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Weather and EmergenciesPreparation, Response,
Recovery
Northwest Response ForumDryden, Ontario
Geoff CoulsonWarning Preparedness MeteorologistApril 6, 2011
Page 2 – April 11, 2023
Contents
• Severe Weather Watch/Warning Program
• Warning Preparedness Meteorologist (WPM) Program
• Risk Communication
• Staying on Top of the Weather
• Future Weather Trends
Page 3 – April 11, 2023
Ontario Storm Prediction Centre - Toronto
Page 4 – April 11, 2023
Special Weather Statements
• Unusual weather (thunderstorms in January)
• Large areas of dense fog
• Approaching storm system still a few days away
• Weather which will approach but not meet weather warning criteria
• Summary of a recent weather system (i.e. snow amounts, tornado locations etc…)
Page 5 – April 11, 2023
Weather Watch vs. Weather Warning
• Weather Watch means there is the potential for severe weather
--- Be Alert
• Weather Warning means that severe weather will soon occur or is occurring
--- Take Action
Page 6 – April 11, 2023
Scale of a Summer Storm
One storm covering part of a countyOne storm covering part of a county
Page 7 – April 11, 2023
Scale of a Winter Storm
LX
Snow
HeavySnow
RainShowers
Freezing Rain
One storm covering thousands of square kilometres
Page 8 – April 11, 2023
Short-Fuse vs. Longer Lead Time
Short-Fuse…perhaps minutes…
Longer lead time…perhaps hours
Page 9 – April 11, 2023
Warning Preparedness Meteorologist (WPM) Program
• WPM Motto – Take full credit when the forecast is right– Blame Weather Centre when the forecast is
wrong
Page 10 – April 11, 2023
WPM’s – Environment Canada’s Face to Clients
Geoff Coulson Peter Kimbell
Page 11 – April 11, 2023
Roles of the WPM…
Client/Media Requests
WPM’s Weather Centre
Page 12 – April 11, 2023
Roles of the WPM
• Working with Emergency Management Organizations– Emergency Management Ontario– Municipalities/Townships/Regional Governments– Conservation Authorities– Provincial/National Parks
• Provision of presentations– Summer/winter severe weather– Staying on top of the weather– Review of recent weather in different parts of the province– Explanation of various weather bulletins
Page 13 – April 11, 2023
Roles of the WPM – Emergency Exercises
• Provision of mock weather bulletins for emergency exercises of both large scale (i.e. Nov. 2008 Trillium Response – Northwestern Ontario) and small scale (Town of Markham)
– Weather bulletins to “set the tone” in pre-exercise package– Weather bulletins presented in chronological order during
exercise
• Mock bulletins provided for “weather-centric” emergencies as well as other types of emergencies that are complicated by weather
Page 14 – April 11, 2023
Roles of the WPM – Storm Damage Surveys
• Tornado vs. Downburst• Rating of Damage on Fujita Damage Scale• Length/Width of Damage• Used to verify our Watches/Warnings• Used to learn more about severe spring and summer storms
Page 15 – April 11, 2023
Roles of the WPM
• WPM’s in contact with a variety of clients
• Feedback to EC– What we are doing well– Client concerns– Help shape new products/services
Page 16 – April 11, 2023
CANWARN Storm Spotters and Ontario Provincial Police
Page 17 – April 11, 2023
CANWARN Training Northwestern Ontario Spring 2011
• Week of June 13th
– June 13 Thunder Bay – 7 PM - McIntyre Building Rm. 195, Confederation College
– June 14 Fort Frances/EMO
– June 15 Kenora
– June 16 Dryden
• Training session about 3 hours long
• No cost involved
• Training includes– How thunderstorms form
– Severe vs. non-severe storms
– Reporting Procedures
– Safety
Page 18 – April 11, 2023
