rail Head and the southern half of the Aggregate Industries facility (the

asphalt plant). Further detail on these uses is set out in Chapter 6: DCO Project

description and in the magnitude of effects section below.

5 Note this does not include non-commercial displaced uses such as community facilities which are assessed in Chapter 11: Community or the Immigration Removal Centre (which is re-provided by the project)



18.10.11 For the purposes of the PEIR, the level of office, warehouse and hotel rooms that

will be displaced has been estimated based on publicly available data and

research commissioned by Heathrow. Table 18.11 sets out the expected office

(including British Airways’ Waterside), warehousing and hotel floorspace to be

displaced by the DCO Project. This is in addition to the floorspace of the principal

displaced uses set out above (with the exception of British Airways’ Waterside)

and does not include use classes that are not labelled below (for example, retail,

agriculture and minerals). Information on these uses will be informed by land

referencing and included in the final ES.

18.10.12 Initial analysis carried out by Heathrow suggests that:

1. c. 95,000 sqm of office space could be displaced as a result of the DCO

Project, this is equivalent to 2.4% of the office floorspace in the core study area

and 0.1% in England and Wales (refer to Table 18.11).

2. c. 136,000 sqm of warehousing space could be displaced as a result of the

DCO Project, this is equivalent to 1.9% of the industrial floorspace in the core

study area and less than 0.1% in England and Wales (refer to Table 18.11).

3. c. 1,446 hotel rooms could be displaced by the DCO Project.

Table 18.27: Expected displaced floorspace (GEA) by use class in the core study area

Office Warehousing Hotels

Floorspace demolished c. 95,000 sqm c. 136,000 sqm c. 1,446 hotel rooms

18.10.13 There is currently not enough detail on the businesses that will be displaced to

define the sensitivity of individual receptors at this level. The sensitivity of an

individual business and the economic activity it supports is largely driven by the

size of the local property market and availability of similar floorspace. At an

aggregate level, the level of commercial floorspace (for the use classes

considered) in the core study area has a low sensitivity (in year of assessment

2022) due to the large property market and sustained level of commercial

floorspace since 2000/01 (refer to paragraph 18.9.12), and low sensitivity at the

national level (England and Wales).

18.10.14 Section 14.10 of Chapter 14: Land quality assesses the effect on agricultural

land. This concludes that the construction of the DCO Project will result in a

maximum permanent loss of approximately 1,068 ha of agricultural land, of which

a maximum of 958 ha of BMV agricultural land. The businesses and level of

economic activity supported by this land is not known at this point in time; this will

be informed by land referencing for the ES.



18.10.15 Section 14.10 of Chapter 14: Land quality also identifies the loss of mineral

sites. This identifies six sites where planning permission has been granted for the

extraction of minerals.

18.10.16 Four sites (Sipson Quarry, Horton Brook Quarry, Homers Farm and Richings Park)

are expected to have either completed works prior to the DCO Project

commencing or being able to accommodate the works associated with the DCO

Project. Therefore, these sites are not expected to be affected by the DCO Project.

18.10.17 The DCO Project may result in the permanent sterilisation of minerals at a further

site (Poyle Quarry) unless prior extraction can occur, in which case future potential

economic activity may be displaced.

18.10.18 A further site (Harlington Quarry) has planning permission that is due to lapse

before commencement of the DCO Project and any remaining minerals would be

sterilised by the DCO Project. Without planning permission for further extraction,

no further economic activity would be supported but it is acknowledged that, in the

event planning permission was secured and implemented (or would have been in

the absence of the DCO Project), the DCO Project may displace future potential

employment.

18.10.19 Similarly, a number of preferred and safeguarded sites are also identified in

Section 14.10 of Chapter 14: Land quality; in the event these sites were brought

forward in the absence of the DCO Project, future economic activity would be

displaced. Furthermore, it should be noted that Hithermoor Quarry site to the

northwest of the King George VI Reservoir (a Minerals Preferred Area), which

currently hosts an aggregate recycling facility and a soil remediation facility, is the

preferred location for the processing of sand and gravel should extraction

commence from the reservoir. However, the Surrey Minerals Plan notes that an

assessment of the effect of, amongst other things, conveying material to

Hithermoor Quarry for processing and the impact on Staines Moor SSSI is

required before planning permission could be granted for extraction of the

reservoir. Planning permission for this is not guaranteed and so future employment

is not certain, but there is potential for the loss of future employment at this site.

For further information, refer to Chapter 14: Land quality.

18.10.20 The existing aggregate recycling facility and soil remediation facility is time limited

to 2023, and so is expected to have closed near the start of the DCO Project in

any event. The aggregates recycling facility located at Stanwell Quarry is expected

to be displaced resulting in potential loss of employment and processing capacity

up to 2027 (the facility is time limited). For further information, refer to Chapter 20:

Waste.

18.10.21 Further assessment, informed by land referencing, of the effect of minerals’

businesses will be undertaken for the ES, in conjunction with Chapter 14: Land



quality and Chapter 20: Waste to understand any direct or indirect effects on

minerals businesses.

Magnitude of effect

18.10.22 The magnitude of the effect largely depends on the ability of the business to

relocate; and whether they relocate in the same area. There are four responses

that are likely to occur:

1. The business or commercial activity is relocated as part of the DCO Project

within the core study area and therefore neither the business itself nor the

economic activity is lost from the core study area (or nationally)

2. The business or commercial activity relocates outside of the area of the DCO

Project but within the core study area and therefore neither the business itself

nor the economic activity is lost from the core study area (or nationally)

3. The business or commercial activity relocates outside of the core study area.

While the business is lost from the core study area, some of the economic

activity may be retained in the area as a result of spending in other (existing or

new) businesses. Both the business and the economic activity will be retained

within the national economy

4. The business or commercial activity does not relocate and therefore the

business is lost from the core study area and the national economy. Some of

the economic activity may be retained in the core study area (or the national

economy) as a result of spending in other (existing or new) businesses.

Re-provision of business or commercial activity

18.10.23 In terms of the re-provision of specific principal commercial uses highlighted in

paragraph 18.10.10, the Total Fuel Depot and Rail Head are proposed to be

provided within the DCO Project. The southern part of the Aggregate Industries

(the part that will be displaced) may be re-provided (by the operator on

safeguarded land) or may not be re-provided. It is not assumed that the other

specific principal commercial uses highlighted in paragraph 18.10.10 are re-

provided. For further information, refer to Chapter 6: DCO Project description.

18.10.24 Table 18.28 sets out the level of displaced office, warehousing and hotel that is

expected to be re-provided as part of the DCO Project:

1. The DCO Project allows for up to 20,500 sqm of office space, equivalent to

22% of the displaced office space resulting in a net loss of office floorspace of

74,500 sqm. Therefore, it is anticipated that there would be net loss of 2.2% of

the office floorspace in the core study area and less than 0.1% of floorspace in

England and Wales (refer to Table 18.11).



2. The DCO Project allows for up to 63,000 sqm of the displaced warehousing

floorspace to be re-provided, equivalent to 46% of the displaced warehousing

space. It should be noted that further warehousing space will be provided as

part of the DCO Project (refer to Chapter 6: DCO Project description) and

therefore there would actually be an increase in industrial/warehousing space

as a result of the DCO Project.

3. It is intended that the DCO Project will replace all displaced hotels rooms, and

further hotel rooms will be delivered as part of the DCO Project. Therefore,

there is expected to be an increase hotel space as a result of the DCO Project.

18.10.25 It is not known the extent to which the displaced businesses will locate in the new

floorspace, or whether the floorspace will be occupied by new occupiers; this will

be driven partly by commercial decisions by individual businesses. The sensitivity

and effect on individual businesses will informed by land referencing for the final

ES.

Table 18.28: Displacement and reprovision of floorspace by use class

Office Warehousing Hotels

Floorspace displaced c. 95,000 sqm c. 136,000 sqm All hotel rooms

replaced Floorspace reprovided as part of the DCO Project c. 20,500 sqm c. 63,000 sqm

Proportion of floorspace displaced reprovided c. 22% c. 46% 100%

Minimising the effects on displaced business and commercial activity

18.10.26 Heathrow will seek to minimise the effects on businesses through its Property &

Land Acquisition and Compensation Policies. Heathrow has prepared these

interim policies to help those whose properties are potentially within the area most

affected by the proposed expansion to understand Heathrow’s offers of

compensation and support. These interim policies explain Heathrow’s general

approach to buying properties and land and set out the enhanced compensation

offers for eligible properties (in addition to the statutory requirement to compensate

for the compulsory acquisition of land).

18.10.27 The interim policy for Agricultural Land and Property sets out the approach for

owners of agricultural land together with associated farmhouses and other farm

buildings. The interim policy for Commercial Property sets out the approach

for larger commercial interests as well as our offer for those with small business

interests. The interim Property Hardship Scheme operates in relation to

agricultural and small business categories, where owners have a compelling need

to sell their properties before they would be able to do so under one of the Interim



Property Policies but have been unable to do so on the open market. There is a

separate interim policy about Professional Fees incurred in association with the

compulsory acquisition process.

18.10.28 For further information, refer to the Property Policies: Information Paper and the

Property & Land Acquisition and Compensation Polices.

Overall magnitude of effect

18.10.29 The extent to which the specific businesses that are displaced by the DCO Project

will be replaced by the DCO Project is not known; this may be informed by land

referencing or engagement but will be largely dependent on the commercial

decisions of individual businesses (which they may not know or may choose not to

disclose prior to the application for development consent). The sensitivity of

businesses to displacement is not known and therefore the magnitude of this

effect on specific businesses has not yet been assessed.

18.10.30 The magnitude of the effect will vary depending on the nature of the effect and the

definition of the receptor. For example, if a retail unit is displaced and the business

does not relocate, the business itself will be the recipient of a negative effect, but

the economic activity that it supports may not be displaced if retail expenditure is

transferred to other shops within the core study area. If the retail unit relocates

outside of the core study area, the effect on the business itself would not be as

large, but the effect on the economic activity of the core study area would be the

same.

18.10.31 Magnitude of effect can however be determined at an aggregate level (for the use

classes considered). The loss of floorspace (taking into account the floorspace

that is re-provided as part of the DCO Project) is considered to be a medium

magnitude of effect in 2022 at the core study area level, and a negligible

magnitude of effect at a national level.

Assessment of significance

18.10.32 The potential temporary or permanent displacement of businesses or commercial

activity (including property, land and minerals) could be minor negative (not

significant) at the core study area level, and negligible (not significant) at the

national (England and Wales) level.

18.10.33 It is not possible to assess the significance of the effect on specific businesses or

business locations at this point in time, since there is currently not enough

information on the businesses (including agricultural and minerals businesses) that

will be displaced to define the sensitivity of individual receptors at this level.

Further work will be undertaken (including detailed land referencing) for the ES to



understand the sensitivity of the businesses to displacement (depending on type of

business, location, and availability of similar space to relocate to).

Potential effects on sustainability or viability of businesses

18.10.34 This section assesses the potential effect on the sustainability or viability of

businesses as a result of changes in catchment population and changes in the

labour market. The catchment area may change in actual size (as a result of

changes to the population resulting from displaced residents) or effective

catchment as a result of the change in journey times resulting in severance.

18.10.35 The effect would occur across all phases of the DCO Project. Based on the

information available at this point in time, it is not possible to conclude on the

significance of the effect. Nonetheless, information is presented on changes to

journey times in 2022 (Phase 1) and 2035 (Phase 3), since these are the years

where preliminary information about the likely effects of the DCO Project on the

transport network are available (refer to the PTIR for further information).

Information on the changes to the population size as a result of displacement of

residents due to the DCO Project are presented for 2022, 2025 (Phase 1), 2027

(Phase 2) and 2035 (Phase 3). The size of the population catchment is not

assessed in 2050 (Phase 3) due to uncertainties in forecasting. The ES will assess

the effect across all relevant assessment years where there is sufficient future

baseline information to do so robustly.


18.10.36 The receptors for this analysis are businesses that are located within the inner

study area. These businesses are most likely to be affected by changes in journey

times and severance within the locality of Heathrow and are likely to be reliant on

the local catchment to ensure the long term viability of the businesses. There are

8,220 business addresses in the inner study area (refer to Table 18.10).

18.10.37 The assessment of sensitivity is based on both the labour market catchment, and

the population catchment (for customer facing businesses). Due to the availability

of information, the assessment focuses on business locations rather than specific

businesses. More detailed information of individual businesses will inform the

assessment undertaken for the ES.

Labour market catchment

18.10.38 Access to an appropriate labour catchment is important to the long term viability

and sustainability of businesses. Table 18.29 and Table 18.30 show the home

locations of those who work within the inner study area (split by community areas)

and core study area respectively based on the 2011 Census. While the census

data is now several years old, it is the most reliable data set for assessing travel to



work patterns and identifying key links between locations. While the number of

people making each trip may have changed since 2011, it is not expected that the

distribution of trips (for instance the key home to work links) will have changed

significantly.

18.10.39 Table 18.29 sets out the home locations of workers who also live within the inner

study area to identify key links within the inner study area.

18.10.40 shows the home locations of workers who live within the core study area, to

identify the key links from businesses in the inner study area to places of

residence in the core study area.

18.10.41 Purple shading highlights the locations where more than 500 people make the trip

(according to census data); these are therefore the key transport links. Grey

shading highlights people who live and work in the same location (in Table 18.29)

or live in the same borough in which they work (in Table 18.30).

18.10.42 In 2011, there were 111,170 people who commuted to the inner study area for

work, of which 25% (27,320 people) also lived in the inner study area and a further

42% (46,180 additional people or 73,500 in total) lived in the core study area.

