Water Management National Application - LCLUClcluc.umd.edu/sites/default/files/lcluc...0.pdf · FY07 Plan to assess value of Earth science data in EPA in EPA Non-point Source Water

Water Management National Application

Lawrence Friedl & Jared EntinNASA Headquarters

NASA Land-Cover and Land-Use Change Science Team Meeting

October 10-12, 2006

Extending the societal and economic benefits of Earth science research, information, and technology …

National Space Policy

National Aeronautics and Space Act of 1958 (as amended)Section 102. The preservation of the role of the United States as a leader in aeronautical

and space science and technology and in the application thereof …The most effective utilization of the scientific and engineering resources of the United States, with close cooperation among all interested agencies of the United States in order to avoid unnecessary duplication of effort, facilities, and equipment.

Section 203. The [NASA] Administration shall … (3) provide for the widest practicable and appropriate dissemination of information concerning its activities and the results thereof.

National Space Policy (1996) NASA, in coordination with other departments and agencies as appropriate, will focus its

research and development efforts in (parts of longer list): - Earth observation to better understand global change and the effect of

natural and human influences on the environment; - Space technologies and applications to develop new technologies in

support of U.S. Government needs and our economic competitiveness.

Items from 2006 NASA Strategic Plan

http://science.hq.nasa.gov/strategy/index.html

“NASA’s programs in Earth science also are central to three important Presidential initiatives: the Climate Change Research Initiative, Global Earth Observation, and the Oceans Action Plan.”

“NASA’s Applied Sciences program will continue the Agency’s eEfforts in benchmarking the assimilation of NASA research results into policy and management decision-support tools that are vital for the Nation’s environment, economy, safety, and security.”

Earth Science Division:

Applied Sciences Program

NASA Research to Societal Benefits

NASA Earth Science program produces “research results”, such as:

• Scientific Observatories, measurements, data dets• Research Models• Advanced Sensor and Space System Technology• Data Archives and Interoperability Technology• High Performance Computing and Networking Systems• Knowledge products• Increased Capacity

The Earth Science program is extended through the Applied Sciences Program…

• …to accelerate the use of these “research results” to improve future operational systems…

• …by partnering with operational organizations to benchmark usefulimprovements in their decision support systems for societal benefit.

Integrating Knowledge, Capacity and Systems into Solutions

Value andBenefits to citizens

and societyPartnership Area

Predictions/ Forecasts

High-Performance Computing, Communication, and Visualization

Standards and Interoperability

Decision Support Tools

AssessmentsDecision Support SystemsScenario Tools

Policy Decisions

Management Decisions

ImpactsOutcomesOutputsInputs

Data

Earth Observatories

Planetary Models

SatelliteAirborne In-Situ

LandOceans Atmosphere Solar

NASA and Research Partners Partners with Decision-Support Tools

Applied Sciences Program Approach to Integrated System Solutions

Observations

Decision Support Tools/Systems

Generally, decision support systems are interactive, computer-involved systems that provide organizations with methods to retrieve and summarize information, analyze alternatives, and evaluate scenarios to gain insight on critical factors, sensitivities, risks, and consequences of potential decisions.

- Analysis activities- Actions & Management decisions

Types of decision support systems and tools include:- Early warning systems- Planning tools - Forecasting- Assessments- Decision boards- Expert Systems- Alternatives analysis- Visualization tools- Impact analysis & response- Resource allocation

Decision support systems allow the systematic evaluation and analysis of the relative value of various inputs to the decisions.

Ecological Forecasting

AgriculturalEfficiency

Air Quality

Invasive Species

Aviation

Energy Management

CarbonManagement

WaterManagementHomeland

Security

Disaster Management

Coastal Management

Public Health

Applications of National Priority

Program Activities

Project Solicitations

Directed Projects

“Rapid Prototyping” Projects

Congressionally-directed Projects

Crosscutting Activities- Interoperability activities- Human capital development- Analysis and database of Earth science research

----------------------

Primary Products are “Benchmark Reports”

Current and Future Solicitations

REASoN CAN (Awards 2003) Runs FY04-FY09

Decisions CAN (Awards 6/05) Runs FY05-FY08

ROSES 2005 (Awards 3/06) Runs FY06-FY09

ROSES 2006 No solicitation





. . .

