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Voter Voter Turnout Turnout Accounting for Voter Accounting for Voter Turnout Turnout Demographic Demographic Socioeconomi Socioeconomi c c Psychological Psychological

Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

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Family Income Turnout rises sharply from low to middle income levels. Socioeconomic Characteristics

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Page 1: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Voter Voter TurnoutTurnout

Accounting for Voter Accounting for Voter TurnoutTurnout

DemographicDemographicSocioeconomicSocioeconomic

PsychologicalPsychological

Page 2: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

EducationEducation increases increases one’s capacity for one’s capacity for understanding understanding complex and intangible complex and intangible subjects such as subjects such as politics, as well as politics, as well as encouraging the ethic encouraging the ethic of civic responsibility.of civic responsibility.

Socioeconomic Socioeconomic CharacteristicsCharacteristics

0 to

8 Y

ears

9 to

11

Year

s

Hig

h Sc

hool

Gra

duat

e

Som

e C

olle

ge

Col

lege

Gra

duat

e

Hig

her D

egre

e

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

56

47

73

8591

95Voter Turnout by Education

Hig

her D

egre

e

Page 3: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Family Income Family Income Turnout rises Turnout rises sharply from low to sharply from low to middle income middle income levels.levels.

$0 to

$9,

999

$10,

000

to $

19,9

99

$20,

000

to $

29,9

99

$30,

000

to $

39,0

00

$40,

000

to $

49,9

99

$50,

000

to $

74,9

99

$75,

000

and

Ove

r

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

55

6872

8288 88 89

Voter Turnout by Income

Socioeconomic Socioeconomic CharacteristicsCharacteristics

Page 4: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Occupational Occupational Status Status Turnout Turnout rises sharply from rises sharply from unskilled laborers to unskilled laborers to white collar or white collar or professional jobs.professional jobs.

Socioeconomic Socioeconomic CharacteristicsCharacteristics

Prof

essi

onal

Man

ager

s/Te

chni

cal

Sale

s/C

leric

al

Serv

ice

Skill

ed L

abor

Uns

kille

d La

bor

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10090 88

82

7368

61

Voter Turnout by Education

Page 5: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Race & Race & EthnicityEthnicityThe lower average The lower average education and education and incomes of racial incomes of racial and ethnic groups and ethnic groups reduce the reduce the likelihood that likelihood that members of these members of these groups will vote.groups will vote.

Demographic Demographic CharacteristicsCharacteristics

Whi

te

Afr

ican

Am

eric

an

His

pani

c A

mer

ican

Asi

an A

mer

ican

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

7871

61 58

Voter Turnout by Race/Ethnicity

Page 6: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

AgeAgeAs people grow older, As people grow older, they gain knowledge they gain knowledge and other resources and other resources that make that make participation easier. participation easier. Community ties such Community ties such as home ownership, as home ownership, marriage, and children marriage, and children develop with age.develop with age.

Demographic Demographic CharacteristicsCharacteristics

18 to

25

26 to

35

36 to

45

46 to

55

56 to

65

Ove

r 66

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

56

7480 83 85 81

Voter Turnout by Age

Page 7: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

GenderGenderSince the “Women’s Since the “Women’s Movement” in the Movement” in the 1960, women started 1960, women started to vote at the same to vote at the same rate as men. Since rate as men. Since 1984, white women 1984, white women have often voted at a have often voted at a slightly higher rate slightly higher rate than white men in than white men in presidential elections.presidential elections.

Demographic Demographic CharacteristicsCharacteristics

Men

Wom

en

0

10

2030

4050

60

7080

90100

77 76

Voter Turnout by Gender

Page 8: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Party Party IdentificationIdentificationPeople who identify People who identify strongly with one of strongly with one of the political parties the political parties are more likely to are more likely to show up at the polls show up at the polls on Election Day on Election Day than weak than weak identifiers or identifiers or independents.independents.

Psychological CharacteristicsPsychological CharacteristicsSt

rong

Iden

tifie

rs

Wea

k Id

entif

iers

Lean

ing

Inde

pend

ents

Pure

Inde

pend

ents

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

88

76 74

61

Voter Turnout by Party Identification

Page 9: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

EfficacyEfficacyThe feeling that one The feeling that one can have an effect on can have an effect on politics and political politics and political decision makers – also decision makers – also motivates people to motivates people to vote. Those who feel vote. Those who feel ineffective view voting ineffective view voting and other types of and other types of political participation political participation as wasted efforts.as wasted efforts.