Each of the villages are dependent on slightly different labour market catchments

and therefore will be affected differently by changes to journey times and

severance:

1. The key home locations for businesses in Brands Hill and Colnbrook is Slough

Borough (in which Brands Hill and Colnbrook are located)

2. The key home locations for businesses in Poyle are Slough Borough (in which

Poyle is located), the London Borough of Hillingdon, the London Borough of

Hounslow and Spelthorne Borough

3. The key home locations for businesses in Longford are the London Borough of

Hillingdon (in which Longford is located), the London Borough of Ealing, the

London Borough of Hounslow (in particular Heston and Hounslow West and

Heath), Runnymede Borough, Slough Borough, Spelthorne Borough (and in

particular Stanwell) and the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead. A

significant proportion of the employment within Longford will be people who

work for businesses within the Airport boundary and therefore the viability and

sustainability of these business is not expected to change as a result of the

DCO Project

4. The key home locations for businesses in Stanwell Moor are Spelthorne

Borough (in which Stanwell Moor is located)

5. The key home locations for businesses in Stanwell are Spelthorne Borough (in

which Stanwell is located) and in particular Stanwell Moor



6. The key home locations for businesses in Bedfont are the London Borough of

Hounslow (in which Bedfont is located) and Spelthorne Borough

7. The key home locations for businesses in Feltham North are the London

Borough of Hounslow (in which Feltham North is located), the London Borough

of Ealing, the London Borough of Hillingdon and Spelthorne Borough

8. The key home locations for businesses in Hounslow Central and South are the

Borough of Hounslow (in particular Heston, Hounslow West and Heath, and

Hounslow Central and South itself), the London Borough of Ealing and the

London Borough of Hillingdon

9. The key home locations for businesses in Hounslow West and Heath are the

London Borough of Hounslow (in particular Heston and Hounslow West and

Heath itself), the London Borough of Ealing, the London Borough of Hillingdon

and Spelthorne Borough

10. The key home locations for businesses in Heston are the London Borough of

Hounslow (in particular Heston itself), the London Borough of Ealing and the


11. The key home locations for businesses in Cranford are the London Borough of

Hounslow (in which Cranford is located), the London Borough of Ealing and the


12. The key home locations for businesses in Cranford Cross and Harlington are

the London Borough of Hillingdon (in which Cranford Cross and Harlington are

located), and the London Borough of Hounslow

13. The key home locations for businesses in Hayes, Sipson and West Drayton are

the London Borough of Hillingdon (in which Hayes, Sipson and West Drayton

are located)

14. The key home locations for businesses in Harmondsworth are the London

Borough of Hillingdon (in which Longford is located), the London Borough of

Ealing, the London Borough of Hounslow (in particular Heston), Spelthorne

Borough and Slough Borough. As with businesses in Longford, a significant

proportion of the employment within Harmondsworth will be associated with the

Airport and therefore the viability and sustainability of these business is not

expected to change as a result of the DCO Project

15. The key home locations for businesses in Iver and Richings Park is Slough

Borough.



Table 18.29: Labour market catchment (inner study area) – home locations of workers who live in the inner study area (Source: Census 2011) – purple highlights identify key origin-destination pairs

Usual residence

BH

CO

P

L

SM

ST

B

FN

HC

S

HW

H

HE

CR

CC

HA

RL

HA

Y

SI

HA

M

WD

IRP

Inn

er

stu

dy

are

a

Pla

ce o

f w

ork

Brands Hill (BH) 30 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80

Colnbrook (CO) 10 30 10 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 60

Poyle (P) 90 100 140 10 190 40 110 80 70 120 130 50 10 60 100 10 30 100 10 1,430

Longford (L) 50 60 100 70 70 520 420 280 440 740 890 270 90 300 340 50 100 290 40 5,080

Stanwell Moor (SM) 0 0 0 0 20 40 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 120

Stanwell (ST) 0 0 10 10 610 30 100 30 20 50 40 10 0 10 20 0 10 10 0 960

Bedfont (B) 10 10 10 10 150 10 330 120 50 110 90 20 10 30 20 0 0 30 0 1,010

Feltham North (FN) 10 10 20 10 150 20 280 450 130 340 310 80 20 50 90 10 20 70 0 2,050

Hounslow Central and South (HCS) 10 10 10 0 70 10 140 150 930 780 700 120 30 30 60 10 10 50 10 3,100

Hounslow West and Heath (HWH) 20 10 10 0 120 20 200 180 420 1,210 620 100 30 40 90 10 0 80 10 3,170

Heston (HE) 0 0 10 0 60 10 100 100 260 350 1,110 80 10 30 100 0 10 50 10 2,280

Cranford (CR) 20 10 20 10 80 10 60 50 100 180 260 180 30 50 80 10 30 60 0 1,20

Cranford Cross (CC) 10 10 10 10 40 10 40 20 30 100 110 40 30 60 50 10 20 30 0 610

Harlington (HARL) 20 10 10 10 50 10 80 30 120 190 150 60 60 250 120 30 20 110 10 1,320

Hayes (HAY) 0 0 10 0 20 0 10 20 30 50 70 20 10 30 250 10 10 60 10 590

Sipson (SI) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 0 20 0 50

Harmondsworth (HAM) 40 30 40 10 240 20 250 170 320 490 590 180 60 180 220 30 120 200 20 3,210

West Drayton (WD) 10 10 0 0 20 0 10 10 20 50 40 20 10 30 50 10 20 520 10 820

Iver and Richings Park (IRP) 10 10 10 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 10 10 0 0 40 60 170

Inner study area 330 300 410 140 1,890 740 2,130 1,700 2,970 4,740 5,130 1,220 390 1,140 1,600 190 400 1,740 180 27,320



Table 18.30: Labour market catchment (inner study area) – home locations of workers who live in the core study area (Source: Census 2011) – purple highlights identify key origin-destination pairs

Usual residence

Ealing Hillingdon Hounslow Elmbridge Runnymede Slough South Bucks Spelthorne Windsor and

Maidenhead

Core Study

Area

England and

Wales

Pla

ce o

f w

ork

Brands Hill (BH) 30 40 30 10 10 220 20 20 50 430 820

Colnbrook (CO) 10 30 10 0 20 100 10 30 30 230 370

Poyle (P) 350 910 900 70 270 1,690 210 790 410 5,590 7,750

Longford (L) 2,180 3,420 4,230 380 660 1,510 350 1,890 870 15,480 26,280

Stanwell Moor (SM) 20 30 70 0 20 10 10 110 20 280 380

Stanwell (ST) 60 160 450 50 170 100 10 1,220 60 2,280 2,860

Bedfont (B) 240 320 1,170 190 210 160 70 610 230 3,180 6,240

Feltham North (FN) 570 800 2,370 90 210 340 70 700 130 5,250 6,860

Hounslow Central and South (HCS) 790 580 3,900 90 80 200 40 350 100 6,120 8,340

Hounslow West and Heath (HWH) 900 820 3,740 170 160 280 110 640 110 6,920 10,280

Heston (HE) 900 710 2,730 50 80 130 50 310 90 5,030 6,620

Cranford (CR) 550 760 1,130 60 70 420 40 290 210 3,520 5,260

Cranford Cross (CC) 210 450 480 20 60 130 30 140 30 1,560 2,250

Harlington (HARL) 480 1,190 910 50 110 310 80 230 160 3,520 5,410

Hayes (HAY) 250 870 280 20 20 100 40 50 60 1,690 2,330

Sipson (SI) 10 90 10 0 0 10 10 10 10 140 170

Harmondsworth (HAM) 1,650 2,090 2,850 220 330 770 270 930 300 9,410 15,070

West Drayton (WD) 110 1,150 200 10 20 120 80 60 50 1,790 2,320

Iver and Richings Park (IRP) 60 230 30 0 30 400 220 30 80 1,080 1,560

Inner study area 9,370 14,650 25,490 1,480 2,530 7,000 1,720 8,410 3,000 73,500 111,170



Population catchment

18.10.43 Access to an appropriate customer catchment is important to the long term viability

and sustainability of customer facing businesses; this includes (but is not limited

to) retail, leisure and restaurants. Table 18.31 sets out the expected population in

the inner study area in the absence of the DCO Project, and therefore the potential

size of the customer catchment for business within the inner study area in the

future baseline.

18.10.44 These are based on the GLA population projections since the Oxford Economics

modelling presented in the future baseline (set out in paragraphs 18.9.42 to

18.9.47) is only available at a LPA level. Projecting the population in this relatively

small area is considered too uncertain for 2050, and therefore the size of the

population catchment is not assessed in this year.

Table 18.31: Population in the inner study area (without the DCO Project)

Community area Phase 1 (2022) Phase 1 (2025) Phase 2 (2027) Phase 3 (2035)

Bedfont 13,400 13,100 13,100 13,100

Brands Hill 2,900 2,900 2,900 3,000

Colnbrook 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,100

Cranford 7,200 7,100 7,100 7,200

Cranford Cross 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,900

Feltham North 12,700 13,700 13,800 14,000

Harlington 5,200 5,100 5,100 5,400

Harmondsworth 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,100

Hayes 16,100 16,100 16,200 16,600

Heston 39,500 40,300 40,400 41,000

Hounslow

(Central and

South)

33,100 36,200 36,700 38,100

Hounslow (West

and Heath) 39,200 40,700 41,800 44,400

Iver and Richings

Park 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,700

Longford 300 300 300 300

Poyle 1,900 1,900 1,900 2,000

Sipson 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100

Stanwell 16,200 16,000 16,000 16,700



Community area Phase 1 (2022) Phase 1 (2025) Phase 2 (2027) Phase 3 (2035)

Stanwell Moor 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,600

West Drayton 21,700 21,900 22,000 22,500

Inner study area 220,400 226,300 228,300 235,800

Overall sensitivity

18.10.45 A change to the size of the labour market size or the customer catchment area has

the potential to affect the viability or sustainability of businesses. The receptors

(businesses of the inner study area) are therefore deemed to be high sensitivity

across all assessment years. This is a conservative assumption; some business

types may not be dependent on the local catchment for either labour or customers.

Further work will be undertaken for the ES to understand the sensitivity of

businesses to a change in the labour market or customer catchment.

Magnitude of effect

18.10.46 The DCO Project may change the viability and sustainability of businesses as a

result of changes in journey times changing the effective customer and labour

market catchment, and changes in population changing the size of the existing

catchment area.

Changes to journey time changing the effective customer and labour market catchment

18.10.47 Preliminary information about the use and operation of the transport networks is

presented within the PTIR. Volume 6 of the PTIR includes analysis of changes in

journey times on specific highway routes as well as presenting average and total

vehicle delay across the whole of the modelled highway network. The PTIR also

includes analysis of the likely effects on public transport (Volume 5 of the PTIR).

18.10.48 The Draft CoCP sets out how Heathrow/the main contractors will implement

effective traffic and transport management measures during the construction

phases of the DCO Project (refer to Table 18.7).

18.10.49 The PTIR assesses the changes in journey times across key routes in the local

area: these include three Strategic Road Networks (SRN) routes (M4, M25 and

A40, refer to Graphic 9.9 in the PTIR, Volume 6, Part C) and four Transport for

London Road Network (TLRN) routes (A4, A312, A3044 and A3113/Southern

Perimeter Road (refer to Graphic 13.9 in the PTIR, Volume 6, Part D)).

18.10.50 Forecast journey times on these routes are provided for four time periods (early

AM peak, AM peak, average interpeak, and PM peak hours) in both directions in

2022 and 2035 with and without the DCO Project. Analysis is not available for



other core assessment years: 2025 (Phase 1), 2027 (Phase 2) and 2050 (Phase

3).

18.10.51 This preliminary information suggests that journey times on the SRN will either

decrease, or remain broadly constant, as a result of the DCO Project (compared to

the future baseline) in 2022 and 2035.

18.10.52 In terms of the four TLRN routes, there is expected to be limited change compared

to the future baseline in 2022.

18.10.53 In 2035, there is forecast to be a large increase in journey times on the A3044 in

both directions and in all time periods as a result of the DCO Project, which is

predominantly as a result of the proposed realignment of the A3044.The A3044 is

located on the western perimeter of the Airport, running north to south. It is likely

changes to journey times would affect businesses in Stanwell Moor, Stanwell and

Harmondsworth.

18.10.54 Journey times across other TLRN routes are anticipated to either decrease or

remain broadly constant (compared to the future baseline scenario) in 2035.

18.10.55 The PTIR also presents the change in average and total vehicle delay: this is

generally forecast to be limited change in vehicle delay on the SRN and TLRN

around the Airport in 2022 and 2035 as a result of the DCO Project.

18.10.56 On the basis of the information presented within the PTIR, it is anticipated that

there will be limited effects on journey times with the exception of the A3044; this

may affect businesses in Stanwell Moor, Stanwell and Harmondsworth. However,

based on the preliminary information in the PTIR, it is not possible to identify

changes in the catchment area of local business as a result of changes to the

journey times (on either the highway or the public transport network).

Changes to population catchment as a result of DCO Project

18.10.57 The population catchment will change as a result of the displacement of residents

within the inner study area. Table 18.32 shows that the population of the inner

study area is expected to be less than 1% smaller as a result of the DCO Project.

18.10.58 While the change in the population catchment across the inner study area is

minimal, there are very large changes in Longford (all residents displaced) and

Harmondsworth (70% of residents displaced) and therefore the magnitude of the

effect on businesses in these villages could be high across all phases. Note that

(as set out in paragraph 18.10.44), it is too uncertain to forecast population to

2050.



Table 18.32: Changes to the population catchment – inner study area

Phase 1 (2022)

Phase 1 (2025)

Phase 2 (2027)

Phase 3 (2035)

Future baseline Harmondsworth 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,100

Longford 300 300 300 300

Elsewhere in inner study area 218,100 224,000 226,000 233,400

Inner study area 220,400 226,300 228,300 235,800

With DCO Project (accounting for displaced residents)

Harmondsworth 600 600 600 600

Longford 0 0 0 0

Elsewhere in inner study area 218,100 224,000 226,000 233,400

Inner study area 218,700 224,600 226,600 234,000

Change as a result of the DCO Project

Harmondsworth -1,400 -1,400 -1,400 -1,500

Longford -300 -300 -300 -300

Elsewhere in inner study area 0 0 0 0

Inner study area -1,700 -1,700 -1,700 -1,800

Harmondsworth -70% -70% -70% -71%

Longford -100% -100% -100% -100%

Elsewhere in inner study area 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Inner study area -0.8% -0.8% -0.7% -0.8%

NB Rounded to the nearest 100; also note there may be small changes in Poyle and Sipson but these will

less than 100 people.

Overall assessment of magnitude of effect

18.10.59 The changes in journey times (compared to the future baseline) on the highway

network between key locations are expected to be minimal in 2022 and (with the

exception of the A3044) in 2035.

18.10.60 Changes to the population catchment across the inner study area is expected to

be small across all phases. However, it is acknowledged that there may be large

changes in population catchment for businesses in certain locations (Longford and

Harmondsworth) and this combined with effects assessed in the Chapter 11:

Community (including the potential effects on community cohesion / integration)

may result in a high magnitude of effect on the viability or sustainability of specific

businesses.

18.10.61 It is not possible to conclude on the magnitude of the effect at this point in time,

since it is not possible to identify changes in the effective labour market or



customer for specific business locations. Further detail will be included in the ES to

understand the likely magnitude of the effect on sustainability or viability of

businesses within the inner study area, in particular changes to the effective

catchment population (which effect both the labour market and customer market).


18.10.62 It is not possible to conclude on the significance of the effect on sustainability or

viability of businesses since it is not possible to identify the sensitivity of specific

business to change in population catchments or the magnitude of the effect (in

terms of changes to catchments).

18.10.63 Further work will be included in the ES to understand the sensitivity of specific

business types/ locations to changes in population catchments; this will be

informed by land referencing and engagement. The sensitivity of businesses will

vary depending on the location and the type of business. For example, customer

facing businesses may be very dependent on the local spending of the local

catchment; the extent to which this business is sensitive to changes in journey

times will be dependent (amongst other factors) on where it is located. Other

businesses may be more sensitive to changes in the labour market. Further work

will also be undertaken to understand the likely changes in effective population

catchments and therefore the magnitude of the effect.