Earth Science Division:

Applied Sciences Program

Water Management National Application

Water Management Program Structure

Water Management Themes

• Irrigation & Water Delivery• Flow / Flood Forecast• Drought• Water Quality

- BASINS Water Quality - RiverWare Reservoir Management - AWARDS ET Toolbox Water Supply &

Demand Systems- NOAA NWS River Forecasting Systems - National Integrated Drought Information System & US Drought Monitor DSS- Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis

Tenets of the Water Management Program:

• Develop and nurture partnerships

• Identify and assess partners’ water management responsibilities & decision-support systems; evaluate capacity of NASA Earth science results to enhance systems

• Validate, verify and benchmark application of NASA products with the partners’ DSTs

• With partners, assess the value of Earth system science results & support adoption into operational use

• Communicate results and partners’achievements to appropriate water management communities and stakeholders

Water Management Program Structure

Water Management Themes

• Irrigation & Water Delivery• Flow / Flood Forecast• Drought• Water Quality

- BASINS Water Quality - RiverWare Reservoir Management - AWARDS ET Toolbox Water Supply &

Demand Systems- NOAA NWS River Forecasting Systems - National Integrated Drought Information System & US Drought Monitor DSS- Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis

Progress

Benchmark NOAA NCEP Eta. NCEP actively using NASA LIS and MODIS research products with plans to make operational.

FY07 Plan to assess value of Earth science data in EPA in EPA Non-point Source Water Quality Project.

FY07 Plan to assess value of Earth science data in Reclamation’s RiverWare and AWARDS ET Toolbox.

Air Force Weather Agency successfully implemented NASA Land Information System to replace AGRMET providing global soil moisture and temperature analysis.

Water Management Program Review in June 2006- Seek more active involvement at Water resource managers meetings and conferences (e.g, AWRA, NIDIS, AMS, etc.)

Water Management Program Workshop June 13-14, 2006 - College Park, MD

Workshop Objectives• Review NASA Water Management Program activities and identify opportunities for consideration• Networking between Water Management-funded investigators

Water Working Group (Working Group Charter Developed and Approved)1) Jim Carleton - EPA 2) Don Frevert - US Bureau of Reclamation 3) Thomas Graziano – NOAA NWS/OHD 4) Brian Parsons - American Society of Civil Engineers 5) Dale Straw - Colorado Div. of Water Resources 6) Mike Thomas - Florida Environment Protection 7) Kathleen White – Army Corp of Engineers

Recommendations & Major Action Action Items Taken (Status)• Shorter and more concise Water Management Program Plan with functional themes - Revisit setting of priorities in terms of vision for the next 5-years. - Indicate what we are doing and the vision driving it.• Join and participate in the Interagency (led by USGS) ACWI-SOH• Participate in prioritized meetings and groups ASCE 2007, NIDIS, & Western Governors’ Association • Specific recommendations included:1) Prioritize water quality in program (FY07 and beyond)2) Include thermal band in Landsat Data Continuity Mission 3) Coordinate Project Reporting. Include Quarterly Updates.

Water Management – Current/Future Directions

Theme Current Future

• Irrigation & Water Climate forecasts (W. US) & Enhanced forecasts (esp. Eastern US)

Delivery snowmelt run-off, reservoirs

Regional ET- Aggett Int’l Activities (Africa, S. America w/ IGWCO)

Regional ET - Hendrickx

AWARDS / RiverWare

• Floods & Flow NOAA/NWS River Forecast Damage assessment (w/ Disaster Man.)

USGS Flash Flood (NEWS) New Missions (GPM, NPP VIIRS)

• Droughts USDM & NIDIS Soil Moisture

Climate prediction (link w/NEWS proj.)

• Water Quality EPA BASINS WQ in Receiving Waters

WQ in bays – Chesapeake Bay

• Program Mngt. Water Man. Working Group App Link to NASA SMD, National & Int’l Work

Workshops, Investigator Meetings Integrated Watershed Management

Major Accomplishments

Six watersheds with varying topography and land

use chosen and calibrated

LDAS and LIS data sets developed for simulation

Evaluation report completed

Major Milestones & Activities

Evaluation report completed

Runs with default parameters completed for four

watersheds

LDAS data used as input to two watersheds

Watershed sub-divided to accept gridded LDAS and LIS data

Project goal: Assess the potential for LDAS and LIS products to improve performance of the EPA BASINS Nonpoint Source Pollution model used in source water protection, and watershed management to establish Total Maximum Daily Loads of pollutants in a river.