Psychological Psychological CharacteristicsCharacteristics

Low

Med

ium

Hig

h

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

65

7985

Voter Turnout by Efficacy

Page 10: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Interest in Interest in PoliticsPoliticsPeople who have an People who have an interest in politics and interest in politics and follow it in newspapers follow it in newspapers and magazines are also and magazines are also more likely to vote than more likely to vote than those who are not those who are not interested and who do interested and who do not follow politics in the not follow politics in the print media.print media.

Very

Muc

h

Som

ewha

t

Not

Muc

h

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 91

75

44

Voter Turnout by Interest

Psychological Psychological CharacteristicsCharacteristics

Page 11: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Interest in Interest in PoliticsPoliticsThose who read Those who read about politics about politics learn a good deal; learn a good deal; those who only those who only watch television watch television do not.do not.

Rea

d

Did

Not

Rea

d

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10089

68

Voter Turnout by Interest

Psychological Psychological CharacteristicsCharacteristics

Page 12: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Group ConsciousnessGroup ConsciousnessIdentification with one’s Identification with one’s social group (for instance, social group (for instance, black consciousness, gender black consciousness, gender groups, issues groups, etc.) groups, issues groups, etc.) are more likely to participate are more likely to participate in elections.in elections.

Psychological Psychological CharacteristicsCharacteristics

Page 13: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Trust in GovernmentTrust in GovernmentOne’s attitude of trust One’s attitude of trust toward government seems toward government seems to have little or no influence to have little or no influence on voter turnout.on voter turnout.

Psychological Psychological CharacteristicsCharacteristics

Page 14: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Geographic CharacteristicsGeographic Characteristics

New

Eng

land

/Mid

Atla

ntic

Nor

th C

entr

al

Sout

h

Bor

der

Wes

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

80 82

68 66

82

Voter Turnout by Region

Page 15: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Registration LawsRegistration Laws

The more difficult and time The more difficult and time consuming it is to vote, the less consuming it is to vote, the less likely people are to do so.likely people are to do so.1. Almost all industrial 1. Almost all industrial democracies have automatic voter democracies have automatic voter registration.registration.2. Many industrialized 2. Many industrialized democracies have a system of democracies have a system of compulsory voting.compulsory voting.

Page 16: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Registration in the United Registration in the United StatesStates

Closing DateClosing DatePoll TaxesPoll TaxesLiteracy TestsLiteracy TestsIntimidationIntimidation

Page 17: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Campaign ContactsCampaign ContactsEfforts to mobilize votersEfforts to mobilize voters• • Party Campaigns (Soft Party Campaigns (Soft Money)Money)• • Nonpartisan Interest GroupsNonpartisan Interest Groups

Oregon Mail-In VoteOregon Mail-In Vote• • Government StrategiesGovernment Strategies

Oregon Mail-In VoteOregon Mail-In VoteTexas Two-Week VoteTexas Two-Week VoteMotor Voter Act of 1993Motor Voter Act of 1993

Page 18: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Attempts to Increase Voter Attempts to Increase Voter TurnoutTurnout

Australian Australian

BallotBallot19th 19th AmendmentAmendment

15th 15th AmendmentAmendment

26th 26th AmendmentAmendment

Motor-Voter Law

Motor-Voter Law

Page 19: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

POLITICAL ACTIVISTSPOLITICAL ACTIVISTS

11%

22%

21%15%

20%

4% 7%Complete Activists

Complete Inactivists

Voter Specialists

Campaigners

Communalists

Parochial Participants

Unclassified

Complete Inactives

Page 20: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Complete Activist Complete Activist Participate in every way possible1111

%% Complete Inactivist Complete Inactivist Do not participate; not even in voting2222

%%Voting Specialist Voting Specialist They do nothing but vote2121

%% Communalist Communalist Avoid the conflict of campaigns - focus on civic and charitable groups

2020%%Parochial Participants Parochial Participants Only became involved after contact with a public official to solve a problem

4%4%

Page 21: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

How Voters Make How Voters Make ChoicesChoices

• • Party IdentificationParty Identification• • Candidate CharacteristicsCandidate Characteristics• • IssuesIssues• • Changes Over TimeChanges Over Time• • Social GroupsSocial Groups

Page 22: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

This is more than an emotional or This is more than an emotional or psychological attachments; it is a psychological attachments; it is a way in which people think of way in which people think of themselves and an influence on themselves and an influence on how they behave.how they behave.Perceptual Screens are used to Perceptual Screens are used to judge candidates. judge candidates.