Targeted Weather Info
• Emergency Managers and Responders have live access to the Weather Centre 24/7 to access updated weather information related to emergencies caused by weather or complicated by weather
• Unlisted number to access Weather Centre 416 739-4420
• Warning Preparedness Meteorologists (WPM’s)
– Geoff Coulson Toronto – 416 739-4466 – [email protected]
– Peter Kimbell Ottawa – 613 949-8284 – [email protected]
•
Page 19 – April 11, 2023
Risk Communication
Page 20 – April 11, 2023
Risk Communication Challenges
• Storms with little or no warning or occurring overnight
• How bad will this storm really be?– Proper descriptive words– Historical context (i.e. worst storm in 5 years…)
• How best to describe potential impacts– Series of canned phrases– Phrases attuned to given situation
• Public’s perception of a given storm– May not match with EC warning criteria– Can differ greatly from community to community– Social media means EVERYONE can (and does) comment
Page 21 – April 11, 2023
Risk Communication Challenges
• Weather Centre may not have full appreciation of significance of a given event
– Very localized– Difficult to get precipitation amount estimates
• Example – March 6 to 8 2011 Snowfall in Thunder Bay area
• Official Snow Totals for March 6, 7 and 8 in Thunder Bay between 20 and 25 cm
• Unofficial Snow Totals from surrounding area (Kakabeka Falls, Pearl etc..) on the order of 40 cm or more
Images Courtesy of the WeatherNetwork
Page 22 – April 11, 2023
Need to Tap into Social Media
• Twitter• Facebook• Blogs• Discussion Lists• Web Cams• Explosion of information available to be used in real-time
by the Weather Centre to better comprehend weather impacts in local communities
• Need to develop more efficient/effective ways to find, quality assure weather comments and factor them into current and forecast conditions
Page 23 – April 11, 2023
Weather Centre of the Future
• Public Desk
• Marine Desk
• Severe Weather Desk
• Social Media Desk?– Information from clients– Information to clients
Page 24 – April 11, 2023
2010 Tornado Event – June 6 Leamington
• 4 tornadoes confirmed in the Harrow, Leamington area of Essex county
• 1 F2, 2 F1, 1 F0
• Tornadoes occurred around 3 AM
• Public concerns about notification for nocturnal storms
Page 25 – April 11, 2023
Leamington Tornadoes – Public Alerting
If the warnings go out at 2:30 AM…how do I hear about them?
Page 26 – April 11, 2023
2010 Tornado Event – June 23 Midland
• Event Occurred between 6:15 and 6:30 PM
• No lead time on Warnings– First warning issued around 6:40 PM
• Hits Trailer Park at south end of Town
• Rated F2 (peak winds 180 to 240 km/h)
Page 27 – April 11, 2023
Impacts: Snow Squalls Dec 5 to 9 2010
December 7, 2010West Lorne
From theweathernetwork.com
Page 28 – April 11, 2023
Impacts: Snow Squalls Dec 5 to 9 2010
December 8, 2010London
From Twitter
Page 29 – April 11, 2023
“402 Snow Squall Event” – Dec 12 to 15 2010
• Multi-day event
• Long-lived whiteout conditions…snow accumulation not the main issue
• Plows had to be pulled off the highway
• Many people used to hearing Snow Squall Warnings
• Most Snow Squall warnings mention whiteouts, blowing snow, large accumulations resulting in dangerous driving conditions
Page 30 – April 11, 2023
“402 Event”
• Difficult to impart in the warnings how “out of the ordinary” and particularly dangerous the “402” Event was even as it unfolded
• 1 in 30 year event?
• Full scope of event not understood/ignored by some
• Road barriers moved by motorists so they could continue their trip
• Failure to understand or failure to communicate?