Project goal: Assess the potential for LDAS and LIS products to improve performance of the EPA BASINS Nonpoint Source Pollution model used in source water protection, and watershed management to establish Total Maximum Daily Loads of pollutants in a river.

EPA BASINSEPA BASINS

Action Items and Issues

Complete LIS data sets with stage IV precip.

Finish default runs to establish baseline conditions

Run BASINS with NASA data and data products

Write Benchmark report

Risks and Mitigation

Question about use of calibrated parameters – are they reasonable?

Missing input data for default runs

BASINS watershed delineation program does not match the location of stream gauging station

Earth System Models

Land Surface Models:

MOSAIC, VIC

Noah, CLM

Data Assimilation Products

NLDAS, LIS

Watershed Hydrology:

HSPF

Earth System Models

Land Surface Models:

MOSAIC, VIC

Noah, CLM

Data Assimilation Products

NLDAS, LIS

Watershed Hydrology:

HSPF

Value & Benefitsto Society

Quantitative and qualitative benefits from improved

decisions

Improved Water Quality

Identification of Nonpoint

Sources of Pollution

Drinking Water Protection

Improved Recreation

Watershed studies

Developing Total Maximum

Daily Loads

Watershed Characterization

Reports



decisions

Improved Water Quality

Identification of Nonpoint

Sources of Pollution

Drinking Water Protection

Improved Recreation

Watershed studies

Developing Total Maximum

Daily Loads

Watershed Characterization

Reports

Observations, Parameters & Products

Earth Observations Surface Temperature: Terra, Aqua,

GOES, Landsat

Precipitation: Aqua, TRMM,

Snow Cover: Terra, Aqua

Snow Quantity: Aqua

Ground Water: GRACE

Land Cover - Vegetation: Terra, Aqua, Landsat

Surface Radiation: GOES, Terra,

Aqua, Aster

Topography: SRTM

Earth Observations Surface Temperature: Terra, Aqua,

GOES, Landsat

Precipitation: Aqua, TRMM,

Snow Cover: Terra, Aqua

Snow Quantity: Aqua

Ground Water: GRACE

Land Cover - Vegetation: Terra, Aqua, Landsat

Surface Radiation: GOES, Terra,

Aqua, Aster

Topography: SRTM

Decision Support Systems, Assessments,

Management ActionsBASINS - HSPF

AnalysesPoint and Nonpoint Sources

of PollutionTotal Maximum Daily LoadsConcentrations of Water

Quality VariablesStorm Runoff Volume and

PeakBaseflow (Ground Water)

Decisions / ActionsImplement Best management

Practices to Control RunoffEnforcement of Water

Quality StandardsTest Various Management

Options


Management ActionsBASINS - HSPF

AnalysesPoint and Nonpoint Sources

of PollutionTotal Maximum Daily LoadsConcentrations of Water

Quality VariablesStorm Runoff Volume and

PeakBaseflow (Ground Water)

Decisions / ActionsImplement Best management

Practices to Control RunoffEnforcement of Water

Quality StandardsTest Various Management

Options

Water Management: NASA-EPA Non-Point Source Water Quality (BASINS)

Predictions, Dataand Data Products

Information products

Rainfall rates and spatialDistribution

Snow Cover & DepthSoil MoistureEvapotranspirationLand Cover/Land UseDigital Elevation DataVegetation Indices



Rainfall rates and spatialDistribution

Snow Cover & DepthSoil MoistureEvapotranspirationLand Cover/Land UseDigital Elevation DataVegetation Indices