Disruption to residents and their economic activity, through environmental changes and changes in access to/from employment locations

18.10.64 This section assesses the disruption to residents and their access to economic

activity. This may occur as a result of changes to access to employment locations

(as a result of changes in journey times or severance) meaning it is no longer

feasible for a resident to work there. Note that the effect on residents in

employment in businesses that are displaced as a result of the DCO Project is

considered in paragraphs 18.10.4 to 18.10.33.

18.10.65 The effect could occur across all phases of the DCO Project. Based on the

information available at this point in time, it is not possible to conclude on the

significance of the effect. Nonetheless, information is presented in this chapter for

2022 (Phase 1) and 2035 (Phase 3), since these are the years where preliminary

information about the likely effects of the DCO Project on the transport network are

available (refer to the PTIR for further information). The ES will assess the effect

across all relevant assessment years where there is sufficient future baseline

information to do so robustly.




18.10.66 The receptor for this analysis is the residents of the inner study area. These

residents are most likely to be affected by changes in journey times and severance

within the locality of Heathrow.

18.10.67 Table 18.33 and Table 18.34 set out the work locations of the residents who live

within the inner study area. Table 18.33 shows the work locations of residents who

live and work in the inner study area. This shows that the key employment

locations are Longford (which is likely to be largely the Airport) and

Harmondsworth (both in the London Borough of Hillingdon), Hounslow Central and

South, Hounslow West and Heath, and Heston (all in the London Borough of

Hounslow).

18.10.68 Table 18.34 shows the work locations by LPA within the core study area. This

shows that the key employment locations for residents of the inner study area

within the core study area are the London Borough of Hillingdon, the London

Borough of Hounslow, the London Borough of Ealing, Slough Borough and

Spelthorne Borough.

18.10.69 This is consistent with Figure 18.3, Volume 2 which shows that the key

employment areas within the core study area are in Uxbridge (in the London

Borough of Hillingdon), Chiswick and Brentford (in the London Borough of

Hounslow), Ealing (in the London Borough of Ealing) and Slough (in Slough

Borough).

18.10.70 According to the 2011 Census, there are 77,510 residents of the inner study area

who commute to employment locations: 35% of these commute within the inner

study area, a further 35% commute elsewhere within the core study area and 30%

commute outside of the core study area (refer to Table 18.16).

18.10.71 These residents are likely to be sensitive to changes to their access to or from

employment locations. The receptor (residents of the inner study area) is therefore

considered to be of a high sensitivity across all assessment years.



Table 18.33: Access to economic activity for residents of the inner study area - work locations of residents who work in the inner study area (Source: Census 2011) – purple highlights identify key origin-destination pairs

Place of work

BH CO P L SM ST B FN HCS HWH HE CR CC HAR

L

HAY SI HAM WD IRP Inner

Study area

Usu

al

resid

en

ce

Brands Hill (BH) 30 10 90 50 0 0 10 10 10 20 0 20 10 20 0 0 40 10 10 330

Colnbrook (CO) 10 30 100 60 0 0 10 10 10 10 0 10 10 10 0 0 30 10 10 300

Poyle (P) 10 10 140 100 0 10 10 20 10 10 10 20 10 10 10 0 40 0 10 410

Longford (L) 0 0 10 70 0 10 10 10 0 0 0 10 10 10 0 0 10 0 0 140

Stanwell Moor (SM) 0 0 40 70 40 30 10 20 10 20 10 10 10 10 0 0 20 0 0 290

Stanwell (ST) 0 10 190 520 20 610 150 150 70 120 60 80 40 50 20 0 240 20 10 2,350

Bedfont (B) 0 0 110 420 10 100 330 280 140 200 100 60 40 80 10 0 250 10 0 2,130

Feltham North (FN) 0 0 80 280 10 30 120 450 150 180 100 50 20 30 20 0 170 10 0 1,700

Hounslow Central and South (HCS) 0 0 70 440 10 20 50 130 930 420 260 100 30 120 30 0 320 20 0 2,970

Hounslow West and Heath (HWH) 0 0 120 740 10 50 110 340 780 1,210 350 180 100 190 50 0 490 50 0 4,740

Heston (HE) 10 0 130 890 0 40 90 310 700 620 1,110 260 110 150 70 0 590 40 10 5,130

Cranford (CR) 0 0 50 270 0 10 20 80 120 100 80 180 40 60 20 0 180 20 0 1,220

Cranford Cross (CC) 0 0 10 90 0 0 10 20 30 30 10 30 30 60 10 0 60 10 0 390

Harlington (HARL) 0 0 60 300 0 10 30 50 30 40 30 50 60 250 30 0 180 30 10 1,140

Hayes (HAY) 0 10 100 340 0 20 20 90 60 90 100 80 50 120 250 10 220 50 10 1,600

Sipson (SI) 0 0 10 50 0 0 0 10 10 10 0 10 10 30 10 10 30 10 0 190

Harmondsworth (HAM) 0 0 30 100 0 10 0 20 10 0 10 30 20 20 10 0 120 20 0 400

West Drayton (WD) 0 0 100 290 10 10 30 70 50 80 50 60 30 110 60 20 200 520 40 1,740

Iver and Richings Park (IRP) 0 0 10 40 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 0 0 10 10 0 20 10 60 180

Inner study area 80 60 1,430 5,080 120 960 1,010 2,060 3,100 3,170 2,280 1,220 610 1,320 590 50 3,210 820 170 27,320



Table 18.34: Access to economic activity for residents of the inner study area – work locations of residents who work in the core study area (Source: Census 2011) – purple highlights identify key origin-destination pairs

Place of work

Ealing Hillingdon Hounslow Elmbridge Runnymede Slough South Bucks Spelthorne Windsor and

Maidenhead

Core Study

Area

England and

Wales

Usu

al

resid

en

ce

Brands Hill (BH) 30 200 90 10 20 420 50 20 110 930 1,140

Colnbrook (CO) 20 160 60 0 20 270 40 30 80 670 810

Poyle (P) 30 220 90 0 30 290 30 40 50 760 930

Longford (L) 0 130 30 0 10 20 0 10 0 200 260

Stanwell Moor (SM) 10 140 100 10 60 60 0 160 20 560 670

Stanwell (ST) 100 1,050 1,060 150 640 300 30 1,640 90 5,060 6,430

Bedfont (B) 220 960 1,780 50 180 190 10 460 50 3,880 5,220

Feltham North (FN) 190 660 1,760 70 120 140 10 330 30 3,300 4,720

Hounslow Central and South (HCS) 710 1,240 3,420 70 160 190 30 230 60 6,110 11,100

Hounslow West and Heath (HWH) 780 2,070 4,420 80 190 290 50 390 50 8,310 13,050

Heston (HE) 1,480 2,500 4,400 70 180 400 60 310 80 9,460 13,690

Cranford (CR) 220 720 790 10 30 100 20 60 20 1,970 2,640

Cranford Cross (CC) 50 340 150 0 10 30 10 0 0 580 720

Harlington (HARL) 100 1,130 290 0 10 90 30 40 10 1,710 2,160

Hayes (HAY) 660 2,360 620 10 40 250 40 70 30 4,080 5,460

Sipson (SI) 20 230 40 0 0 20 10 10 10 340 430

Harmondsworth (HAM) 40 430 100 0 0 60 20 20 10 680 820

West Drayton (WD) 380 3,270 480 10 60 300 140 80 90 4,800 6,290

Iver and Richings Park (IRP) 80 230 40 0 10 130 140 10 50 680 970

Inner study area 5,120 18,040 19,720 540 1,770 3,550 720 3,910 840 54,080 77,510



Magnitude of effect

18.10.72 The DCO Project may disrupt residents’ access to economic activity as a result of

changes in journey times resulting in severance.

18.10.73 The Draft CoCP sets out how Heathrow / the main contractors will implement

effective traffic and transport management measures during the construction

phases of the DCO Project (refer to Table 18.7).

18.10.74 As set out in paragraphs 18.10.47 to 18.10.56 the PTIR assesses the changes in

journey times across specific routes as well as presenting vehicle delay across the

highway network. On the basis of the assessment contained within the PTIR, the

changes in journey times (compared to the future baseline) between key locations

are expected to be minimal in 2022 and, with the exception of the A3044, in 2035.

18.10.75 It is not possible to conclude on the magnitude of the effect at this point in time;

since it is not possible to identify key changes to the ability of residents’ journey

times (on either the highway or the public transport network) to key employment

locations. Further detail will be included in the ES to understand the likely

magnitude of the effect on residents’ access to economic activity within the inner

study area.


18.10.76 It is not possible to conclude on the significance of the effect at this point in time

since it is not possible to identify the magnitude of the effect in terms of changes to

journey times (and therefore the likelihood that a resident’s access to employment

would be disrupted). Further detail will be included in the ES to understand the

changes in journey time between key locations and the number of jobs that are

accessible to local residents. This will allow for an assessment of the likely

significance of the effect on residents’ access to economic activity.

Potential temporary effect of employment generation and effects on businesses in the construction supply chain

18.10.77 This section assesses the temporary effects of employment generation and effects

on businesses in the construction supply chain during the construction period. All

construction activities in Table 6.1 (Chapter 6: DCO Project description) will

influence these effects.

18.10.78 The effect would occur across all phases of the DCO Project, with the most

significant effects occurring in Phase 1. The effect is therefore assessed across

the following assessment years: 2023 (Phase 1 peak construction year), 2025

(Phase 1 core assessment year), 2027 (Phase 2 core assessment year), 2035 and



2050 (Phase 3 core assessment years). The effects are assessed within the core

study area and at a national level.

Sensitivity of receptors

Construction workforce

18.10.79 Table 18.35 shows approximately 49,600 working age residents of the core study

area and 2.3 million working age residents across the UK working in the

construction sector (SIC Code F). This represents 6% of all employed residents in

the core study area, and 7% of all employed residents in the UK.

Table 18.35: Construction workforce – residents 16 - 64 (Source: APS – October 2017 to September 2018, 2019)

Area Working age residents employed in construction

% Employed residents working in construction

London Borough of Ealing 8,700 5%

London Borough of Hillingdon 11,500 8%

London Borough of Hounslow 6,600 5%

Elmbridge Borough 2,400 4%

Runnymede Borough 2,300 5%

Slough Borough 4,200 6%

South Bucks District 3,400 10%

Spelthorne Borough 5,600 10%


Maidenhead

4,000 5%

Core study area total 48,700 6%

National (UK) average 2,313,600 7%

18.10.80 Table 18.36 shows the proportion of construction jobs across the core study area

and Great Britain in different sub-sectors of construction. The largest shares of

construction jobs in both the core study area and across Great Britain are in

construction of buildings (24% of construction sector jobs in the core study area

and in Great Britain), electrical, plumbing and other installation (24% in the core

study area and 26% in in Great Britain), and building completion and finishing

(17% in the core study area and in Great Britain).



Table 18.36: Construction employment by sector (BRES 2017)

Core study

area

National (GB)

average

Construction of residential and non-residential buildings 24% 24%

Electrical, plumbing and other construction installation activities 24% 26%

Building completion and finishing 17% 17%

Other specialised construction activities not elsewhere

classified

10% 10%

Construction of other civil engineering projects 10% 9%

Development of building projects 8% 7%

Construction of roads and railways 5% 4%

Demolition and site preparation <1% 1%

Construction of utility projects <1% 1%

Total construction jobs 100% 100%

NB: Totals may not sum due to rounding.

18.10.81 Table 18.37 shows 9,800 construction businesses are based in the core study

area, and there are 331,600 across the UK. Most construction businesses (96%

across the core study area and 94% across the UK) are ‘micro’ size businesses

(with up to nine employees). This reflects the high number of self-employed

construction workers: 69% of all UK construction employees are self-employed

(Source: Labour Force Survey, Oct-Dec 2018).

Table 18.37: Construction businesses split by size (Source: UK Business Counts, 2018)

Core study area National (UK) average

Micro (0 to 9) 95.9% 94.2%

Small (10 to 49) 3.5% 5.0%

Medium (50 to 249) 0.4% 0.6%

Large (250+) 0.1% 0.1%

Total 100% 100%

9,800 331,600


18.10.82 Mobility is a key characteristic of the construction workforce: construction workers

travel to where the work is. A survey by the Construction Industry Training Board

(CITB) on Greater London’s construction workforce (CITB 2015) found that:



1. Approximately 44% of construction workers locating in Greater London cite

their reason for locating there is their employer sent them there. Approximately

39% cite the reason being that they grew up there and/or have always lived

there or other family reasons (this compares to 61% across the UK)

2. Almost two thirds of construction workers in Greater London travelled at least

50 miles from their permanent/current home to work in the last 12 months

(64%)

3. Of construction workers in Greater London, 8% are currently staying in

temporary accommodation while working at their construction site (slightly

higher than the UK average of 6%)

4. The mean distance from Greater London’s construction workers’ current

residence (including temporary residences) to their current site was 19 miles

(this compares to an average of 22 miles across the UK).

Workforce availability

18.10.83 The future growth of the construction workforce in the core study area and

nationally is reliant on capacity within the overall workforce (including unemployed

and workless residents), migration trends, and the choices of school and college

leavers.

18.10.84 The number of unemployed residents in the core study area and the UK is set out

in Table 18.19 and the number of NEET residents in the core study area and the

England is set out in Table 18.20. This shows there are high levels of

unemployment in the London Borough of Ealing, the London Borough of

Hillingdon, the London Borough of Hounslow and Slough Borough. There are high

levels of NEETs in the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead (although this

may be a data quality issue) and Buckinghamshire (which includes South Bucks

District).

18.10.85 In addition to unemployed and NEET residents, the extent of capacity in the labour

market is also a product of ‘labour market churn’, for instance the extent to which

employees move from one job to another. The Labour Force Survey (2017)

indicates that across the UK approximately 16% of workers have been in their

current job for less than one year, 50% for between one year and 10 years, and

34% for over 10 years. A survey by CITB (2015) identified that just 19% of

construction workers in London are expecting to be working on the site in one

years’ time.

18.10.86 A number of factors may affect the future baseline construction workforce and

businesses in the construction supply chain, including the impact of future

immigration policy on the size of the construction workforce (at both the core study

area and national levels), and activity planned by education and skills providers



that could increase the number of new entrants to the workforce entering roles in

construction.