Party IdentificationParty Identification

Page 23: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

The candidates’ personalities, The candidates’ personalities, experiences, past records, and experiences, past records, and even their physical appearances even their physical appearances make up this set of voting make up this set of voting influences.influences.Some voters are influenced by Some voters are influenced by irrational prejudices.irrational prejudices.

Candidate Candidate CharacteristicsCharacteristics

Page 24: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Issues lie at the heart of democratic Issues lie at the heart of democratic elections. Although few people lack elections. Although few people lack the knowledge of public policy, the knowledge of public policy, issues still do affect campaigns and issues still do affect campaigns and elections.elections.Retrospective Issue VotingRetrospective Issue Voting - - deciding how deciding how

to vote on past policy outcomes.to vote on past policy outcomes.

IssuesIssues

Prospective Issue VotingProspective Issue Voting - - deciding deciding how to vote on the basis of a candidate’s how to vote on the basis of a candidate’s likely future policies.likely future policies.

Page 25: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Sociotropic Voters - People who Sociotropic Voters - People who vote on the basis of their vote on the basis of their community’s economic interests, community’s economic interests, rather than their personal rather than their personal economic interestseconomic interests

IssuesIssuesRetrospective Issue Voting - Retrospective Issue Voting - deciding how to vote on past policy deciding how to vote on past policy outcomes.outcomes.

Page 26: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Prospective Issue Voting - deciding how Prospective Issue Voting - deciding how to vote on the basis of a candidate’s to vote on the basis of a candidate’s likely future policies.likely future policies.In order for an issue to play any role in a voter’s In order for an issue to play any role in a voter’s decision, the voter must:decision, the voter must:

1. be aware of the issue and have an opinion on 1. be aware of the issue and have an opinion on it;it;

2. have some idea about what the government 2. have some idea about what the government is is currently doing on that issue;currently doing on that issue;

3. see a difference between the policies the two 3. see a difference between the policies the two candidates propose in response to the issue.candidates propose in response to the issue.

Page 27: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Researchers suggest the following criteria for issue Researchers suggest the following criteria for issue voting. An issue can influence someone’s vote if the voting. An issue can influence someone’s vote if the voter:voter:

1. can place himself/herself on the scale;1. can place himself/herself on the scale;

2. can place both candidates on the scale;2. can place both candidates on the scale;

3. sees a difference between the candidates;3. sees a difference between the candidates;

4. correctly places Democratic candidates to the left of 4. correctly places Democratic candidates to the left of Republican candidates.Republican candidates.

Government Government should ensure should ensure jobs and good jobs and good living standardliving standard

Government Government should let each should let each

person go person go aheadahead

11 22 33 44 55 66 77

Page 28: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

Easy IssuesEasy IssuesSimple issues that allow voters to make quick, Simple issues that allow voters to make quick, emotional decisions without much information. emotional decisions without much information. (E.g. crime, abortion, drugs.)(E.g. crime, abortion, drugs.)

Hard IssuesHard IssuesComplicated issues that require voters to have Complicated issues that require voters to have information about the policy and to spend time information about the policy and to spend time considering their choices.considering their choices.(E.g. federal budget, foreign policy, health (E.g. federal budget, foreign policy, health care.)care.)

Page 29: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

The relative importance of party The relative importance of party identification, candidate characteristics, and identification, candidate characteristics, and issues may change from one election to the issues may change from one election to the next.next.

Factor which may change voter decisions:Factor which may change voter decisions:1. Dramatic events such as war or recession1. Dramatic events such as war or recession2. Issue campaigns and ideological conflicts2. Issue campaigns and ideological conflicts3. Campaigns which focus on character or 3. Campaigns which focus on character or scandal.scandal.

Changes Over Changes Over TimeTime

Page 30: Voter Turnout Accounting for Voter Turnout Demographic Socioeconomic Psychological

1. Family Income1. Family Income2. Education2. Education3. Union 3. Union HouseholdHousehold4. Race/Ethnicity4. Race/Ethnicity

Social GroupsSocial GroupsThe following social groups have The following social groups have significant impact on elections:significant impact on elections:

5. Religion5. Religion6. Gender6. Gender7. Ideology7. Ideology