Toll/Engman

BASINS-HSPF: Precipitation & Evapotranspiration for Flow

• Rain Gauges (Default method) not Representative of Precipitation Events

• Satellite/Doppler Spatial Data Compliments Gauge Data

= BASINS defaultrain gauges

= NLDAS Stage IIprecipitation

Chesapeake Bay Watershed

STATISTICS 2001 2002 2003

111.03 72.00 201.99

92.02 64.75 233.59

Modeled Flow Estimations for NE Anacostia Basin

NATIONAL vs. USGS

NLDAS 1/8th Degree vs. USGS

Correlation Coefficient

RMS Error

Model Fit Efficiency (NS)

Correlation Coefficient

RMS Error

Model Fit Efficiency (NS)

0.63 0.80 0.83

0.78 0.84 0.77

0.33 0.62 0.69

0.54 0.70 0.58

NASA-EPA Study to Test NASA Products for Nonpoint Source Water Qualit

Daily Rainfall Comparison (6/1/03-8/31/03)

y

Major Accomplishments Major Milestones & Activities

Project goal: Use MODIS-derived products with modeling systems, like SEBAL-METRIC and the Land Information System (LIS), to produce relevant land surface, energy and moisture flux information, including evapotranspiration output, which can provide Reclamation additional data for the AWARDS ET Toolbox to help improve water consumption estimates.

Project goal: Use MODIS-derived products with modeling systems, like SEBAL-METRIC and the Land Information System (LIS), to produce relevant land surface, energy and moisture flux information, including evapotranspiration output, which can provide Reclamation additional data for the AWARDS ET Toolbox to help improve water consumption estimates.

ReclamationReclamation’’s AWARDS ET Toolboxs AWARDS ET Toolbox

Action Items and IssuesRisks and Mitigation

•Toolbox domain in NeSTAGE II/IV precipitation datasets into LIS•with in-situ eddy covariance flux measurements•C

Set up LIS LSMs for the AWARDS ET w Mexico; implemented

Validating the ET Toolbox and LIS LSMs

Presented preliminary results at the NOAA PPA PI’s meeting in Tucson, AZ

• R. Allen (U of Idaho) has calibrated entire year of SEBAL-METRIC with MODIS data and is able to generate crop coefficients and monthly ET fields for Reclamation• The AWARDS ET Toolbox has now been validated for certain vegetation types in New Mexico, and will be further validated soon.

The main LSMs in LIS are showing an

parian vegetated corridor along the Rio

Sensitivity case studies are being run with derstand what is the

ation, especially in er months.

• Issue 1: Local in-situ meteorological forcing datasets in New Mexico have different data coverages in time.• Action Item: Statistical evaluation is underway to generate longer term record of well validated meteorological datasets for model-algorithm comparisons

•underestimation in ET and its components for the riGrande •the LSMs to better uncause for this underestimthe summ


Project goal: Use MODIS-derived products with the modeling system, the Land Information System (LIS), to produce relevant land surface, energy and moisture flux information, including snowpack fields, which can provide Reclamation additional data for its RiverWare DSS to help improve water supply estimates.

Project goal: Use MODIS-derived products with the modeling system, the Land Information System (LIS), to produce relevant land surface, energy and moisture flux information, including snowpack fields, which can provide Reclamation additional data for its RiverWare DSS to help improve water supply estimates.

ReclamationReclamation’’s RiverWares RiverWare


• Set up LIS LSMs for the Columbia-Yakima RiverWare domain in Washington state; implemented 1km elevation adjustment for LDAS forcing fields.• Validating the LIS LSM and MODIS snow cover against SNOTEL and Daily COOP station data• Participation in NASA Water Management

Meeting in College Park, MD, June 2006

• New Task Plan with Reclamation underway for updating validation and benchmarking activities focused on improving inputs to RiverWare.

• Issue 1: Improvement needed to model forcing and parameters for high resolution runs with LIS models• Action item: Accurate registration of the parameter fields and MODIS products to be done for region and for the 1km scale• Action item: New correction made to forcing fields at 1km

• Major delay of funding from NASAcaused delay for work with Reclamation

• Retirement of original Reclamation staff workers has slowed progress as well

Reclamation RiverWare and AWARDS ET Toolbox DSTs

• Improved water supply estimates and predictions

• Improve ability to monitor and predict flood events

• Improve ET estimates for riparian and agricultural areas for irrigators

• Help water resource managers make more informed decisions to help meet hydrologic and ESA needs

• Use of soil moisture estimates can improve monitoring effects of drought conditions