18.10.87 Building After Brexit: An Action Plan for Industry (2019) sets out expected future

demand for construction workers based on CITB/Experian Construction Skills

Network (CSN) forecasting of future demand for construction workers, and an

action plan to support meeting this expected demand. The report warns that a

disruption to the supply of migrant labour could lead to a shortage of construction

skills needed to carry out planned developments. It forecasts the need to fill

168,500 construction jobs between 2019 and 2023, and carrying trends forward

the report estimates that there will be 250,000 construction jobs to fill by 2025 and

410,000 by 2030. It suggests a twin track strategy to achieve this growth through

(a) growth in the domestic workforce and increasing productivity to reduce

dependence on migrant workers, and (b) work with Government to maintain

access to the migrant workforce. Specific interventions include:

1. Increasing the number of apprenticeships and further education route entrants

to the sector

2. Increasing entrants from unemployment, higher education, and other industries

3. Retaining older workers and investing in training to retain workers

4. Improving sector productivity.

18.10.88 At the time of writing, there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with both the

process and timing of the UK leaving the European Union (EU) and subsequent

changes to the immigration system. For the purposes of this assessment, it is

assumed that the Government will implement the necessary policy measures to

ensure that construction workers continue to be available at a similar level to the

present. The construction workforce is therefore assumed to be at least as

available and mobile in the future; this position will be reviewed for the application

for development consent when more information on the potential impact of the

UK’s departure from the EU may be available.

18.10.89 The GLA and LEPs within the sub-regional context area have set out plans to

support forecast demand for construction workers and skills through measures to

support increased supply, collectively these measures would be expected to

increase the size of the overall construction workforce in the core study area and

nationally:

1. The GLA Skills Strategy (2018) sets out plans to establish a construction

academy scheme in order to address ‘the construction skills shortage in the

capital’ and meet the forecast demand generated by forecast rise in

construction output of 1.5% per year 2018-2022. The Mayor’s Construction

Academy (MCA) will deliver high quality construction skills provision, a new



MCA Quality Mark will recognise providers who deliver high quality skills, and a

MCA network will aim to strengthen collaboration between construction and

further education providers. The measures are intended to help many more

Londoners, particularly those from diverse backgrounds, to find work and

progress in the sector

2. Enterprise M3 LEP opened a new Future Skills Centre in 2017 in Whitehill and

Bordon. The centre offers a range of construction courses including full-time

courses and apprenticeships delivered by Hampshire County Council’s

operating partner, Basingstoke College of Technology. The centre will support

local people to access employment opportunities in construction and will

support the delivery of the regeneration of Whitehill and Bordon, during the

phase of expansion of the town and beyond

3. Buckinghamshire Thames Valley LEP published a Skills Strategy (2017) for

2017-2022 setting out delivery goals including development in construction. To

support skill delivery, the Skills Strategy sets out a number of goals including:

a. Supporting programmes such as those run by the National Careers Service

and Adviza that support unemployed people back into work in key sectors

through upskilling

b. Ensuring technical education pathways support skills needs in key sectors,

including construction, and young people’s career aspirations are aligned for

where they will be needed most

c. Encouraging employer engagement with training providers in terms of work

inspiration, work experience and recruitment, and delivery of apprenticeships.

4. Thames Valley Berkshire LEP – published a Skills Priority Statement (2018)

which identifies a number of priority sectors for interventions to address local

skills shortages. Construction is identified as a priority sector due to its high

value to Berkshire’s economy, and employers reporting hard to fill vacancies.

Interventions will be focused on raising skills through training, increasing

productivity, and diversifying the workforce.

Overall sensitivity

18.10.90 Given the size and mobility of the baseline construction workforce, and the

additional capacity that could be available through unemployed, workless and

NEET residents, and the large number of businesses in the construction supply

chain, the receptor is deemed to be low sensitivity at both the core study area and

the national spatial scales in all assessment years.



Magnitude of effect

18.10.91 The construction of the DCO Project will generate construction employment onsite

throughout all phases of construction. The DCO Project is expected to provide

associated opportunities for businesses in construction and the construction

supply chain, including self-employed, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

(SMEs) and larger construction-related businesses.

18.10.92 Heathrow has modelled the estimated total job years required for the DCO Project

construction to be between 89,000 and 98,000 across all phases. The majority of

this is anticipated to be in Phase 1: up to 13,600 job years are anticipated to be in

2023 (the peak construction year), and up to 10,100 job years required in 2025

(Phase 1 core assessment year) (refer to Table 18.38). The peak construction

workforce6 is expected to be up to 14,100; this will occur within 2023 (the peak

construction year) but not all workers will be onsite for the whole year.

18.10.93 Phase 2 and Phase 3 will have a lower requirement for construction workers: up to

3,900 job years are anticipated to be required in 2027 (the Phase 2 core

assessment year), up to 2,200 are anticipated to be in 2035 and less than 2,000

job years are expected in 2050 (both Phase 3 core assessment years).

18.10.94 A gravity model has been used to determine where members of the construction

workforce are expected to commute from. For the assessment of the effects of

construction employment generation, the model provides proportions of

construction workers who are expected to commute from within the core study

area, and those who are expected to commute from outside the core study area.

This information has been used to predict the likely changes to the use and

operation of the transport networks associated with construction activities for the

DCO Project (further details are provided in PTIR, Volume 3).

18.10.95 Construction workers will include both ‘home-based workers’ who will travel to

work from their existing home; and ‘non-home-based workers’ who are expected

to move to the area to work on the DCO Project.

18.10.96 Non-home-based workers are a standard component of any large construction

project, with the proportion of the total workforce influenced by the demand for

specialist skills that may not be available to a large extent in the local area. In

London, CITB (2015) estimate that around 8% of construction workers working on

projects are ‘non-home-based’ (for instance staying in temporary accommodation

for the duration of their contract/role). The average for the UK as a whole is 6% of

construction workers.

6 Based on quarterly data



18.10.97 For this assessment, it has been assumed that 20% of workers will be non-home-

based. This is a worst case estimate (for the purposes of the socio-economic and

employment assessment) – higher than reported proportions – and in practice it

could be a lower proportion.

18.10.98 Table 18.38 sets out the likely distribution of construction workers by home

location (while they are working on the DCO Project). In peak construction year

(2023), it is expected that 3,500 of the construction jobs years will be filled by

people who already live in the core study area. In 2025 (Phase 1 core assessment

year), it is anticipated that approximately 2,600 construction job years will be taken

up by people who already live in the core study area.

18.10.99 As the level of construction activities falls over Phase 2 and Phase 3, the number

of construction job opportunities falls: there are expected to be 1,000 job years for

residents in the core study area in 2027 (Phase 2 core assessment year), 600 in

2035 and less than 500 by 2050 (Phase 3 core assessment years).

18.10.100 As well as providing opportunities for those already in the construction industry,

these jobs will provide opportunities for new entrants to the labour market. These

will include those who have finished studying or training, those who have switched

careers to work in construction and those who were previously unemployed or

workless (including NEETs). The Economic Development Strategy will set out an

overarching strategy which seeks to enhance employment opportunities for both

new and existing members of the labour market (refer to Section 18.5) in the

construction phase. This will be important in the context of reducing barriers to

employment as a source of social inequality (as identified in paragraph 18.9.23).

18.10.101 The Economic Development Strategy will also set out an action plan which seeks

to maximise supply chain benefits and innovation in the construction phase (refer

to Section 18.5).

Table 18.38: Construction workforce job years by location of residence

Phase 1

(2023)

Phase 1

(2025)

Phase 2

(2027)

Phase 3

(2035)

Phase 3

(2050)

Home

-

based

Core study area 3,500 2,600 1,000 600 <500

Outside of the core

study area

7,400 5,500 2,100 1,200 <1,100

Non-home-based 2,700 2,000 800 400 <400

Total 13,600 10,100 3,900 2,200 <2,000



18.10.102 In the context of the local labour market of the core study area and opportunities

for new entrants, the magnitude of the effect is deemed to be high in Phase 1

(2023 and 2025), medium in Phase 2 (2027) and low in Phase 3 (2035 and 2050)

at the core study area level.

18.10.103 In the context of the national construction labour market, the magnitude of the

effect is deemed to be medium in Phase 1 (2023 and 2025), low in Phase 2

(2027), and low (2035) to negligible (2050) in Phase 3 at the national level.


18.10.104 At the core study area level, the temporary effect of employment generation and

effects on businesses in the construction supply chain is considered to be a

moderate positive (significant) effect in Phase 1 (2023 and 2025), minor

positive (not significant) in Phase 2 (2027) and negligible (not significant) in

Phase 3 (2035 and 2050).

18.10.105 At a national level, the temporary effect of employment generation and effects on

businesses in the construction supply chain is deemed to be a minor positive

(not significant) effect in Phase 1 (2023 and 2025) and negligible (not

significant) in Phase 2 and Phase 3 (2027, 2035 and 2050).

Potential effects of new employment and business generated by the DCO Project on the labour market, skills and training in or related to the construction phase

18.10.106 This section assesses the potential temporary and permanent effects of the

construction of the DCO Project on labour market skills and training, including

apprenticeships. All construction activities in Table 6.1 (Chapter 6: DCO Project

description) will influence these effects.

18.10.107 The effects would occur across all phases of the DCO Project, with the most

significant effects occurring in Phase 1. The effect is therefore assessed across

the following assessment years: 2023 (peak construction assessment year), 2025

(Phase 1), 2027 (Phase 2), and 2035 and 2050 (Phase 3). The effects are

assessed within the core study area and at a national level.


18.10.108 As set out in Table 18.18, working-age residents of the core study area across all

sectors are more likely to hold higher level qualifications (47%), and less likely to

have no qualifications (6%) than the national (UK) average (where 38% have

higher level qualifications and 8% have no qualifications).

18.10.109 Table 18.39 sets out census data showing the level of qualifications held by the

construction workforce. A higher proportion of construction workers who are

resident in the core study area have Level 4 and above qualifications (21%) than



across England and Wales (17%), and a higher proportion have apprenticeships

and other qualifications (27% compared to 19% across England and Wales). The

proportion of construction workers with no qualifications is the same across the

core study area and England and Wales (13% at both spatial scales). As set out in

paragraph 18.9.22, the census data tend to have lower qualifications than the

APS and should therefore could be considered in this context.

Table 18.39: Construction workforce (Aged 16-64 in employment) qualifications – resident (Source: Census 2011)

Core study area England and Wales

No qualifications 13% 13%

Level 1 13% 16%

Level 2 14% 17%

Level 3 13% 17%

Level 4 and above 21% 17%

Apprenticeships and other

qualifications

27% 19%

Total 100% 100%


18.10.110 There were fewer apprenticeships starts (as a proportion of all apprentices) in

construction, planning and the built environment in the core study area (4%), than

the national average (6%) (refer to Table 18.24).

18.10.111 The future construction skills baseline faces similar uncertainties to the future

baseline of the construction workforce (set out in paragraphs 18.10.83 to

18.10.89).

18.10.112 The CITB’s CSN (2019) forecasts include occupation level forecasts of demand

over the period 2019 to 2023. The latest report published in February 2019

identifies the following occupations as most in demand in terms of the projected

annual recruitment requirement nationally over the period 2019 to 2023:

1. Other construction process managers

2. Other construction professional and technical staff

3. Wood trades and interior fit-out.

18.10.113 Given the high demand for construction skills development at the core study area

and national levels, and identified long term productivity issues with the industry,

the level of skills of the existing baseline construction workforce is assessed to be



of medium sensitivity at both the core study area and national spatial scales in all

assessment years.

Magnitude of effect

18.10.114 To assess the effect of skills opportunities generated by the DCO Project it is

necessary to consider where the workforce is expected to be recruited from, as set

out in Table 18.38.

18.10.115 Heathrow’s modelling of labour demand during the construction of the DCO

Project identifies 28 occupational groups. Table 18.40 shows the expected

demand for each of these occupations across the construction period (2022 –

2050) and identifies the approximate percentage of the construction workforce that

will be each occupational group in Phase 1, across Phase 2 and Phase 3, and

across the whole construction period. This shows that there is expected to be

variety of occupational requirements with no occupation type expected to account

for more than 13% of the workforce in any one phase.

18.10.116 The highest demand (in terms of person-years required) by occupation is expected

to be in ‘wood trades and interior fit-out’ which is expected to account for

approximately 10% of the total construction workforce demand (over 8,000 job

years), and approximately 13% of demand across Phase 2 and Phase 3.

‘Labourers’ are the second highest occupational group in terms of demand,

accounting for approximately 9% of the total workforce demand and approximately

13% of Phase 1 demand. ‘Electrical trades and installation’ account for

approximately 8% of total demand (over 4,000 construction job years), and

approximately 10% of demand across Phase 2 and Phase 3. ‘Senior, executive,

and business process managers’ account for approximately 7% of demand (over

4,000 construction job years). Other occupational groups expected to require more

than 4,000 construction job years include ‘civil engineering operatives’, ‘plant

operatives’ and ‘plumbing and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning’.

18.10.117 Skills gap analysis considers the labour demand by occupation required, the

existing workforce profile in the region, and future forecasts of availability to

understand where there may be an undersupply of skills to serve the DCO Project.

18.10.118 Modelling of labour demand versus supply undertaken to date suggests that the

following roles could have the largest skills gap: ‘civil engineering operatives’, ‘civil

engineers’, ‘plant operatives’, ‘construction trades supervisors’, ‘labourers’, and

‘scaffolders’. The occupational groups where there is largest demand do not

necessarily have skills gaps since it may be that there are lots of construction

workers who fall into this occupational group.



Table 18.40: Estimated construction occupation groups by DCO Project phase

Occupation Phase 1 Phase 2 and 3

Total (2022 to 2050)

% of phase Job years per occupation

Wood trades and interior fit-out 8% 13% 10% 8,000+ per

individual

occupation Labourers (not elsewhere classified) 13% 6% 9%

Electrical trades and installation 6% 10% 8%

4,000 to 8,500

per individual

occupation

Senior, executive, and business process managers 7% 8% 7%

Civil engineering operatives (not elsewhere classified) 10% 3% 6%

Plant operatives 7% 4% 5%

Plumbing and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning 3% 7% 5%

System, process, engineering roles 3% 6% 4%

2,000 to 5,000

per individual

occupation

Construction trades supervisors 5% 4% 4%

Building envelope specialists 3% 5% 4%

Plant mechanics/fitters 4% 4% 4%

Other construction professionals and technical staff 3% 4% 4%

Surveyors 3% 4% 3%

Construction project managers 3% 3% 3%

Specialist building operatives (not elsewhere classified) 4% 3% 3%

Non–construction operatives 3% 2% 3%

Bricklayers <2% 3% 2% 800 to 2,500

per individual

occupation

Logistics 3% <2% 2%

Steel erectors/structural <2% 2% 2%

Civil engineers 3% <2% <2%

Scaffolders <2% <2% <2%

Painters and decorators <2% <2% <2%

Roofers <2% <2% <2%

Plasterers and dry Liners <2% <2% <2%

Glaziers <2% <2% <2% < 800 per group

Floorers <2% <2% <2%

Architects <2% <2% <2%

Railway <2% <2% <2%

Total 100% 100% 100% 89,000 to

98,000



18.10.119 Heathrow’s modelling of labour demand estimates that there be a variety of skill

levels required during the construction of the DCO Project; this is based on the

types of qualifications held by the different types of construction workers who will

be required for the DCO Project.