Page 31 – April 11, 2023
Groundhog Day Storm – Wed Feb 2 2011
• Not quite what was forecast for much of Southwestern & Southcentral Ontario
• Wiarton, Hamilton, portions of Eastern Ontario had significant snowfall and blowing snow
• But worst was over in many areas before 6 AM Feb 2
• Many cancellations based on storm lasting longer
• Difficult to “pull back” once initial statements out (starting Sunday)
• The words “near-blizzard” and “blizzard” very rare/evocative
Page 32 – April 11, 2023
Warning Program Re-engineering• Warning Re-Engineering Program Underway
– Total overhaul to warning system▪ Bulletin preparation – content - significance▪ Bulletin dissemination
• Want to differentiate level of severity of a given storm to key clients and the public
• Vigilance Map…tiered approach to warnings…– Green - OK– Yellow - Warning– Orange – Significant Warning– Red – Rare, Particularly Dangerous Warning
Page 33 – April 11, 2023
Warning Impact Statements
• Link impact statements to level of message• Strong tornadoes could cause serious injury or death• Intense snow squalls causing zero visibilities and
extremely dangerous driving conditions• Freezing Rain/High Winds resulting in widespread power
failures• Snow resulting in potential office/school closures• Short duration, high intensity rainfall could produce…
– difficulty driving/hydroplaning– Localized flooding
Page 34 – April 11, 2023
Warning Program Re-engineering
• This is a multi-year project
• Will be looking to engage key clients in this process
• Client feedback will be important in assessing/understanding weather impacts and building a database of what type of weather constitute the various weather warning tiers (i.e. green, yellow, orange, red)
• In the tiered warning system the “402” Event would likely have constituted a level red given its relative rarity and severity
Page 35 – April 11, 2023
Staying on top of the Weather
Page 36 – April 11, 2023
Internet Access to Weather Info
• Weatheroffice.gc.ca– current watches, warnings, advisories, special
weather statements– current conditions, 24 hour trends, 7 day
forecasts– Radar imagery– Much more…
Page 37 – April 11, 2023
WarningWarningBattleboardBattleboard
Page automaticallyPage automaticallyrefreshes every 10 refreshes every 10
minutesminutes
Page 38 – April 11, 2023
Weatheradio• Continuous broadcast of weather info
• Line of sight broadcast…trees, hills may disrupt signal
• Standby mode Tone Alert when Warnings issued
• Specific Area MEessaging – SAME - Get the Warnings for YOUR area
• Special frequencies…so require a special receiver
Page 39 – April 11, 2023
E-mails of Svr Wx Watches/Warnings
• E-mail of watches/warnings available from Environment Canada for key decision-makers
Page 40 – April 11, 2023
Future Weather Trends
Page 41 – April 11, 2023
Ontario – 4 Full Seasons of Weather
Page 42 – April 11, 2023
Page 43 – April 11, 2023
More Severe Weather?
• More awareness by the public– 24 Hr news cycle– Numerous shows about severe weather
• More reports– Cameras everywhere– Plus YouTube, blogging, tweeting etc…
• More people in various parts of the province
• More infrastructure (some of it aging…)
• “Perhaps in recent years we are finally getting a better understanding of the amount of summer severe weather that actually occurs in Ontario”
Page 44 – April 11, 2023
Climate Change Impacts in the Great Lakes Basin
• Research continues to better understand what changes will occur in the coming decades
Page 45 – April 11, 2023
Precipitation
• Increase in intensity and frequency of heavy rainfalls
• Increase in frequency and severity of drought
• More precipitation in the form of rain/freezing rain as opposed to snow during the winter
• Greater chance of “ice storm” type events
Page 46 – April 11, 2023
Temperature
• Increase in annual/seasonal temperature
• Increase in number of hot days (T >= 32 Deg C) and heat waves
• Increase in number of heat-related mortalities
• Decrease in number of extreme cold days and extreme minimum temperatures
Page 47 – April 11, 2023
Great Lakes
• Increase in water temperatures (increase in lake effect snow?)
• Decline in water levels
Page 48 – April 11, 2023
More Extremes?
• Thunderstorms?• Tornadoes?• Snowstorms?
Page 49 – April 11, 2023
![Temperate deciduous forest [Meteorologist] Ariana](https://img.pdfslide.net/doc/110x75/56649dab5503460f94a9a551/temperate-deciduous-forest-meteorologist-ariana.jpg)