• Allow users to model any river basin, manage data input and output efficiently enough for near real-time operations

• Integrates reservoir systems, including flood control, water supply and quality, and hydro-electric power-dam operations

RiverWareGeneral river basin modeling environment for operations

and planning

Snowpack Characteristics

• Runoff/streamflow

• ET Estimates

• Soil Moisture

• Energy Fluxes

•Meteorological Data

• Assimilation Techiques for use with remote sensing data in LSMs

• Research and operations involve multi-spatio-temporal scales

AWARDS (AgriculturalWAter ResourcesDecision Support system)

• ET Toolbox – Estimate high resolution daily rainfall and water depletion through evapotranspiration (crop, riparian, open water)

• Used as input into RiverWare

• LSMs: Mosaic, Noah, VIC, Catchment, CLM2

• Atmospheric Models/Forecasts: NCEP Eta, FSL RUC, MM5, CSU RAMS, NASA GEOS (FVDAS)

• River Routing/Streamflow Modeling: MMS, CASC2D, DHVSM, TOPMODEL, Vflo™

Science Models

Value and Benefits

• Snow cover and water equivalent: MODIS, AMSR-e, SSMI, SMMR

• Soil Moisture/Water Storage: AMSR-e, TRMM TMI, GRACE, SMOS

• Radiation/Energy Budget:GOES, MODIS, CERES, ERBE

• Land Use/Cover: MODIS, ASTER, Landsat

• River discharge height (large basins): TOPEX/POSEIDON, ERS-1 & 2, ENVISAT

• Land Surface/Elevation:SRTM

Monitoring and Measurements

Information Products, Predictions,

Visualizations, and Computing

Dat

a

Arsenault

D. Boyle/DRI

RiverWare: Using NASA Products in Reclamation Decision Support Tools

Aqua Terra

(NOAA)

(BOR)

(NASA)

(NASA)

Regulating Reservoirs


Project goal: Assimilate hydrologic and ecologic observations from NASA Earth satellite sensors, including AMSR-E, QuikSCAT, and MODIS, into a national drought monitoring system, specifically the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), an existing national decision support tool used for drought monitoring and drought early warning.

Project goal: Assimilate hydrologic and ecologic observations from NASA Earth satellite sensors, including AMSR-E, QuikSCAT, and MODIS, into a national drought monitoring system, specifically the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), an existing national decision support tool used for drought monitoring and drought early warning.

National Drought Information SystemNational Drought Information System


• NASA funds received at JPL and put on account in June 2006

• Participation in NASA Water Management Meeting

• Participation in NOAA Drought Challenge Workshop

• Modifying Land Surface Water Processor for newly reprocessed QuikSCAT data

• Project started at JPL in June 2006

• Focus on processing subcontracts from JPL to USGS, NDMC, and NOAA

• Issue 1: Additional costs due to subcontract overhead at JPL to process and send subcontracts to co-investigators

• Issue 2: Additional work for Principal Investigator at JPL on subcontract processing, monitoring, and management

• Action items: JPL works subcontracts in Year 1; NASA to send funds directly to co-investigators in Year 2 and Year 3.

• Major delay and cut of funding from NASAcausing delay and de-scoping of work (< reports, < drought types, < AMSR-E work)

• NASA cannot send subcontracts to USGS, NDMC, and NOAA for Year 1

• JPL to send subcontracts to co-investigatorsfor NASA in Year 1

Integrated System Solution: National Drought Information System

Earth System ModelsSatellite Algorithms

AMSR-E algorithms (JPL)- Soil moisture- Vegetation water content

QuikSCAT algorithms (JPL)- Precipitation water change on land surface

- Precipitation frequency

MODIS algorithms- Vegetation indices (USGS)- Lake/reservoir area (DFO)