18.10.120 The skills profile required to deliver the construction is set out in Table 18.41: over

a third of the workforce (39%) are expected to require a qualification of NVQ level

3 or above, while 12% will be expected to have trade apprenticeships and over a

quarter (33%) would be expected to have qualifications of NVQ 2 or lower

(including no qualifications). The remainder would be expected to have other

qualification (11%) or qualifications are unknown (5%).

Table 18.41: Construction skills requirements by DCO Project phase

Skill level

Phase 1 Phase 2

and 3

Total (2022 to 2050)

% of phase Job years

NVQ Level 4+ and above (excluding First degree) 11% 12% 12% 10,000 to 12,000

First degree 8% 8% 8% 7,000 to 8,000

NVQ level 3 18% 20% 19% 17,000 to 19,000

Trade apprenticeships 10% 13% 12% 10,000 to 12,000

NVQ level 2 14% 13% 13% 12,000 to 13,000

Below NVQ level 2 14% 12% 13% 11,000 to 13,000

Other qualifications 13% 10% 11% 10,000 to 12,000

No qualifications 8% 6% 7% 6,000 to 7,000

Unknown 4% 6% 5% 4,000 to 5,000

Total 100% 100% 100% 89,000 to 98,000

18.10.121 The construction phase will generate in-work training and apprenticeship

opportunities for those already employed in the construction sector who take work

on the DCO Project; new entrants to the labour market (from study or training or

having switched careers to work in construction; and those who were previously

unemployed or workless (including NEETs).

18.10.122 The Economic Development Strategy will set out an overarching strategy which

seek to enhance the skills, employment, training and education for both new and

existing members of the labour market (refer to Section 18.5) in the construction

phase. This will include a credible plan to implement the commitment to deliver a

total of 10,000 apprenticeships at an expanded airport (as set out in the ANPS), of



which a proportion will be in the construction phase, and a skills, education and

training action plan. This will build on the response to the Skills Taskforce and will

be informed by the Skills Implementation Group. The strategy will seek to ensure

skills opportunities are maximised in the construction phase.

18.10.123 This is particularly relevant in the context of low skilled employment resulting in a

reliance on in-work benefits as a source of social inequality (as identified in

paragraph 18.9.23) since skills and training opportunities provide a route out of in-

work-poverty.

18.10.124 The magnitude of the effect on the labour market, skills and training in or related to

the construction phase is correlated with the magnitude of the effect of new

employment and business generated by the DCO Project (refer to paragraphs

18.10.102 to 18.10.103). The more construction employment opportunities that

exist within a construction project, the more opportunities there are for training

(including apprentices) and for upskilling both specifically within the DCO Project

and in the construction industry more widely. Therefore, the magnitude of the

effect is expected to be high in Phase 1 (2023 and 2025), medium in Phase 2

(2027) and low in Phase 3 (2035 and 2050) at the core study area spatial scale.

18.10.125 In the context of the national construction labour market, the magnitude of the

effect is deemed to be medium in Phase 1 (2023 and 2025), low in Phase 2

(2027), and low (2035) to negligible (2050) Phase 3 at the national spatial scale.


18.10.126 At the core study area spatial scale, the temporary effect on the labour market,

skills and training in or related to the construction phase is considered to be a

major positive (significant) effect in Phase 1 (2023 and 2025), moderate

positive (not significant) in Phase 2 (2027) and minor positive (not significant)

in Phase 3 (2035 and 2050).

18.10.127 At a national spatial scale, the temporary effect on the labour market, skills and

training in or related to the construction phase is considered to be a moderate

positive (significant) effect in Phase 1 (2023 and 2025), minor positive (not

significant) in Phase 2 (2027) and minor positive (not significant) (2035) to

negligible (not significant) (2050) in Phase 3.

Potential wider effects on employment and economy through direct, indirect and induced influence of the DCO Project

18.10.128 This section assesses the potential wider effects on employment and the economy

through direct influence (for example, jobs and businesses supported directly

related to the operation of the Airport), indirect influence (growth in business and

jobs supported in the Airport’s supply chain) and induced influence (jobs and



businesses supported as a result of expenditure on goods and services) of the

DCO Project. The catalytic effects of employment are not included in this section

and are considered in paragraphs 18.10.195 to 18.10.214.

18.10.129 All operational activities in Table 6.1 (Chapter 6: DCO Project description) are

likely to result in effects on employment and economy through direct, indirect and

induced influence. The effect would occur across all phases of the DCO Project,

with the greatest effects occurring in Phase 3. The effect is therefore assessed

across the following assessment years: 2025 (Phase 1), 2027, 2030 (both Phase

2), and 2035 (Phase 3). As set out in Table 18.9, the effect has not been

quantified in 2050 (Phase 3), however the positive effects are expected to remain

positive throughout Phase 3 (including 2050). The effect is assessed over the core

study area and at a national level.


18.10.130 There are 860,000 people in employment located within the core study area in

82,400 businesses (refer to Table 18.12 and Table 18.13).

18.10.131 Of the approximately 1.0 million people of working age within the core study area,

80% are economically active and 77% are in employment (refer to Table 18.17).

The future baseline (refer to Table 18.26) shows that employment in the core

study area is expected to continue to grow. Therefore, the low levels of

unemployment and growing employment opportunities means that the receptor

(residents of Heathrow’s direct, indirect and induced labour market) is deemed to

be of low sensitivity in the core study area for all assessment years.

18.10.132 Of the 41.5 million people of working age within the UK, there are relatively high

levels of economic activity (78%) and employment (75%) (refer to Table 18.17).

Therefore, the receptor is deemed to be of low sensitivity at a national level for all

assessment years.

Magnitude of effect

Gross direct employment

18.10.133 The number of direct employees in the future is estimated based on a relationship

between passenger demand and employment, applying an efficiency ratio to allow

for changes in technology. As set out in Table 18.9, these assumptions will be

developed and refined for the ES.

18.10.134 The base Heathrow colleague number used for the PEIR is 72,700 in 2017; this is

the direct onsite employment (people who have a job based at the Airport). This

will also be refined for the ES; as set out in paragraph 18.8.4, further work is



ongoing to update this figure which may result in higher forecasts of direct

employment in the future.

18.10.135 These interim assumptions give the following gross direct employment effect for

each of the assessment years:

1. Year of maximum release of first phase of capacity (2025): 81,500 gross direct

jobs onsite, of which 5,200 are additional (compared to the future baseline) as

a result of the DCO Project. This is equivalent to 8,800 additional jobs

compared to the 2017 employment level

2. First full year of North West Runway opening (2027): 85,000 gross direct jobs

onsite, of which 7,800 are additional as a result of the DCO Project This is

equivalent to 12,300 additional jobs compared to the 2017 employment level

3. ANPS test for key targets (2030): 94,800 gross direct jobs onsite, of which

16,800 are additional as a result of the DCO Project. This is equivalent to

22,100 additional jobs compared to the 2017 employment level

4. Year of minimum ANPS capacity (2035): 99,500 gross direct jobs onsite, of

which 16,200 are additional as a result of the DCO Project. This is equivalent

to 26,800 additional jobs compared to the 2017 employment level

18.10.136 For the purposes of this assessment, it is assumed that all workers employed

directly onsite will commute from within the UK. It is acknowledged that in reality

there may be a small proportion of workers who commute from outside of the UK,

but it is expected that this will not be significant.

Table 18.42: Colleagues projections – gross direct jobs (national)

Future baseline

(without DCO Project)

With DCO Project Additional direct

onsite jobs

(compared to future

baseline)

Baseline 2017 72,700 72,700 0

Phase 1 2025 76,300 81,500 5,200

2017 to 2025 3,600 8,800

Phase 2 2027 77,200 85,000 7,800

2017 to 2027 4,500 12,300

Phase 3 2030 78,000 94,800 16,800

2017 to 2030 5,300 22,100

2035 83,300 99,500 16,200

2017 to 2035 10,600 26,800



18.10.137 While all direct jobs will be located onsite, and therefore within the core study area,

not all people employed onsite will live within the core study area. Table 18.43

shows the number of people who are expected to commute from within the core

study area in each phase and the extent to which they are additional (compared

with the future baseline).

18.10.138 There are two scenarios for home location distribution of direct employment within

the core study area; these represent alternative scenarios based on different

assumptions about of the rate of change in the distribution of colleagues over time

as a result of the DCO Project.

18.10.139 The first scenario (defined as scenario 1) assumes a rapid change in the

distribution of colleagues’ home locations in response to increased parking

restraint at the Airport and other measures contained in the Surface Access

Proposals, with colleagues tending to locate in areas around and to the east of

the Airport in the future, where there are better public transport connections. The

second scenario (defined as scenario 2) is based on a more gradual rate of

change in the distribution of colleagues’ home locations, which is more closely

aligned to the current distribution of colleagues. Both distributions result in an

increase in the number and proportion of colleagues commuting from (and

therefore resident in) the core study area.

18.10.140 Table 18.43 sets out numbers of colleagues expected to commute from within the

core study area for each scenario in each phase. This gives the following gross

direct employment effect within the core study area for each of the assessment

years:

1. Year of maximum release of first phase of capacity (2025): between 52,300

and 53,800 gross direct jobs onsite within the core study area, of which

between 6,200 and 7,700 are additional (compared to the future baseline) as a

result of the DCO Project

2. First full year of North West Runway opening (2027): between 56,400 and

59,000 gross direct jobs onsite within the core study area, of which between

9,700 and 12,300 are additional as a result of the DCO Project

3. ANPS test for key targets (2030): between 66,400 and 73,800 gross direct jobs

onsite within the core study area, of which between 19,200 and 26,600 are

additional as a result of the DCO Project

4. Year of minimum ANPS capacity (2035): between 69,700 and 77,400 gross

direct jobs onsite within the core study area, of which between 19,300 and

27,000 are additional as a result of the DCO Project.



Table 18.43: Colleagues projections – gross direct jobs (input) – core study area

Future

baseline

(without DCO

Project)

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

With DCO Project Additional

(compared to

future baseline)

With DCO Project Additional

(compared to

future baseline)

Baseline 2017 44,000 44,000 - 44,000 -

Phase 1 2025 46,100 53,800 7,700 52,300 6,200

Growth (2017 to 2025) 2,100 9,800 7,700 8,300 6,200

Phase 2 2027 46,700 59,000 12,300 56,400 9,700

Growth (2017 to 2027) 2,700 15,000 12,300 12,400 9,700

Phase 3 2030 47,200 73,800 26,600 66,400 19,200

Growth (2017 to 2030) 3,200 29,800 26,600 22,400 19,200

2035 50,400 77,400 27,000 69,700 19,300

Growth (2017 to 2035) 6,400 33,400 27,000 25,700 19,300



18.10.141 For the purposes of the assessment, the effect of the DCO Project is considered at

an aggregate level across the core study area. This is because labour markets are

fluid and therefore the labour market needs to be viewed at a scale that takes into

account the functional economic area. Further work will be undertaken for the ES

to develop a commuting area which reflects the current and future commuting

patterns of the Airport.

Net additional employment

18.10.142 In order to assess the total net additional employment (including indirect and

induced effects), displacement and multiplier effects need to be considered.

Displacement

18.10.143 Displacement is defined by the Additionality Guide (2014) as the ‘proportion of

intervention outputs/outcomes accounted for by reduced outputs/outcomes

elsewhere in the target area’. In the context of the DCO Project, it is the extent to

which employment would have been supported elsewhere in the economy in the

absence of the DCO Project. The economy in this context is both the economy of

the core study area, and the national (UK) economy.

18.10.144 The extent to which the additional employment supported by the DCO Project

would have otherwise been supported elsewhere in the economy depends on the

extent to which money spent by passengers / freight businesses would have been

spent elsewhere in the economy and therefore would have supported employment

or whether the spending is additional. Any spending that would otherwise have

occurred elsewhere in the economy in the absence of the DCO Project, has been

displaced by spending at the Airport or on fares/sending freight.

Multipliers

18.10.145 Multiplier effects are defined by the Additionality Guide (2014) as ‘further economic

activity (jobs, expenditure or income) associated with additional local income and

local supplier purchases’. This includes a supply linkage multiplier (indirect

multiplier) due to spending within the supply chain as a result of the DCO Project

and an income multiplier (induced multiplier) associated with local expenditure as

a result of those working directly onsite or through the supply chain.

Displacement and multiplier scenarios

18.10.146 Heathrow has commissioned economic modelling through Frontier Economics

(Economic impacts from growth at Heathrow’ (2014)) and Oxford Economics

(2019) to understand the economic implications of the DCO Project.



18.10.147 The level of displacement and multiplier effects as a result of the DCO Project are

subject to considerable uncertainty. Therefore, this assessment uses a

combination of assumptions to inform a lower and upper scenario.

18.10.148 The upper scenario is based on the Frontier (2014) report, which derives a

national multiplier of 2.3. This means that for every additional direct job that occurs

as a result of the DCO Project, there will be an additional 1.3 indirect or induced

job that occurs nationally. This scenario assumes that there is zero displacement

as a result of additional employment supported by the DCO Project. The DfT’s

Updated Appraisal Report (2017) show that London’s five major airports (Gatwick,

Heathrow, London City, Luton and Stansted) ‘are expected to be full by 2034

according to the DfT17 forecasts, with four out of five full by 2025’. Therefore, the

combined multiplier is 2.3 at the national level.

18.10.149 The local multiplier is derived based on the relationship between net additional

jobs in the core study area and the regional area (London and the South East) in

the Oxford Economics modelling: 57% of the additional indirect and induced jobs

(taking into account displacement) are assumed to be in the core study area. This

gives a local multiplier of 1.7; this implies that for every additional direct job that

occurs as a result of the DCO Project, there will be an additional 0.7 indirect or

induced job that occurs within the core study area, and an additional 0.6 indirect or

induced job that occurs outside of the core study area.

18.10.150 The lower scenario uses the same multiplier as the upper scenario (2.3) but

assumes a displacement rate of 41% at a national level. This displacement rate is

the based on the proportion of passengers (Civil Aviation Authority (CAA)

Passenger Survey Report (2017)) who are UK residents – this assumes

(conservatively) that all UK resident passengers would have spent their money

elsewhere in the UK economy in the absence of the DCO Project but that no

international passengers would have travelled without the DCO Project (they are

additional). In reality it is likely that some international visitors would have travelled

in the absence of the DCO Project and not all of the UK residents’ spend would be

displaced; therefore 41% is a reasonable level of displacement. This gives a

combined national multiplier (taking into account displacement and multiplier

effects) of 1.4.

18.10.151 At the core study area level, the combined multiplier (taking into account

displacement effects) is 1.2; as per the upper scenario this is based on the

assumption that 57% of additional indirect and induced jobs (taking into account

displacement) reported at a national level occurs in the core study area. This

implies a displacement rate within the core study area of 31%.



18.10.152 On this basis, the combined multipliers at a national level are assumed to be

between 1.4 and 2.3, and the combined multipliers at a core study area level are

assumed to be between 1.2 and 1.7.

Table 18.44: Multiplier and displacement assumptions

Scenario Spatial area Displacement Combined multiplier

(including

displacement effect)

Upper scenario Core study area 0% 1.7

National (UK) 0% 2.3

Lower scenario Core study area 31% 1.2

National (UK) 41% 1.4

Total net additional jobs

18.10.153 Applying the combined multipliers (which includes the multiplier and displacement

factors) set out in Table 18.44 to the gross additional jobs results in the estimated

net additional employment. Table 18.45 sets out the net additional employment at

a national level:

1. Year of maximum release of first phase of capacity (2025): there are expected

to be between 7,100 to 12,000 total net additional jobs nationally (compared to

the future baseline). This is equivalent to between 12,000 and 20,300

additional jobs compared to the 2017 employment level

2. First full year of North West Runway opening (2027): there are expected to be

between 10,700 to 18,000 total net additional jobs nationally (compared to the

future baseline). This is equivalent to between 16,800 and 28,400 additional

jobs compared to the 2017 employment level

3. ANPS test for key targets (2030): there are expected to be between 23,000 to

38,800 total net additional jobs nationally (compared to the future baseline).

This is equivalent to between 30,200 and 51,100 additional jobs compared to

the 2017 employment level

4. Year of minimum ANPS capacity (2035): there are expected to be between

22,100 to 37,500 total net additional jobs nationally (compared to the future

baseline). This is equivalent to between 36,600 and 62,000 additional jobs

compared to the 2017 employment level.



18.10.154 Despite a large absolute contribution to employment, in the context of the size of

the national labour market, the magnitude of the effect is low across all phases at

a national level.

Table 18.45: Gross and net additional employment – national level

Additional employment

compared to future

baseline


growth from 2017

Lower Upper Lower Upper

Combined multiplier 1.4 2.3 1.4 2.3

Phase

1

202

5

Gross additional direct

jobs

5,200 8,800

Total net additional jobs 7,100 12,000 12,000 20,300

Phase

2

202

7


jobs

7,800 12,300


Phase

3

203

0


jobs

16,800 22,100


203

5


jobs

16,200 26,800


18.10.155 Table 18.46 sets out the net additional employment at the core study area level:

1. Year of maximum release of first phase of capacity (2025): there are expected

to be between 6,300 and 9,100 net additional jobs in the core study area

(compared to the future baseline). This is equivalent to between 10,600 and


2. First full year of North West Runway opening (2027): there are expected to be

between 9,400 and 13,600 net additional jobs in the core study area

(compared to the future baseline). This is equivalent to between 14,900 and


3. ANPS test for key targets (2030): there are expected to be between 20,300

and 29,400 net additional jobs in the core study area (compared to the future

baseline). This is equivalent to between 26,700 and 38,600 additional jobs

compared to the 2017 employment level



4. Year of minimum ANPS capacity (2035): there are expected to be between

19,600 and 28,300 net additional jobs in the core study area (compared to the

future baseline). This is equivalent to between 32,400 and 46,800 additional

jobs compared to the 2017 employment level.

Table 18.46: Gross and net additional employment – core study area


compared to future

baseline


growth from 2017

Lower Upper Lower Upper

Combined multiplier 1.2 1.7 1.2 1.7

Phase 1 2025 Gross additional direct jobs 5,200 8,800






2035 Gross additional direct jobs 16,200 26,800


18.10.156 The Economic Development Strategy will set out an overarching strategy to

enhance the employment opportunities for both new and existing members of the

labour market. This will include a credible plan to implement the commitment to

deliver a total of 10,000 apprenticeships at an expanded airport (as set out in the

ANPS) and a skills, education and training action plan. This will build on the

response to the Skills Taskforce and will be informed by the Skills Implementation

Group. The strategy will seek to ensure skills opportunities are maximised in the

operational phase (refer to Section 18.5). This is important in the context of

reducing barriers to employment as a source of social inequality (as identified in

paragraph 18.9.23). The Economic Development Strategy will also include an

action plan which seeks to maximise supply chain benefits and innovation.

18.10.157 In the context of the labour market (both current workers and new entrants) of the

core study area level, the magnitude of the effect is low in Phase 1 (2025),

medium (2027) to high (2030) in Phase 2, and high in Phase 3 (2035).


18.10.158 At the core study area level, the total effect of direct, indirect and induced

employment is negligible (not significant) in Phase 1 (2025), minor positive



(not significant) (2027) to moderate positive (significant) (2030) in Phase 2,

and moderate positive (significant) in Phase 3 (2035).

18.10.159 In the context of the national labour market, the total effect of direct, indirect and

induced employment is negligible (not significant) across all phases.

Potential effects of new employment and business generated by the DCO Project on skills and training in or related to operational development

18.10.160 This section assesses the potential effects on skills and training as a result of the

new employment and economic activity generated by the operational

development. The DCO Project will generate significant direct, indirect and

induced employment growth, as outlined in paragraphs 18.10.128 to 18.10.158.

These jobs provide opportunities for work training and upskilling (including

apprenticeships) for residents of the core study area and in the UK more broadly,

and may result in additional demand for education, skills and training provision.

18.10.161 Heathrow is committed to enhancing skills benefits through active development of

employment and training mechanisms, including apprenticeships. The ANPS

includes a requirement to ‘set out a credible plan to implement its commitment to

deliver a total of 10,000 apprenticeships at an expanded airport’.

18.10.162 The effect would occur across all phases of the DCO Project, with the greatest

effects occurring from Phase 3 onwards. The effect on skills and training is

therefore assessed across the following assessment years: 2025 (Phase 1 core

assessment year), 2027 (Phase 2 core assessment year) and 2035 (Phase 3 core

assessment year). As set out in Table 18.9, the effect has not been assessed in

2050 (Phase 3), however the positive effects are expected to remain positive

throughout Phase 3 (including 2050). The effect is assessed at the core study area

and national levels. The sub-regional context area is provided for context.


Occupations and skills

18.10.163 Achieving a higher skilled workforce is a key objective of Government’s Industrial

Strategy (2017), which sets out the role a more highly skilled workforce would play

in raising productivity to tackle the UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ and generate good

jobs and greater earning power for individuals. As part of this objective the

Industrial Strategy sets out a commitment to deliver three million apprenticeship

starts by 2020.

18.10.164 Within the core study area and the sub-regional context area, LPAs and LEPs

have developed skills and strategies that aim to increase skills of residents. A



summary of key themes of these strategies is set out in Table 18.47. A full review

of local skills policy is set out in Appendix 2.1.

Table 18.47: Core study area skills strategies – key themes

Local skills objectives / issues LPAs / LEPs Description

Raising skills London Borough of

Hounslow, Slough

Borough

Two of the nine LPAs in the core study area

identify raising skills as a key local policy

objective – including through apprenticeships

and training.

Demand led skills provision Spelthorne Borough,

Enterprise M3

Spelthorne Borough and Enterprise M3 LEP

Skills Strategy focus on shifting towards a

demand led approach to skills development to

meet future demand.

Improved transport

connectivity

London Borough of

Hillingdon, London

Borough of Hounslow,

Enterprise M3

Two LPAs and Enterprise M3 LEP identify the

role of transport connectivity in supporting

residents to access appropriate jobs.

Low skilled residents London Borough of

Hillingdon, London

Borough of Hounslow,

Spelthorne Borough,

Slough Borough,

Thames Valley

Berkshire

Four of the nine LPAs and Thames Valley

Berkshire LEP identify higher proportions of

lower skilled residents than the national

average. These authorities identify this as a

barrier to high quality employment

opportunities for these residents.

Low aspirations Slough Borough,

London Borough of

Hounslow and London

Borough of Hillingdon

Three LPAs reported low aspirations amongst

residents as a barrier to employment.

In-commuting Slough Borough and

London Borough of

Hounslow

Two LPAs identify a high level of in-

commuting as an issue for residents’ access

to high quality jobs – with a large proportion of

roles taken by people commuting into the

borough from outside.

Skills mismatch London Borough of

Hounslow, Enterprise

M3

One LPA, and Enterprise M3 LEP identify

skills mismatch locally with employers unable

to find the skills necessary to fill vacancies.

18.10.165 Table 18.17 shows there are approximately 1.0 million working age residents in

the core study area and 41.5 million nationally. As shown in Table 18.18, a higher

proportion of residents of the core study area have higher (NVQ4+) qualifications

(47%) than nationally (38%). Approximately 6% of core study area residents have

either no qualifications; this compares to 8% of UK residents.



18.10.166 Occupational groups also provide an indication of baseline skill levels. The ONS

classifies the major standard occupational groups (SOC) and sub-groups into the

four skill level classifications (refer to Appendix 18.1 for further information).

Table 18.48 indicates lower proportions of residents of the core study area

employed in lower skilled Level 1 and Level 2 roles (9% and 30% respectively)

compared to the national averages (10% and 33%), and a higher proportion are

employed in higher skilled Level 4 roles (33%) than the national average (28%).

Table 18.48: Occupation skills (Source: APS, 12 months to September 2018)

Occupation Core study area UK

Level 1 9% 10%

Level 2 30% 33%

Level 3 29% 28%

Level 4 33% 28%

Total 100% 100%


18.10.167 Table 18.49 shows a summary of employment in the core study area by sector

and occupational group. This data is only available at workplace based level (not

resident), but nonetheless is informative around the type of jobs that are available

within the core study area. By share of all jobs, the largest number of roles (10%)

are in Level 4 skilled professional occupations in the public administration, health

and education sectors. A significant proportion of jobs (5%) are Level 2 skill level

sales and customer service occupations in the distribution, hotels and restaurant

sector. Approximately 22% of jobs in the core study area are in transport and

communication which will in part reflect the large number of people working at

Heathrow. Jobs in this sector include a range of occupations across all skill levels.



Table 18.49: Core study area occupations by sector – all jobs (work place) (Source: APS, 12 months to September 2018)

Man

ag

ers

, d

ire

cto

rs

an

d s

en

ior

off

icia

ls

Pro

fes

sio

nal

Occu

pati

on

s

Asso

cia

te P

rof

&

Tech

Occu

pati

on

s

Ad

min

istr

ati

ve a

nd

secre

tari

al

occu

pati

on

s

Skille

d T

rad

es

Occu

pati

on

s

Cari

ng

, le

isu

re a

nd

oth

er

se

rvic

e

occu

pati

on

s

Sale

s a

nd

cu

sto

mer

serv

ice o

ccu

pati

on

s

Pro

cess,

pla

nt

an

d

mach

ine o

pe

rati

ves

Ele

men

tary

occu

pati

on

s

To

tal

Agriculture &

fishing

- - - - - - - - - -

Energy & water 0% 1% 0% - 0% - - 0% - 1%

Manufacturing 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% - 0% 1% 0% 8%

Construction 1% 0% 0% 1% 4% - - 0% 1% 7%

Distribution, hotels

& restaurants

3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0% 5% 1% 3% 17%

Transport &

Communication

2% 4% 4% 1% 1% 3% 1% 3% 2% 22%

Banking finance &

insurance etc.

3% 3% 4% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2% 16%

Public admin

education & health

1% 10% 4% 2% 0% 5% 0% 0% 1% 23%

Other services 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 6%

Total 13% 20% 18% 9% 8% 9% 8% 6% 9% 100%



Labour market capacity – unemployment and worklessness and turnover

18.10.168 While both the core study area and national levels of economic activity and

employment are high (80% and 77% respectively in the core study area and 78%

and 75% nationally – refer to Table 18.17) there are residents seeking work or

training opportunities: 4% of economically active residents (over the age of 16) in

both the core study area (34,800 people) and nationally are unemployed and

seeking work (refer to Table 18.19).

18.10.169 There are also a significant number of young people in the core study area who

are NEETs (refer to Table 18.20). These individuals may or may not be included in

the unemployment numbers above depending on whether they are actively

seeking work.

18.10.170 The Labour Force Survey (2017) indicates across the UK approximately 16% of

workers have been in their current job for less than one year, 50% for between

one year and 10 years, and 34% for 10 years or more.

Skills providers

18.10.171 Skills providers across the core study area include schools, further education and

higher education providers. Post-16 provision across the core study area includes

81 state-funded sixth forms (refer to Figure 18.5) and 28 higher and further

education providers (refer to Figure 18.6).

18.10.172 The most recent data on apprenticeship starts and completions shows that there

were 375,760 apprentices who started training in 2017/18 across England, of

which 7,210 are residents of the core study area (refer to Table 18.22).

Apprenticeships in the core study area are more likely to be higher qualification

level than the national average (refer to Table 18.23) and less likely to be taken up

by younger people: 24% of apprentices are 16 to 18 compared to 28% national

(England) average (refer to Table 18.25).

Heathrow skills provision

18.10.173 Heathrow is committed to delivering employment and skills opportunities to benefit

local people. A summary of existing skills initiatives is set out below.

Heathrow Employment and Skills Academy

18.10.174 The Heathrow Employment and Skills Academy brings together the Airport,

business partners, local employers and service providers to support delivery of

pre-employment and work-skills training, new jobs and apprenticeships. Support is

available for local people, including young people leaving care and people with

disabilities, to enter into sustainable employment.



Heathrow Shared Apprenticeship Scheme

18.10.175 Launched in June 2018 in partnership with K10 Apprenticeship Training Agency

and delivered by Heathrow’s Employment and Skills Academy, Heathrow’s Shared

Apprenticeship Scheme brings together a number of Heathrow’s major

construction companies to offer local people opportunities to gain apprenticeships

in construction through work at Heathrow.

18.10.176 The Shared Apprenticeship Scheme is directly funded by Heathrow and each

apprentice is hosted by various contractors at the Airport. This offers apprentices a

breadth of experience and the support of a dedicated Apprentice Programme

Manager at the Academy, while supporting SMEs to deliver apprenticeship

placements. Measures are in place to reduce barriers for applicants, including paid

for and arranged placements in a local Further Education (FE) college.

18.10.177 The scheme allows the de-risking of delivery of apprenticeships by smaller

companies that may otherwise feel they cannot commit to an apprentice – which

can be the case in the construction sector, where period of study for an apprentice

may be longer than the contract on which they are engaged.

18.10.178 The approach will allow Heathrow to assure the quality of apprenticeships,

improve completion rates and sustained employment outcomes, and ensure

opportunities are offered to local communities. All apprentices are paid the

national living wage.

Career pathways through T-Levels

18.10.179 T-Levels are new courses (to be introduced from September 2020), which will

follow GCSEs and will be equivalent to three A-Levels. These will be two year

courses, developed in collaboration with employers and businesses include a

mixture of classroom learning and ‘on the job’ experience during an industry

placement of at least 45 days. The intention of T-Levels is to provide the

knowledge and experience needed to open the door into skilled employment,

further study or a higher apprenticeship.

18.10.180 Heathrow has set out plans to support new career pathways in T-Levels by

offering up to 1,200 work placement days to local T-Level students in construction

and digital from September 2020.

Reducing barriers to work and training

18.10.181 Heathrow is committed to reducing barriers to entry for workers by offering high

quality, sustainable employment opportunities.