Earth System ModelsSatellite Algorithms

AMSR-E algorithms (JPL)- Soil moisture- Vegetation water content

QuikSCAT algorithms (JPL)- Precipitation water change on land surface

- Precipitation frequency

MODIS algorithms- Vegetation indices (USGS)- Lake/reservoir area (DFO)



decisions

• Wider dissemination of drought information

• Improved understanding of drought effects at sub-county scale

• Quicker response for State Drought Task Forces and State Governors

• Increased spatial precision in drought emergency designations

• Better informed state and local decision making leading to more effectiveuse of available water and drought relief program resources



decisions

• Wider dissemination of drought information

• Improved understanding of drought effects at sub-county scale

• Quicker response for State Drought Task Forces and State Governors

• Increased spatial precision in drought emergency designations

• Better informed state and local decision making leading to more effectiveuse of available water and drought relief program resources

Predictions/Forecasts


Earth Observations

NASA Satellite Data:- AMSR-E Radiometer- QuikSCATScatterometer- MODIS Spectroradiometer

Surface Data:- Weather Station networks - Soil moisture : SCAN

Network, SNOTEL Network- Long-term stations- Surface radars

Earth Observations

NASA Satellite Data:- AMSR-E Radiometer- QuikSCATScatterometer- MODIS Spectroradiometer

Surface Data:- Weather Station networks - Soil moisture : SCAN

Network, SNOTEL Network- Long-term stations- Surface radars


Management Actions

National Integrated Drought Information

System

US Drought MonitorWeekly map and web portal

Analyses and ForecastEarly Drought DetectionDrought Spatial ExtentDrought State/Drought SeverityDrought duration

Decisions / ActionsDrought Plans ActivatedUrban Water RestrictionsDrought Assistance ProgramsAgricultural Choices for Water Conservation


Management Actions

National Integrated Drought Information

System

US Drought MonitorWeekly map and web portal

Analyses and ForecastEarly Drought DetectionDrought Spatial ExtentDrought State/Drought SeverityDrought duration

Decisions / ActionsDrought Plans ActivatedUrban Water RestrictionsDrought Assistance ProgramsAgricultural Choices for Water Conservation

NASA Water Management Project: National Drought Monitoring System


Water Monitoring- Soil moisture change- Precipitation frequency- Lake/reservoir change

Vegetation Monitoring- Vegetation Indices- Season start- Season length

Drought Indices- Palmer Drought index- Standardized Precipitation Index

- Stream flow precentile- Soil moisture percentile- Drought indicator blend


Water Monitoring- Soil moisture change- Precipitation frequency- Lake/reservoir change

Vegetation Monitoring- Vegetation Indices- Season start- Season length

Drought Indices- Palmer Drought index- Standardized Precipitation Index

- Stream flow precentile- Soil moisture percentile- Drought indicator blend

Nghiem/Verdin

Earth System Models

Decision Support Tool:-NOAA NCEP Eta weather model

Supporting Systems:Data Assimilation System:-NASA LIS

Current Land Surface Model:-Noah LSM

Future Land Surface Models:-Mosaic, Catchment/Unified LSMs



decisions

-Public has improved ability to plan daily activities due to improved weather forecasts out to 84 hours

-Public safety is improved through better knowledge of upcoming weather conditions

-Power supply reliability increased through adjustments made by power companies


Earth Observations Current:-MODIS snow cover assimilation

-NASA/NOAA CMAP (CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation)

-GOES Solar Radiation

-SNOTEL, Ameriflux, ARM/CART, OK Mesonet, SCAN in-situ networks (land surface conditions)

Potential Future:-AMSR (soil moisture)

-SRTM (topography)

-TRMM and GPM (precipitation)


Management ActionsNLDASE

Output and Analyses

-NOAA NCEP 12km Eta model DST 84-hour weather forecasts validated over standard NCEP verification regions with NCEP FVS.

-Verification statistics produced for surface and upper air forecasts of temperature, humidity, wind, and precipitation.

Decisions / Actions

-Formulation of weather forecasts issued to public

-Issuing of severe weather watches

-Changes to short term power management

-Changes to short term water management

Water Management: NOAA NCEP Weather Predictions Through NLDAS/LIS


Improved Weather Forecasts:-2m Temperature-2m Humidity

Improved Initial Conditions: -Snow Cover/Depth

-Soil Moisture

-Soil Temperature

-Canopy Water Content

Improved Forcing:-Solar Radiation

-Precipitation

Cosgrove

AFWA-NASA Land Information System (LIS)Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) – Leveraged Project• LIS Replaces AFWA’s AGRMET (Agriculture-Meteorology), Global Soil

Moisture and Temperature System• Department of Defense Decision Support Systems Including:

- Army mobility software and the Target Acquisition Weapons Software (TAWS)

- Night Vision Goggle Operational Weather Software (NOWS)

LIS Soil Moisture (1 km) AGRMET Soil Moisture

29-August-2005 at 1800 UTC Covering Afghanistan and Portions of Pakistan

•Improved precipitation, upper air, and surface weather forecasts

NOAA Eta DST

Initial Land SurfaceConditions for EtaWeather Model

NOAA Eta DST

NO

AA

Eta

DST

NO

AA

Eta DST

Noah LSM

EtaAtmospheric

Model

Multiple 84-Hour Eta Forecasts

DataAssimilation

DataProcessing

Forcing and Boundary Data

Noah LSM

NASA LIS

NASA LIS

NA

SA L

IS

NASA MODIS Snow Data

Multi-Year LIS Simulation

NA

SA LIS

Model Output

Obs

+

NASA-NOAA/NCEP Project: Land Information SystemCurrently Used (Research to Operations) in Global Forecast & Climate Forecast Systems

INPUTS & OUTPUTS IMPACTSOUTPUTS & OUTCOMES

NASA & Partner Research DST Partnership Opportunity Value & Benefits

NASA/GSFC Land Information System

Models: CLM, VIC, Noah, Mosaic, SSiB, HySSiB, CLSM, SAC-SMA, SNOW-17

Methods: Numerical integration, Data assimilation & validation

States: Surface temperature, Snow cover & depth, Soil temperature & moisture

Fluxes: Evaporation, Transpiration, Precipitation, Runoff

Weather Models & Tools

Models: GMAO, NCEP, NCAR, ECMWF, AGRMET, SNODAS

States: Cloud cover, Winds,Water Vapor, Temperature

Fluxes: Radiation, Precipitation

Observation Products & Platforms

Topography: USGS, SRTM, GPSVegetation: AVHRR, MODISWeather: GOES, NPOESSPrecipitation: TRMM, CMORPH, CMAP, PERSIANN, NEXRAD, NWS & cooperative gauges

Snow Cover: MODIS, SNOTEL

NOAA National Weather Service (NWS)River Forecast System (RFS)

Component Models: SAC-SMASNOW-17

Methods:Multi-sensor precipitation estimationNumerical integrationData assimilation & validation

Evaluation Metrics:Flood stageFlood event spatial/temporal accuracyFlood warning skill and false-alarmsFlash flood warning lead time

Critical Processes:Snowmelt Runoff conversionRainfall Runoff conversionRunoff routingStream & river routing

Critical Needs for Event Forecasting:Antecedent & evolving soil moistureAntecedent & evolving snow states

NOAA/NWS Operational Mandate

River discharge & stage prediction

NOAA/NWS Operational Products

Flood watches & warningsFlash flood prediction & warningDisaster response

Additional & Potential DST Benefits

Model & DST validationNWS RFC forecaster efficiencyPreparation for future datasets

models

states

NASA-NOAA RIVER FORECAST SYSTEM STUDY USING NASA PRODUCTS - ISS

Restrepo

NASA-NOAA River Forecast Project OverviewNOAA/OHD (Restrepo), NASA/MSFC (Limaye), NASA/GSFC (Peters-Lidard)

MODISCloud + SnowCoverAMSR-e SoilMoisture

NASA/GSFC’sLand InformationSystem (Water

Availability)

NWSRFSStreamflow

Potential EvaporationObserved/Forecast

Earth System Models

Land Surface Models:VIC: (1) Land Surface Model(2) Data Assimilation Target(3) Watershed Hydrology

Coupled L-A-O Models:(1) NSIPP/GMAO

Earth System Models

Land Surface Models:VIC: (1) Land Surface Model(2) Data Assimilation Target(3) Watershed Hydrology