18.10.182 In November 2018, Heathrow published its Living Wage Roadmap (2018) which

outlines the timelines in which Heathrow will transition its directly engaged supply

chain to pay the living wage. Included in the delivery of the roadmap is a



commitment to ensure that Heathrow’s supply chain steps back from using zero

hours contracts.

Overall sensitivity

18.10.183 Supporting skills development including delivering apprenticeships are core

themes of national and local level economic policies focused on driving

productivity and economic growth. The DCO Project will result in additional

demand for education and training provision both within the core study area and

nationally. Levels of skills and qualifications in the core study area are generally

above national averages, however there are unemployed residents seeking work

and training, as well as NEETs.

18.10.184 Due to their significance in delivering national industrial policy objectives, the

labour market, skills and training are assessed to be medium sensitivity at the

core study area and national spatial area for all years.

Magnitude of effect

18.10.185 The assessment of employment effects set out the additional employment

compared to both the future baseline and compared to 2017. Table 18.42 sets out

the national gross direct jobs; this is the number of jobs expected to be onsite.

Table 18.43 sets out the proportion of these that are likely to be taken up by

residents of the core study area.

18.10.186 Table 18.50 gives an indication of the breakdown by types of jobs that are likely to

be supported onsite if the existing proportions of job types were maintained.

Applying the current split to the direct onsite employment projections (equivalent to

the national projections) shows the largest category is air cabin crew: it is

anticipated that there will be approximately 5,400 additional jobs compared to

2017 in Phase 3 (2035), and 3,250 compared to the future baseline. The next

largest group is passenger services, sales and clerical staff. This is based on the

2013/14 Employment Survey; more recent internal updates show a broadly similar

split of employment types.

18.10.187 This top down analysis is based on the relationships between airport operations

and jobs and productivity assumptions. Within this, some types of jobs will grow,

and others decline but it is not possible to project this with any certainty.

Therefore, the numbers in Table 18.50 should be taken as broadly indicative; skills

and workforce planning will need to be adaptive to changes in types of jobs and

productivity, both with changes to the operation of the Airport but also of changes

to the wider economy.



Table 18.50: Direct employment by type of employment (indicative split)

Additional employment compared to future baseline

Additional employment growth from 2017

Phase 1 (2025)

Phase 2 (2027)

Phase 3 (2035)

Phase 1 (2025)

Phase 2 (2027)

Phase 3 (2035)

Air cabin crew 1,050 1,550 3,250 1,750 2,500 5,400

Passenger Services, Sales and Clerical Staff

900 1,350 2,800 1,550 2,150 4,650

Apron, Ramp, Cargo, Drivers, Baggage Staff

550 800 1,700 950 1,300 2,850

Catering and Retail 550 800 1,650 900 1,250 2,750

Security, Passenger Search, Access Control

500 750 1,550 850 1,150 2,500

Maintenance Tradesmen and Other Skilled

350 500 1,100 600 800 1,800

Management/ Professional - General

350 500 1,050 550 800 1,700

Pilots / ATC / Flight Operations

250 400 800 450 600 1,350

Customs, Immigration, Police and Fire Staff

100 200 400 200 300 650

Management/ Professional - Airport/ Airline

100 150 350 200 250 600

Cleaning and Housekeeping 100 150 300 150 250 550

Information Technology 50 100 200 100 150 300

Other 350 500 1,050 550 800 1,750

Total 5,200 7,800 16,200 8,800 12,300 26,800

NB totals may not sum due to rounding.

18.10.188 Skills and training opportunities associated with these additional jobs will provide

significant opportunities for upskilling and in work training for residents of the core

study area and in the UK more broadly.

18.10.189 Skills development is a core theme of the ANPS (as set out in Table 18.2). The

DCO Project is regarded as an opportunity to grow the number of jobs and

apprenticeships both at Heathrow and within its supply chain and airport-related

businesses, particularly for residents in communities neighbouring the Airport.

18.10.190 The scale of additional employment associated with the direct, indirect and

induced employment effects of the DCO Project would generate skills and

upskilling opportunities at both the core study area and national levels.

18.10.191 The Economic Development Strategy will set out an overarching strategy which

will seek to enhance the skills, employment, training and education for both new



and existing members of the labour market (refer to Section 18.5). This will

include a credible plan to implement the commitment to deliver a total of 10,000

apprenticeships at an expanded airport (as set out in the ANPS) and a skills,

education and training action plan. This will build on the response to the Skills

Taskforce and will be informed by the Skills Implementation Group. The strategy

will seek to ensure skills opportunities are maximised in the construction phase.

18.10.192 This is particularly relevant in the context of low skilled employment resulting in a

reliance on in-work benefits as a source of social inequality (as identified in

paragraph 18.9.23) since skills and training opportunities provide a route out of in-

work-poverty.

18.10.193 The magnitude of effect skills and training during the operational phase in the core

study area is therefore assessed to be of low magnitude in Phase 1 (2025),

medium in Phase 2 (2027) and high in Phase 3 (2035). At a national level, the

magnitude is assessed to be low magnitude in all phases (in the context of the

size of the overall national labour market).


18.10.194 At the core study area level, the total effect on the labour market of increased

operational employment against a moving baseline and supporting skills and

training activity is deemed to be minor positive (not significant) in Phase 1

(2025), moderate positive (not significant) in Phase 2 (2027) and major

positive (significant) in Phase 3 (2035). At the national level, the effect is

deemed to be minor positive (not significant) in all phases.

Potential additional effects on employment and the economy through catalytic effects (trade, FDI and tourism)

18.10.195 This section assesses the potential additional effects on employment and the

economy through catalytic effects, as a result of improved connectivity resulting in

additional trade, FDI and tourism. All operational activities in Table 6.1 (Chapter

6: DCO Project description) will influence these effects. This assessment draws

on the research presented in the reports produced by Frontier Economics:

1. Economic impacts from growth at Heathrow (2014) – this provides a detailed

overview of the methodology for the assessment of the catalytic effects

associated with the DCO Project. The Frontier Catalytic Model has been rerun

to update the estimates based on the current passenger and ATM forecasts set

out in Table 6.1 (Chapter 6: DCO Project description)

2. Competition and Choice (2017): provides insight into the additionality of the

catalytic effects.



18.10.196 The effect would occur across all phases of the DCO Project, with the greatest

effects occurring in Phase 3. Therefore, the effect is assessed across the following

assessment years: 2025 (Phase 1 core assessment year), 2027 (Phase 2 core

assessment year), 2035 and 2050 (Phase 3 core assessment year). The effect is

assessed at a national level.


18.10.197 Catalytic effects are presented as both employment and GVA and are assessed at

the national level: the size of the national (UK) economy is circa £1,651bn (refer to

Table 18.14) and employs over 30 million people (refer to Table 18.12).

18.10.198 The sensitivity of the receptor (the economy) is medium sensitivity at a national

level in all assessment years. This is in the context of uncertainty associated with

both the process and timing of the UK leaving the EU and subsequent changes to

the trade relationships. The sensitivity of the receptor will be reviewed for the ES,

at which point the relationship with the EU should be clearer.

Magnitude of effect

18.10.199 Catalytic effects (jobs and GVA) are calculated based on the benefits of air

connectivity facilitated by the North West Runway. Additional direct connections

result in shorter journey times (avoiding the need to connect via other hub airport)

and therefore an increase in passenger numbers. An increase in business

passengers results in increased trade and FDI, and therefore productivity and

GDP. While an increase in leisure passengers’ results in increased tourism and

spending, and therefore an increase in GDP and employment.

18.10.200 There are three key relationships to consider:

1. Air connectivity (number of direct routes) –> passenger volumes

2. Passenger volumes –> FDI, trade and tourism

3. Tourism, FDI, trade –> productivity, GDP, employment.

18.10.201 These relationships are illustrated in Graphic 18.2, and ultimately result in the

catalytic effects presented in Table 18.51.



Graphic 18.2: Catalytic effects

Air connectivity and passenger volumes

18.10.202 The DCO Project will allow for more direct routes to be served reducing the time to

travel between the new destinations, thereby reducing the generalised cost of

travel. Frontier (2014) applies a price elasticity to the change in generalised travel

costs to estimate the increase in passenger volumes as a result of the additional

direct flights.

Passenger volumes and FDI, trade and tourism

18.10.203 The additional passengers can be divided into leisure and business travellers:

1. Leisure passengers: net tourism impact is the impact of the inbound tourism

spend (inbound visitors spend in the UK) minus that outbound tourism spend

(outbound visitors spend abroad). As Heathrow has more inbound than

outbound tourists the net effect is positive, but due to its net nature, the overall

magnitude is small



2. Business passengers: Additional business passengers supports face-to-face

meetings which are vital to overcoming barriers to business across countries

and lead to an increase in closing deals that support both trade and FDI. This

is evidenced through literature review which shows the impact of connectivity

on sales, firm location decisions, exports, and access to foreign markets (refer

to Annex B: Catalytic impacts of Competition and Choice (Frontier 2017)). The

literature review also informs the development of business travel elasticities

with respect to trade and FDI. Since there is a lack of research on the

quantitative assumptions, the following conservative assumptions are made:

a. It is assumed that business travel elasticities of trade and FDI are zero for

flights to Europe. This is based on rationale that European trade links are

well-established so face-to-face meetings to build trust and understanding

are likely to have a smaller effect

b. It is assumed that passengers who switch from an indirect to direct flight as a

result of the new flight being available, will not result in additional trade,

tourism and FDI since they are already travelling to the destination. The

catalytic effect only values the effect of additional passengers who start flying

due to direct connection becoming available.

Tourism, FDI, trade and productivity, GDP and employment

18.10.204 Leisure and business passengers have different effects on tourism and trade.

18.10.205 Net change in tourism spending (leisure passengers) has a direct, albeit small,

effect on GDP; this is converted to jobs via an appropriate GDP to jobs ratio.

18.10.206 Business travel is split into short term and long term effects (with a focus on long

term effects):

1. Short term: from a pure accounting perspective, exports have a positive effect

on GDP and imports have a negative effect in the short run. The same holds

true for inward and outward investment. An equal increase in exports and

imports would therefore have no effect on GDP, as the positive effect of

exports would cancel out the negative effect of imports. Therefore, short term

effects are not included in the assessment

2. Long term: A more open economy is more likely to be more productive in the

long term. The Frontier report (2014) includes a literature review which

evidences the relationship between trade and (inward and outward)

investment. This relationship occurs through three main channels: innovation,

competition and economies of scale. FDI and trade elasticities of GDP are

used to estimate the impact of the increase in FDI and trade on UK GDP. A

national GDP to jobs ratio is applied to translate increase in GDP into an

increase in jobs.



18.10.207 The Frontier (2014) report includes discussion of causality (connectivity is

necessary but not sufficient for growth) and effects that have not been included in

the catalytic assessment. This includes impacts of reduced delays and the effect

on movement of goods and capital.

18.10.208 Table 18.51 shows the results of the catalytic assessment, as derived through the

key three relationships identified in paragraph 18.10.200 and explained in

paragraphs 18.10.201 to 18.10.207. This is summarised as:

1. Air connectivity (number of direct routes) –> passenger volumes: an

increase in the number of direct flights results in additional (business and

leisure) passengers, as a result of a reduced generalised costs

2. Passenger volumes –> FDI, trade and tourism: additional leisure

passengers result in a small net increase in tourism. Additional business

passengers result in more face to face meetings, which facilitates increases in

trade and FDI. To be conservative, only additional passengers on long haul

(outside Europe) flights are included

3. Tourism, FDI, trade –> productivity, GDP, employment: additional tourism

results in a small increase in GDP (calculated via tourism elasticities of GDP)

and additional FDI and trade results in an increase in GDP (calculated via FDI

and trade elasticities of GDP). The increase in GDP is translated to an increase

in GDP via a GDP to jobs ratio.

18.10.209 The catalytic effects of Heathrow are assumed to be entirely additional to the

national economy. As set out in the Frontier (2017) report:

‘there is limited evidence to suggest that underserved O/D [origin-destination] demand at

Heathrow would ‘overflow’ to Gatwick. Heathrow has been constrained for over ten years

and Gatwick has had spare capacity during this time. Therefore, it might have been

expected to see an increase in long haul connectivity at Gatwick. However, in this time,

long haul has failed to develop in any real significance at Gatwick’.

18.10.210 This results in the following catalytic benefits at a national level:

1. Year of maximum release of first phase of capacity (2025): there are no

catalytic benefits at a national level in Phase 1

2. First full year of North West Runway operations (2027): there are expected to

be 17,000 additional catalytic jobs (compared to the future baseline) in 2027.

The Net Present Value (NPV) of the additional GVA is £1.0bn (this includes the

benefits between 2026 and 2027)

3. Year of minimum ANPS capacity (2035): there are expected to be 50,000

additional catalytic jobs (compared to the future baseline) in 2035. The Net



Present Value (NPV) of the additional GVA is £14.2bn (this include the benefits

between 2026 and 2035)

4. Year of maximum ANPS capacity (2050): there are expected to be 65,000

additional catalytic jobs in 2050 (compared to the future baseline). The Net

Present Value (NPV) of the additional GVA is £46.2bn (this include the benefits

between 2026 and 2050).

Table 18.51: Catalytic effects- national level

Phase 1

(2025)

Phase 2

(2027)

Phase 3

(2035)

Phase 3

(2050)

Additional jobs (compared to the future baseline) 0 17,000 50,000 65,000

Cumulative GVA impact (compared to the future

baseline - cumulative since 2026)

(NPV – 2017 prices)

£0.0bn £1.0bn £14.2bn £46.2bn

18.10.211 In the context of the national economy the magnitude of the effect is negligible in

Phase 1 (2025) and Phase 2 (2027) and low in Phase 3 (2035 and 2050).


18.10.212 The DCO Project is a NSIP, which is crucial to supporting future trade and FDI.

The magnitude of change is low (in Phase 3) in the context of the national

economy but is nonetheless a large change for an individual project. Similarly,

while the sensitivity of the receptor (the economy) is assessed to be of medium

sensitivity, FDI and trade is more sensitive, particularly in the context of

uncertainty associated with both the process and timing of the UK leaving the EU

and subsequent changes to the trade relationships. The assessment of

significance will be reviewed for the ES, at which point the future relationship with

the EU should be clearer.

18.10.213 At a national level, the significance of the effect is therefore deemed to be

negligible (not significant) in Phase 1 (2025) and Phase 2 (2027) and minor

positive (not significant) in Phase 3 (2035 and 2050) in the context of overall

national GVA.

18.10.214 It should also be noted that, as set out in paragraph 18.4.6, this does not include

an assessment of the passenger benefits and impact on airline profit identified in

the Updated Appraisal Report (2017) which informs the ANPS (2018).



Potential for wider economic effects such as inward investment, local retention of business rates, spending and supply chain effects

18.10.215 This section assesses the potential for wider economic effects of the DCO Project,

including inward investment, local retention of business rates, spending and

supply chain effects.