Coupled L-A-O Models:(1) NSIPP/GMAO



decisions

Improved characterizations of: (a) current hydrologic conditions

(b) evolving water year outlook

Greater efficiency and reduced uncertainty in water allocation decisions

Improved communication of uncertainties in decisionmaking

Reduced conflict over water by stakeholders

Increased confidence in federal & state agency decision-making and policy



decisions

Improved characterizations of: (a) current hydrologic conditions

(b) evolving water year outlook

Greater efficiency and reduced uncertainty in water allocation decisions

Improved communication of uncertainties in decisionmaking

Reduced conflict over water by stakeholders

Increased confidence in federal & state agency decision-making and policy

Predictions/Forecasts


Earth Observations

Surface Temperature: Co-Op, MODIS, GMAO hindcasts/forecasts

Precipitation: Co-op, GMAO hindcasts/forecasts

Snow Cover: MODIS

Snow Quantity: NRCS Snotel, CADWR Snow Pillow

Surface Radiation/ET/Temp: MODIS

Earth Observations

Surface Temperature: Co-Op, MODIS, GMAO hindcasts/forecasts

Precipitation: Co-op, GMAO hindcasts/forecasts

Snow Cover: MODIS

Snow Quantity: NRCS Snotel, CADWR Snow Pillow

Surface Radiation/ET/Temp: MODIS


Management ActionsAnalyses

Two tracks, in parallel for research / operations:

real-time (current) nowcast/forecast evaluationRetrospective nowcast/forecast evaluationAssessment of skill contributed by ES Models & Observations relative to operational baseline.Decision Support Tools

VIC-OMS-WHFS ComboIn house BOR reservoir project model (Klamath)CADWR/SWP Delta Coordinated Operations model (at Joint Operations Center)

Decisions / ActionsWater Allocations for myriad uses, WY Type declarationsWater Banking (Klamath)Risk Communication


Management ActionsAnalyses

Two tracks, in parallel for research / operations:

real-time (current) nowcast/forecast evaluationRetrospective nowcast/forecast evaluationAssessment of skill contributed by ES Models & Observations relative to operational baseline.Decision Support Tools

VIC-OMS-WHFS ComboIn house BOR reservoir project model (Klamath)CADWR/SWP Delta Coordinated Operations model (at Joint Operations Center)

Decisions / ActionsWater Allocations for myriad uses, WY Type declarationsWater Banking (Klamath)Risk Communication

Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (U. Washington)


Seasonal Precipitation / Temperature Ensemble Forecasts

Streamflow ForecastsMonthly VolumesSummer RunoffUncertainties

Spatial Nowcasts & Forecasts:

Snow CoverSnow Water EquivalentSoil MoistureRunoffEvapotranspirationReservoir EvaporationCrop Water Demand


Seasonal Precipitation / Temperature Ensemble Forecasts

Streamflow ForecastsMonthly VolumesSummer RunoffUncertainties

Spatial Nowcasts & Forecasts:

Snow CoverSnow Water EquivalentSoil MoistureRunoffEvapotranspirationReservoir EvaporationCrop Water Demand

Lettenmaier

University of Washington Forecast Systemhttp://www.hydro.washington.edu

At UW, started testing hydrologic uses of real-time climate forecasts in 2000, for East Coast

Started producing water supply forecasts in 2001

Started testing snow assimilation techniques in 2003

Launched SW Monitor in 2005

NASA Water MgmtWestern US Seasonal Forecast (2006-2008)

http://www.hydro.washington.edu/

U. Washington Seasonal Forecast System: Spatial Products

SWEPrecip Temp Soil MoistureRunoff

Apr-06

May-06

Jun-06

Enhancing Water Management DSS with Spatio-temporal Mapping of Actual ET

Aggett

Integration of NASA Regional ET products into AWARDS/ET Toolbox and GSSHA DSTs

Hendrickx

(R. Allen, University of Idaho)(R. Allen, University of Idaho)

Current and Future Solicitations

REASoN CAN (Awards 2003) Runs FY04-FY09

Decisions CAN (Awards 6/05) Runs FY05-FY08


ROSES 2006 No solicitation planned





. . .

NASA ResearchSpacecraft –Launches in 2006and beyond

Contact information:

Lawrence FriedlApplied Sciences ProgramNASA Headquarters202-358-1599LFriedl @ nasa.gov

Documents

Water Management National Application - LCLUClcluc.umd.edu/sites/default/files/lcluc...0.pdf · FY07 Plan to assess value of Earth science data in EPA in EPA Non-point Source Water