18.10.216 All operational activities in Table 6.1 (Chapter 6: DCO Project description) are

likely to result in these wider economic effects. The effect would occur across all

phases of the DCO Project, with the greatest effects occurring in Phase 3.

18.10.217 These effects are anticipated to be long term positive effects on the local and

national economy. Some of these effects have been fully, or partially captured

elsewhere in this chapter and therefore are not quantified (or assessed) again.

This includes supply chain and spending effects, which are captured through the

indirect and induced employment (refer to paragraphs 18.10.128 to 18.10.158).

Similarly, inward investment is already captured by the assessment of catalytic

effects which include the impact of FDI (refer to paragraphs 18.10.195 to

18.10.214). There may be additional domestic investment in addition to the FDI

(which has not been captured by the assessment of catalytic effects); this has not

been assessed in this section. The impact of the DCO Project on business rates

are considered in this section.

18.10.218 Business rates are a tax which is legally required to be paid on most non-domestic

properties. The DCO Project will result in additional business rates, either through

additional development or through increasing the value of existing buildings.

Business rates are set annually by central Government combining a property

valuation (rateable value) and a multiplier and collected by local authorities. The

extent to which local government retains business rates varies by local authorities,

and rules on this are in the process of being changed nationally. A proportion of

growth in business rates can be retained by local authorities. The rules for this are

set by Central Government. They have changed significantly since 2010 and the

Government has recently run a consultation on further reform which closed in

February 2019. The Government’s response to this is awaited.


18.10.219 In 2017/18 there was £24bn of business rates collected in England allowing for the

cost of collection, of which £1.1bn was collected in the core study area (refer to

Table 18.15).

18.10.220 Business rates are dependent on levels of vacancy (empty buildings are given

empty building relief for three to six months), the type of occupier (certain uses are

exempt, while charities and small businesses can be eligible for reliefs), the area

and value of new floorspace delivered, the area and value of floorspace

demolished, and government multipliers, revaluations and transitional reliefs. As



such, business rates are sensitive to the economic cycle, albeit with elements that

central/local government can control (rates and, to an extent, the level of rateable

floorspace through planning consent). The sensitivity of the receptor is medium in

the core study area and low at a national level.

Magnitude of effect

18.10.221 The ANPS (2018) states:

‘Expansion at Heathrow Airport is likely to increase the amount of locally collected

business rates in the area. The Government will consider how authorities can benefit from

this through a business rate retention scheme and the opportunities for authorities to work

together to share the benefits. Heathrow Airport is currently the highest single site

business rates payer in the UK.’

18.10.222 The DCO Project is likely to affect business rates though three main routes:

1. Direct impact on business rates since the floorspace and infrastructure

delivered will be liable for business rates and the DCO Project will also affect

the value of existing on-airport property that is retained

2. Indirect impacts of further development that occurs as a result of the DCO

Project (of which the majority would be expected to be within the core study

area

3. Direct short term loss of floorspace (as a result of the DCO Project) which is

not relocated either at all, or within the core study area.

18.10.223 At the current time, it is not possible to quantify the extent to which business rates

are likely to change as a result of the DCO Project (and therefore conclude on a

magnitude of effect), since there are so many variables which is likely to affect this

including displacement and relocation of businesses, level of indirect impacts of

further development; national economy trends; government policy decisions

(including revaluation, multipliers, changed to exemptions and discounts and

retention).

18.10.224 It is acknowledged that there may be loss of business rates associated with

displaced floorspace. Nonetheless, it is expected that the DCO Project would

substantially increase business rates paid by the Heathrow Airport Limited and

businesses located within the Airport over the long term. The extent to which this

may be retained locally is uncertain since it is dependent on government policy

decisions.


18.10.225 Since it is not possible to define the magnitude of effect, it is not possible in the

PEIR to provide an assessment of significance for this effect.



18.10.226 Heathrow will continue to work with the local authorities to understand the

implications of any Government policy announcements on changes to business

rate policy and the implications for local business rate retention.

Potential effects on the local and wider economy as a result of significant residual environmental effects which have the potential for economic consequences

18.10.227 There may be significant residual environmental effects that have the potential for

economic consequences.

18.10.228 Chapter 17: Noise and vibration has identified (on a precautionary basis) non-

residential receptors that could experience significant negative effects due to

forecast noise increase during the day and night. These include buildings used by

commercial businesses (such as offices and auditoria, which are relevant to this

chapter) as well as community facilities (such as places of worship, schools and

hospitals) which are considered in Chapter 11: Community.

18.10.229 Between the PEIR and ES, Heathrow will identify whether a significant negative

effect due to noise (including vibration) would occur at each receptor and if so,

Heathrow will engage with the owners and users of these receptors to identify

what further control measures are suitable to avoid or reduce the significant

negative effect. This and any other significant residual effects would be assessed

within the ES.

18.11 Preliminary assessment of significance

18.11.1 A summary of the preliminary assessment of significance remaining once all

environmental measures have been taken into consideration are presented in

Table 18.52. Table 18.52 also includes effects for which it has not been possible

to conclude on significance in the PEIR.

Table 18.52: Summary of significance of negative and positive effects

Receptor and

effect

Sensitivity /

importance or

value

Magnitude of

effect

Significance

of effect

Summary rationale

Construction activities

Potential

temporary or

permanent

displacement of

businesses or

commercial

Core study area

– low

Phase 1

(2022):

medium

Minor negative

(not

significant)

Minor negative effects at the core

study area level. Effect is

negligible in the national context.

It is not possible to assess the

significance of the effect on

specific businesses or business

National – low Phase 1

(2022):

negligible

Negligible (not

significant)



Receptor and

effect

Sensitivity /

importance or

value

Magnitude of

effect

Significance

of effect

Summary rationale

activity

including

property, land

and minerals

Not possible to

define for

specific

business at the

current time.

Not possible to

define for

specific

business at

the current

time

Not possible to

define for

specific

business at

the current

time

locations at this point in time,

since there is currently not

enough information on the

businesses that will be displaced

to define the sensitivity of

individual receptors at this level.

Further work will be undertaken

(including detailed land

referencing) for the ES to

understand the sensitivity of the

businesses to displacement

(depending on type of business,

location, and availability of similar

space to relocate to).

Potential effects

on sustainability

or viability of

businesses

High sensitivity

for businesses

in the inner

study area

(conservative

assumption

since only a

proportion of

businesses are

anticipated to be

high sensitivity).

Not possible to

define at the

current time.

Not possible to

define at the

current time.

It is not possible to conclude on

the significance of the effect on

sustainability or viability of

businesses since it is not possible

to identify the sensitivity of

specific business to change in

population catchments or the

magnitude of the effect (in terms

of changes to catchments).

Further work will be undertaken

for the ES to be able to conclude

on significance.

Disruption to

residents and

their economic

activity, through

environmental

changes and

changes in

access to/from

employment

locations

High sensitivity

for residents in

the inner study

area.

Not possible to

define at the

current time.

Not possible to

define at the

current time.


the significance of the effect at

this point in time since it is not

possible to identify the magnitude

of the effect in terms of changes

to journey times (and therefore

the likelihood that a resident’s

access to employment would be

disrupted). Further work will be

undertaken for the ES to be able

to conclude on significance.

Potential

temporary effect

of employment

generation and

effects on

businesses in

the construction

Core study area

– low

Phase 1

(2023): high

Moderate

positive

(significant)

Moderate positive effects

expected in the core study area in

Phase 1 when the bulk of

construction is expected to occur.

In the context of the national

construction market the effect is

minor positive during Phase 1.

Phase 1

(2025): high

Moderate

positive

(significant)

Phase 2 Minor positive



Receptor and

effect

Sensitivity /

importance or

value

Magnitude of

effect

Significance

of effect

Summary rationale

supply chain (2027):

medium

(not

significant)

Phase 3

(2035): low

Negligible (not

significant)

Phase 3

(2050): low

Negligible (not

significant)

National – low Phase 1

(2023):

medium

Minor positive

(not

significant)

Phase 1

(2025):

medium

Minor positive

(not

significant)

Phase 2

(2027): low

Negligible (not

significant)

Phase 3

(2035): low

Negligible (not

significant)

Phase 3

(2050):

negligible

Negligible (not

significant)

Potential effects

of new

employment and

business

generated by the

DCO Project on

the labour

market, skills

and training in

or related to the

construction

phase

Core study area

– medium

Phase 1

(2023): high

Major positive

(significant)

Significant positive effects

expected in the core study area in

Phase 1 when the bulk of

construction is expected to occur,

providing significant opportunities

for training and upskilling. This is

a moderate positive effect in the

context of the national labour

market (in Phase 1).

Phase 1

(2025): high

Major positive

(significant)

Phase 2

(2027):

medium

Moderate

positive (not

significant)

Phase 3

(2035): low

Minor positive

(not

significant)

Phase 3

(2050): low

Minor positive

(not

significant)

National –

medium

Phase 1

(2023):

medium

Moderate

positive

(significant)

Phase 1

(2025):

medium

Moderate

positive

(significant)

Phase 2 Minor positive



Receptor and

effect

Sensitivity /

importance or

value

Magnitude of

effect

Significance

of effect

Summary rationale

(2027): low (not

significant)

Phase 3

(2035): low

Minor positive

(not

significant)

Phase 3

(2050):

negligible

Negligible (not

significant)

Operational activities

Potential wider

effects on

employment and

economy

through direct,

indirect and

induced

influence of the

DCO Project

Core study area

– low

Phase 1

(2025): low

Negligible (not

significant)

Significant positive effects in the

core study area in Phase 3 where

the largest employment effect will

occur.

Not significant at a national level,

in the context of the national

labour market.

Phase 2

(2027):

medium

Minor positive

(not

significant)

Phase 2

(2030): high

Moderate

positive

(significant)

Phase 3

(2035): high

Moderate

positive

(significant)

National level –

low

Phase 1

(2025): low

Negligible (not

significant)

Phase 2

(2027): low

Negligible (not

significant)

Phase 2

(2030): low

Negligible (not

significant)

Phase 3

(2035): low

Negligible (not

significant)

Potential effects

of new

employment and

business

generated by the

DCO Project on

skills and

training in or

related to the

operational

development

Core study area

– medium

Phase 1

(2025): low

Minor positive

(not

significant)

Significant effects in the core

study area in Phase 3 where the

largest opportunities for training

and upskilling will occur. Not

significant at a national level, in

the context of the national labour

market.

Phase 2

(2027):

medium

Moderate

positive (not

significant)

Phase 3

(2035): high

Major positive

(significant)

National level –

medium

Phase 1

(2025): low

Minor positive

(not

significant)



Receptor and

effect

Sensitivity /

importance or

value

Magnitude of

effect

Significance

of effect

Summary rationale

Phase 2

(2027): low

Minor positive

(not

significant)

Phase 3

(2035): low

Minor positive

(not

significant)

Potential

additional

effects on

employment and

the economy

through catalytic

effects (trade,

FDI and tourism)

National level –

medium

Phase 1

(2025):

negligible

Negligible (not

significant)

Not significant in EIA terms in the

national context but should be

acknowledged that the DCO

Project is a NSIP which is crucial

to supporting future trade and

FDI.

Phase 2

(2027):

negligible

Negligible (not

significant)

Phase 3

(2035): low

Minor positive

(not

significant)

Phase 3

(2050): low

Minor positive

(not

significant)

Potential for

wider economic

effects such as

inward

investment, local

retention of

business rates,

spending and

supply chain

effects

Core study area

– medium

National level –

low

Not possible to

define.

Not possible to

define.


the significance of the effect at

this point in time. Heathrow will

continue to work with the local

authorities to understand the

implications of any Government

policy announcements on

changes to business rate policy

and the implications for local

business rate retention.

Potential effects

on the local and

wider economy

as a result of

significant

residual

environmental

effects which

have the

potential for

economic

consequences

Not possible to

define at this

time.

Not possible to

define at this

time.

Not possible to

define at this

time.

It is not possible to assess the

significance of the effects on the

local and wider economy as a

result of significant residual

environmental effects since the

preliminary nature of the PEIR

means that the level of

environmental data is less

detailed than the level of

information that will be included in

the ES. The level of detail on

environmental effects in the ES

will allow for conclusion on

significance.



18.12 Assessment of cumulative effects

Overview

18.12.1 A cumulative effects assessment typically assesses the impacts of other

developments to ascertain whether the effects of these would change the

conclusion of the assessment when combined with the effects of the proposed

scheme.

18.12.2 Modelling undertaken by Oxford Economics sets out population and employment

projections both with and without the DCO Project. It is a ‘growthed’ model and

therefore is inherently cumulative.

18.12.3 The without DCO Project scenario informs the future baseline (refer to

paragraphs 18.9.42 to 18.9.47). The with DCO Project projections show that there

is an insignificant change in the population of the core study area as a result of the

DCO Project (the population of the core study area would be 0.2% larger with the

DCO Project in 2040) which suggests that there is capacity within local labour

markets in the core study area to fill new jobs.

18.12.4 As this assessment is inherently cumulative (it takes into account employment and

population projections and therefore accounts for potential new development), no

additional cumulative effects assessment is required.

18.13 Next steps

Overview

18.13.1 The PEIR is a preliminary assessment based on available information at the time

of writing; the assessment of the socio-economic and employment effects will

continue to evolve as further information is available, any scheme refinements are

taken into account, assumptions and modelling is refined, and to take into account

responses from the Airport Expansion Consultation (June 2019) and further

engagement. This section sets out the next steps in this process (although further

work is not limited to that set out in this section).

18.13.2 Heathrow is conducting a land referencing process to understand the nature of the

commercial businesses that are likely to be displaced or disrupted. This

information will be available for the application for development consent and will

help to inform the ES as it will provide information on the number of businesses

(including agricultural and minerals businesses) affected, the quantum of

floorspace displaced, and the sensitivity of the businesses to relocation.

18.13.3 Study areas are likely to be refined as more detailed information becomes

available on the likely commuting patterns during the construction and operational

phases. More detailed information is also likely to become available on catchment



areas (labour and customers) of business locations and the commuting patterns of

residents of the inner study area (and therefore understand how their access to

economic activity may change).

18.13.4 The approach to forecasting direct onsite employment will also be developed and

refined, including baseline employment estimate, efficiency assumptions and

dependent variables (to include ATMs). This will allow for forecasts to be produced

to 2050.

18.13.5 Engagement will continue after the PEIR; this will include consideration of the

responses to the Airport Expansion Consultation (June 2019) and continuing

technical engagement to agree baseline, sensitivities and methodology as

information changes (such as baseline information over time) or more information

becomes available. This will include continued engagement with HSPG, including

on the joint evidence base and to understand the implications of any Government

policy announcements on changes to business rate policy and the implications for

local business rate retention. Engagement will also continue with local education

providers through the Skills Implementation Group and the education partnership.

Documents

Volume 1, Chapter 18 Socio-economics and employment · 2019-06-20 · (trade, FDI and tourism) 18.105 ... Gross and net additional employment – core study area 18.96 Table 18.47: